Front Page: How the Top 5 Twins Home Run Hitters from 2019 Could Fare with a "De-Juiced" Ball

[Matthew Lenz]

In September, MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred was quoted as saying “We need to make a change to the baseball” in an exclusive interview with Forbes. This article will look at how a “de-juiced” baseball will impact the Twins top five home run hitters from the 2019 record breaking season.If Major League Baseball does in fact “de-juice” the ball, then we can assume that nearly every player and team will see a reduction in the number of home runs hit. Specifically, this article will break down how much a “de-juiced” baseball might impact Nelson Cruz, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario, and Mitch Garver in 2020.

 

For being one of just 57 members in the 400 home run club, you might find it surprising that Nelson Cruz posted a career high home run per flyball rate (HR/FB) in 2019. His HR/FB rate of 31.3-percent was 10 points higher than the average rate of his career. He did this while maintaining a similar fly ball (FB) percentage that he’s had throughout his career, which would imply some home run regression in 2020. That said, his 2019 average launch angle (LA) was greater than his career average and similar to his 2018 average where he hit 37 bombas. Being the professional hitter that Nelson Cruz has been throughout his career, I wouldn’t expect too much regression in 2020.

 

After emerging as a 2019 breakout candidate during his 2018 season, Max Kepler exploded onto the scene and quickly became one of the best all-around right fielders in the game. He has a similar story to “The Boomstick” without the track record to support an encore performance in 2020. In his last two seasons, he had almost the exact same FB percentage but he doubled his HR/FB rate last season. This could be partially explained by an increase in LA and is what should give Twins fans hope that he will see just a small regression in 2020. That said, he never had numbers like these in minors so I would expect something more like 2018 next season.

 

Did you know that of players with 400 or more at-bats, Miguel Sano led the league in HR/FB rate? If that doesn’t scream regression, then consider this: His 36.6-percent HR/FB rate is the second highest for a single season since Fangraphs started tracking batted ball data in 2002. He maintained his career FB rate and LA, so I would expect him to see the second biggest regression of the top five. Keep in mind he missed 57 games in 2019 so he could still hit 30 plus home runs but at a less efficient clip.

 

For all the flack Rosario has gotten for the second half of 2019 he may be the Twin to see the least amount of regression next season. Unlike the players mentioned before him, all the metrics (HR/FB rate, FB rate, EV, LA) that would indicate regression were right along his career numbers. Again, we can expect all players to see some drop but I wouldn’t expect Rosario’s to be more than whatever norm is established with a “de-juiced” ball.

 

It’s hard to make a full judgement on Mitch Garver as he’s just finished his first full Major League season. Although he’s always been a flyball hitter, he never had anything close to a HR/FB rate of 29.0-percent in the minors. Per Brooks Baseball, Garver hit all but five home runs off of “hard pitches” in 2019 which means he could see a significant increase in off-speed pitches in 2020. Of all the candidates mentioned in this article, my money is on Garver seeing the biggest regression next year.

 

Are you worried about a “de-juiced” baseball? How do you see it impacting the Twins or other teams around the league?

 

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[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Like you, I would say Eddie would be little affected by a switch back to a standard baseball in a hypothetical 2020 season. Sano hits the ball a mile, Kepler has a great level swing that produces great backspin, and Cruz is just a professional hitter plain and simple, so hopefully not those guys either. Garver has a great eye for the strike zone but I’d be most concerned with Garver’s production dropping off next year, dejuiced ball or not.

[mikelink45]

I expect all to be impacted.  If Rosario is the least impacted it will make all those who wanted to trade him and complained about him look bad!  Go Eddie!. 

 

I think Sano hits them so far he will not be impacted, but yes Kepler will be by a large amount and he will have to take lessons from Arraez on more contact.  He can do it.  

 

Cruz is do for some aging and with a dejuiced ball it might be more than we all want to see. Go Nelson, I love to see someone of senior baseball status keep it going.

 

How about Polanco - I think this might hurt his power the most.

[Mr. Brooks]

I expect all to be impacted. If Rosario is the least impacted it will make all those who wanted to trade him and complained about him look bad! Go Eddie!.

 

I think Sano hits them so far he will not be impacted, but yes Kepler will be by a large amount and he will have to take lessons from Arraez on more contact. He can do it.

 

Cruz is do for some aging and with a dejuiced ball it might be more than we all want to see. Go Nelson, I love to see someone of senior baseball status keep it going.

 

How about Polanco - I think this might hurt his power the most.

