Front Page: With Twins Likely Out on Donaldson, So What's the Plan Now?

[USAFChief]

 

Dude, f- Donaldson.

 

Based on his history we'd expect roughly 2 of 4 productive seasons, if that.

For $110 million more impactful moves can be made.

 

At least with Wheeler & some of the other guys discussed, it was more of a sure bet in terms of positive impact.

 

Let's run out the status quo & see how it goes, seriously.  To grow from within, it's more fun that way.

 

I like FO's progress so far

Please explain.

 

Donaldson, 2015: 158 games, .939 OPS

2016: 155 games, .953 OPS

2017: 113 games, .944 OPS

2018: 52 games, .801 OPS

2019: 155 games. .900 OPS

 

He got hurt, and it tanked 2018. It happened, sure, but he's been an extremely durable player outside of that. There's zero reason--based on his history--to think you'd get only 2 of 4 productive seasons, "if that." 

 

Also, let us know what "impactful" move you'd rather they make with that $110. Take on David Price's contract, which Boston will give you for nothing in return?

 

 

[tony&rodney]

Josh Donaldson is a risk. However, he is less of a risk than any of the other options discussed this winter. The Twins are only on the hook for slightly over $20 million for next year. The money is available. If JD doesn't want to play for Minnesota or the front office has him evaluated much lower for some reason, fine; we have to agree to disagree (unhappily) with their decision. If the front office believes Donaldson has value, then they need to force him to make the decision. The Twins should have the best offer.

Price, Sale, Archer, Gray, Ray, and others are just not seeming to be very balanced decisions based upon multiple risk factors, such as price, injury, prospect cost, and statistical peripherals. I would not trade any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Graterol, Balazovic, or Duran for that crew. If there are other combinations that work using lesser valued prospects, do it.

In June or July there will be a new alignment of values for available pitchers and the prospects. This is looking like the time for a decision.

Mitch Moreland for @$4M and Alex Wood for @$4M are my only remaining options. There is a good chance that some of the Twins young prospects will provide the performance and value we are hoping for this summer. They will be watched closely this Spring.

[Don Walcott]

 

As for what to do next? I honestly think it’s probably time for the FO to do an interview with the press and let everyone know what is going on. They’ve turned a ton of people off this winter. Let everyone know that your plan is to start one of your young guns at 1b and that there will be an open competition for your 3-5 spots in the rotation and name some guys you think have a chance. Bailey, Graterol, Thorpe, Dobnak, Alcala.

At this point it’s obvious we have no chance to add anyone impactful. The FO is unwilling to push the envelope as it pertains to dollar offers to free agents and they are not trading anyone in the top 10 of our system.

Bottom line. Just tell the truth for once

Honesty and transparency would be nice.

 

In addition to the above, I'd like to hear from the FO whether they were really "in" on the top free agents, and if so, why we were unsuccessful. That's probably way too much to ask. But we're all speculating here, and not knowing is causing a rift between Twins fans who truly believe in this FO and those who are skeptical or even cynical -- and it's confusing to everyone in between.

 

Even if I don't agree with their reasoning, it would be better hearing what that reasoning was than to have these arguments about what we think has been going on, based on the scraps and tidbits we hear from reporters. And I've come to distrust a lot of the reporting that is done during the off-season as reporters being used to spin information for one camp or another.

 

All we really know is that the FO did not land any of the top free agents (other than our own QO to Odo). I can't really get behind them if they don't tell us why this happened. With the information we have,I can only judge this off-season by the results. And the results, so far, are not good.

 

That being said, I could be won over by some honesty and transparency. I'm still happy about 2019, and optimistic that our core talent, including at least 7 homegrown position players and a few pitchers under team control who all may improve on last year, may make the playoffs interesting in 2020. But I'd like to know why we didn't supplement this roster, and what's the plan.

[Battle ur tail off]

Exactly. Let's hear your plan. And I don't want to hear you tried. Because results show you didn't. Go ahead and tell us Graterol has progressed and we're giving him the ball. Tell us that you've been working with Kiriloff at 1B and he will be the starter. Tell us no one is off limits in trade talks to improve the club.

