Front Page: Hayes: Twins To Sign Rich Hill & Homer Bailey

[Old Twins Cap]

 

They absolutely have not earned it.

 

Oh, oh, the thread is finding its depth now.

 

I say they do: the list is long on this team's successes.

 

Signing Polanco and Kepler to extensions. Stocking a lot of young pitching talent. Cruz. Arraez. Garver. Baldelli.  No stupid contracts. Wes Johnson? 101 wins? Most HRs ever? -- the one time they beat the Yanks, and which just might stand once they lower testosterone in their balls.

 

Oops.

 

Sure, it sucks to get Yanked in the playoffs again, but realistically, tough to beat Houston or New York.

 

And, impossible when you swing and play like Twins did.

 

Our franchise is much improved, on many levels.

 

 

[ashbury]

Are we talking about Homer Bailey pitching 150+ effective innings or simply occupying space on the mound?

We are talking about 2019, as the post I was responding to stated.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Big Mike is better because he's one year further from TommyJohn.

Bailey is better than Perez.

Hill is better than Gibson.

 

Most significantly Big Mike and Hill will be available for the playoffs.

 

Trust in Falvey and Levine - they have earned it

Pineda and Odorizzi just had career years basically. You want to bet on both of them repeating/improving at age 30+?

 

Remember where Gibson was, prior to 2019 or even at mid season? I'm not sure Bailey is better than that right now.

 

And Hill is basically better than no one until he can actually take the field.

 

And I wouldn't bet on Pineda and Hill being healthy for the playoffs, so it's a little early to start banking on that.

[Five minute major]

The absolute need to now sign Josh Donaldson has dramatically increased.  They must make a statement move for an impact player.  Since they missed on pitching, it HAS to be an offensive player.   They cannot enter next year with a lower payroll.  THEY CANNOT!!

[jud6312]

 

Oh, oh, the thread is finding its depth now.

 

I say they do: the list is long on this team's successes.

 

Signing Polanco and Kepler to extensions. Stocking a lot of young pitching talent. Cruz. Arraez. Garver. Baldelli.  No stupid contracts. Wes Johnson? 101 wins? Most HRs ever? -- the one time they beat the Yanks, and which just might stand once they lower testosterone in their balls.

 

Oops.

 

Sure, it sucks to get Yanked in the playoffs again, but realistically, tough to beat Houston or New York.

 

And, impossible when you swing and play like Twins did.

 

Our franchise is much improved, on many levels.

 

So success is measured on resigning your own players and jacking bombas (with a juiced ball) all the way to another 3-game sweep?

 

A number of the young arms they've stockpiled - Graterol, Balazovic, Thorpe, Colina - were already on hand when they got here.

 

Once they identify a need, identify the solution and acquire said solution, or these young players start contributing to the big league team - either directly or because they've been moved for big league pieces - I will trust them.

 

All I've seen so far is short-term, low-risk/low-reward moves on marginal veterans. A couple have hit, but most haven't.

 

For every Nelson Cruz they've pulled off there's a Blake Parker.

 

IMO, the jury is still out on them.

[old nurse]

 

And so did Homer Bailey.

Bailey pitched at a "role" or "solid" level depending on whose WAR calculation you chose to use

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Congratulations to Tom Fromming for advising the FO to sign Homer Bailey. I am truly impressed by your Tom chats on the comparison of Homer Bailey (player X) and Odorizzi and Berrios. Tom you are amazing.

[adorduan]

 

How about to start thinking about the budget if the sign our core players to long term deals and have a couple of bad contracts to deal with as well. It's not about being cheap.

 

Think about extensions for Berrios, Buxton, Garver, Rogers, & possibly Arraez for starters.

 

Yes, the Pohlad's are being cheap having a 130M budget. They could easily raise it up to 175M without blinking and still clear over 50M+ a year.

 

There is nothing saying they can't use the money they have left in budget for a trade either now or in July.

There is no reason to give Garver or Arraez extensions. None.

