Front Page: Hayes: Twins To Sign Rich Hill & Homer Bailey

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, Hill's upside might be getting overrated.

 

He was undoubtedly a productive major league pitcher the last few years, but his FIP- with the Dodgers the past 3 years was only 94 -- just a tick better than average. He'll be moving from the NL to the AL, from Dodger Stadium to Target Field.

 

Even by bWAR (so runs instead of FIP), his 2017-2018 seasons in LA were more solid than dominant. 2.1 and 1.5 bWAR in 135 and 132 innings, respectively -- less than 3 WAR per full season.

[Doctor Gast]

Very disappointed, the FO needed to go out there & get an impact arm or a breakout arm that we can keep for several years via trade. That`s our 1st priority to be a serious contender. Why are we hoarding trading prospects, when we can`t protect them all on the 40 man

[Cody Pirkl]

Homer Bailey is essentially a Kylre Gibson replacement which is just fine.

 

If you have an issue with Rich Hill however, I'd love to hear why. He wont take up a 40 man spot and we got him for $3m. He could be a huge boost down the stretch or contribute nothing and we forget about it. He isn't being sign to be relied on as seen by the lofty incentives.

 

I also think more moves are coming via trade. We'll have to wait and see.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Also, Hill's upside might be getting overrated.

 

He was undoubtedly a productive major league pitcher the last few years, but his FIP- with the Dodgers the past 3 years was only 94 -- just a tick better than average. He'll be moving from the NL to the AL, from Dodger Stadium to Target Field.

 

Even by bWAR (so runs instead of FIP), his 2017-2018 seasons in LA were more solid than dominant. 2.1 and 1.5 bWAR in 135 and 132 innings, respectively -- less than 3 WAR per full season.

 

Depends on whether you think he was unlucky from a HR allowed standpoint . . . his xFIP- numbers were better. He's so unusual in general that projecting him is difficult. 

[USAFChief]

I don't think their window closes before at least 2-3 of these young SPs are ready to make a real impact. We are looking at 6-12 months after the season starts for at least 1-3 of them. I like this approach, in spite of all the complaining on this site.

2 to 3 of the current AA starters are going to make a "real impact" in the next couple years?

 

When, in Twins history, was the last time that happened?

[cmoss84]

Let's take things at face value before giving up on our off-season. Nobody said these were huge, impact moves.

 

Can Bailey be a good #5? Make an argument against it if you don't think so.

 

Hill was signed to help make a late season/post-season run. If he reaches his incentives, it means we have done very well! Plain and simple!

Again, if you have a good argument against signing a $3mill lottery ticket with experience, I'd love to hear it!

 

These moves need to be looked at separately than impact moves we are all waiting for.

[yarnivek1972]

Both are a bit more than I expected by about $2-3M each. Rich Hill's guarantee of $3M isn't a bad gamble though. Still good signings though.

Guaranteeing $3 mil to a guy that will DEFINITELY miss half the year, is by no means certain to pitch AT ALL in 2020 and when he does he’ll be over 40. Not a bad gamble? They would probably love you in Vegas.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Individually these signings are “fine”. Add up everything and it’s all “fine”. I was just expecting more.

 

There’s still time, but it really does look like it this is what we can expect.

[ashbury]

Maybe we'll find out Homer Bailey is the great grandson of George Bailey and he'll have a wonderful life pitching for the the Twins.

Maybe we'll find out he's the great great grandnephew of the Irish Cream guy R.A. Bailey, and we'll be writing Drinking Games in his honor by midseason.

[USAFChief]

Let's take things at face value before giving up on our off-season. Nobody said these were huge, impact moves.

 

Can Bailey be a good #5? Make an argument against it if you don't think so.

 

Hill was signed to help make a late season/post-season run. If he reaches his incentives, it means we have done very well! Plain and simple!

Again, if you have a good argument against signing a $3mill lottery ticket with experience, I'd love to hear it!

