Front Page: Is Homer Bailey the Next Martin Perez?

[Jham]

Why do so many discount keeping these guys in the fold. Baffles me!

Probably because Odo had a career year that arguably trailed off towards his career marks, and Pineda was suspended, is suspended, and wasn't all that good early. Better than nothing. But even the front office isn't trying to sell that retaining those 2 is what they had in mind.

[Riverbrian]

 

If we get to the trade deadline and Bailey is a better than league average pitcher as Perez did last year I will be pleased.

Of course Perez was at an age where he was in the prime of his career so there may have been more reason for encouragement and too much patience with his two awful starts to begin August.

Morrison was nowhere near a league average player nor was he 28.

Perez was a poor pitcher after the trade deadline but articles about his fall came well into the second half. Andrew Thames wrote one for TD in August 11 and szymborski and Fangraphs had one August 12. The Twins might have pulled the plug August 12 but this was not the season long struggle of Morrison.

I don’t see that comparison and I really hope we get league average pitching from Bailey that we saw from Perez through July.

 

I think Perez compares with Morrison when you look at his previous body of work. Morrison was at least coming off a rebound year. Perez was coming off a disaster of a year and his years prior to that disaster were not of the (I've earned a major league job) variety. Perez was a project the minute he signed with us. 

 

Now... to be fair... Perez was making everyone look like a genius until May 30th. His April and May for us was so good that I can certainly understand the temptation to try and get him back to what he was doing in April and May. 

 

However... In my opinion, there is a limit to how long you let a guy struggle and more importantly... when the wheels started coming off Perez... the front office had to know that the playoffs were indeed probable and preparations for those playoffs needed to begin. 

 

I didn't mark the Thames or Symborski articles as any kind of indicator. I was already there. 

 

In my opinion... The first date of consideration for moving Perez out of the rotation was after the all-star break. He should have never made that start on July 17th. From May 30th to July 5th he had made 7 starts totaling 37 innings. His ERA during that stretch was 6.32. 

 

Why Perez now at the all-star break?

1. His performance was clearly not good for 7 straight starts. We got something that needs correcting at the very least. 

 

2. If the Twins were to acquire a starter at the upcoming deadline... And they needed to acquire a starter at the deadline because nobody goes through a season with only 5 starters... but back to IF the Twins. If the Twins were to acquire a starter at the deadline, it was clearly going to be Perez who would be moved out of the rotation to accommodate. Look at the healthy 5. Who makes room for Stroman... It would have been Perez. So just do it now... you don't have to wait for the trade deadline especially when he is going through a 7 start stretch with a 6.32 ERA. 

 

 

3. And of course... it was the month of July when the front office went on a bullpen DFA purge releasing Mejia, Morin, Magill and Parker in 11 days from July 13th to July 24th. This is significant because we obviously needed some bullpen help after sending 4 of them packing. It was the perfect time to lessen Perez's responsibility from 6 innings to 3 or less. Let him find that April/May Cutter magic out of the pen instead of waiting for 5 days to take another stab it. 

 

OK... so the All-Star Break didn't happen... I stated last July that moving Perez at that time was the move but.. OK... it didn't happen. 

 

The next window for making the move was obvious. At least to me. 

 

August 1st.

 

After the deadline passed and the Twins did not acquire starting pitching. They had no choice... they had to find the guy from their system and they had to do it now. No team is going to go through a season with the same 5 guys in the rotation. Once they didn't acquire Stroman (For Example). The Team had to develop it's own Stroman (For example). Just because they didn't acquire Stroman doesn't mean the need went away. The need was still there so they needed to get to immediate work finding our version of Stroman. 

 

Every passing day after August 1st that Perez remained in the rotation was a repeated daily mistake. Every day after August 1st that they were not feverishly trying to figure out who they should turn to between Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe or Kohl Stewart was a repeated daily mistake. 

 

Even if I could justify them not making the move August 1st (Which I can't) as they desperately clung to Perez and desperately avoided Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe or whoever.