[DocBauer]

Read every post. Ready to weigh in. I had a personal list of a few flier guys I liked. (Not that I KNOW anything). Neither of these guys were on my list. These guys are not part of my prescription for 2020. The Doctor is NOT overly happy about these moves.

 

But whether it be life or Twins, I like to take a step back and look at the situation, weigh and examine everything, and try to see the big picture.

 

Again, NOT happy. And I'm not going to be until I see Donaldson, or a trade for a quality arm, hopefully both.

 

But with a step back, still hoping things are not done, I can offer a few points of "positivity" that should be considered.

 

1] While injuries have been an issue, Hill has been good to very good when on the mound. As recently as last season. He absolutely is a cheap mid season type acquisition that costs little. And if good enough to earn any of his incentives, the FO looks brilliant. There really is no risk here.

 

2] A few years back, Bailey had a nice run of a few good seasons before injury and such derailed him. For whatever reason(s), he had a bounceback in 2019 and a strong finish. Some decent/good previous success and said rebound doesn't look too bad for your your #4 or #5 SP. And that is what he was signed for. I think most of us were on board for a depth flier regardless.

 

3] Everyone, myself included, liked what the FO did EXCEPT for ignoring all the FA for the BP, except for Parker, and were confused and miffed greatly. But they had a vision/plan that we didn't see and by the time things settled down, they were right, and I will admit I was wrong.

 

They like their first 3 guys. They like their youngsters, obviously, and believe in what is coming up. They obviously have a vision and belief we all don't see or agree with at this time.

 

Once again, I'm not really happy. There still needs to be a couple smart moves made to build on this club and their potential. I'm not ready for torches and pitchforks yet because I've seen so much good they have done.

 

And my "positive spin" here isn't to convince you, or myself for that matter, that these were any kind of brilliant move! I only offer a step back perspective, after reflection, to say there may be a method in madness here to be examined and not simply dismissed out of frustration and impatience.

[prouster]

For a team like the Twins, though, obviously contending and with payroll and prospect resources to spare, doesn't it make more sense to do something more to mitigate that risk?

That would definitely be my personal preference. I can see the logic behind what they’re apparently doing, though. But yeah, this is the kind of roster that in theory should be supplemented at the top. Basically, my mantra is that there are multiple ways to win, and teams should be flexible enough to pivot when their initial plans don’t work out.

[h2oface]

Not even worth a comment, so 'no comment'. 

[ChiefsKid]

The Twins guaranteeing Rich (*$ing) Hill $12.5M for pitching barely 1/3rd of an effective season is the definition of an "overpay", if there is such a thing. Never mind that he's 40 years old and coming off surgery on his throwing arm. Going into the season, I wouldn't count on him being available come playoff time, if our 3 man rotation for half a season can get us there. Is there any other 40 year old you would guarantee 12.5M to for throwing 75 innings? Any??

 

Bailey is nothing more than a replacement level guy. Wrong side of 30 and on the decline. Also, he hasn't pitched more than 150 innings but once since turning 30, and only one time in his career posted an ERA+ north of 110.

 

 

I guess this is what we should expect from here out. Low Risk, Low Reward.

Any talk of "I'm sure the FO will acquire *somebody* before the season starts" is starting to feel like wishful thinking.

 

All the talk of 'aggresive' pursuit of 'impact pitching' was, to this point, a blatant lie. Theres absolutely *nothing* aggressive about ANYTHING this FO has ever done, up to this point.

 

Maybe Bailey puts together a fine, respectable season. Maybe Hill throws 90 innings of quality pitching. Maybe one of the young bucks surprises us and magically becomes a middle of the rotation arm.

 

For a young team with a solid core coming off of a lot of breakout performances, this offseason has been overwhelmingly disappointing.