 

These moves need to be looked at separately than impact moves we are all waiting for.

I would like to see the term "#5 starter" banned from existence. Or at least redefined to "my team's 5th best starter."

 

As it is, people use it to mean " a starter among the worst 20 percent of MLB starters."

 

That shouldn't be the goal of any team...having such a "5th starter." The goal should be to have 5 starters among the TOP 20 percent. Now maybe that's unrealistic, but the idea that having crappy starters is ok because they're "4th" or "5th" starters is how you end up having average to bad pitching.

 

It's not ok to have Homer Bailey because he's "only a 5th starter." The idea is to be BETTER than the other teams.

 

Not to mention

..as of today, Homer Bailey starts game 3, not game 5.

[Crackedfungo]

 

2 to 3 of the current AA starters are going to make a "real impact" in the next couple years?

When, in Twins history, was the last time that happened?

When in Twins history have they had this many plus pitchers (pitchers with 1 or more pitches at 60+ all at AA at the same time)?  The answer is NEVER.  We have been horrendous at assembling young pitchers with plus stuff in large groups.  We have the 1 or 2 here or there, and when the one fails, we are screwed.  All of Tier 1: Graterol, Balazovic, Duran, Tier 2: Colina, Ober, and Sands, and Tier 3: even Enlow, Chalmers and Canterino a bit later could be significant impact pitchers in 2-3 years or less.  A few should be at least as good as a Gibson, one to three maybe at Berrios level, or perhaps even better.  I don't think looking back into Twins history is a good barometer.  We have had a horrible pitching philosophy ('pitch to contact' no 'missing bats' and no 'power pitching focus') through many regimes, with terrible scouting and drafting of pitchers (Adam Johnson, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Alex Wimmers, Kyle Waldrop, Carlos Guitierrez ring a bell?).  Liriano and Johan were an EXCEPTION that we somewhat lucked into - they didn't really fit our philosophy, they just forced their way in due to performance.  The philosophy has clearly changed with this regime, and many of these new SP prospects have more 'stuff,' and didn't cost us First Round picks.  Thus, this is a different group of coaches and FO personnel with a different perception upon what constitutes effective pitching.  I believe it will prove to be more effective.  I have never been a fan of throwing BIG $ for past performance EXCEPT FOR a few that are closest to a sure thing for half their respective contract (Cole and Straus would fall into that camp, while I don't think Wheeler, Ryu or MadBum will).

[cmoss84]

I would like to see the term "#5 starter" banned from existence. Or at least redefined to "my team's 5th best starter."

As it is, people use it to mean " a starter among the worst 20 percent of MLB starters."

That shouldn't be the goal of any team...having such a "5th starter." The goal should be to have 5 starters among the TOP 20 percent. Now maybe that's unrealistic, but the idea that having crappy starters is ok because they're "4th" or "5th" starters is how you end up having average to bad pitching.

It's not ok to have Homer Bailey because he's "only a 5th starter." The idea is to be BETTER than the other teams.

Not to mention

..as of today, Homer Bailey starts game 3, not game 5.

Good teams have reliable 4th and 5th starters. Pineda last year? No?

[jorgenswest]

The Homer Bailey the second half of the season is playoff caliber and showed it in his late season starts against the Yankees and Astros. What is the likelihood he is that pitcher? Is it has high as 25% with the other split between league average, bad or injured?

 

What is the likelihood Hill will be healthy in the playoffs? If healthy I think he is playoff caliber but I would give him a 25% likelihood that he will be healthy in the playoffs with at least that likelihood that he will not pitch at all during the season.

 

The other hope right now is that at least one of Graterol, Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Duran or Balazovic is a playoff caliber pitcher by the end of the year.

 

The depth is there but no one is near that single impact pitcher to hang your hat on. Falvey earned this job with his reputation of finding and developing pitching. That ability needs to become reality in 2020.

[jkcarew]

You probably have 3 moves you 'need' to make before the season starts...