 

On August 2nd he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings of work against the Royals and then again on August 7th... he gave up 7 earned runs in 6 innings against the Braves.

 

The articles you mention came out August 11th and 12. His ERA from May 30th to those articles was 6.61 over 64 innings. 

 

He should have never been allowed to make that start on August 13th after those articles came out. 

 

Of course he threw 6 innings against the Brewers with no earned runs in that game on August 13th. 

 

Smeltzer was first called up May 28th and either sent down or under utilized in favor of Perez during this entire bad Perez stretch and Smeltzer never pitched badly for us. 

 

Dobnak was called up August 9th and either sent down and under utilized in favor of Perez until Dobnak is finally forced (too late) into the rotation by Gibson E Coli and the Pineda suspension (Not Perez Bad Performance) on September 15th and he eventually is called upon to lead us to victory in Game TWO after 28 innings. Perez made 6 starts between August 9th and September 15th. Dobnak could have had 60 innings of work prior to the playoffs.  

 

Lewis Thorpe was called up on July 28th placed into the bullpen and was never a candidate to replace Perez in the rotation. 

 

Martin Perez personally kept us from getting important looks at Smeltzer and Dobnak and whoever. While he was handed the ball every 5th game religiously despite producing numbers that were as bad as any Twins pitcher in history over a 21 start stretch. From May 30th until the end of the season his ERA was 6.29. 

 

Martin Perez was perhaps worse than Logan Morrison and I sit here today hoping that Bailey is nothing like Perez.

 

And if he is like Perez. I hope the front office learned it's lesson and removes Bailey from the rotation so someone else can try pitch like they belong in the majors. 7 Million better not stand in the way. 

 

BTW... I raise these sharp criticisms and still declare my happiness with the current front office. 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Agree 100%. But reflecting back, Gibson was beginning to have issues as well. And 1 kid in the rotation at a time may have been their thinking.

But I agree, you give the kid of choice a shot, or you don't. (Did I just channel Yoda there?) When 2020 rolls around, and there is opportunity arises early on with Pineda out, I hope they just "go for it" with their youngster of choice. Maybe even piggyback a couple of them.

 

I agree... There had to be concerns about Gibson's health because the E Coli wasn't new. There had to be concerns about.Perez's performance and the possibility of injury from any of the other 3, historically probable. 

 

How that trade deadline passed us without a starter acquisition is beyond me... but if they didn't like the prices and passed. 1 kid at a time or 2 kids at a time was no longer a consideration. It was a requirement.  

[DocBauer]

I agree... There had to be concerns about Gibson's health because the E Coli wasn't new. There had to be concerns about.Perez's performance and the possibility of injury from any of the other 3, historically probable.

 

How that trade deadline passed us without a starter acquisition is beyond me... but if they didn't like the prices and passed. 1 kid at a time or 2 kids at a time was no longer a consideration. It was a requirement.

Maybe I'm just a homer, but I actually think the FO felt they either had Stroman in the bag, or felt they had an understood gentleman's agreement for first refusal to up their offer.

 

Considering reportage as to their consternation, and other various reports that questioned what the Jay's got back, I am thinking this is what happened, for whatever reason.

 

Betting you will not see another transaction between these teams for some time.

[Riverbrian]

Maybe I'm just a homer, but I actually think the FO felt they either had Stroman in the bag, or felt they had an understood gentleman's agreement for first refusal to up their offer.

 

Considering reportage as to their consternation, and other various reports that questioned what the Jay's got back, I am thinking this is what happened, for whatever reason.

 

Betting you will not see another transaction between these teams for some time.

You could be right. I assume there is a ton of stuff inside the walls that could explain why a starter wasn't acquired that doesn't reach the public.

 

The only thing I can do is look at what I can see and I see that a starter wasn't acquired. Why I don't know. I can only assume that you are at the mercy of meeting the other's price when you have need and competition for that need will drive the price up.

 

However... the need for a starter didn't go away once a starter wasn't acquired. If the price was too high they had to fill that need with the options available.

