Front Page: 4 Logical Trades That Would Improve the Twins' Rotation

[Nash Walker]

The Twins will probably need an ace to make a World Series run in 2020. José Berríos may have another level, and Jake Odorizzi was excellent in 2019, but this team clearly craves a frontline dueler. Here are four players and deals that could make that happen:1. Minnesota Twins receive: LHP Matthew Boyd

Detroit Tigers receive: OF Trevor Larnach, LHP Lewis Thorpe, RHP Matt Canterino

 

Why the Twins would accept:

Boyd posted a 3.87 ERA and 142 strikeouts in 107 innings before the break. He struggled in the second half, but there is belief that he is on the cusp of a complete breakout. Boyd has three years of team control and his strikeout numbers are great.

 

Why the Tigers would accept:

The Tigers know that with little talent and Miguel Cabrera’s contract on the books, they won’t be competitive until after Boyd enters free agency. Moving him within the division is not ideal, but I don’t see Detroit landing a better deal than this one.

 

2. Minnesota Twins receive: LHP Chris Sale and cash

Boston Red Sox receive: RHP Brusdar Graterol, C Ryan Jeffers, OF Gilberto Celestino

 

Why the Twins would accept:

Sale was a consistent ace for seven years, finishing in the top-5 for the Cy-Young Award in all but one season, where he finished sixth. He has a career 3.03 ERA with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The demand for return is less because of the remaining contract (5-years, $145 million).

 

Why the Red Sox would accept:

Newly hired GM Chaim Bloom has inherited a club filled with massive contracts and an expiring contract with superstar Mookie Betts. Moving Price could be the preference, but it remains questionable whether a team will take on the majority of the three years and $96 million left on his contract.

 

3. Minnesota Twins receive: RHP Chris Archer

Pittsburgh Pirates receive: OF Brent Rooker and 2B/SS Nick Gordon

 

Why the Twins would accept:

Archer still pumps 94 MPH with his four-seam fastball and his slider remains elite, developing a 42% whiff rate and expected batting line of .230/.295/.359 in 2019. Archer will make $9 million in 2020 with an $11 million club option in 2021.

 

Why the Pirates would accept:

The Pirates are trying to start a new decade with fresh faces. Former Twins bench coach Derek Shelton is their manager and Ben Cherington took over as GM. Maybe they won’t sell low, but maybe they will. This is not the same front office that traded away Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow for Archer at the 2018 deadline.

 

4. Minnesota Twins receive: RHP Noah Syndergaard

New York Mets receive: OF Byron Buxton and OF Alex Kirilloff

 

Why the Twins would accept:

Falvine can give the Twins their true ace, a monster who throws 98 MPH. The one they call “Thor” hasn't been as sharp in recent years but is still excellent and has two more seasons of team control. A rotation of Syndergaard, José Berríos, Jake Odorizzi, and Michael Pineda can certainly give the Yankees a run for their money.

 

Why the Mets would accept:

With the signings of Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha, the Mets have six starters and five rotation spots. It has been rumored that Steven Matz may be the one to go, but a much better return can be found with Syndergaard. The Mets already asked for a similar deal at the deadline. There is real dialogue here.

 

Which trades do you like/dislike for the Twins? Please leave a comment!

 

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[Seth Stohs]

I don't know if I would trade Lewis Thorpe straight-up for Matthew Boyd much less add a potential All Star like Larnach and a fast-rising SP option like Canterino.

 

 

Three top ten Twins prospects for Chris Sale's horrible elbow and contract?

 

 

I think the Twins would have to add something to Buxton to get Thor, but it shouldn't be a guy like Kirilloff.

 

 

I would be good with Archer for Rooker and Gordon, I think. 

[jorgenswest]

I think you are spot on with what it would take to get an established pitcher. The Twins might lose all of these deals but starting pitching is a premium and if you don’t develop it you need to pay up in players or dollars.

[specialiststeve]

Would absolutely do the Sale and Archer deals. Hell both! 

Sale, Berrios, Oddorizi, Archer and Bailey... that would be good.

 

Basically Boyd has had 1/2 of 1 good season. Don't think I would not do that one.  

 

Not sure on Thor.... Buxton and Kiriloff is a ton... Probably would pass.... 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Mets won’t trade Syndergaard this offseason—I’d be stunned if they did.

 

The other offers you mention Nash are intriguing but I have a hard time evaluating these particular ones. I wonder if Pittsburgh feels burned having traded Cole, or Detroit trading Verlander now two years later. The Twins apparently made no gestures for either of those pitchers, nor James Paxton last offseason.

 

But I will call back to what jorgenswest said in Nick Nelson’s thread about David Price. I think if the Twins offered a decent prospect (but not top five) and then took roughly half of Price’s salary, that might be a fair deal for both sides. At that cost, maybe Price would compare well with the Keuchel, Bumgarner, or Ryu group. Not to mention, Price’s injury history would seem to be of little concern to this front office. Long way of saying... none of the proposals above look as attractive or doable to me as David Price. However I do like Chris Archer and I know that guy can pitch. I just wouldn’t offer both Rooker and Gordon. I will have to think about it.