Get a starter to 'replace' Gibson

Get a starter for the front of the rotation

Get someone worthy of being an every-day 1st or 3rd baseman for a contender

 

This gets the first of these three things done...the one that moves the needle the least. What's the chances both of the next two get done? I wouldn't bet on it. Or if I were to make that bet, I feel like it would be a wager influenced by my heart, not my head.

 

IMO, Hill is the FO's idea of insurance against having to make a deadline deal for starting help. In fact, in the unlikely (at least I hope it's unlikely) event an implosion/big injuries, etc. has happened and the Twins are out of it at the deadline...I could see Hill never throwing a pitch for the Twins....or just enough pitches to prove his health. His cost could be artificially high at the 2020 deadline...left-handed, experienced/good reputation,...fresh, with a well-timed return to health.

[USAFChief]

Good teams have reliable 4th and 5th starters. Pineda last year? No?

Yes...good teams have reliable starters in slots 4 and 5.

 

What they dont have is "4th" and especially "5th" starters.

[USAFChief]

When in Twins history have they had this many plus pitchers (pitchers with 1 or more pitches at 60+ all at AA at the same time)? The answer is NEVER. We have been horrendous at assembling young pitchers with plus stuff in large groups. We have the 1 or 2 here or there, and when the one fails, we are screwed. All of Tier 1: Graterol, Balazovic, Duran, Tier 2: Colina, Ober, and Sands, and Tier 3: even Enlow, Chalmers and Canterino a bit later could be significant impact pitchers in 2-3 years or less. A few should be at least as good as a Gibson, one to three maybe at Berrios level, or perhaps even better. I don't think looking back into Twins history is a good barometer. We have had a horrible pitching philosophy ('pitch to contact' no 'missing bats' and no 'power pitching focus') through many regimes, with terrible scouting and drafting of pitchers (Adam Johnson, Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Alex Wimmers, Kyle Waldrop, Carlos Guitierrez ring a bell?). Liriano and Johan were an EXCEPTION that we somewhat lucked into - they didn't really fit our philosophy, they just forced their way in due to performance. The philosophy has clearly changed with this regime, and many of these new SP prospects have more 'stuff,' and didn't cost us First Round picks. Thus, this is a different group of coaches and FO personnel with a different perception upon what constitutes effective pitching. I believe it will prove to be more effective. I have never been a fan of throwing BIG $ for past performance EXCEPT FOR a few that are closest to a sure thing for half their respective contract (Cole and Straus would fall into that camp, while I don't think Wheeler, Ryu or MadBum will).

Even in the extremely unlikely event any of this happens, how does that help 2020?

[jud6312]

 

Homer Bailey's IP before the 2019 season (when he pitched 163 innings):

 

2018: 106.1

2017: 91.0

2016: 23.0

2015: 11.1

 

There needs to be more pitching acquired. Homer Bailey simply can't be counted on to give you 150 innings in 2019. If he gets injured in April and no other moves are made you are left with Berrios, Odo, and prospects. I truly believe an impact trade is still coming.

 

"Prospects." Aside from Graterol, I'm not sure that applies to the other three that are "ready."

[Otto von Ballpark]

What deadline moves? It's a 3M guaranteed deal, the team clearly hasn't put too much weight on the idea of Rich Hill being a shoe in for the rotation this year. I think every post I've written today has had the qualifier that I like these moves only if the team also makes a trade. I meant this winter, not in July. Rich Hill is a lotto ticket only and based on his contract, I think the Twins brass see it the same way.

 

As for Bailey being too expensive, the Royals only paid him the vet minimum salary last year as the Dodgers were still, and still are on the hook for the remainder of the Cincinnati contract.

By deadline moves, I mean what Hill's presumed arrival in June or July is displacing.