 

Use the talent in trades, or use it on the field. Let's go. This core is too good to not attempt to take the next step. If it comes down to us buying low-end dumpster types, I always think it's better to use your own guys. Why bring in old guys that are at best marginal and pay them when you can use your own that at least have potential and aren't going to cost anything? Go big or go home. 

[drivlikejehu]

The problem is that they can't get into specific negotiation details. That would only make it even harder for them to attract players, and it's already rather difficult.

 

The only thing they can really do - and should do - is admit that they didn't achieve their goals in free agency. They've implied it already and it's plainly obvious, but still I think it would be the appropriate course of action. 

[Vanimal46]

The problem is that they can't get into specific negotiation details. That would only make it even harder for them to attract players, and it's already rather difficult.

 

The only thing they can really do - and should do - is admit that they didn't achieve their goals in free agency. They've implied it already and it's plainly obvious, but still I think it would be the appropriate course of action.

Concur. I would gain more respect for the FO if they say we had a clear goal after the WS and failed. Fans will never get the full negotiation details. I frankly don’t care anymore who they were in or not in on. Just admit it was a failure and move on.

[twins_89]

The White Sox continue to inch closer while the Twins stand still. It would be understandable if we were resource constrained, but that has not been the case. The Twins came into the off-season with few holes to fill and $70M to spend, but with Spring Training about a month away the best case scenario is we will be about the same as last season (that's if our bargain bin starters work out).

[nicksaviking]

 

The problem is that they can't get into specific negotiation details. That would only make it even harder for them to attract players, and it's already rather difficult.

 

The only thing they can really do - and should do - is admit that they didn't achieve their goals in free agency. They've implied it already and it's plainly obvious, but still I think it would be the appropriate course of action. 

 

Whether they openly say they didn't meet their free agency goals or not, they'll probably have to wait until Donaldson officially is off the table, even though they clearly didn't meet their goals considering Donaldson isn't a pitcher. 

 

I want them to move on with trades, but that also probably requires a Donaldson decision as well. Because if by some miracle Donaldson does sign, it wouldn't preclude the Twins from still trading for pitching, but it may impact who the Twins are willing to part with as a guy like Rosario and his arbitration pay and Sano and his lessened positional relevance may be more tolerable for the Twins to move.

[cmoss84]

Anyone ever play poker? 

 

You ever tell people what you are going for?

 

The FO telling people we are going for an impact signing is the equivalent to telling people at the poker table, "I hope I get a really good hand."

 

Of course you hope things work out. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they don't. Not sure why people on here expect the FO to lay out their entire blueprint. 

 

 

[cmoss84]

 

The problem is that they can't get into specific negotiation details. That would only make it even harder for them to attract players, and it's already rather difficult.

 

The only thing they can really do - and should do - is admit that they didn't achieve their goals in free agency. They've implied it already and it's plainly obvious, but still I think it would be the appropriate course of action. 

yup. this. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Anyone ever play poker? 

 

You ever tell people what you are going for?

 

The FO telling people we are going for an impact signing is the equivalent to telling people at the poker table, "I hope I get a really good hand."

 

Of course you hope things work out. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they don't. Not sure why people on here expect the FO to lay out their entire blueprint. 

 

No, it's not. Everyone knew they would try to add pitching. It's not even close to the same thing.

 

I do agree with the last part though. I don't think they should lay out their plans in any kind of detail.

[Musk21]

They're also not going to throw Hill and Bailey under the bus by saying something like "We struck out on some (all?) of the players that we had targeted, so had to sign whatever scraps were left...."

 

[USAFChief]

 

They're also not going to throw themselves under the bus by saying something like "We struck out on some (all?) of the players that we had targeted, so had to sign whatever scraps were left...."

ftfy

[Oxtung]

By the time Graterol, Balazovic and/or Duran are dominant enough (assuming they ever reach that level of pitching) to lead us forward in the playoffs, Cruz, Sano, Rosario, Odorizzi will be gone. It's entirely plausible that Buxton, Berrios and Rogers are gone too. There in lies the struggle with building a team without FA or Trades. Everything must hit all at once.

