Front Page: How Did The Jason Castro Deal Fare?

[Matt Braun]

The day was Nov. 30, 2016 and it was the day that everything changed. By “everything” I of course mean the Twins’ catching situation which, naturally, is the only thing that matters. On that day, Jason Castro was inked to a three-year deal worth $24 million and it remains the biggest free agent contract handed out to a position player by the Twins in their history.Castro’s deal reached its end after this past season and with the signing of Alex Avila along with Mitch Garver becoming literally Mike Piazza, the odds of him returning are about the same as me dating Scarlett Johansson, so allow me to look back on Castro’s deal and see how both parties did.

 

Castro presented an interesting example of the shift in thinking in the Twins as this was the first “major” deal handed out by the front office now headed by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine and it appeared that they were starting to apply their ideas to the current roster. This included signing a player who is easily overlooked by traditional stats but brings value through more advanced ways of looking at players. Some may have seen his career .232 batting average and scoffed at why the Twins would even bother while others would look at his OPS+ of 93 (above average for catchers) and excellent advanced defensive stats and see a great player hidden underneath the tyranny of RBIs.

 

“Value” is tough to exactly define in baseball but $/WAR gives us a good general starting point to tackle the issue. 1 WAR comes out to about $8-9 million dollars on the free agent market but this relationship isn’t linear as teams rarely pay $8 million a year for a player worth 1 WAR and players worth 3 WAR don’t typically make $24 million a year on the market. Castro’s deal does however give us a good base as his contract of $24 million would mean that he needs to put up just ~3 WAR over the course of his contract for his performance to equal what the Twins paid for.

 

Luckily for both Castro and the Twins, he was more or less worth exactly that. Baseball-reference’s version of WAR (rWAR) has him at 3.1 in his time with the Twins while Fangraphs (fWAR) has him at 3.7 and Baseball Prospectus (WARP) has him at 4.0.

 

His bat was more or less what it was with the Astros as his OPS+ with the Twins was 91 compared to 93 with the Astros. The public defensive numbers we have available are also quite kind to Castro as Fangraphs as he has been the 14th best pitch framer in baseball since he signed with the Twins (min 1500 innings). This doesn’t sound too impressive but many of the names ahead of him are purely defensive specialists like Jeff Mathis who also couldn’t hit their way out of a cardboard box (Mathis has a career wRC+ of 46), so Castro was one of the few catchers who could hit at an average level and defend well.

 

Beyond that, it seemed like Castro brought more to the table than just his ability on the field. Unfortunately, I am not in the clubhouse so I don’t know exactly how everything shook out in there but it seemed like many pitchers were outspoken in how he worked with the pitching staff in both calling games and pre-game preparation. The catcher position more than any other is one that demands more than just on-field performance and it appeared that Castro was useful there as well.

 

Castro was never an eye-popping player but he was a solid role-player who brought good value to a team that needed a strong defensive catcher and he was worth almost exactly what his contract paid him. The Twins also made the playoffs in both of the seasons he was healthy, coincidence? Most definitely, but still something fun to think about when considering a player’s value.

 

UPDATE: Jeff Passan of ESPN reports Castro is joining the Angels.

 

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[MMMordabito]

Since Castro signed with the Angels, your odds of dating Scarlett Johansson are now infinitely better than him signing with the Twins.  Best of luck!!

[LewFordLives]

The first time I watched Castro catch a game for the Twins was a complete revelation. Nothing against Kurt Suzuki. He was/is decent with the bat, but behind the plate he is not comparable to Castro. Castro was a great signing.

[DocBauer]

Only a novice, but I kinda get and kinda understand all the modern day analytics. I kinda get WAR as well. It all sounds so smart and well researched. And then I read about how many WAR options there are. And pitchers, let's just stop before we get in to various ERA and FIP this and that.

 

At some point...a player performs or he doesn't. Your eye shows you a guy is good or stinks at certain things, albeit with stats to help you make your final decision.

 

But the catcher position in baseball is so unique that I care very little about statistics or rankings. There was a time when you hit, or you didn't. But managers and pitchers would talk about handling a staff, and calling a game, and leading a staff or team. Before there was Butera there was Boone. And if you don't know Boone, look him up. And if you don't know either...I don't know what to tell you.

 

Modern metrics have really messed with catcher "rankings" in my opinion. Unless you are in the clubhouse, dug out, or on the field, you really don't know how good that catcher is or the job he does.

 

Castro was good. Castro did a lot in his 2 healthy seasons for the Twins. I would have liked to keep him for a 60/40 ish split for 2020 since the 50/50 worked so well in 2019 but Garver is ready for more.

 

IMO, the Twins were lucky to find an almost exact equivalent in Avilla for next season to replace Castro. What I don't understand is NO rumors and NO reported offers for Castro until this deal.

 

Was he asking for and expecting too much? I'm guessing that is the case. Otherwise, I think the Twins would have spent a bit more to keep status quo. I think he was looking for a real shot at being the #1 guy and was disappointed. I think he was important for the club while here and for Garver's growth as well.

 

Best of luck to him. Glad we have a nice #2 option available who is respected.

