Front Page: Where Do Twins Stand in Pursuit of David Price?

[Nick Nelson]

With the Twins now forced to fully turn their focus toward the trade market in the quest for impact starting pitching, David Price is a name that looms large. For multiple reasons, he makes sense as a target for Minnesota, and his availability is no secret.

 

Let's catch up on the latest to try and get a read on where things stand.Here's a quick rundown of the expository facts: In December of 2015, Boston signed David Price to what was – at the time – the largest free agent contract for a pitcher in MLB history (7 years, $217M). The return on their investment through four years has been iffy; he has averaged fewer than 150 innings per season, with a 3.84 ERA and 3.74 FIP.

 

Now, with ownership compelling the front office to get below the luxury tax threshold (they're currently around $20 million above), Price is an obvious candidate to move, though Boston doesn't have much leverage.

 

At this point, Price is no one's idea of a slam-dunk rotation booster. He's 34 and his previously impeccable durability has vanished over the past three years – to say nothing of the unspectacular results when he's been on the mound.

 

But prior to his underwhelming run with the Red Sox, Price was consistently one of the most reliably dominant starters in baseball. After seeing Justin Verlander revitalize in Houston following a temporary drop-off around age 30, no one can rule out a similar scenario with Price, who was teammates with Verlander in Detroit for a spell during JV's lull.

 

The question is, how much does it make sense for the Twins – or any team – to stake on that gamble? In Minnesota's case, he likely represents the last chance to acquire a player with any real "ace" bona fides for anything less than a painful prospect haul, by taking advantage of the extensive payroll flexibility the Twins have preserved.

 

Even in his diminished state, Price would still likely rank among Minnesota's top two or three three starters when healthy, adding valuable swagger and experience. It bears noting that in 2018 he was a significant factor in Boston's championship with two gems against Los Angeles in the World Series (many believe he should've been WS MVP). And in 2019 he was 7-2 with a 3.24 ERA at the All-Star Break, after which injuries derailed him. Don't sleep on the impact potential.

 

With all that covered, let's get up to speed on the suitors and market movement.

 

December 10th: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that there is "no progress" in trade discussions, although he mentions San Diego's pursuit, and the dangling of Wil Myers (a similar but less severe salary dump).

 

 

December 16th: Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that at least five teams have shown interest in Price, including the Padres, Cardinals, White Sox, Reds, and Angels.

 

December 22nd: Rosenthal adds Toronto to the list, writing that "the team also is talking to the Red Sox about a trade for Price." Later that day, news breaks via Jon Heyman that Ryu is signing with the Jays. Soon after, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets the obvious (Jays out on Price) but adds that the Red Sox "continue to shop David Price to teams, including two from the AL Central." Similarly obvious: those teams are the White Sox and Twins.

 

 

Since then, news and updates have been scant over the holiday period. Reading the tea leaves, I think it's safe to say that: 1) The Red Sox are actively peddling Price to a number of pitching-needy teams, with the amount of remaining salary covered by Boston a sticking point, and 2) Newly hired front office leader Chaim Bloom is playing things cautiously so as to avoid a costly misstep right out of the gates. Trading him for almost nothing, eating a bunch of salary, and then watching Price resurrect himself elsewhere would not exactly be a great first impression.

 

The Twins are well positioned to make a move on Price if they trust his "unique elbow" to hold up – they have ample room to add payroll this year and during the next few, with the conclusion of Price's contract after 2022 coinciding with the point where core players like Jose Berrios, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano are hitting free agency. If they really wanted to, Minnesota could take on a huge portion or even all of Price's remaining commitment, though obviously it'd inhibit their flexibility in the short-term.

 

Another wrinkle: If the White Sox are indeed after Price, and there's a belief he can get back to where he was, that's another motivator for the Twins to get something done. Chicago is quickly emerging as Minnesota's top threat in the division moving forward.

 

Stay tuned to Twins Daily for the latest rumors on Price and other offseason pursuits.

 

MORE FROM TWINS DAILY

— Cody Christie detailed Price's fit as a Twins trade target more extensively earlier this month.

— Latest Twins coverage from our writers

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[Cody Pirkl]

I'm at a point where I know price isn't the answer. That doesn't mean I wouldn't take him. I just don't know that I'd want us to take on that whole contract and shoestring ourselves.

 

We missed our shot at a somewhat sensible contract via free agency. Everyone says we could get Price for free if we pay his whole contract. Why not send some mid tier prospects over though if this is the route we want to take? Suppress his money owed and have some flexibility to make more moves as needed. We're going to have yet another 40 man crunch next offseason anyways.

