Front Page: The Remaining Options After Josh Donaldson

[Cooper Carlson]

The Twins seem to be going all in on Josh Donaldson after missing out on the premiere free agent starters. As the New Year begins, it looks like the Donaldson bidding war will end soon. He could end up in Minnesota, but it is likely he goes elsewhere. What’s next if the Twins miss out?Mitch Moreland: 1B, .252/.328/.507 with 19 HR and 0.7 fWAR in 2019.

 

If the Twins don’t end up with Donaldson I would be surprised if they looked for a third baseman over a first baseman. The only free agent worth moving Miguel Sano to first base would probably be Donaldson so I expect the Twins will look for a true first baseman like Moreland.

 

Moreland is 34 years old and has consistently been the same very average player since 2015. He will hit for a .250 average and slug .450 with 20 home runs every season. Moreland isn’t nearly as appealing as Donaldson but he would be cheap and he is a solid fielder at first base. Less upside than Cron, but now that he is with Detroit the Twins may have to look at Moreland.

 

Eric Thames: 1B, .247/.346/.505 with 25 HR and 1.9 fWAR in 2020.

 

Thames is another left-handed bat like Moreland that would fit nicely in the Twins lineup. He has been excellent with the bat in two of the last three years after returning from playing overseas to get his career back on track. Over the last three years he is averaging 24 home runs despite playing only 96 games in 2018.

 

The strikeouts and fielding are a couple of weak spots to his game, but the Twins have shown those are two weaknesses they are not scared of. If they sign Thames then he will step right into the role Cron had and he seems like the best remaining free agent to put up numbers that would be an obvious upgrade over Cron.

 

Todd Frazier: 3B, .251/.329/.443 with 21 HR and 1.9 fWAR in 2019.

 

If the Twins are really intrigued by the idea of adding a true third baseman and moving Sano to first base then Frazier would likely be the best third baseman remaining. The Twins were actually linked to him very early in the offseason but we are unaware of how interested they truly were. If the Twins would rather improve their infield defense than go for a better hitter like Thames, then adding Frazier would be the move, but they would have to move Sano to first base and that might cancel out the slight defensive improvement from Frazier. The 33-year old has had a couple underwhelming seasons in a row so it’ll be interesting to see if the Twins remain interested.

 

Internal options: Kirilloff, Gonzalez, Sano, Adrianza

 

This seems like the least likely route for the Twins to take, but they do have some players who could fill the hole at first base. Marwin Gonzalez, Miguel Sano, and Ehire Adrianza could all rotate between third base and first base which wouldn’t be the worst idea. All three are capable at third base, but the defense at first base is the biggest issue here. All three can play there once a week or so, but trusting any one of them to play first base consistently could be an issue.

 

My favorite minor league option that definitely won’t happen to start the season would be Alex Kirilloff at first base. He started playing the position last season and only played 35 games at the position, but he is an intriguing option for the position down the road. They will have to find a spot for his bat and the outfield is very crowded at the moment.

 

Other free agent options: Bird, Castellanos, Zobrist, etc

 

Some interesting options the Twins could pursue include Greg Bird, Nicholas Castellanos, or Ben Zobrist. Bird has had three really bad seasons in a row and really isn’t a good fielder either, but new TwinsDaily writer Rena outlined nicely why he could be a potential target. Castellanos is one of the best free agents available after Donaldson and he used to play third base so maybe the Twins could throw some money at him and tell him he’s going back to third or maybe even first base. His defense has always been really bad, but his offense has been excellent over the last couple seasons. Finally, Ben Zobrist is a free agent at 38-years old and maybe he still has something left in the tank after posting a 123 wRC+ just two years ago. He values playing for a contender, and he still plays solid defense and many different positions so maybe it’s worth a shot.

 

Hopefully the Twins can just go sign Josh Donaldson and make this post irrelevant, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Which of these players would you like to see the Twins go after? Did I miss someone you like? Join the discussion in the comments!