 

Given the self imposed constraints of not trading or signing top tier talent the Twins need to be phenomenal at drafting and developing talent. Not good. Not Great. Phenomenal. Currently the farm system is in the 7-12 range and that isn't going to cut it. 

 

So my plan for moving forward is to trade Sano and Rosario for prospects, eating as much salary as I can to get back the best returns I can. I would try to sign Berrios to an extension, even if that isn't as team friendly as they would like. If that fails, I would look to trade him next offseason.

 

Perhaps most importantly, I would take that $20M we don't spend annually, and put it back into identifying and improving prospects. I would put money into creating databases with current data streams like Statcast and I would have an analytics department that is larger than the next 2 combined. Additionally, I would be putting money into developing the next technology that can create a new data stream that would be proprietary to the Twins. Once that technology is ready I would pay colleges to install it in their stadiums as well as at the major amateur showcases. Finally, if I thought there was a minor league coach that I thought was the best at what they do, I would go get that person even if it means over paying significantly. 

 

If we aren't going to use FA and Trades to obtain top tier talent, then we must be significantly better at everything else.

[rdehring]

I read somewhere late last night that the Twins offerred Donaldson 4/110 and he signed with Atlanta for 4/105.  Is that true?  If it is, there are a lot of comments over these 7 pages that should be retracted as the Twins did exactly what many were screaming for and the player still went elsewhere.

[Vanimal46]

They're also not going to throw Hill and Bailey under the bus by saying something like "We struck out on some (all?) of the players that we had targeted, so had to sign whatever scraps were left...."

They’ve both been around the game long enough, and hopefully have the self-awareness to know they weren’t a team’s 1st, or, 5th option to sign.

[howeda7]

 

As for what to do next? I honestly think it’s probably time for the FO to do an interview with the press and let everyone know what is going on. They’ve turned a ton of people off this winter. Let everyone know that your plan is to start one of your young guns at 1b and that there will be an open competition for your 3-5 spots in the rotation and name some guys you think have a chance. Bailey, Graterol, Thorpe, Dobnak, Alcala.

At this point it’s obvious we have no chance to add anyone impactful. The FO is unwilling to push the envelope as it pertains to dollar offers to free agents and they are not trading anyone in the top 10 of our system.

Bottom line. Just tell the truth for once

I wouldn't hold my breath. Along with negotiating with FA's, clear communication does not appear to be Falvey's strength. Perhaps the issues are related.

 

For example, letting Molitor find out Eddie Escobar was traded by watching MLB network. We've gotten "gee I wish I hadn't said "impact" pitching". I think that's as close to an explanation/apology as we're going to get.

[howeda7]

 

I read somewhere late last night that the Twins offerred Donaldson 4/110 and he signed with Atlanta for 4/105.  Is that true?  If it is, there are a lot of comments over these 7 pages that should be retracted as the Twins did exactly what many were screaming for and the player still went elsewhere.

I've read that (obviously he isn't signed yet). I've also read we offered 4/$90 and haven't budged. I'm not sure which is true, but I know which one is more likely based on history.

[howeda7]

 

I am not making the freakin offers.  I am just telling you something and I am convinced you still do not understand it.  I think the FO gets what I am saying and you don't

I understand what you're saying and I disagree.

 

It would seem the FO doesn't agree with you or they wouldn't make these offers and stay engaged on these players for days and weeks on end if they knew they had zero chance of signing them.

[USAFChief]

 

I read somewhere late last night that the Twins offerred Donaldson 4/110 and he signed with Atlanta for 4/105.  Is that true?  If it is, there are a lot of comments over these 7 pages that should be retracted as the Twins did exactly what many were screaming for and the player still went elsewhere.

You should probably do some research before posting stuff like this.

[howeda7]

 

Concur. I would gain more respect for the FO if they say we had a clear goal after the WS and failed. Fans will never get the full negotiation details. I frankly don’t care anymore who they were in or not in on. Just admit it was a failure and move on.

They can't go into details. But if they made top offers on one or more guys, they can certainly say that without disclosing who. Or they can leak it through Doogie, etc.

