Front Page: 4 Logical Trades That Would Improve the Twins' Rotation

[mikelink45]

The commentators have covered all the salient issues.  My biggest NO is the Sales trade.  I think Boston is realizing they overpaid for an arm that will not hold up. I see that as a losing proposition.

 

Archer looks good.  I am not big on putting Graterol in any trade.  We always need pitchers so putting our most promising pitcher in a trade seems to be self defeating.  

 

Gardy likes ex-Twins so he might jump at a Boyd trade to get some bats.  Rooker, Raley, and Romero would be my 3Rs trade bait for Boyd.

 

Thor does not get Buxton and Kiriloff.  That is too much.  Buxton and a lower level prospect or nothing.

 

Keep thinking - your article is good hot stove fodder. 

[jmlease1]

Prospect deals are hard. Fans like us usually overvalue our prospects to some degree and we all live in fear of dealing someone who will almost immediately turn around and make a huge leap, becoming a perennial all-star, while the player we traded for busts out. I'll admit it, I get wobbly on that one too.

 

But the deal for Thor is a flat-out no for me, and I don't think I'm being a Twins homer on this one. Buxton is an elite CF, whose only issue is staying healthy. Moving on from him means stretching Kepler in CF for next season, and hoping Royce Lewis is ready in a hurry and can handle the position switch. So there's that issue on why it's a bad play for the Twins from that aspect.

 

but throwing in Kirilloff is exactly why this is a huge no. He's almost MLB ready right now and is an elite hitting prospect (yes, his stock is going to drop after nagging injuries last year, but this is a guy who was a top 20 prospect in all of baseball going into last year). This would be a monster win for the Mets (trading from an area of strength) and a desperation play for the Twins (screwing up another spot, paying too much) all to get a guy who you're hoping was unlucky last year, can get back to keeping the ball in the park at an elite level, can crank up his Ks again to be an elite pitcher and not just a good one. 

 

I don't love the idea of dealing Buxton, period, but I'm sure as hell not giving up one of our top 3 prospects along with him for a guy who need a bounceback. Of course the Mets would take this deal. This is probably the deal the Mets proposed at the deadline.

 

 

 

 

[jorgenswest]

 

 

Gardy likes ex-Twins so he might jump at a Boyd trade to get some bats.  Rooker, Raley, and Romero would be my 3Rs trade bait for Boyd.

 

 

Feels like a fair trade but I think the Tigers could get quite a bit more. Trading for starting pitching is going to hurt. This one doesn't hurt too much.

[DocBauer]

No to Boyd. I just think that's too much for a guy who has flashed half a season. I know we're talking potential breakthrough, but I need more convincing.

 

No to Sale. Even with cash back I don't like the terms and age and elbow, especially for that package.

 

Yes to the Archer deal. Maybe not exactly Rooker and Gordon, but something similar. He is a very interesting bounce back who could add a lot. But he's coming off a bad year and a not so great year before that. While very good, IMO, he was never an ACE. I'd absolutely take him, but I don't think a rebuilding Pittsburgh has a lot of leverage for some huge demand.

 

Thor has the most potential, but I just don't know if I can do Buxton AND Kirilloff. Maybe I'm splitting hairs, but I'd feel better if it was Larnach and then a 3rd top 20 included. While there is a part of me that still has some "prove it" thought on Thor, his upside is absolutely the biggest.

 

I literally sit here and read and re-read the numbers for Gray and Ray and wonder at age 28 why they aren't as big or bigger targets than those listed here? Ray in particular might be available with Arizona signing Bumgarner.

 

And then I look closer at Alex Wood and what he's done and I can't figure out why the Twins, or anyone else, haven't jumped all over him. Are the medicals on him that bad? Also 28yo, he doesn't cost any prospects and healthy, is probably the equivalent to Ray, Gray, Archer and Boyd.

 

If I had my choice, slightly lessen but sweeten the pot for Syndergaard, or go sign Wood who has the potential to equal Odorizzi or Pineda.