[h2oface]

 

The Twins guaranteeing Rich (*$ing) Hill $12.5M for pitching barely 1/3rd of an effective season is the definition of an "overpay", if there is such a thing. Never mind that he's 40 years old and coming off surgery on his throwing arm. Going into the season, I wouldn't count on him being available come playoff time, if our 3 man rotation for half a season can get us there. Is there any other 40 year old you would guarantee 12.5M to for throwing 75 innings? Any?? Bailey is nothing more than a replacement level guy. 3M proves that. Wrong side of 30 and on the decline. I guess this is what we should expect from here out. Low Risk, Low Reward. Any talk of "I'm sure the FO will acquire *somebody* before the season starts" is starting to feel like wishful thinking. All the talk of 'aggresive' pursuit of 'impact pitching' was, to this point, a blatant lie. Theres absolutely *nothing* aggressive about ANYTHING this FO has ever done, up to this point. Maybe Bailey puts together a fine, respectable season. Maybe Hill throws 90 innings of quality pitching. Maybe one of the young bucks surprises us and magically becomes a middle of the rotation arm. For a young team with a solid core coming off of a lot of breakout performances, this offseason has been overwhelmingly disappointing.

 

"Hill’s deal includes $3 million in guarantees, MLB.com has confirmed, with escalators that could take it to $9.5 million with 75 innings or 15 starts, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI."

 

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/twins-sign-homer-bailey-rich-hill

 

That is some fuzzy math........ or did I miss something?

[shimrod]

"All the talk of 'aggressive' pursuit of 'impact pitching' was, to this point, a blatant lie."

 

Now you're catching on. To quote "Animal House" (minus the expletive), "you (screwed) up... you trusted us"

 

Not the first time either. Remember how increased Target Field revenue would go to payroll? That was a good one. 

 

 

[USAFChief]

"Hill’s deal includes $3 million in guarantees, MLB.com has confirmed, with escalators that could take it to $9.5 million with 75 innings or 15 starts, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI."

 

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/twins-sign-homer-bailey-rich-hill

 

That is some fuzzy math........ or did I miss something?

MLBTRADRUMORS has it as $3m guaranteed, with $9.5m in incentives, capping at $12.5m at 75 IP.

[ChiefsKid]

"Hill’s deal includes $3 million in guarantees, MLB.com has confirmed, with escalators that could take it to $9.5 million with 75 innings or 15 starts, according to Rob Bradford of WEEI."

 

https://www.mlb.com/twins/news/twins-sign-homer-bailey-rich-hill

 

That is some fuzzy math........ or did I miss something?

 

MLBTR says the deal has 9.5M in incentives, on top of the 3M base salary.

[h2oface]

MLBTRADRUMORS

 

"Both players secured one-year deals, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Hill is guaranteed $3MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. His contract includes a hefty $9.5MM in total available incentives which can be met by recording only 15 starts and/or 75 innings thrown."

 

I saw that, but they are just siting the same source - Rob Bradford -, and looks like, two people down from the source, the total might be relayed in a way that is offering confusion instead of clarity, and MLBTRADERUMERS even never totals the contact at $12.5 million (perhaps Jeff Todd left out a with - with total available incentives - in his haste?). Either way, only $3 million is guaranteed, not $12.5 million. I am sure we will get more comfirmation on actual terms......

[USAFChief]

Here's the breakdown of Hill's incentives:

 

$1 mill for 5 GS or 25 IP

$1 mill for 7 GS or 35 IP

$1 mill for 9 GS or 45 IP

$1.5 mill for 11 GS or 55 IP

$2 mill for 13 GS or 65 IP

$3 mill for 15 GS or 75 IP

not sure where musk21 got this info, but this was posted earlier in this thread.

 

9.5 in incentives, if this is accurate, for 75 IP.

[ChiefsKid]

MLBTRADRUMORS

 

"Both players secured one-year deals, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter). Hill is guaranteed $3MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets. His contract includes a hefty $9.5MM in total available incentives which can be met by recording only 15 starts and/or 75 innings thrown."

 

I saw that, but they are just siting the same source - Rob Bradford -, and looks like, two people down from the source, the total might be relayed in a way that is offering confusion instead of clarity. Either way, only $3 million is guaranteed, not $12.5 million. I am sure we will get more comfirmation on actual terms......

 

If the Twins only pay him the $3M, this signing will somehow be worse than it is right now.