[Major League Ready]

 

By the time Graterol, Balazovic and/or Duran are dominant enough (assuming they ever reach that level of pitching) to lead us forward in the playoffs, Cruz, Sano, Rosario, Odorizzi will be gone. It's entirely plausible that Buxton, Berrios and Rogers are gone too. There in lies the struggle with building a team without FA or Trades. Everything must hit all at once.

 

 

The Twins roster presently has 10 players acquired through free agency and 4 through trades. So, more than half the roster is a product of free agency and trades. $71M in payroll is committed to free agents next year. Does this sound like a team built totally from within?  

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Anyone ever play poker? 

 

You ever tell people what you are going for?

 

The FO telling people we are going for an impact signing is the equivalent to telling people at the poker table, "I hope I get a really good hand."

 

Of course you hope things work out. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they don't. Not sure why people on here expect the FO to lay out their entire blueprint. 

Maybe because the organization has lied to their fans for multiple years? Maybe because their "impact" pitching signings are the equivalent of a 1988 olds cutlass supreme?

 

Maybe because the sentiment around the league and from their fans is that they are cheap and people are growing tired of it?

 

I don't know. Transparency would buy them some more rope or at least time with their fans IMO.

 

They don't have to lay out their plan. But they should address the fans, it's been pretty comical and borderline asinine how this offseason has played out so far. When they end up striking out on Donaldson now, they are going to have to answer some tough questions. I doubt the TC media takes them to task, but they most assuredly should do so. 

[howeda7]

As for moves from this point, I don't think there's much to do. I'd like to see them make a trade for Price if they can get the Red Sox to eat a significant chunk of 2021 and 2022. I'd like to see them sign an IF'er, but the prospects are getting snapped up. Either Ginnett (sp) from the Reds or Doz works for me. I know some don't like Arreaz at 3B, but I don't mind it.

 

I don't think a bigger trade (Archer, Boyd, Gray etc.) is in the cards. We won't give up top 10 prospects and you're not getting any of them without one or more. I don't see any of those teams being that motivated to make a deal.

 

That said, I don't think any of the above will happen. Outside of a minor league deal or two, I think what we have now is it.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

The Twins roster presently has 10 players acquired through free agency and 4 through trades. So, more than half the roster is a product of free agency and trades. $71M in payroll is committed to free agents next year. Does this sound like a team built totally from within?  

 

The main core is all homegrown guys. And that is a GOOD thing. It's the only way for the team to be successful. Heck their whole lineup, except Cruz has come through the system. 

[howeda7]

 

Maybe because the organization has lied to their fans for multiple years? Maybe because their "impact" pitching signings are the equivalent of a 1988 olds cutlass supreme?

 

Maybe because the sentiment around the league and from their fans is that they are cheap and people are growing tired of it?

 

I don't know. Transparency would buy them some more rope or at least time with their fans IMO.

 

They don't have to lay out their plan. But they should address the fans, it's been pretty comical and borderline asinine how this offseason has played out so far. When they end up striking out on Donaldson now, they are going to have to answer some tough questions. I doubt the TC media takes them to task, but they most assuredly should do so. 

I'm guessing Falvey won't be doing Q&A at Twins Fest or the Caravan.

[Oxtung]

 

The Twins roster presently has 10 players acquired through free agency and 4 through trades. So, more than half the roster is a product of free agency and trades. $71M in payroll is committed to free agents next year. Does this sound like a team built totally from within?  

 

Please go back and re-read what I wrote read. The very next sentence which you opted not to quote was:

 

 

Given the self imposed constraints of not trading or signing top tier talent the Twins need to be phenomenal at drafting and developing talent.

 

EDIT: replaced "read" with "wrote"

[nicksaviking]

 

 

Dougie ain't letting us kill this thread yet.

[SmellEm]

 

 

 

Dougie ain't letting us kill this thread yet.

 

This 100% reads as Donaldson trying to use the Twins as leverage to get Atlanta to up their offer. 

[rdehring]

 

You should probably do some research before posting stuff like this.

Why, I read it right here on Twins Daily, in one of the many threads dealing with Donaldson.  Just can't remember which it was and really don't care to go back and spend an hour looking for it.