[TopGunn#22]

GREAT article !!  I've been banging the drum for a Sale trade and before that Thor.  We have enough firepower.  We need an ACE to front our starting rotation.  For 2020 and beyond.  First---Chris Sale.  He's only 30-years old with 5 years and $145 (29-mil per year) left on his contract.  I don't give up Graterol.  I think he will work out.  I offer to accept the ENTIRE contract for Sale.  Boston would value THAT more than any prospect if it allows them to keep Mookie Betts (which it would).  We can give up Jeffers in a Sale deal because we have a young catcher in Garver and we still have a developing Rortvedt.  I'm not as concerned about Sale's health.  He'll be fine and an ACE for most of those 5-years up to his age 35 season.  Next:  Thor     I must admit, as much as I like Byron Buxton, I would give him up in a deal for Syndergaard.  Lewis could be our CF'er in 2021 (or Celestino).  It's very possible.  But I only offer Buxton and a little sweetner to get it done.  I do NOT offer the Mets Buxton AND Kiriloff.  Thor is younger than Sale and does not have any health issues.  But you get Sale for 5-years and Thor for just two.  I love the idea of taking a run at Blake Snell.  He's the younger, left handed version of Thor.  He would be expensive, but worth it.  Guys like Boyd, Archer, etc...just don't move the needle.  If I'm facing the Yankees in the playoffs I want Sale, Thor or Snell facing off against Gerritt Cole.  What would it take to get Snell?  What do the Rays need?  I would part with Kiriloff because we have Larnach and they are both LH hitting corner outfielder/1B-man guys.  Having BOTH Kiriloff and Larnach makes it easier to let one of them go in a blockbuster.  I'd offer Kiriloff, Jeffers and hopefully a pitcher not named Graterol or Balazovic but if the Twins are serious about building for 2020 and beyond, a name like Blake Snell should and MUST be considered along with Sale and Syndergaard.    

[Tom Froemming]

 

#1 vs a #3. 

 

Boyd is Scott Baker. What was his trade value back in the day? I agree though, if you think you have what you need in your high minors to get yourself an Ace in a year or two, then go ahead and send Detroit some decent not great prospects for this guy. I wouldn't give up a single player in our top 10 for him though. 

 

Syndergaard is a #1 type. I would give up 1 of Buxton, Lewis, or Kiriloff plus a lottery pick guy. All 3 of these guys are redundant in our system. Losing them wouldn't hurt us too bad. That said, any and all of the 3 could become mega studs as well. If that isn't enough for them, then walk away. This should have been done at the trade deadline and likely could have been had the Twins pursued it harder. 

That's your perception. I disagree, I compared these two to some detail in my offseason blueprint. 

[rdehring]

 

I don't know if I would trade Lewis Thorpe straight-up for Matthew Boyd much less add a potential All Star like Larnach and a fast-rising SP option like Canterino.

 

 

Three top ten Twins prospects for Chris Sale's horrible elbow and contract?

 

 

I think the Twins would have to add something to Buxton to get Thor, but it shouldn't be a guy like Kirilloff.

 

 

I would be good with Archer for Rooker and Gordon, I think. 

Took the words right out of my mouth, Seth, or in this case off the tips of my fingers.

 

Sure glad our FO isn't likely to give away the farm for one cow with her best years of production behind her.  Or in the case of Boyd, a young heifer that looks good but ain't done that much as of yet.

 

So I will sit back to see IF the FO does a trade.  And if they do, expect it won't be for a big name at a big price.  And if they don't, will enjoy seeing last year's four young guns battle for those two spots for a couple months.  If they do, I expect they will outperform at least two of the above four. 

[TwinsFan347]

Interesting article. Maybe the Archer deal, don't like the other options very much.

 

I believe Colorado is the best trade partner for the Twins. There top prospect is SS Brendan Rodgers so it maybe possible to put together a deal for Trevor Story. We play him at SS, play Polanco and Arraez at 2B & 3B, giving us a much improved infield. The Rockies also have two interesting Pitchers in Jon Gray and German Marquez. If we're going to package top prospects I'd prefer a deal for Story and one of those two pitchers. A deal like this would improve three areas of our team (infield defense, offense & pitching. My preference of the two pitchers would be Marquez even though I've seen a lot of comments around Gray and like him as well. Marquez looks like a pitcher who could make a big jump forward and getting him out of Coors would help.  