 

Hes probably a 3rd starter when healthy at this point. Hes a good pitcher, but do we want to hear about the payroll crunch for years because we let the Red Sox unload that albatross of a contract onto us? That's how they got into their tight situation.

[D.C Twins]

Angles have urgency and money and lost out on the FA.

 

My guess is it will be them

[darin617]

I would be fine with a trade for Price but Boston would have to eat a ton of the remaining contract. I would be fine if they ate a little over $50M so it would end up being like a 3 year $40M deal for the Twins.

[4twinsJA]

Why help the Red Sox? Let them have to sit on that fat contract. Even at 40M for 3, no guarantee Price will be worth that. 

[denarded]

No thanks, unless Boston eats a chunk of that salary (which they won't)

[specialiststeve]

 

I would be fine with a trade for Price but Boston would have to eat a ton of the remaining contract. I would be fine if they ate a little over $50M so it would end up being like a 3 year $40M deal for the Twins.

 

He is owed 96 mil over the next 3 years ... Boston needs to cut 20 million each year to get under the tax. Not sure how that works if they pay 50 million "this" year. Otherwise as some have stated sending a young inexpensive player with him and we take on the whole amount.... Or.... just send us Sale and we send one of our young arms with whatever... there would be our ace.... I like that plan better not likely but I like it better..... 

[cmoss84]

Graterol throws innings 1-2. Price 3-7. Nice.

[baul0010]

I'd rather wait until next winter's free agency at this point.  I don't see a trade happening.  I do see a couple bargain pickups during spring training.  That seems to be the direction the F.O. likes to take.  I'd wager our pitching help will be coming mid-season in the form of Alcala and Dhuran, and Kirilloff to add some more punch to the lineup after Buxton is out for an extended stretch (hoping that's not the case).

[Linus]

If we take that contract in full then Boston is sending us a decent prospect. This is the way I would do it.

[twins_89]

Price has 6.2 fwar over the last 3 seasons which equates to just under $20M/year in value. Expecting more from him over his age 34-36 seasons is not realistic, so to even get to neutral value the Red Sox would have to eat at least $36M (and that's assuming no additional drop off due to age). I'm curious to see if Boston is willing to eat enough salary while getting back no real prospects.

[DocBauer]

Saying "if healthy" is a redundant and somewhat bogus statement as really, that applies to EVERYONE! And career performance for an over 30yr old player is always a very slippery slope. HOWEVER, I'd like to think the health question is something any team, including the Twins, would investigate very thoroughly before making any move. (I thoroughly acknowledge mid-season moves like the one last year for Dyson throw a monkey wrench in place).

 

To state the obvious, I don't pay a lot in prospect value. Boston also has to eat some of the $ cost. But how does that work exactly? If you are the Twins, you could be looking at Boston eating mkre the first year, potentially while we have $ sitting unspent for 2020. But over the next couple of seasons, even with some additional $ coming off the books, we also have some extensions we need to look at.

 

Prince's performance in big games for 2018 shouldn't be discounted. Nor should his first half of 2019, which I would gladly take. But how much, if you are the Twins, do really and truly trust his health and ability to perform for 28GS over the next few years at something like $20M per with low prospect cost? Do you truly see the ends justifying the means?

 

I'm saying no, but I am intrigued.

 

I just feel the odds are better for Gray, Ray, etc, for 2yrs plus a flier type we've all discussed. Maybe there is another Odorizzi move that is even smarter.

[cmoss84]

Price and Jay Groome. We pay 3/60 of his contract.

[High heat]

We pay all 30 million of it in 2020, 20 million in 21 and 10 million in 22. We also receive Red Sox top pitching prospect Jay Groome while send Red Sox Brent Rooker.

 

Rooker can fill an opening at 1B for the Sox and getting the Sox under the luxury tax with room to fill holes for this season.

we receive a top prospect and David Price. Allows us to use recourses now with payroll flexibility later.

[darin617]

 

Why help the Red Sox? Let them have to sit on that fat contract. Even at 40M for 3, no guarantee Price will be worth that. 

 

Why do people all come off like this? Why help whoever. It's not like the Twins don't need pitching.

[jorgenswest]

If he were a free agent according to steamer projections he would slot in by WAR above Keuchel and Bumgarner and below Ryu. An AAV of 20 million would be in line with the crop of free agents and they wouldn’t have to go a 4th year.