 

And by Bailey's cost, if the Twins like him for the top half of their rotation for 2020, where were they a couple months ago? The A's got him for virtually nothing. Remember when we were shopping for SP at the deadline? Were we not able to trade for Bailey when we had Gibson or Perez in our playoff rotation? That's making me wonder if we'll ever acquire a top of the rotation guy. I'm glad you're still optimistic, though.

[jud6312]

 

Maybe we'll find out he's the great great grandnephew of the Irish Cream guy R.A. Bailey, and we'll be writing Drinking Games in his honor by midseason.

 

Drink every time Homer Bailey puts a runner on base and try not to die from alcohol poisoning.

[jud6312]

 

Can Bailey be a good #5? Make an argument against it if you don't think so.
 

 

I present you with the career stats of Homer Bailey. The prosecution rests, your honor.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baileho02.shtml

[BrianTrottier]

 

No, it hasn't. 

    

    LOL...ok

Good input!

[cmoss84]

Yes...good teams have reliable starters in slots 4 and 5.

What they dont have is "4th" and especially "5th" starters.

Whatever you want to call it my friend!

[diehardtwinsfan]

woof... this was not what I had in mind when I wanted them to get pitching...

 

Very disappointed and hope I'm wrong. 

[jud6312]

 

Yes...good teams have reliable starters in slots 4 and 5.

What they dont have is "4th" and especially "5th" starters.

 

But do those teams have 5 or 6 5s like this team does? 

 

Strength in numbers, my friend.

[cmoss84]

I present you with the career stats of Homer Bailey. The prosecution rests, your honor.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baileho02.shtml

Not only does he look like Patrick Bateman...He had a good 2nd half stretch last year. I'm in.

[KirbyDome89]

 

That's not even close to what I said. I was only refuting the idea that Homer Bailey was a shoe in for regression.

Perez didn't improve as the season went on. He had a couple career months and reverted right back to the same poor pitcher he was in 18'. If that's the "improvement," we're hoping to get from Bailey then MN is better off looking elsewhere. 

 

[Crackedfungo]

 

Even in the extremely unlikely event any of this happens, how does that help 2020?

I believe Graterol will take one of the SP spots for a significant portion of 2020 by performance and future potential (they will manage his innings when Pineda and Hill return).  The only question is whether they will let him do so from April 1, or by June 1.  I believe Balazovic will be knocking on the door by July to August, and will make an impact by September that will be MUCH better than what we saw from Gibson and Perez last year at that time and may become a SP in meaningful games for stretch run (and will displace what we get from Bailey, Smeltzer, or Thorpe by that time - not sure about Dobnak).  I don't think Duran will make an impact in 2020, but I am not ready to ignore Ober - something is up with a guy dominating like that through multiple levels in a year - it typically means that they have really found something that may carry them from an outlier prospect to one with real potential (I am not really sure how he gets his results - but something is certainly 'plus' about him with those results).  He may arrive in September and force some consideration like Dobnak did last year - their rise was similar.

[rdehring]

Went to the Twins website and see that both Bailey and Hill are included on the 40-man roster, which now stands at 41.  Does that mean that we will soon learn that someone is going thru the DFA process?  Hill cannot be put on the 60-day IL until spring training.  Can they move Pineda to the restricted list now?

 

 

[Crackedfungo]

Don't sleep on Colina in 2020, either.  He may be more of a RP, but he seems to deliver at each level as a SP as soon as he has been given some innings to acclimate.  He could also add SP innings in late 2020, and be more of a contributor in 2021.  These are all fresh young arms that have performed very well in the minors, but more importantly, they have the STUFF that pitchers like Gonsalves and Stewart were unable to exhibit in upper MILB and MLB

[Matthew Lenz]

Story of the offseason (so far): Twins sign solid pieces. It’s not done, BUT to take the next step we need an impact player.

 

People talk about the Twins trading as if it’s as easy as snapping your fingers. It takes two to tango and why would any team be motivated to trade a player right now, other than saving a few million (in few cases much more), when you could theoretically get a better return around the deadline?