Front Page: Hayes: Twins To Sign Rich Hill & Homer Bailey

[akmanak]

I don't care about these pitchers, hell they are an upgrade. Now because of these medicore signings it is time to sign Donaldson. If they pull that off I would give the off-season grade a C+ which is way better than the F that they had.

[SmellEm]

So there's our rotation. No impact free agent and no impact trade. We got swept by the Yankees, they add the best pitcher in baseball and we hope we can get Gibson/Perez level production from a guy whose ceiling is mediocre and the most injured pitcher in MLB history. Eagerly waiting to hear that we made a competitive offer to Donaldson but he chose Atlanta or DC for reasons. Great job on the front office for dropping this on a holiday so maybe no one will notice. What a joke.

[jud6312]

 

So there's our rotation. No impact free agent and no impact trade. We got swept by the Yankees, they add the best pitcher in baseball and we hope we can get Gibson/Perez level production from a guy whose ceiling is mediocre and the most injured pitcher in MLB history. Eagerly waiting to hear that we made a competitive offer to Donaldson but he chose Atlanta or DC for reasons. Great job on the front office for dropping this on a holiday so maybe no one will notice. What a joke.

 

SO competitive - the were right there. But then Donaldson decided that the climate of [insert other city here] was much more accommodating for his love of soap carving.

[Crackedfungo]

 

Even in the extremely unlikely event any of this happens, how does that help 2020?

As I said in a past post, take a look at Cleveland from 2016 forward.  Bieber, Civale, (both 24 years old and up for last few years), and Clevinger (29 years old, and brought up in 2016 permanently) all had less or equal 'stuff' than 6 of our 9 and equal or less performance than the same in the minors, and are now the core of Cleveland's pitching staff.  Cleveland mangement made the decision WHILE IN THEIR WINDOW to move these guys into the rotation in 2016, 2018, and 2019.  Falvey was there at that time (or on the front of end of it).  Perhaps he has the same plan here, and KNOWS that these Twins SP prospects are similar (or better?) and could complete the same transformation of the Twins SP Staff.  We hired Falvey for a reason, and he has a track record with these types of developments in Cleveland.  Like I said prior, if not NOW (bring 1-2 up each year), then WHEN?!?  You cannot keep throwing dollars at depreciating SP assets while letting your languish in MiLB - it simply makes NO SENSE.  Also, you can do it WHILE IN THEIR WINDOW, as Cleveland proved.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

It's a pretty cheap bet. After last season I think we saw the Twins prefer the splitter to the two seamer, which Bailey himself shifted more heavily towards last year. I wouldn't be surprised if the club saw a like-minded approach in Bailey and thought last year's results may be more indicative of his numbers going forward than whatever stagnant non-sense was occurring back in Cincinnati.

 

The bet is not doing something better, not the money. The money is irrelevant. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Went to the Twins website and see that both Bailey and Hill are included on the 40-man roster, which now stands at 41. Does that mean that we will soon learn that someone is going thru the DFA process? Hill cannot be put on the 60-day IL until spring training. Can they move Pineda to the restricted list now?

Yes, Pineda is on the restricted list already. So we should be right at 40 now.

[nicksaviking]

 

By deadline moves, I mean what Hill's presumed arrival in June or July is displacing.

And by Bailey's cost, if the Twins like him for the top half of their rotation for 2020, where were they a couple months ago? The A's got him for virtually nothing. Remember when we were shopping for SP at the deadline? Were we not able to trade for Bailey when we had Gibson or Perez in our playoff rotation? That's making me wonder if we'll ever acquire a top of the rotation guy. I'm glad you're still optimistic, though.

 

Well come July I'm guessing the Twins will have a better read on Hill's timeline and since they only owe him 3M if they kick him to the curb (or bullpen) or 9M if they give him a long leash, I'm guessing his presence isn't going to be what would stop them from acquiring other players should Hill's outlook become questionable.

 

As for Bailey last year, no idea why they had no interest, I was just disputing it was about money. As for me being optimistic? I've wanted trades over free agents all off season and while the lack of top free agents and the signing of lotto tickets and back of the rotation arms is understandably disappointing folks, those things are more supportive of the idea of getting a bigger name via trade, so yeah, I'll be optimistic until it either doesn't happen or until an arm I like is traded to a team that's not the Twins.

 

 

[SmellEm]

How big of a disaster would this off-season be if Odorizzi's agent was good at his job?