 

The Twins have urgency. They missed out on other free agents. They should be motivated here.

 

It doesn’t even have to be a good deal. Pay too much salary year 1 just to get the deal done.

[AlwaysinModeration]

We pay all 30 million of it in 2020, 20 million in 21 and 10 million in 22. We also receive Red Sox top pitching prospect Jay Groome while send Red Sox Brent Rooker. Rooker can fill an opening at 1B for the Sox and getting the Sox under the luxury tax with room to fill holes for this season. we receive a top prospect and David Price. Allows us to use recourses now with payroll flexibility later.

This seems pretty reasonable, although I would see 25/20/15 rather than 30/20/10.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Problem with the JV comparrison is that Price is more likely to not age well than rediscover what he lost. I don't know how good Boston's analytics team is, so perhaps ours sees something... but I'd be pretty leery about this move. I'd rather go younger at this point than an expensive and aging vet. 

 

Regardless, we have to get pitching since we missed out in FA. 

[beckmt]

Someone will buy Price, whether it be the Twins, the White Sox, or the Padres.  Question is the cost to Boston.  Biggest Twins issue is if it is the White Sox they will have an impressive starting rotation (on paper).  Do not want to overspend, but unless we can get Archer for little, may have to go this direction.  Am hoping the FO is not in the our pitching depth in the minors will work out.

[Oxtung]

Fangraphs had a whole article on this earlier this year. Their conclusion was there are 3 ways to move Price and get under the luxury tax limit. First, receiving team takes on all the contract and basically wipes out the entire Red Sox farm system. Second, receiving team takes on whole contract but also gets Benintenidi. Third, receiving team gets Price, Eduardo Rodriguez and $30MM (over the 3 years of the contract).

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-prices-trade-value/

[jorgenswest]

I think Price can help.

 

His OPS against excluding the one plate appearance he face a pitcher was 757. Bumgarner’s excluding opponent pitchers was 764. Keuchel 811.

 

The Red Sox have to help here. Like Ryu he is certainly an injury risk. In this market I think he gets a contract at least the level of Keuchel.

 

As for his pitching the Twins need to believe that they can help him find that change up that was once elite. When elite he is elite. If they can get it back to a plus pitch they have a very good pitcher.

[Rosterman]

If you got the money to burn and it doesn't cost you top prospects, just players that are still good but in the pecking order for depth, might be a wise move. Hey, if he rebounds, you can still flip him, too, at some point.

 

You need soeone better than Gibson for 2020. You will need someone better than Odorizzi for 2021. One more addition, especially a guy with skills, will still allow you to see a rotation of arms thru a fifth starter spot, working the beginning of the eason in place of Pineda, and still do the same thing in 2021 if one of the arms previewed this season can hold a solid roster spot in 2020. 

 

You are just asking to spend a million per start (hopefully) for a guy for the next three years. 

 

Better than a million+ for the next 7 years?

 

Bigger question, can you extend Berrios sooner rather than later?

 

Or, maybe, just bring back Francisco Liriano.

 

[Litdus]

Eduardo Rodriguez would be incredible! I'd do that all day long

 

Fangraphs had a whole article on this earlier this year. Their conclusion was there are 3 ways to move Price and get under the luxury tax limit. First, receiving team takes on all the contract and basically wipes out the entire Red Sox farm system. Second, receiving team takes on whole contract but also gets Benintenidi. Third, receiving team gets Price, Eduardo Rodriguez and $30MM (over the 3 years of the contract).

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-prices-trade-value/

 

[Dave Overlund]

I’m not a fan of Price at this point, but I also disagree with the returns being “iffy” for Boston. They won the World Series in 2018 thanks in large part to Price.

 

That’s the whole point of any signing right? To win the World Series?

[Mike Sixel]

No chance they do this. Too much money, or too much in prospects.

[ND-Fan]