Meaning, it didn't pan out and we're left starting Randy Dobnak in a playoff series. Again.

[USAFChief]

If the Twins only pay him the $3M, this signing will somehow be worse than it is right now.

Meaning, it didn't pan out and we're left starting Randy Dobnak in a playoff series. Again.

And for the record, Hill had UCL surgery on his left elbow in October. The most likely result, IMO, is he doesn't pitch at all.

[h2oface]

 

And for the record, Hill had UCL surgery on his left elbow in October. The most likely result, IMO, is he doesn't pitch at all.

 

That very well could be the case. I wonder how much medical vetting they did before the signing, and doctor updates? At least it isn't Tommy John surgery (again), but the primary revision surgery.

 

Like Tommy John surgery, primary revision surgery is performed to fix a tear in the UCL. It is less intrusive and requires a shorter rehabilitation period, but Hill’s age and injury history — which includes his Tommy John surgery in 2011 — could shrink his market.

 

https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2019-11-25/rich-hill-arm-surgery-free-agent-dodgers

 

Plus, I haven't heard anything about his knee, which gave him trouble in a September return from the IL last year......"scar tissue that had broken off from the area in which he suffered a strain of the medial collateral ligament in March."
https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2019-09-18/rich-hill-return-knee-injury-pitch-dodgers-padres

[MN_ExPat]

 

Bring back Terry Ryan. A far better dumpster diver was he. What a joke this org is.

 

You always have the option of joining the rest of the bandwagon Yankees fans .

[Halsey Hall]

I'm late to the party, but fine with it.  I never expected a big name signing anyway, so this can't hurt if one of the two shines.  Take what's left and sign Donaldson. 

[Richard Swerdlick]

Sounds good. Now let's get Josh Donaldson.

[jorgenswest]

i searched for other pitchers who have had primary revision surgery. I wasn’t successful at finding e apples of pitchers back in a half year. I really didn’t have success finding examples of pitchers with this surgery. I did run into several studies that weren’t helpful to me.

 

Is the same surgery that Tallion and Josh Rogers had last season? Tallion is not expected back until 2021.

 

The Twins won the deal and if he earns those incentives by pitching well he will earn the market rate for his play. I am less confident having searched that he will pitch effectively next year. Earlier I thought 25% but I would revise that down.

 

I would still do this deal. It does not stop them from signing Donaldson or taking on a good portion of Price’s contract. It is a gamble on a pitcher that has been very good when pitching for several years.

[beckmt]

If you believe that the Gastrol and some of the rest are ready by 2021 this is the right move. If you do not believe this it could be a disaster.

I would rather do this and use the extra money for 1 more signing and extend Berrios and Buxton at this time, possibly Sano also.  If they refuse, then Twins will have to look at trading them within the next year, so they just do not walk(even with a qualifing offer) and the end of 2022.  You have another year for most of them, but lets try and get it done now.

[sweetmusicviola16]

So if the odds are that against Hill even pitching in 2020 why waste 3mil? Between the two they will get a minimum of 10 mil. 10mil would have went a long ways in signing Hamels and would have quite possibly gotten Tehran. I get we don't want to give up our financial flexibility but both these signed for 1 year and are far better than what we just got.

[sampleSizeOfOne]

Hey look. Something happened.

 

I am content.

 

(Saying this before i read all 14 pages of comments. I waited to say something about Dozier going to the Dodgers in the next 24 hours, and i was playing catchup until the thread was locked.)

[cardsfan]

Homer Bailey had a 5.5 ERA sometime in August before facing the Royals twice, Angels, Giants and the Tigers. $7 million well you can pitch him against bad teams.

[Patrick Wozniak]

I'm pretty content with these moves. If Hill makes it back he should be fun to watch and at least Bailey finished the year strong so there's some hope. Mix in all the young starters and the Twins do have some depth and upside (especially in the 2nd half). I would love for them to sign/trade for one more starter and get Donaldson. If they do that, despite not getting one of the top FA pitchers, I would consider the off season a success.