Front Page: Hayes: Twins To Sign Rich Hill & Homer Bailey

[Nash Walker]

I believe these signings are similar but different. Bailey seems to be a pure innings-eater with a a decent floor and maybe a *hair* of upside. Bailey had an ERA+ of 100 (exactly league average) last year for Oakland. For comparison, Martín Pérez had an ERA+ of 90 last year. Bailey is an upgrade from Pérez, and if Hill can return to throw 75-100 innings, he will be as strong as a #4 as you will find. We have seen it on Twitter, but in 58 2/3 innings for the Dodgers last year, Hill had a 2.45 ERA and 72 strikeouts. He is great when healthy. This rotation can win in October in my opinion:

 

1. A consistent José Berríos 

2. 2019 Jake Odorizzi

3. Second half 2019 Michael Pineda

4. Healthy Rich Hill

5. Oakland Athletics version of Homer Bailey

 

A trade for another starter would cap it off, but I am not dreading this rotation, I just wish there was a bit more firepower near the top. Depth is nice with Dobber, Thorpe, and Smeltz on the backend. Very Thad and Derek like signings, discounted with low risk, high upside on Homer and Hill. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

At Bailey's age there is little reason to give him more than 1 year.  If he has a pretty great year and puts up 3+ WAR, it's looking like a damn good signing for a 34 year old.....and you go from there.  An option would have been nice, but nothing wrong with a 1 year deal here.

That's true. But a 1 year deal, with no option, also undercuts some of the special upside value that's being touted for him in this thread. He's going to have to be really great in this 1 year, and we're going to have to put him in the right circumstances in the same one year, in order to claim much of that special upside value.

[labcrazy]

 

No, it hasn't.  

 

 

 

Your right...it cant slam shut... because to Falvine it was never open. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Also, if Bailey believes his new approach will bring him better results, he might just prefer to bet on himself. The Twins have been giving out quite a few option years to their free agents the last couple of years and both Bailey and Hill seemed like prime candidates to get one this year, if not from the Twins than from another club. So I might suspect they were the one's who didn't want to be tethered to a 2nd year.

That's also possible.

 

But again, it still limits the benefit. Doesn't mean it's a bad signing, but it limits the value we can extract from any special upside to Bailey, at pretty much one year.

[nicksaviking]

 

It doesn't seem like the Hill contract is a low risk contract.  He has $9.5 million in incentives which can be met by pitching 75 innings.  So that would be $12.5 million for 75 innings.

 

He better be very good in the first 70 innings or you probably have to cut him.  Which sounds like a good players contract, not a great team contract.

 

While many pitchers don't bounce back well from injury, Hill does it about every year. Since he's proven to have this ability to produce after an injury induced layoff, returning at all is a bigger concern than returning at diminished capacity.

 

But since Hill returning and providing subpar performances is certainly still a possibility, it gives the team all the more reason to make additional moves so they can bump Hill to the pen and avoid those 75 innings. An additional trade could help save 6.75M if Hill doesn't work out.

[nicksaviking]

 

Though I was optimistic also, at this point I think it's clear this is not going to happen, at least during the off-season. Between Pineda and Hill being slated to join the rotation during the year, and the relatively low need for a 5th starter early in the season, the Twins are going to go with young guys.

 

Two of them? I'm still betting against that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This rotation can win in October in my opinion:

 

1. A consistent José Berríos 

2. 2019 Jake Odorizzi

3. Second half 2019 Michael Pineda

4. Healthy Rich Hill

5. Oakland Athletics version of Homer Bailey

 

That's a lot of qualifiers. What are the odds it comes together like that?

 

Did the Twins have the payroll and prospect capital available this offseason to notably mitigate that risk?

[dex8425]

 

This isn’t what I envisioned impact pitching to look like. I chuckle because one of our members jud sarcastically said Bailey was going to be a Twin when everyone was still available. He didn’t know how painfully accurate he was at the time...

Somebody in one thread also was seriously arguing for signing Rich Hill specifically. 