I think this is the Twins last pitcher they can aquire without giving up to much in prospects and is more like signing a free agent. I said last fall this could be fall backe option for the Twins to acqire a pitcher and he falls in what Twins have been looking for in left hand veteran pitcher. I wouldn't worry about next 40 man Roster yet because a lot of things can happen in coming year. First is we have number players that will be free agents next year coming of the roster. Second is we have number of players that could possibly get traded before start of 2021 season. To name a few Rosario, Sano, and several of relief pitchers if they can't be signed for reasonable contracts in near future. I think long term plan here is that Twins are going to replace from the farm system as there players age and trade these maturing players for future prospects. I believe this has been strategy all along is always keep most affordable and controllable players and if you can't sign your players is to trade them with two years left of control to get some quality prospects. I do not believe they believe in going all out for winner and then going back into loosing phase. They want to be chase and hope lighting in the bottle strikes and they win a world series but they want a team that is contending for playoff spot. I look at like in college basketball they are midmajor team successful season is getting to the tournament knowing they have very small chance of winning. But success is measured by getting to the tournament and for most people now they like seeing winning team when they go and has reasonable chance of winning the game they are watching. This may not what avid Twin fan wants to hear but today large percentage people going to the games are not avid fans they are going for experience of the outing and hoping to see good game. I used to be one fans that would have screamed bloody murder but I have come to this realization that Twins ownership is not here to win whole thing but here to entertain the fans to where they are profitable year in year out. There goal is to make money every year and have team that can draw enough fans to do this. The goal of winning championships is not there primary goal because to do that in small market the up and downs are to large and primary goal is to turn a profit every year. If you look at it this management team has been fulfilling this since they have taken over. This is what got previous management fired because they couldn't put good enough product on field to satisfy the casual fan. I willing to bet most of people on this site find this disgusting but what we have two different goals of success and if you can't see this after nearly 30 years of ownership you haven't been playing close enough attention. The time we won championships when they first bought club and owners wife was avid fan and then we had leadership that measured success by championships and since her death we had goal of being successful profitable business. Which is right goal for owner of business to be most profitable year in year out. This ownership is in it for long haul not inflate success of business and then sell it for high rate of return but to run business year in year out through generations of the family.

[ashbury]

I like the analytical approach baseballtradevalues.com brings, as they are looking at an aspect that mirrors how a front office must think when considering a trade. However, exclusive focus on "excess value" doesn't tell the whole story. The Red Sox are not in fire-sale mode and are not simply disposing of players - they intend to compete in 2020. David Price remains an above-average pitcher, based on recent performance, especially if you believe in FIP moreso than ERA. Injury risk, yes. But he can contribute, to them or to another team if he's traded. The Sox want to get under the luxury tax but that doesn't mean they will give him away, as there would be multiple teams with a bit of payroll space who would take him.

 

Is he worth the committed salary? No. But they have him, and other teams don't. That's worth something to another contender, whereas if his established performance had declined to below-average, it wouldn't be.

 

Now, a really creative thing would have been the day after the World Series, for a bottom feeder team to have done the Red Sox a favor by taking on Dustin Pedroia's and Rusney Castillo's dead money, maybe Eovaldi's, perhaps even Price's contract, in exchange for... I don't know, every significant prospect in the Red Sox farm system? About $76M in salary for 2020, and less than that in future years. The Orioles or Marlins get something to market to ticket buyers, plus they load up with prospects. The Red Sox get a do-over on reloading for another pennant run via free-agency or other uses for payroll room. Too late for that now. (And when I glanced at the Red Sox farm system a while back, they really don't have that many prospects worth coveting. Perhaps not enough to swing that trade, anyway.)

 

Back in November, if they had disposed of Price and his contract, they could have gone after a similarly salaried FA they happened to like better, to replace him. But now? I don't believe they are looking to simply remove his expected contributions from their roster, unless they have a replacement in mind.

 

Payroll is a constraining factor, even for the BoSox. But so is available talent.

[MMMordabito]

Would the Red Sox take Homer Bailey and Rich Hill?

 

I hear Rich Hill is from the area and would approve the trade.

[TopGunn#22]

I want Chris Sale, not David price.  HOWEVER...if the red Sox would include Eduardo Rodriguez in a trade if the Twins took on ALL of Price's remaining contract I'd do it.  I've read several times that the Red Sox may have to include E-Rod in any Price deal.  I can't believe Boston would do that.  But I keep seeing it written about.  Smarter people than me must know something.  If no E-Rod, I'm not interested in Price at all.  Let the White Sox have him.  Trade me Chris Sale.  All 5-years and $145 million.  Twins get Sale for years 31, 32, 33, 34, & 35.  At $29-$30 million per year.  For a true ACE.  I would give them Rooker and maybe a young pitching prospect (Enlow? Smeltzer?) for all 5 years of Sale.  

[mikelink45]

His name says it all - Price! At what price for a diminishing value.  We dream, we wish, but what is the price and what is the value?  The remaining value on Price could have bought us pitchers with more value on the FA market.  

 

As the resident contrarian I would not do the deal.  We now have a full rotation and young pitchers in waiting.   We missed our real chance, now we should deal with the reality of what we have.