[cardsfan]

Baseball reference has Bailey with a 1.44 WHIP projected for 2020. Could this signing have waited until mid-February to see if a trade for another pitcher was possible?

 

You can't find a AAA pitcher to give you this output?

[Channing1964]

We wish it would be easy channing but I'm not so sure it will be quite as smooth sailing as last season. Cleveland has a much better rotation than we do and they have Lindor, Ramirez and some other solid players. CWS will not be easy wins this season either, not like the past. 3rd place would not be a surprise in the least to me.

 

The only way Cleveland or Chicago has a snowballs chance is if we get hit by some unforseen rash of injuries akin to what happened to the Yankees last year. For every one of the Cleveland starters except Clevenger(injury prone) and Bieber, I can argue that we absolutely should expect them to regress. And yes I am talking about Plutko,Plesac,Civale, and to an even greater extent Salazar if he ever shows up again, and Carrasco who, even though its an amazing story, does anybody really think he can become even close to what he was before the leukemia. Carrasco was never elite I.M.H.O. anyways. I have said enough about Cleveland. Over to the South Side ..i can always find a reason to laugh about them. Throwing money around in this age like they did this offseason has everybody that knows anything scratching their heads. Keuchel for multi years and G.Gonzalez pitching for them? BWAHHHHAHAHAHA. You do realize that the White Sox had arguably the worst infield defense in the MLB last year...Tim Anderson makes Polanco look like the second coming of Ozzie Smith. Without looking it up, i bet...just from knowing the names, that their outfield was way below league average as well. Mazzaro, some rookie they say is an all star before his first at bat, and a second year guy who they SAID would be an all star as well. (maybe in like 2026?). Their bullpen was and is a mess again. Giolito is the only pitcher i would want off their team and even right now he couldn't crack our rotation. They fall asleep on the bases, lose close games and get outsmarted over and Over again. Now they have 2 starting catchers, 3 starting first baseman, only one dh spot in the lineup, and not a single credible major leaguer for a back up outfielder anywhere. They non-tendered the only guy who can catch the ball and put their cf at second until the SECOND rookie us deemed ready to move up for good. The Chicago White Sox are a Train Wreck...and it will be clear to everyone by the All Star Break.

[Rosterman]

The Twins, in all cases, were not ready to give up on Perez. He was a lefthander. They had an option for 2020. They seriously wanted to consider him to be a part of the team, compared to not.

 

But the joy of free agents, all they involve is money. You can send them packing via release, maybe someone picks up the remaining salary. Maybe you get a minor prospect back. I see the Twins have the option of playing the same game with Bailey and Chadin if both start the year with the team. Keep them on a short leash. Hope the Thorpes and Dobnaks and others shine in AAA - but you still will have Pineda and Hill coming back (hopefully).

[Major League Ready]

 

You can never have too much pitching of course, but it's worth noting that right now he wouldn't be among their top five or six starters, which says more about the quality of their rotation mix than him. A's are stacked. 

 

I think stacked is a little strong. They have a fair number of decent pitchers. It's interesting to look at how that staff was acquired when evaluating the Bailey acquisition. Bailey would be the highest paid pitcher among those players who contributed the most last year in terms of WAR.

 

Hendricks – 3.8 WAR / 1 yr5.3M
Montas – 3.0 WAR / pre-arb / Acquired with no ML service time.
Anderson – 2.0 WAR / Acquired as a FA @ 1/5M
Fiers – 1.7 WAR / Acquired as a F/A @ 2/14M

 

Bassit – 2.1 WAR / 2.25M / Bassit was the type of trade many here would absolutely despise. The A’s traded an established player (Smardzija) and Michael Yona for Bassit and Semien when Semien had 324 ML PAs. That’s how you move the needle for several years. They built their staff with the type of moves that many here would ridicule and label dumpster diving.

[Flipper1a]

When you compare Bailey to Odorizzi you see what the FO was seeing.  Bailey actually has higher average velocity on his fastball, has a the split finger that really progressed late last year, and had success against Houston and NYY late in the year.