I'm definitely not excited about Homer Bailey for the same price as Martin Perez 2019. Please give him a short short leash. 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Only 35 starting pitchers posted a higher WAR in 2019 than Bailey's 2.9. He was ahead of Jon Lester, Robbie Ray, Yu Darvish, Sandy Alcantara, and Wade Miley among others. Madison Bumgarner posted a 3.2 in comparison.

Whether you want to perceive it or not, Homer Bailey is an 'impact' pitching signing and a really great move by this front office.

 

 

ERA well over 4, closer to 5. 4 seasons of even worse ball before last year with ERA's in the 6's. If he was better than all those guys, he would have been sought after. As such, he is NOT and is a dumpster dive. 

Expect him to be at best what you got out of Perez last season. At worst, he is Kohl Stewart. At least Stewart was young. 

 

Spin all you want, this is Sydney Ponson jr.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Kind of impossible to grade an off season before it is over. You really can't even access something like a mid-term grade because you don't have the full context yet. We're still 2 days away from the day they signed Cruz last year. Just sayin.

To continue the analogy: 

 

We keep hearing "there's time left." What goes ignored is that poor past performance makes it exponentially more difficult to achieve a high mark. The Twins are the like the kid who gets a D and a C- on the first two exams but maintains he'll just ace the final. We might still be 7 weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting, but all passable FAs (the least painful route to adding a front end arm) are gone, which makes the task of landing a starter before spring more daunting. Teams like AZ (Ray) and NYM (Thor) look like they're going to at least start the season trying to win their respective divisions. How many other realistic targets do the Twins have? How many other teams also need/want pitching? Even if the Twins identify an arm to go after, what has this FO done to suggest they're willing to pay the necessary price? So sure, there's time, but that argument is closing in on itself.

[AceWrigley]

Maybe we'll find out Homer Bailey is the great grandson of George Bailey and he'll have a wonderful life pitching for the Twins.

 

Very good split-finger fastball which he upped to using almost 27% last year. Held hitters to an .182 average with it and generated a 38.2% whiff rate. Results might have been helped by the fact that a lot of pitchers ditched their sinkers while pursuing upper strike zone whiffs and hitters struggled with his sinker. Jack Morris probably likes this signing.

 

Both fastball and splitter are good pitches, others ... not so good. Used to have an elite slider pre Tommy John then Bone Spur Surgery.

 

Known as a very hard worker. Who knows, maybe with full post-TJ health and Wes Johnson's pitching mojo he'll have a nice season for the Twins.

[MMMordabito]

 

The downside to signing 2 guys is that it pretty much closes the door on an off-season trade for a starting pitcher. The only remaining (non prospect) upgrade possibility is someone getting hurt/being really bad and the Twins making a deadline deal (which fans have reason to be skeptical about). After all, the Twins' failure to get Stroman last deadline is a big part of the problem they now face.

 

How do you know that the FO didn't look at Stroman's GB% and think "this isn't going to work very well with our infield"?  Like Keuchel, I don't think he's a good fit here.  

 

Also, at this point, won't the deadline market likely have more stock on the shelves.  I can listen to the sentiment that the team won't do anything anyway when the deadline rolls around, but the current market (FA or Trade) doesn't look high on the "impact" stock anyway at least relative to actual availability or cost in either long term payroll flexibility or prospects.  

 

The interesting names seem to be on teams that want to see where their team is at (Ray and Gray) or don't want to sell low based on a bad half or full season (Archer and Boyd).

[KirbyDome89]

 

Well Perez wasn't good in 2019, but he was significantly better than in 2018. If Bailey's new approach holds it will be a good deal for the 5th starter. If he improves at the same rate as Perez did, he'd be a really good pitcher.

Perez was a liability by the end of last season. I wouldn't count him as anything close to a success story for this FO. Has the bar for rotation spots really been lowered all the way to "hope he has a career 2 months that make his season look middling?"

[nicksaviking]

 

That's also possible.

 

But again, it still limits the benefit. Doesn't mean it's a bad signing, but it limits the value we can extract from any special upside to Bailey, at pretty much one year.