[bobs]

Personally, I'd prefer the Archer and Boyd deals.  More comfortable with the package Twins would give up and then depend on Wes Johnson to elevate either one.

I love Syndergaard, but numbers and injuries give me pause when you're giving up guys like Buxton and Kirillof.

Sale was dominant, but man that delivery.  Injuries were bound to come calling sooner or later.  I'd sooner take on 3yr/$60mil of Price's contract that give that up for Sale.

[Strato Guy]

The one trade I would not make is the Sale trade. That is too steep of price to pay for Sale at this stage of his career. Maybe 2 or 3 years ago, but not now. 

[bobs]

...any ideas what it'd possibly take to get Gray from Colorado?  How about Alcantara?

[Seansy]

Do a deal for less prospect cost and more money taken on with Price over Sale or do the Archer trade.

 

Not a fan of the other proposals.

[Mr. Brooks]

If Archer can really be had for Rooker and Gordon, it should have been done yesterday.

[Nebraska Nick]

What about Rosario, Nick Gordon (family ties), and Thorpe for Alcantara from Miami?

[beckmt]

 

What about Rosario, Nick Gordon (family ties), and Thorpe for Alcantara from Miami?

I think this is way too much

[Andrew610i3]

I really don't mind the sale proposal. Graterol is no sure thing...

[Tom Froemming]

Give me Matthew Boyd for his package over Noah Syndergaard for his package every day of the week. I think Boyd even comes with an additional year of control than Thor. 

[NatteringNabob]

After signing Bailey and Hill I think we just need to accept the fact that the rotation is complete for the year. The front office has taken a lot of heat for this but they deserve credit for making the most of an off-season where the circumstances were against them. Wheeler was not leaving the east coast. I’m not sure they found Ryu worth it (and the transition to the American League may not treat him kindly). Bumgarner took a discount and wasn’t even seriously considering anyone else (btw, I wonder what the MLBPA thinks of that? It can’t make them happy).

 

On to Donaldson and if not him, maybe a trade for another position player and wait until the trade deadline or next years free agent class for pitching. What does the 20/21 class of free agents look like?

[Mike Sixel]

If Archer can really be had for Rooker and Gordon, it should have been done yesterday.

Yes. That's a terrible trade for Pittsburg.

[Nebraska Nick]

Rosario, Larnach, Gordon, Jeffers for Syndergard and Diaz?

[Jham]

I like Boyd's upside, personally. However, don't think the Tigers would trade him in the division. They're calling up 2018 first overall pick Casey Mize up this spring along with another potential stud. They'll likely hope to compete by the end of Boyds contract.

[Richard Swerdlick]

Interesting article. I think the Archer trade has the most promise. The others would not be done by this FO as they are setting things up for internal candidates to be the rotation of the future. No takers for Eddie??

[Thebigalguy]

Intriguing. Thanks for thinking them up. I wouldn’t give up top-10 prospects for aging pitchers. Falvine are cautious and I like that. I think they expect to develop an ace. Given the solid staff they’ve put together, I’m good with that. As for Buxton, I love him out there in center for entertainment value alone, assuming they can sign him long term.

[jhoffman]

Thor- should be their top target, Buxton, Gordan, & Duran might get it done.

Sale- on the decline, same with Price, I'll pass.

Archer- that's not enough to get him, but I would add a "throw in" from AA .

Boyd- Tigers will want more and I would give it to them, add Romero who's out of options.

 

[Doctor Gast]

 

I like Boyd's upside, personally. However, don't think the Tigers would trade him in the division. They're calling up 2018 first overall pick Casey Mize up this spring along with another potential stud. They'll likely hope to compete by the end of Boyds contract.

 

[mike8791]

Good and timely article, Nash.  Everyone except Falvine seems to realize the need for an ace if this team is going to advance in the playoffs.  After three stagnant years of good but not great pitching, Berrios is a good but not great pitcher - and he is the best we have now.  So in evaluating trade candidates, we need to identify an established ace or one who has exhibited ace potential.

 

Boyd and Archer do not move the needle much from Berrios.  Sale more so, but unless he can be moved for prospects not named graterol or Lewis, his injury history and age diminishes his value considerably.

 

Thor is the only candidate who clearly has ace potential and yes, the Twins should be willing to trade Buxton, one top 10 prospect and one 10-20 prospect, if Mets agreeable.  I would hate to lose Buxton but Twins are stacked in OFers, with Kepler a more than adequate CF.  The big drawback is the high unlikelihood of Mets trading Thor.  Still, this is a subject the FO should be working on if they are serious about competing in the playoffs.