[travkro]

Any of the deals are fine except for Archer. His velocity continues to decline and his best years are way behind him. Hasn't become a pitcher, still just a thrower.

[jkcarew]

Interesting proposals. Honestly feel that the Archer deal is the LEAST likely to be made by the trade partner. And, even at just two years of Archer, a no-brainer if you're the Twins. 

 

Find it interesting that these options seem to go out of their way to protect Lewis. I see Graterol and Kirilloff, but no Lewis. Plenty of risk remains with Lewis's projections...offensively and defensively. The Twins should be willing to include him in some of these offers.

[FritzDahmus]

Starting pitching is over rated these days. Just find guys who can go 5+ innings without giving up more than 2-3 runs on average.....and let your bullpen bring it home. That's where the talent needs to be. They are the pitching heroes today......unless your name is Verlander.

 

The first few innings are so low-leverage....you don't need to waste lots of money and high-end talent on guys like Thor. Please don't...

 

Plus...I want Buxton one more year, before I get tired of him.

[nicksaviking]

No interest in Boyd, I think he’s not fit to be a starting pitcher. I’d rather roll with Dobnak or Thorpe. And I don’t want to roll with those two either.

 

I’d take Sale, but if the Sox want salary relief I think the prospects going back may be too high.

 

After Archer’s last season I kind of think even Rooker is too much, but I’d still do Archer even if that’s what it took.

 

I’d take Syndergaard, but I don’t think he’s available.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Boyd: 2 or 3 guys outside of our top 15.

 

Sale: We take on all of his contract. We trade them Javier and Homer Bailey.

 

Syndegaard: I'd trade them Buxton any day. He's injured a lot, right now actually. We can throw in a top 15-20 guy to get it done.

 

Archer: I make that trade if I'm the Twins.

[Oxtung]

I don't get why people think Archer would cost a lot (other than the Pirates wanting to save face...but that is irrelevant when talking about what is fair). He hasn't been above average in 4 seasons by ERA and while historically he has had a good FIP, he also perennial has  ERA >> FIP, so IMO, that isn't his true talent level. Also, he is coming off of a terrible year in which his ERA was 5.19 and his FIP was 5.02. Plus, he ended the year on the IL; yes he claims he is 100% ready to go for 2020 but it is just another red flag. He is also going to be 31 this season and he lost a full MPH on his fastball in 2019.

 

IMO, an average pitcher is about the best that can be hoped for at this point and the most likely outcome here is back of the rotation starter. At that point why spend the prospect capital when we could just sign one still on the market?

 

What are people's expectations moving forward here? What do people believe the odds are he will have an ERA in these ranges:

 

< 3.50

3.50 - 3.75

3.75 - 4.00

> 4.00

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Personally, I'd prefer the Archer and Boyd deals.  More comfortable with the package Twins would give up and then depend on Wes Johnson to elevate either one.

I love Syndergaard, but numbers and injuries give me pause when you're giving up guys like Buxton and Kirillof.

Sale was dominant, but man that delivery.  Injuries were bound to come calling sooner or later.  I'd sooner take on 3yr/$60mil of Price's contract that give that up for Sale.

I agree 90%.I would take Price and $45 million of his contract and give up Rooker and Gordon.

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don’t understand the “love” for Matthew Boyd at all. He’s less of an ace than José Berrios ever will be so why waste the time trading for a mid rotation starter at best in Boyd? To be honest I’d rather look at trading for Michael Fulmer. I know he had Tommy John surgery last year but he has higher upside and a better pitching arsenal than Boyd IMO.

 

Agreed, completely... Like I said in the first comment, I think that Thorpe could be as good as Boyd (in the next couple of years), and then to add a Larnach is just crazy... If that's what the Tigers are asking, then they aren't really trying to trade him. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Boyd: 2 or 3 guys outside of our top 15.