 

I guess his value isn't really what would be at the forefront of a Homer Bailey deal for me. I don't think the Twins will get to any kind of uncomfortable payroll situation and I expect them to compete again so I don't imagine he'd get traded. 

 

To me just looks like a better bet to be reliable rotation piece than the Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe alternatives.

[mrtwinsfan]

Rich is over the Hill and only a Homer would like this Bailey Guy,

[Battle ur tail off]

 

But why?  There should be absolutely zero to not like about the Hill signing.  It's a low cost, possible high reward move that will not be known until midseason at best.  I can see being irritated with Bailey signing because it's pretty much replacing Gibson, but I don't see how them together would irritate you over one or the other.  

 

It's not the actual signings themselves people don't like. If this were looked at as a move signing 2 guys to basically fill one spot in the rotation as a 5th starter, no one would have a problem with it. In fact, I think it would be great to figure on 180 innings from the 2 of these guys combined to make up that 5th role.

 

The problem is, this is what they call impact pitching. This will be played as 2 guys that are excellent and will be mainstays in the rotation. There won't be a trade, not one for anyone meaningful. There is no one left in FA that is better than any of the guys we already have in the system. 

 

There is also the more of the same feeling from everyone here. They had a massvie chance this offseason to do something to substantially improve the club with the money and prospects they have available. As it sits, we are stuck in 2012 picking up the same type of guys we did when we all knew there was no chance. It shows fans that no one in that front office gives a hoot about any of us. They care about saving money and being the smartest executives in the league, no balls, no chances, value type stuff at every turn.

[nicksaviking]

 

Perez was a liability by the end of last season. I wouldn't count him as anything close to a success story for this FO. Has the bar for rotation spots really been lowered all the way to "hope he has a career 2 months that make his season look middling?"

 

That's not even close to what I said. I was only refuting the idea that Homer Bailey was a shoe in for regression.

[Crackedfungo]

 

I agree.  They must really believe the farm is going to produce what they need.  I sure hope Graterol, Duran and Balazovic turn into something this year or next year could be brutal for us.

That is EXACTLY what they are thinking.  With as many upcoming SPs they have (6) at AA that have REAL plus potential with at least one to two pitches, I think they are following a path that will enable this to happen.  They realize that they must build their own SP staff, as opposed to over-paying for past performance.  I am all for it.  I don't think their window closes before at least 2-3 of these young SPs are ready to make a real impact.  We are looking at 6-12 months after the season starts for at least 1-3 of them.  I like this approach, in spite of all the complaining on this site.  I don't want a Ryu or MadBum underperforming for 3 more years (after 1-2 ok ones), or to be hamstrung for 4-6 years with a Straus or Cole contract, if it comes at the expense of getting 2-3 of our own the experience they need to be Berrios type contributors in 2-3 years..  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

While many pitchers don't bounce back well from injury, Hill does it about every year. Since he's proven to have this ability to produce after an injury induced layoff, returning at all is a bigger concern than returning at diminished capacity.

 

But since Hill returning and providing subpar performances is certainly still a possibility, it gives the team all the more reason to make additional moves so they can bump Hill to the pen and avoid those 75 innings. An additional trade could help save 6.75M if Hill doesn't work out.

I don't know about this. First of all, in 2019, Hill pitched notably fewer total innings, fewer innings per start, saw his FIP rise for the 4th straight year, and walked 4 in his lone abbreviated postseason start. We may already have seen diminishing returns in his ability to bounce back, especially as it relates to a postseason hopeful club.

 

And if Hill isn't ready until at least June or July, the Twins may not have much if any time to move to a plan B. By the time they get a look at what Hill can do, the trade deadline may be past. (And even if they don't get a look at Hill by then, or if his results are less than stellar, I could see them betting on Hill to come back in August rather than making a notable deadline move otherwise. The 2019 deadline result wasn't a shutout for us, but it doesn't give me a lot of confidence going forward either. I can't help but wonder if Homer Bailey was too expensive for this FO at the 2019 deadline...)

[nicksaviking]

 

 

 

The problem is, this is what they call impact pitching. This will be played as 2 guys that are excellent and will be mainstays in the rotation. There won't be a trade, not one for anyone meaningful. 