 

Assuming Thor is unavailable, I would look at three other trade candidates(in descending order of desirability) :  Snell, Ray and Jon Gray.  Tampa Bay could unload Snell with their already formidable rotation.  Signing Donaldson might allow Sano to be moved in a trade here.  Ray and Gray have shown flashes of dominance and both have been rumored to be available, albeit for a high price.  We have the minor league talent to get it done, even if it means giving up a Lewis or Kiriloff. So those are my immediate targets in order of importance: Thor, Snell, Ray, and Gray.  Surely, one of these could be pried loose,  If only we had some bold risk takers in our FO! 

 

If I were a betting man, I would say there is less than a 10% chance this FO could get it done.  Sorry to be such a naysayer but nothing this FO has done in 3 years gives me confidence in their ability to pull off a major trade.  Pohlad seems to thrive with low risk takers and he has had two of the best in Ryan and Falvey, I'm afraid.

[Doctor Gast]

Thanks for your article. I too like the boyd but share the same feeling that being in the same division we wouldn`t get a good deal.

 I like Snyderguard but I wouldn`t destroy our outfield for him ( Buxton is too valuable). 

I like the Sale trade but I wouldn`t trade away our catching future, I`d delete Jeffers & except less cash

What I like the best is the Archer trade. Face value I think Pittsburgh is getting a better deal but actually Archer is worth it.

 I`m also interested in Ray, I think Arizona have an abundance of starting pitching. Other is J. Gray if Colorado is open for a trade. If not now maybe later for either. 

[dbminn]

The Boyd trade is interesting for both sides. I'd make the trade if I was in either front office. Too bad they're in the same division. That's a big PR hurdle for each team. 

 

Chris Sale for three top-ten Twins prospects? NO! I don't care how much cash is involved. 

 

I'd make the Archer trade for Rooker and Gordon but that's not enough for Pittsburgh. Archer comes with little risk - $9M for one year, with a club option if all goes well. Two predicted bench players aren't going to get the Twins up to two years of a good SP with only $9M on the line. 

 

Syndergaard for Buxton straight up could be a good trade for both teams. Two years v. three. Buxton comes really cheap this year. Both have injury risk and upside. I don't think I could pull the trigger as GM for either team, but it would make the next few years very interesting.

 

Gray still makes the most sense to both teams. Twins have prospects with AA experience to offer. Unfortunately, Colorado still believes they can compete in the NL West.

 

[FormerMinnasotan]

I don’t understand the “love” for Matthew Boyd at all. He’s less of an ace than José Berrios ever will be so why waste the time trading for a mid rotation starter at best in Boyd? To be honest I’d rather look at trading for Michael Fulmer. I know he had Tommy John surgery last year but he has higher upside and a better pitching arsenal than Boyd IMO.

[jorgenswest]

If they do make a trade it is going to be too much. That is the premium cost for starting pitching. Expect it. The deal is not going to feel fair.

 

Larnach is a sell high candidate that can be the main piece of a deal for Ray or Alcantara or several of the others. He is valuable to most teams because he looks ready to arrive this season.

 

Rosario is most valuable to a contending team with a need in left field. He is more valuable to the Twins than most of these trade partners.

[adjacent]

I would like that someone that knows more baseball than me (not a very high standard) could explain me what Boyd has over Thorpe, other than the MLB experience. Both are lefties that don't throw very hard for today's standard, and strike out they share of people. Regarding to results, as someone else said, Boyd had half a good year, not much more than that. My fear is that doing that trade, we would be getting more or less the same pitcher, only more expensive and we would lose Larnach.

[jorgenswest]

 

I would like that someone that knows more baseball than me (not a very high standard) could explain me what Boyd has over Thorpe, other than the MLB experience. Both are lefties that don't throw very hard for today's standard, and strike out they share of people. Regarding to results, as someone else said, Boyd had half a good year, not much more than that. My fear is that doing that trade, we would be getting more or less the same pitcher, only more expensive and we would lose Larnach.

 

I really respect Seth's knowledge and here is his take...

 

 

I don't know if I would trade Lewis Thorpe straight-up for Matthew Boyd much less add a potential All Star like Larnach and a fast-rising SP option like Canterino.

 

I would trade from pitching from their strength in outfield prospects in Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker and Lewis.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Give me Matthew Boyd for his package over Noah Syndergaard for his package every day of the week. I think Boyd even comes with an additional year of control than Thor. 

 

#1 vs a #3. 

 

Boyd is Scott Baker. What was his trade value back in the day? I agree though, if you think you have what you need in your high minors to get yourself an Ace in a year or two, then go ahead and send Detroit some decent not great prospects for this guy. I wouldn't give up a single player in our top 10 for him though. 

 

Syndergaard is a #1 type. I would give up 1 of Buxton, Lewis, or Kiriloff plus a lottery pick guy. All 3 of these guys are redundant in our system. Losing them wouldn't hurt us too bad. That said, any and all of the 3 could become mega studs as well. If that isn't enough for them, then walk away. This should have been done at the trade deadline and likely could have been had the Twins pursued it harder.