 

I like Bailey over Perez for the simple fact that I think Bailey will listen.  I don't think Perez followed instructions very well....seemed to go away from what made him successful early in 2019.

[bighat]

Interesting to see this subject float back up to the top after a few comments.

 

My two cents: Homer Baily is definitely an upgrade over Perez. Martin has not enjoyed a successful career in the big leagues, he came to the Twins in 2019 after posting an ERA north of 6 (SIX!) with the Rangers in 2018. In my opinion, he made some adjustments that fooled some teams early in 2019, but the league caught on and by June he was a Mike Pelfrey clone.

Bailey, on the other hand, has a proven track record of at least being an average pitcher in the bigs. And that's just what the Twins need right now as the season starts off. We can grab that ace in July.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My two cents: Homer Baily is definitely an upgrade over Perez. Martin has not enjoyed a successful career in the big leagues, he came to the Twins in 2019 after posting an ERA north of 6 (SIX!) with the Rangers in 2018. In my opinion, he made some adjustments that fooled some teams early in 2019, but the league caught on and by June he was a Mike Pelfrey clone.

Bailey, on the other hand, has a proven track record of at least being an average pitcher in the bigs. And that's just what the Twins need right now as the season starts off. We can grab that ace in July.

You do realize Bailey had an ERA north of 6 (SIX!) in 2018 too -- with more starts and innings that year than Perez. (Plus Bailey was north of 6 ERA in 2016-2017 partial seasons as well.) Career wise, they are not that far apart, overall.

 

But Bailey is on a better trend after 2019, so I like him better going into 2020 even though he's older.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This is my primary fear (I'm almost single issue minded on the subject) and it drives almost all of my personal viewpoints on roster construction that I mention frequently. 

 

I never want to see a Logan Morrison situation ever again. I mean ever, ever, ever...  because it is completely pointless and counter-productive. You can't let a player playing that badly play everyday without seeking a better alternative.

 

I consider Martin Perez to be the latest example of Logan Morrison so I don't believe we are out of the woods yet but we need to get out of those woods immediately. 

 

Any team that allows a below par performer to play everyday not only kills your chances for winning in the current season but it also kills your chances for future development, which kills your chances of crawling out of the hole created by sub-par play with a longer term future year possibility in hand, which in turn slows your rebuild to the point of waiting longer to being competitive again.

 

In my opinion, this is the primary reason our Twins have taken (WAYYY) too long to return to competitive baseball and now that we are competitive again... it is still important to ensure that we remain competitive for a longer window.

 

The primary reason for our lengthy stay in the doldrums has been rewarding of average to below average performance with everyday jobs. Settling for average to below average performance and not seeking improvement from other options. 

 

I support the right for the front office to add anybody they think can do the job and give them a job. However, once handed the job, they must perform or lose that job. It matters not what the past track record is or the amount of money you are paying him. If they think Homer Bailey is the guy, I will support that decision just like I did when they thought Martin Perez was the guy last off-season. 

 

My support ends based on performance. With Martin Perez so fresh in my memory... my caution flag is already raised with Homer Bailey because the front office demonstrated a stubbornness trying to make Martin Perez work. Neither, 7 million dollars or spin rates on a spreadsheet should allow Bailey to continue with sub-par numbers without an alternative sought. 

 

It's important this year. We have multiple minor league pitchers on the cusp and we can't be looking for the next Homer Bailey next year to replace the Homer Bailey of this year. One or two of those minor league pitchers on the cusp need to be sufficiently auditioned for inclusion on next years roster. Who will it be?

 

We gotta find out. 

This is the crux of my argument as to why I'm not a fan of reclamation projects in general. You have to give them innings. If they work, great, but you're always trying stuff with them to see what you can get to work and eventually have to cut bait... Lots of losses happen in that scenario and they add up. 

[IndianaTwin]

Am I wrong to be concerned about a pitcher whose name is David Dewitt Bailey, Jr., but whose nickname is "Homer"?

 

It ranks up there with Grant Balfour and Bob Walk among names you don’t want your pitcher to have.