 

Why don't you wait until they actually call these guys "impact pitching" and fail to make a trade for some this winter before stating it as fact.

[drivlikejehu]

 

How do you know that the FO didn't look at Stroman's GB% and think "this isn't going to work very well with our infield"?  Like Keuchel, I don't think he's a good fit here.  

 

I'm not crazy about him or anything, but the problem is that proven rotation commodities are hard to come by. I was fine with the Twins passing if they figured out something else, but they haven't. 

[jud6312]

To those that love the Hill signing: if they'd signed him for $25 million would you like it?

 

Because with knowing he's going to miss half the season and giving him easily attainable (for anyone but him) escalators, they're essentially saying he's a $25 million guy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Bailey had an ERA+ of 100 (exactly league average) last year for Oakland. For comparison, Martín Pérez had an ERA+ of 90 last year. Bailey is an upgrade from Pérez

And Pérez's ultimate insignificance to the 2019 Twins, especially in the postseason, calls into question how significant this upgrade from 90 to 100 ERA+ might actually be.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Why don't you wait until they actually call these guys "impact pitching" and fail to make a trade for some this winter before stating it as fact.

 

Been around too long. 

 

Expect the press conference in a week or so when the signings become official. 

[raindog]

 

To those that love the Hill signing: if they'd signed him for $25 million would you like it?

Because with knowing he's going to miss half the season and giving him easily attainable (for anyone but him) escalators, they're essentially saying he's a $25 million guy.

 

When he's healthy, yes he's worth that much money. And if the's not..that's not what they're paying him, so who cares?

 

I don't have a problem with the Hill signing. I don't care for Bailey, and I don't care for the lack of other moves. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I don't know about this. First of all, in 2019, Hill pitched notably fewer total innings, fewer innings per start, saw his FIP rise for the 4th straight year, and walked 4 in his lone abbreviated postseason start. We may already have seen diminishing returns in his ability to bounce back, especially as it relates to a postseason hopeful club.

 

And if Hill isn't ready until at least June or July, the Twins may not have much if any time to move to a plan B. By the time they get a look at what Hill can do, the trade deadline may be past. (And even if they don't get a look at Hill by then, or if his results are less than stellar, I could see them betting on Hill to come back in August rather than making a notable deadline move otherwise. The 2019 deadline result wasn't a shutout for us, but it doesn't give me a lot of confidence going forward either. I can't help but wonder if Homer Bailey was too expensive for this FO at the 2019 deadline...)

 

What deadline moves? It's a 3M guaranteed deal, the team clearly hasn't put too much weight on the idea of Rich Hill being a shoe in for the rotation this year. I think every post I've written today has had the qualifier that I like these moves only if the team also makes a trade. I meant this winter, not in July. Rich Hill is a lotto ticket only and based on his contract, I think the Twins brass see it the same way.

 

As for Bailey being too expensive, the Royals only paid him the vet minimum salary last year as the Dodgers were still, and still are on the hook for the remainder of the Cincinnati contract.

[crapforks]

Hill has been a Statcast darling for a while with spin rate and such. He, his career, and his pitches are anomalies. I hope the Twins see the type of person to relay information to other pitchers and coaches. Help the team unlock some of the Rich Hill secret sauce.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Some folks here are promoting Bailey for having a better FIP than ERA last year.

 

Some are also championing Hill, when he had a much worse FIP than ERA last year.

 

Are the Twins successfully betting on both sides of the FIP/ERA scale with these two moves?

[CharlieDee]

So after all the talk, and all the speculation,these are the guys we sign?  A very average aging starter and a very part time 40 year old?... Congratulations Falvine!

[Matthew Taylor]

Homer Bailey's IP before the 2019 season (when he pitched 163 innings):

 

2018: 106.1

2017: 91.0

2016: 23.0

2015: 11.1

 

There needs to be more pitching acquired. Homer Bailey simply can't be counted on to give you 150 innings in 2019. If he gets injured in April and no other moves are made you are left with Berrios, Odo, and prospects. I truly believe an impact trade is still coming.