I don't think HR power is on anyone's list of critiques when it comes to Rosario, so I'm not sure how that will make anyone look bad.

His flaws are on base percentage, plate discipline, baserunning, and defense. I'm not sure juicing or dejuicing the ball fixes any of those.

[Richard Swerdlick]

Great article. I would like to see MLB stop playing games with the baseball. I hope they find one this year they can stick with and also not change it for the post season. 

[MMMordabito]

I think they should call the 2019 ball the "La Stella" ball.

 

Tommy La Stella before 2019:  947 PA 10 HR

Tommy La Stella in 2019:  321 PA 16 HR

 

 

[MMMordabito]

 

How about Polanco - I think this might hurt his power the most.

 

I don't know.  Luis Arraez may be turned into Felix Fermin in HR accumulation.

[PDX Twin]

This is useful, but how about an analysis of how many home runs were more than 15 feet beyond the fence? That would, I think, tell us more about the likely transformation of homeruns into outs for each player, under the (invalid) assumption that they hit the ball equally well next year.

[Nine of twelve]

It's my understanding that the primary factor in the increase in the number of home runs last year was due not to changes in average exit velocity or in average launch angle or in the hardness of the ball, but rather to the decreased air resistance of the ball. This means that the distances of home runs hit would be the most important variable to consider. A player who hit a lot of dingers less than 400 feet will probably see a large regression. A player who hit a lot of them more than 400 feet will probably regress very little.

[Matthew Lenz]

 

This is useful, but how about an analysis of how many home runs were more than 15 feet beyond the fence? That would, I think, tell us more about the likely transformation of homeruns into outs for each player, under the (invalid) assumption that they hit the ball equally well next year.

 

It's my understanding that the primary factor in the increase in the number of home runs last year was due not to changes in average exit velocity or in average launch angle or in the hardness of the ball, but rather to the decreased air resistance of the ball. This means that the distances of home runs hit would be the most important variable to consider. A player who hit a lot of dingers less than 400 feet will probably see a large regression. A player who hit a lot of them more than 400 feet will probably regress very little.

 

I do agree that distance would be a helpful tool to analyze here as well, although I think we can make a decent analysis based on HR/FB rate and FB rate as well. Obviously, launch angle/exit velo has nothing to do with a juiced ball but it does impact the travel of the ball which was my reason for mentioning the metric. If the swing is different then maybe helps explain some of the added power, but if the swing is mostly the same, then what else could it be? I know there is more than one possible answer to that question.

[etwink]

I think that we’d all love to look at a couple averaging stats and make a judgment, but I have to agree that the only way to make a firm assessment would be to review all the HRs hit and make assessments that anything within X feet would be an out and do the sums.  LA, EV and everything else less important than if a guy’s homers were all wall-scratchers and he’s now going to get less carry on the ball.

[Nate Palmer]

Thanks Matthew! I know this is a thought that has crossed my mind this offseason. I do wonder where exit velocity plays into bombas, the ball, and 2020. If it does mean anything that Cruz and Sano should be safe as the #2 and #3 in MLB last year. 

 

Although you go down that leaderboard a bit and begin to see some very non-homer type hitters so who knows. 

[Twodogs]

I would think hit distance would be the biggest indicator of regression. In fact a different ball may be harder to hit all together, if the ball isn't so smooth and hard then the pitchers will be able to get the ball to move more and it's possible that the overall amount of contact will be down. They better watch what they play with as far as changing things.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Kepler’s home runs per fly ball increased in part because he started pulling the ball more. Prior to 2019 he pulled fly balls 24% to 33%. In 2019 he pulled fly balls 41% of the time.

 

Kepler’s average home run distance in 2019 was 392 feet. The right field fence is 328 feet. Even if he lost 5% of the distance traveled with a non-juiced ball 372 feet is plenty if he keeps pulling the ball 41%.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/max-kepler/12144/splits-tool?position=OF&splitArr=12&strgroup=season&statgroup=3&startDate=all&endDate=all&filter=&statType=player&autoPt=true&players=&sort=NaN,1

 

https://www.mlb.com/player/max-kepler-596146

 

I’m not convinced Kepler will be as heavily impacted as the OP states.

[Original_JB]

Thing to keep in mind with the whole 'air resistance' of the ball going back up, is pitchers will also see an uptick in their ball movement as the higher resistance interacts with the air on the way to the plate.  So it won't be just the hitting for distance that will decrease, but also the ability to get good, squared up contact with the ball will also be harder to achieve.