 

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[Heiny]

Just my opinion, but this has been a very disappointing off season after going into it with high hopes and expectations of going after a top end starter.  I would change my opinion if they would get Donaldson, but I agree that it is unlikely. Need to go all-in here or stop the big talk about trying to improve.  Just say it out loud.  "We are trying to save money".

[adorduan]

In a word, meh. If they sign Moreland or Thames why not just keep Cron?

[Cooper Carlson]

 

In a word, meh. If they sign Moreland or Thames why not just keep Cron?

I'm sure they would have, but they were waiting on the Donaldson decision when Cron was signed by Detroit.

[lukeduke1980]

Might be nice to have Moreland scooping throws

[bobs]

 

I'm sure they would have, but they were waiting on the Donaldson decision when Cron was signed by Detroit.

...which could look like a mistake if things don't fall right

[Cooper Carlson]

 

...which could look like a mistake if things don't fall right

Definitely. Although Thames at $6 million wouldn't be a downgrade from Cron.

[bobs]

  Moreland makes the most sense to me.  Good defensive 1B compared to others listed here.  He's a LH hitter so could possibly DH at times against tough RHP?  Would allow Marwin to move around more like he did in 2019.  

  Anyone know if Castellanos has ever played 1B?  We know he isn't a good defensive player but is athletic enough he might be able to make the move.  His bat will always play.

  Gonna be bad enough if they miss out on Donaldson.  But if waiting for him means they miss out on others too, that makes it even worse.

  Kiriloff isn't on 40-man but it wouldn't be hard to make room.  Would rather see him than Thames, Frazier, Bird, Zobrist.

[Cooper Carlson]

 

  Moreland makes the most sense to me.  Good defensive 1B compared to others listed here.  He's a LH hitter so could possibly DH at times against tough RHP?  Would allow Marwin to move around more like he did in 2019.  

  Anyone know if Castellanos has ever played 1B?  We know he isn't a good defensive player but is athletic enough he might be able to make the move.  His bat will always play.

  Gonna be bad enough if they miss out on Donaldson.  But if waiting for him means they miss out on others too, that makes it even worse.

  Kiriloff isn't on 40-man but it wouldn't be hard to make room.  Would rather see him than Thames, Frazier, Bird, Zobrist.

Castellanos has not played first base but he has played 1,054 games at third base. Moving him to first would result in a product similar to what moving Sano to first full time would be. Bad defense with a good bat.

[bobs]

I wonder if he's athletic enough to become a better 1B than Sano?  Seems risky...took Mauer a couple years to become a good defensive 1B.  We don't have a couple years and shaky defense at 1B and 3B?  Well, let's hope Donaldson signs soon! 

[bobs]

 

Definitely. Although Thames at $6 million wouldn't be a downgrade from Cron.

Do we have ANY idea how Kirilloff looked at 1B?  Or Rooker?  Are they realistic options at 1B for a team with WS aspirations?

[Cooper Carlson]

 

Do we have ANY idea how Kirilloff looked at 1B?  Or Rooker?  Are they realistic options at 1B for a team with WS aspirations?

Kirilloff had a .981 fielding% in just over 300 innings at first base. Unfortunately, advanced fielding stats are hard to find for minor leaguers. As for Brent Rooker, he didn't play a single inning at first base last season. Twins view him as an outfielder.

[SwainZag]

 

Do we have ANY idea how Kirilloff looked at 1B?  Or Rooker?  Are they realistic options at 1B for a team with WS aspirations?

 

Unless Kirilloff makes some strides with the bat, he isn't ready for the big leagues.  He posted a pretty par for the course OPS in AA.  The potential is there, but I would hardly doubt he's ready to take on a starting position on a playoff caliber team..

[ScooterDance]

This list, paired with a nice glass of offseason-whine, really raises the st...akes... for me on signing this guy.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

I wonder if he's athletic enough to become a better 1B than Sano?  Seems risky...took Mauer a couple years to become a good defensive 1B.  We don't have a couple years and shaky defense at 1B and 3B?  Well, let's hope Donaldson signs soon! 