[Crackedfungo]

As of right now, I would trade ANY Twins SP for Bieber or Clevinger EXCEPT Berrios.  Not sure about Civale yet, but he looks good.  I would love to have Graterol/early and Balazovic/later move up this year permanently and push for a SP spot, any of Duran/Colina/Ober move up next year semi or permanently for SP spots.  This would change the whole composition of our SP needs in 2021 and 2022.  You simply have to force them to compete for a spot, and some will break through and perform, or you move on to the next wave.  Then, you fill in some gaps with FA or Trade, Re-sign Berrios and Odo, and you have spots 3-5 covered with young controlled talent (Cleveland did this while paying Kluber, then moved on from him and form Bauer).  It CAN BE DONE, and it is the BEST WAY to develop SP in ANY market.  Our dicking around with Stewart, Gonsalves, and Romero while signing dumpster trash (and pitching Slegers, Milone, Albers, and other AAAA trash in MLB), was not the right approach - and it is costing us now.  Filling out 1-5 with vets is simply not a way to evolve to a young and long-term affordable staff with some surprise #1s and high performers.  We are never going to attract or buy someone else's #1 - just not going to happen - we are NOT a destination in 'fly over' country.  Expecting otherwise is obtuse.  We need to develop our own #1's and likely #2's - I think Falvey understands this better than anybody we could have hired.

[USAFChief]

As of right now, I would trade ANY Twins SP for Bieber or Clevinger EXCEPT Berrios. Not sure about Civale yet, but he looks good. I would love to have Graterol/early and Balazovic/later move up this year permanently and push for a SP spot, any of Duran/Colina/Ober move up next year semi or permanently for SP spots. This would change the whole composition of our SP needs in 2021 and 2022. You simply have to force them to compete for a spot, and some will break through and perform, or you move on to the next wave. Then, you fill in some gaps with FA or Trade, Re-sign Berrios and Odo, and you have spots 3-5 covered with young controlled talent (Cleveland did this while paying Kluber, then moved on from him and form Bauer). It CAN BE DONE, and it is the BEST WAY to develop SP in ANY market. Our dicking around with Stewart, Gonsalves, and Romero while signing dumpster trash (and pitching Slegers, Milone, Albers, and other AAAA trash in MLB), was not the right approach - and it is costing us now. Filling out 1-5 with vets is simply not a way to evolve to a young and long-term affordable staff with some surprise #1s and high performers. We are never going to attract or buy someone else's #1 - just not going to happen - we are NOT a destination in 'fly over' country. Expecting otherwise is obtuse. We need to develop our own #1's and likely #2's - I think Falvey understands this better than anybody we could have hired.

Stewart, Gonsalves, and Romero...its ironic you bring them up, since a couple years ago they'd have been the ones being touted as the "next wave" ready to dominate by midseason. All they needed was a chance!

[Mike Sixel]

 

Stewart, Gonsalves, and Romero...its ironic you bring them up, since a couple years ago they'd have been the ones being touted as the "next wave" ready to dominate by midseason. All they needed was a chance!

 

And Jay. And Gordon. 

[rdehring]

 

How big of a disaster would this off-season be if Odorizzi's agent was good at his job?

How do you know he isn't? 

 

Were you on the line when they discussed whatever they discussed?  Were you with them if/when they met?  If not, then you have no idea what was discussed when Odorizzi was making his decision.  For all you know, his agent was recommending against it (I also wasn't there and don't know), when Odorizzi made his decision.

[Musk21]

Here's the breakdown of Hill's incentives:

 

$1 mill for 5 GS or 25 IP

$1 mill for 7 GS or 35 IP

$1 mill for 9 GS or 45 IP

$1.5 mill for 11 GS or 55 IP

$2 mill for 13 GS or 65 IP

$3 mill for 15 GS or 75 IP

 

[jud6312]

It's almost like Thad and Derek are mad that the team was competitive in year 3 of the immaculate "5 year plan" so they're punishing them with more dumpster diving.

[USAFChief]

Here's the breakdown of Hill's incentives:

 

$1 mill for 5 GS or 25 IP

$1 mill for 7 GS or 35 IP

$1 mill for 9 GS or 45 IP

$1.5 mill for 11 GS or 55 IP

$2 mill for 13 GS or 65 IP

$3 mill for 15 GS or 75 IP

$12.5m for 75 innings. Not even effective dumpster diving.

[wabene]

From the other thread:

 

 

 

True, although Cruz was just a 1 year FA deal himself. And after Cruz, we signed Parker, Perez, and Marwin -- interesting moves but probably of limited impact.

 

I wouldn't say that example suggests a lot more "impact" activity remains this winter.

That is true but I suggest that it suggests nothing.We do not have the data yet.

[Brock Beauchamp]

But why? There should be absolutely zero to not like about the Hill signing. It's a low cost, possible high reward move that will not be known until midseason at best. I can see being irritated with Bailey signing because it's pretty much replacing Gibson, but I don't see how them together would irritate you over one or the other.

Upon further reflection, it’s because signing both is an indication that there will be no additional pitching acquisitions.