[h2oface]

As Castro really only played basically 2 years of the 3 year contract, it comes out to $12 million/year. Not the best value. But it could have been Butera, so not the worst, at all.

[highlander]

Your advanced metrics confirm my eye test. Your metrics are approved. Castro was a good to great signing for the Twins. Best wishes for a successful twilight to your career Jason. Just not against the Twins.

[Platoon]

"the odds of him returning are about the same as me dating Scarlett Johansson">>>>>>. So you’re saying we do have a chance? . 

[Major League Ready]

 

“Value” is tough to exactly define in baseball but $/WAR gives us a good general starting point to tackle the issue. 1 WAR comes out to about $8-9 million dollars on the free agent market but this relationship isn’t linear as teams rarely pay $8 million a year for a player worth 1 WAR and players worth 3 WAR don’t typically make $24 million a year on the market. Castro’s deal does however give us a good base as his contract of $24 million would mean that he needs to put up just ~3 WAR over the course of his contract for his performance to equal what the Twins paid for.
 

 

Is the 8-9M per WAR we see used as the "value" of free agents calculated based on historic production by free agents or is there some other formula?

[KGB]

Based on the WAR calculation, Castro was no more than a replacement level player.  But the Twins need a catcher, so he provided what they need in 2 out of the 3 season. 

[Number3]

 

The first time I watched Castro catch a game for the Twins was a complete revelation. Nothing against Kurt Suzuki. He was/is decent with the bat, but behind the plate he is not comparable to Castro. Castro was a great signing.

Except Suzuki just finished a nice year for the World Series champs, had some huge hits for them and evidently wasn't too shabby behind the plate. The amazing thing about the Castro signing was that that was their big move for that off season and somehow he was supposed to turn pitchers like Gibson into Cy Young award winners because of his "framing" ability. Castro is a good solid Major League catcher and that is enough but he is not going to transform anybody. It was the Twins who got "framed".

[Herschel78]

I really thought that Castro let a lot of catchable pitches get by him. Most were called wild pitches, but it seemed like he was letting 1 or 2 get by him every game.

[Battle ur tail off]

What I don't get here is that the Twins last year had one of, if not the best catching production in all of baseball with those 2 guys. 

Is he starting in Anaheim? If not, it seems silly Twins didn't pursue seeing as he got a one year deal for not a ton of money?

[SwainZag]

 

What I don't get here is that the Twins last year had one of, if not the best catching production in all of baseball with those 2 guys. 

Is he starting in Anaheim? If not, it seems silly Twins didn't pursue seeing as he got a one year deal for not a ton of money?

 

I would have to imagine he will be starting in Anaheim and was looking for a more solid role with Garver emerging as the more often than not starter.

 

Not to mention Castro's bat fell off a cliff in the 2nd half.

 

2nd half numbers: .191/.333/.299.   .632 OPS.  3 HR, 6 RBI and 49 K in 97 AB.  

[MMMordabito]

 

Not to mention Castro's bat fell off a cliff in the 2nd half.

 

2nd half numbers: .191/.333/.299.   .632 OPS.  3 HR, 6 RBI and 49 K in 97 AB.  

 

Those numbers look eerily similar to the second half numbers of the backup catcher we signed for 2020, albeit for $2 mill less than what Castro got.

 

.185/.306/.359 ---- .654 OPS  ---- 4 HR, 7 RBI and 44 K in 92 AB.

 

Gotta save that money! JP probably has his eyes on the new Rolls-Royce Phantom.

[SwainZag]

 

Those numbers look eerily similar to the second half numbers of the backup catcher we signed for 2020, albeit for $2 mill less than what Castro got.

 

.185/.306/.359 ---- .654 OPS  ---- 4 HR, 7 RBI and 44 K in 92 AB.

 

Gotta save that money! JP probably has his eyes on the new Rolls-Royce Phantom.

 

This has nothing to do with Avila or the perceived notion of the FO being "cheap".  Castro struggled mightily down the stretch and went and found a place where he will get more playing time than he would here, good for him.

[jmlease1]

 

Based on the WAR calculation, Castro was no more than a replacement level player.  But the Twins need a catcher, so he provided what they need in 2 out of the 3 season. 

 

"replacement" level in WAR is 0. Castro was significantly better than replacement level. His first, healthy year he was a solid starting catcher. His second year he was injured (it happens) and he didn't add (or subtract) much value since he barely played. His 3rd year, he was a backup and played like one. Since you can't predict injury, I think the contract ends up being fine.

 

We got the starter we needed in year one, and by the time the contract was up, Garver was in place to take his ABs. That's not a bad result from a free agency move. If he hadn't blown out the knee, there's little doubt in my mind that he easily outperforms the contract. Since there's injury risk in every contract, you can't flip out too much about the results.

[h2oface]

 

I really thought that Castro let a lot of catchable pitches get by him. Most were called wild pitches, but it seemed like he was letting 1 or 2 get by him every game.

 

Totally agree. He was the creator of many wild pitches in that sense. Way too many. And passed balls. Especially for being hailed as a defensive specialist.