[howieramone2]

Supply was low, demand was high, dumpster diving became fashionable. The smart mid-market teams avoided Mauer contracts.

[Riverbrian]

 

This is the crux of my argument as to why I'm not a fan of reclamation projects in general. You have to give them innings. If they work, great, but you're always trying stuff with them to see what you can get to work and eventually have to cut bait... Lots of losses happen in that scenario and they add up. 

 

I agree with you 98%. I'm OK with giving a reclamation project a chance but they have to EARN IT once you give it. You might run across an Anibel Sanchez along the way but Anibel Sanchez has to perform like Anibel Sanchez performed.  

 

When you purposely choose a reclamation project who is not getting the job done over a less expensive option you just commit yourself to another reclamation project the following year. 

 

Perez begat Bailey

Bailey begat whoever it will be next year.

 

Finding someone off the farm stops the cycle and saves you money in the process. 

 

It's such an easy fix... If a pitcher is performing... let them continue. If a pitcher is not performing... try someone else. 

[notoriousgod71]

We can only hope that Bailey is another Martin Perez.

 

I have nothing but disgust for both signings but Perez managed to put together several quality outings before the inevitable happened.

 

I will be very surprised if Bailey even gives us five or six quality starts (such a low bar) this season.

[jimbo92107]

 

So I'd say Bailey, as poor to average as he has been over his career, he still has had a career. Sort of, so he has at different points in time, had some success. Last year was one of those years. Whereas Perez started the year very hot, then he really faded down the stretch. I was shocked at how hard he was throwing at the beginning of the year, it seemed like he lost some of that velocity as the year wore on? Everyone was surprised at the 95-96 mph at the beginning of the year and they were comparing him to Johan Santana. So he definitely had the stuff at one point, then it disappeard? So I kinda though they would have brought him back, they had an option on him, maybe do a little more fixing, but they didn't. So now we have Bailey, he has done some stuff in his career, now we will see if the Twins can squeeze out one good year out of him.

Perez started off last year throwing something, a cutter I think, that looked like Liriano's slider. Almost unhittable. Plus his amped up heater, and he looked great. Then it seemed like both pitches went away around mid season. Odd.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Concur on paragraphs 1 and 2.

 

But IMO even signing Donaldson, or trading for a starter cant rescue this off season. Better, for sure, but they've already failed.

What else can they do and still fail?

[Twins1964]

 

I'll refrain from rolling out my now tired complaints about the offseason

 

I do like that you brought up Gibson. It was my understanding that we let Gibson go because we intended to add that money to a pile of other money to get 'impact' pitching. Which made sense....except that is not what we did.

 

We took 1/3 of the price of Gibson's contract to sign a likely inferior pitcher in addition to a 40 year old coming off a new-ish surgery to repair an older surgery to HIS ELBOW LIGAMENT IN HIS THROWING ARM! (holy crap!).

 

Yes, Gibson has an inflammatory bowel disease, but there is a MUCH better chance that this can be managed medically going forward (especially with an off season to get onto a stable regiment of steroid sparing chronic immunosuppression therapy)....

 

 than a torn ligament in the throwing elbow of a 40 year old pitcher.

 

In summary, Nick, you bring up an interesting discussion.point.... would we have been better off signing Gibson to 30 mil at 3 years or the dynamic duo above? 

 

I personally think that Hill will not be able to provide a significant impact and that Gibson will be better than Homer...so....interesting.

 

And remember in this thought experiment....we are back to having exactly ONE pitcher under contract AGAIN next off season!!!

 

Too bad the Twins FO didn’t have your phone number. I am sure they regret having to make moves without your brilliant insight. 

 

[DocBauer]

While I'm not thrilled with Bailey, I am 100% on board with any team taking on a flier for a rebound. You sometimes strike a bit of gold. The biggest difference between Bailey and Perez, IMO, is at least Bailey has had actual ML success in his career before being derailed by injury.