My preference in all of these scenarios is to sign Moreland now. Get him signed before he finds another place to play. I don't think we're getting JD, I think his preference is Atl and he will let them match any offers we send his way. So if we have Moreland at 1B that leaves only 3B as the weak spot.

[jorgenswest]

Are we sure Moreland is a better hitter than Jake Cave? They have almost identical OPS over the last two years with Cave the slight edge at .795. You might need to platoon with Cave but Moreland is already a platoon 1B.

 

Why not put Cave in the line up until one of Larnach, Kirilloff or Rooker is ready?

 

I would play Cave at 1B this spring but Kepler is an alternative there. Cave hasn’t played 1B but there is a lot of time in spring to give he and the three others time at 1B. They might go with a Cave/Rooker platoon and send Astudillo to AAA.

 

Go big and sign Donaldson here or stay in house.

[Richard Swerdlick]

If we keep Sano at 3rd, I have 2 words for 1st base, Brent Rooker.

[Riverbrian]

Get a special bat and it really doesn't matter what position that special bat plays. 

 

If you are looking at positions... We need a good defensive CF more than we need any other position. 

 

If you don't sign Donaldson... Pivot to trade talks, Bryant, Starling Marte, Betts but think big. 

 

Someone like Moreland will only marginally (if at all) improve the team and actually get in the way of every single prospect on the farm. Is Moreland better than Cron? Cron was not retained. 

 

 

[TopGunn#22]

I just don't see the Twins improving much with "Meh" signings    Guys like Moreland, Thames, Frazier are just not gonna move the needle.  The Twins have been so "frugal" this off season that it's not unreasonable for fans to expect something BIG could still happen   That said, I give us a 10-15% chance of signing Donaldson so why not go big ??    What would it take to get Trevor Story?  The Rockies top prospect is a SS (Brendan Rogers) and they have a good 2B prospect that played a good deal of 2B last year (Garrett Sampson).     What would it take to get Trevor Story ? He's 27 years old and is 2nd year arbitration eligible.  He's a guy the Twins could build around no matter what develops with Lewis, Javier or Kela.  

[Doctor Wu]

Most of us are seduced by the idea of a power-hitting first baseman, or even expect such skills in these homer-happy days, but I still place some value on a player that can field the position well too. None of these names tossed around scream "sign me".  to my ears, but I think I'd rather have a veteran with warts than an unproven rookie at that position.

[terrydactyls]

Go after Trevor Storey and solve the horrible infield defense problem and bring in a big bat. Polanco goes to 2B, Arraez to 3B, and Sano to 1B. And while your talking to the Rockies, ask about Jon Gray and German Marquez.

[Shaitan]

I could see a 1 year placeholder signing like these names, with the option to dump them if a prospect is ready. The 26th roster spot may allow for that.

 

But I also expect a steady rotation between the IF and C. With Garver, Gonzalez, Adrianza, Arraez, and Austudillo also capable of playing multiple positions, I think we'll see a lot of that. They could simply rotate who plays at 1B and 3B in a rotation to keep everyone fresh. Then let Gordon, Rooker, and Kiriloff push their way onto the roster.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Are we sure Moreland is a better hitter than Jake Cave? They have almost identical OPS over the last two years with Cave the slight edge at .795.

But Cave needed a .361 BABIP to do that, compared to Moreland's .281.

 

Moreland does have a below-average .285 BABIP for his career, so maybe that won't improve, but Cave's number suggests he might not have a lot of wiggle room. (Cave's career minor league BABIP was also .360, but I wouldn't necessarily count on minor league BABIP to translate to MLB? Moreland's BABIP in the minors was .336. Cave's K rate has also jumped from 21.5% in the minors to 32.2% in MLB -- how much is he already selling out to get this production?)

 

Not that I like Moreland all that much either!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Go after Trevor Storey and solve the horrible infield defense problem and bring in a big bat. Polanco goes to 2B, Arraez to 3B, and Sano to 1B. And while your talking to the Rockies, ask about Jon Gray and German Marquez.