[jud6312]

Just so I don't run that Homer GIF into the ground, I found this one:

 

[nicksaviking]

 

$12.5m for 75 innings. Not even effective dumpster diving.

 

Almost like Rich Hill's aren't typically found in a dumpster.

[nicksaviking]

 

Upon further reflection, it’s because signing both is an indication that there will be no additional pitching acquisitions.

 

I couldn't disagree more. Hill is only guaranteed 3M if he does nothing but nearly 10M if they set him loose on the mound. They have nearly a 7M incentive not to break Hill's "Only break in an emergency" seal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well come July I'm guessing the Twins will have a better read on Hill's timeline and since they only owe him 3M if they kick him to the curb (or bullpen) or 9M if they give him a long leash, I'm guessing his presence isn't going to be what would stop them from acquiring other players should Hill's outlook become questionable.

 

Well, Hill's outlook is by definition questionable. Even if you have him healthy and performing on July 31, I don't think you would get good odds of that lasting until Aug. 15.

 

And while they can technically release him at any time and only be out $3 mil, that generally doesn't happen on a practical level. They will wait until he is ready, and then give him a shot to pitch. In both aspects, we will be at an information disadvantage compared to a more traditional midseason acquisition.

 

Edit to add: and unless Hill is really bad, I think we'd risk angering a lot of players and agents and maybe even inviting a grievance if we try to move him to the pen to save on these incentives. There's risk if he's just a league-average type too.

[SwainZag]

 

Upon further reflection, it’s because signing both is an indication that there will be no additional pitching acquisitions.

 

How would signing Hill tell you that at all?  Who knows when and if the guy will be ready to pitch.  The timeline of July or midseason is pretty cloudy.  It's a low risk lottery ticket where if he comes back strong it will look like an insanely intelligent signing.  If he has complications, or comes back and looks done, they will be out $3M.  

 

 

[USAFChief]

Almost like Rich Hill's aren't typically found in a dumpster.

rather ironic given the post immediately following.

[nicksaviking]

 

Well, Hill's outlook is by definition questionable. Even if you have him healthy and performing on July 31, I don't think you would get good odds of that lasting until Aug. 15.

And while they can technically release him at any time and only be out $3 mil, that generally doesn't happen on a practical level. They will wait until he is ready, and then give him a shot to pitch. In both aspects, we will be at an information disadvantage compared to a more traditional midseason acquisition.

Edit to add: and unless Hill is really bad, I think we'd risk angering a lot of players and agents and maybe even inviting a grievance if we try to move him to the pen to save on these incentives. There's risk if he's just a league-average type too.

 

If the Twins have a full rotation performing well and Hill's best spot is the pen no one will be up in arms. They will have incentive to do just that.

 

Which also makes sense of why Hill's incentive is based on either starts OR innings pitched. You don't see that often, if ever. It gives the Twins the ability to avoid the top of the incentive scale if Hill is not needed in the rotation while still allowing Hill the ability to recoup plenty of incentives if healthy and capable, from the pen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

That is true but I suggest that it suggests nothing.We do not have the data yet.

We know all of the FA SP options are gone.

 

And we have 3 years of their trading activity, and they have never been particularly aggressive trade buyers, even looking for a SP at the deadline in 101 win season.

 

It's not conclusive, of course, but it is data that leans toward pessimism at this point.

[nicksaviking]

rather ironic given the post immediately following.

How so? Rich Hill has been one of the best pitchers in the league when he's healthy. People didn't hold that against Ryu.

 

But mostly, calling people garbage is an awful thing to do.

[prouster]

I haven’t read every post in this thread, so apologies if I’m repeating anyone else’s point.

 

It sure seems like the strategy is to patch holes in the pitching staff with veterans on short term contracts, under the expectation that the prospects will take their place. It’s definitely not the most exciting strategy, and there is plenty of risk associated with it. For a team like the Twins, though, it does make sense. Graterol, Duran, and Balazovic could conceivably all be in the rotation starting next year, pitching as well as some of the costlier and shorter term free agents. I’m not saying that’s anything close to a certain outcome, but it seems to be the strategy. I can get behind it, I guess.

[USAFChief]

 

 

Also, calling humans garbage is an awful thing to do.

who did that?

[jud6312]

 

How so? Rich Hill has been one of the best pitchers in the league when he's healthy. People didn't hold that against Ryu.

But mostly, calling people garbage is an awful thing to do.

 

I mean, the guy did just get arrested, so if the Hefty bag fits ...

[darin617]

 

I thought the idea was to have the better players. The goal is spend less?

 

Whatever. I guess i'm the only one that doesn't want to get burned on long term deals that will be hard to swallow in the last 2+ years.

 

The Hill signing could turn out to be a steal. I would have rather brought in Wood over Bailey.