 

What I find so interesting is Bailey being signed to a ML deal and a guy like Chacin being signed to a milb deal after an awful 2019. But if we examine the past couple of years previous, Chacin would have the better, more recent track record. But Bailey gets the ML deal based on 2019 and especially his finish.

 

Interesting.

 

But while I am 100% on board with each of these different fliers, I am also 100% on board with cutting losses after an inexact time frame to move on.

 

With no insult intended, and I do "get" why the Twins stuck with Gibson and Perez as long as they did, how much better might Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer be prepared for 2020 if they had been given greater opportunity in 2019? Said it before and will say it again, would such a move really impacted the final season results negatively?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

While I'm not thrilled with Bailey, I am 100% on board with any team taking on a flier for a rebound. You sometimes strike a bit of gold. The biggest difference between Bailey and Perez, IMO, is at least Bailey has had actual ML success in his career before being derailed by injury.

What I find so interesting is Bailey being signed to a ML deal and a guy like Chacin being signed to a milb deal after an awful 2019. But if we examine the past couple of years previous, Chacin would have the better, more recent track record. But Bailey gets the ML deal based on 2019 and especially his finish.

Interesting.

But while I am 100% on board with each of these different fliers, I am also 100% on board with cutting losses after an inexact time frame to move on.

With no insult intended, and I do "get" why the Twins stuck with Gibson and Perez as long as they did, how much better might Dobnak, Thorpe and Smeltzer be prepared for 2020 if they had been given greater opportunity in 2019? Said it before and will say it again, would such a move really impacted the final season results negatively?

First, Bailey became a much better flyer once Maeda was acquired as a stabilizing force in the middle of the rotation. Initially, I hated the Bailey contract but once Maeda came along, it's a good deal. Like Sanchez in 2018, it's a good insurance policy until something better comes along. If you lose a couple of million in the process, big deal. That's literally 1.5% of the payroll as an insurance policy, then move on. This front office, thankfully, is willing to do that.

 

Second, Gibson and Perez are entirely different entities, and that you lumped them together shows a lack of analysis. Perez had a hot start but overperformed his peripherals massively. Gibson was a good pitcher who was struck down by a sickness but everyone had reason to believe he'd rebound. Unfortunately, Kyle didn't only not recover but also learned he had a disease as a result of that sickness (which was borne out of charity work, mind you). 

 

So, maybe kinda different...

[Riverbrian]

 

 

 

Second, Gibson and Perez are entirely different entities, and that you lumped them together shows a lack of analysis. Perez had a hot start but overperformed his peripherals massively. Gibson was a good pitcher who was struck down by a sickness but everyone had reason to believe he'd rebound. Unfortunately, Kyle didn't only not recover but also learned he had a disease as a result of that sickness (which was borne out of charity work, mind you). 

 

So, maybe kinda different...

 

Lack of Analysis? 

 

Of course they are entirely different entities but easily lumped together and placed into the same (We took no steps to prepare for this) file. 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/kyle-gibson-byron-buxton-injury-updates

 

The Twins were aware that Kyle was not 100% at any point during the season since getting E. Coli during the WINTER and according to the article, the UC diagnosis may have been mid-July. 

 

Neither the Twins or anybody else can claim the surprise card here.  

 

And of course... Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda were candidates for injury at any time. Because throughout baseball history... all 5 starters in any 5 man rotation have all remained healthy for an entire year... maybe zero times. 

 

What Doc is saying:

 

Perez remained in the rotation with a 6 plus ERA over an extended time frame and Gibson remained in the rotation at less than 100% since winter advancing to measurably weak around Mid-July, waking multiple times a night with a UC diagnosis in hand.  

 

The team just rides it out, hoping it would be all right before the playoffs arrive. A starter is not acquired at the trade deadline nor is anyone from the farm called up. 

 

Doc is joining me and others in prayer. Please don't let Bailey be Perez (Terrible) or Gibson (Not Healthy) and stay in the rotation regardless of these things. 

 

[akmanak]

Bailey is in his 15th year pitching and has had his whole arm pretty much replaced. He is a rental and hopefully can win a couple of games so we can dump him at the end of May because of how bad he is.