Story alone might require Lewis plus a pitching prospect, and that's only if the Rockies are actually willing to sell right now (and they may not be, depending on what they want to / can do with Arenado, Blackmon, Marquez, and Gray).

[AceWrigley]

Maybe a trade with the Mets for Dominic Smith?

[jorgenswest]

But Cave needed a .361 BABIP to do that, compared to Moreland's .281.

 

Moreland does have a below-average .285 BABIP for his career, so maybe that won't improve, but Cave's number suggests he might not have a lot of wiggle room. (Cave's career minor league BABIP was also .360, but I wouldn't necessarily count on minor league BABIP to translate to MLB? Moreland's BABIP in the minors was .336. Cave's K rate has also jumped from 21.5% in the minors to 32.2% in MLB -- how much is he already selling out to get this production?)

 

Not that I like Moreland all that much either!

Cave will get better but we might not see it in numbers if they are a BABIP inflated. Moreland will decline. Moreland needs a platoon partner and has no positional flexibility. He is a part time 1B only. I would bet on the in house options that include Cave in spite of the BABIP.

 

Your point is a good one though. Baseball Prospectus factors in things like BABIP and as a result Moreland’s DRC+ is better than Cave’s the last two years but not as good as a Cron over the two years.

 

I think we agree that the in house options are preferable to Moreland and I join your concern about Cave’s BABIP.

[HawksNest]

 

Story alone might require Lewis plus a pitching prospect, and that's only if the Rockies are actually willing to sell right now (and they may not be, depending on what they want to / can do with Arenado, Blackmon, Marquez, and Gray).

 

I'd take Story for Royce Lewis and prospects 10 times out of 10.

 

Story is a stud and we would be ecstatic if Royce Lewis became 60% of the player Story is right now

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Cave will get better but we might not see it in numbers if they are a BABIP inflated. Moreland will decline. Moreland needs a platoon partner and has no positional flexibility. He is a part time 1B only. I would bet on the in house options that include Cave in spite of the BABIP.

Well, obviously Cave isn't even a part time 1B yet, so that kind of limits his positional flexibility too.

 

Also, Cave doesn't seem any further out of platoon territory at this point than Moreland.

 

But by the time you're giving a 1B glove to Cave, or trying Kepler back there (Kepler hasn't started a game at 1B since 2015 in the minor leagues, and hasn't played more than 1 out at the position since 2016), you're probably just going to play Marwin there anyway, right? We're not that desperate at 1B, I think we're really just on the lookout for a Cron replacement (cheap 1B with upside) or new third baseman. Moreland fits neither of those categories.

[howeda7]

The Twins need to go on offense with Donaldson. Add a 5th year option if he gets to 600 PA's in year 4. Tell him he has 24 hours to accept. The Braves are sniffing around a trade with Colorado and we should not allow ourselves to be held hostage while they do.

[jrod23]

 

Just my opinion, but this has been a very disappointing off season after going into it with high hopes and expectations of going after a top end starter.  I would change my opinion if they would get Donaldson, but I agree that it is unlikely. Need to go all-in here or stop the big talk about trying to improve.  Just say it out loud.  "We are trying to save money".

 

Agreed on the disappointing off-season.  Tend to disagree/agree on the "We are trying to save money".  Look at the past few off-season big named free agents.  Bottom line, The money we offered was extremely comparable, if not matched what these FA's got, even less in some cases (Bumgarner).  So when it comes down to it, they DID NOT WANT TO COME HERE.  That's the free agent culture this organization needs to change.  In the past few years, the people we've acquired in free agency have made some great impacts, especially Cruz, but they were all maybe 2nd tier, 3rd tier, and 4th tier free agents at the time they signed.

 

So if you're talking Cole, Harper, Machado, Strasburg $$$, yeah, we won't go there.  However, we signed Mauer & Morneau at their primes.  8-years at $184 million (that was a large contract in 2010-11 when he signed).  We got a deal on Morneau for 6-years at $80 million.  You could argue they were every bit as good as Machado and Harper at that time.  Mauer had just come off a 28 HR season in 2009.