 

Sale: We take on all of his contract. We trade them Javier and Homer Bailey.

 

Syndegaard: I'd trade them Buxton any day. He's injured a lot, right now actually. We can throw in a top 15-20 guy to get it done.

 

Archer: I make that trade if I'm the Twins.

Javier has too much upside for me to want to trade him right now.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Starting pitching is over rated these days. Just find guys who can go 5+ innings without giving up more than 2-3 runs on average.....and let your bullpen bring it home. That's where the talent needs to be. They are the pitching heroes today......unless your name is Verlander.

 

The first few innings are so low-leverage....you don't need to waste lots of money and high-end talent on guys like Thor. Please don't...

 

Plus...I want Buxton one more year, before I get tired of him.

"I still think starting pitching is what's going to get you a World  Series championship at the end."  2019 Quote from Zack Britton. I agree.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

I have always felt it was riskier for a team to trade away everyday players for pitching. Pitchers are more unpredictable and more injury prone. In addition, pitchers are also riskier as draft picks. Therefore my strategy would be to sign top of the rotation .pitchers as free agents. But then what do I know?

[MABB1959]

I would HATE to see Buxton or Sano go.  I would not like Rosario or Kepler to go.  But that being said wouldn't it be better to trade one now before they hit free agency and get nothing?  Is it possible they will sign them before free agency and it will all be good?  Do you think Buxton or Sano would lock in early or wait?  We have 3 years left of Buxton and I read somewhere that Sano is the least likely to be resigned.  They ticked off Buxton last offseason not sure what that will do.  Could Sano and a few minor league players get us a good pitcher in the prime of his career or do you think it would take Buxton?  

 

 

[Oxtung]

 

I agree 90%.I would take Price and $45 million of his contract and give up Rooker and Gordon.

 

 

If we assume $9M/WAR then at $51M in salary (the remainder of his contract the Twins would pay), Price needs to be worth an average of ~2 WAR for the next 3 years. Over the past 3 years he has an average of 2.6 bWAR & 2 fWAR. It would appear that if the Red Sox take on $45M of his salary, the Twins should just get him for no prospects. At the very worst, we should throw in a low minors wild card. 

 

I would even argue, he shouldn't be expected to put up 2 WAR seasons on average. He is going into his age 34 season and his fastball fell almost 1 full mph last year and it is now at 92mph. Price throws 4 pitches: four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, changeup and cut fastball. As he continues to lose velocity, how long until batters can wait to sit on the changeup because the fastball isn't fast enough to catch them off guard? 

 

IMO, Price isn't going to continue to age well. 

[old nurse]

The candidates make sense, the proposed offers except for Archer do not.

[bobs]

 

I agree 90%.I would take Price and $45 million of his contract and give up Rooker and Gordon.

Yeah, basically come away with Archer and Price for Rooker and Gordon.  Now that it looks like Donaldson wont be coming (did we really think he was?), the $$ can be spent on Price and Mitch Moreland.

[twinstalker]

Why would we give the Mets Kirilloff when they only asked for Buxton?

[Nash Walker]

 

Why would we give the Mets Kirilloff when they only asked for Buxton?

They asked for Buxton plus a top-3 prospect, per reports. 

[Doctor Wu]

I'd love to have Archer, if and only if, he can regain the form he had with Tampa Bay a few years back. What happened to him in Pittsburgh? It's like he's not the same pitcher any longer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sale: We take on all of his contract. We trade them Javier and Homer Bailey.

 

Perhaps this was facetious, but you aren't allowed to trade newly signed FA right away. (I think the rule is May 15th or so?)

[jorgenswest]

Are we ready to deal for Archer if we have to give up Larnach?

[tony&rodney]

At this point the available starters are not looking any more likely to be successful than those already on the roster. Roll with what you have until July when a team that expected to compete has failed.

Another conversation worth having is a query with Boston concerning Betts. They may actually have ideas other than all the Twins top prospects.

[Mr. Brooks]

Are we ready to deal for Archer if we have to give up Larnach?

No way. Larnach is way too much to give up for Archer, IMO.