Front Page: Setting the Twins' Bullpen Pecking Order for 2020

[Matthew Taylor]

After the signings of Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard, the Twins’ bullpen appears to be set for 2020. But what will the pecking order be for the bullpen next season? Let’s dig in and talk about it.Heading into 2020, rosters will be expanded to 26 players, and most likely the Twins will divide up their roster to have thirteen position players and five starting pitchers. That leaves eight arms in the bullpen for us to figure out how they will fit into the pecking order. I will rank them in order from lowest leverage guys to highest. In 2019 the Twins had 26 players pitch out of the bullpen so obviously the bullpen pecking order will be continuously changing, but for the purpose of this exercise I’ll work out what I believe will be the order on opening day.

 

Honorable Mentions

A few guys that I don’t believe will make the Opening Day bullpen but should end up in the bullpen at some point.

• Ryne Harper
• Fernando Romero
• Jorge Alcala
• Lewis Thorpe
• Devin Smeltzer
• Sean Poppen

The Lowest of Leverages

8. Matt Wisler

 

The first move that the Minnesota Twins made this offseason was claiming RHP Matt Wisler off waivers from the Mariners. Wisler was a former highly regarded prospect who had yet to break out in the majors. He had a disappointing 5.61 ERA in 2019, but his 63/16 K/BB ratio is certainly appealing. The Twins handing Wisler a guaranteed contract makes me think he will make the Opening Day roster, however I don’t think he will be entrusted in any scenario other than the lowest of leverage spots to begin the year. Like, Twins are up 13-2 in the seventh inning-type spot.

 

Low Leverage

7. Cody Stashak

 

Stashak was a surprise breakthrough for the Minnesota Twins bullpen in 2019. While he had been a great pitcher in each of his stops in the minor leagues, he didn’t show any signs of struggle adjusting to major league hitters. Stashak faced 104 batters with the Twins in 2019 and walked just one (!) of them. Stashak is still young and doesn’t quite have the track record of the other bullpen arms, leaving him in a low leverage spot to start the 2020 season.

 

Medium Leverage

6. Zack Littell

 

At this time last year, Twins nation was all up in arms over the lack of impact additions to the bullpen by the front office. If at that time I told you that the Minnesota Twins “medium leverage” bullpen pitcher would be a guy who threw up a 2.68 ERA and a 172 ERA+ the year prior you would be absolutely thrilled. That’s the position that this Twins’ bullpen is in now. Littell was outstanding for the Minnesota Twins in 2019, but with the amount of depth in this bullpen, he’s in a position where he is sixth in the bullpen pecking order and expected to be a medium leverage guy.

 

Medium-High Leverage/Platoon Guys

5. Tyler Clippard

 

When the Twins signed Clippard last week, they acquired a two-time All-Star with over 10 years of big league experience. Clippard has a career 3.14 ERA and is coming off of a great season with Cleveland where he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. What makes Clippard extremely valuable for the Twins is that even though he is a RHP by biology, he acts as a lefty, allowing a career .187 BA to left-handed hitters. I expect Clippard to be a sixth- or seventh-inning pitcher and be called upon to face left-handers in medium-high leverage situations in 2020.

 

4. Sergio Romo

 

While Tyler Clippard has shown extreme success against lefties throughout his career, Sergio Romo has done the same against right-handed hitters. In his career, Romo has allowed righties to hit just a .577 OPS compared to .677 OPS for lefties. I expect both Clippard and Romo to work in similar roles in 2020 as medium-high leverage/platoon guys, dominating opposing lefties and righties respectively.

 

High Leverage

3. Trevor May

 

A once-promising starting pitching prospect for the Minnesota Twins, Trevor May has finally put it all together in the bullpen over the past two seasons. Working under Wes Johnson, May was able to get his average fastball velocity up to 95 MPH, which he threw a whopping 62% of the time in 2019. With a K% of 30, the Twins will need to count on May in big spots in 2020, and I have confidence that he will come through.

 

2. Tyler Duffey

 

There was no bigger revelation on the entire Minnesota Twins team in 2019 than Tyler Duffey. Coming into the 2019 season, Duffey had a career 5.46 ERA. In 2019, though, Duffey quickly pushed himself into the upper echelon of relief pitchers in all of baseball with his 2.50 ERA, .201 BAA and 34.4 K%. Duffey was frequently called upon as the “fireman” in 2019, and I expect him to be further cemented in as a high leverage pitcher in 2020.

 

The Highest of Leverages

1. Taylor Rogers

 

There aren’t enough superlatives to discuss how good Taylor Rogers was in 2019, finishing the season with a 2.61 ERA, 32.4% K%, and 2.1 fWAR (second best in American League). Additionally, Rogers was excellent in high leverage positions, being thrown in to 50 games where he faced high leverage situations, he allowed just a .626 OPS. Rogers is the cream of the crop in terms of baseball relief pitchers and he will undoubtedly be first in the Twins bullpen pecking order heading into 2020.

 

What are your thoughts on the bullpen pecking order that I laid out? Any changes or disagreements? Do you have a good feeling for where the bullpen is at in 2020? Leave a comment below and start the conversation.

 

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[bobs]

So, we're assuming Dobnak is #5 starter? (Gulp) . A FA or trade brings #4?  Seems like a solid, not spectacular, bullpen.  

It's almost Jan. 1, to early to panic.  WAY too early.  But I'm getting nervous that at least 2 of Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe will be in the rotation on Opening Day.

[South Dakota Tom]

I do think at least two of Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe or Graterol will be in the early-April five (maybe you were already assuming Brusdar). But I do think there will be one more add in a high-ceiling trade or a couple of fliers - Walker plus one (Wood, Jimmy Nelson?).

 

I also believe they trust Romo and Clippard over May (and equal with Duffey).

[jorgenswest]

Good to have 5 guys that can be trusted in the 7th or later, I think Littell will step up and I am hoping on Romero’s upside at some point in the first half.

[Twodogs]

Am i wrong, or does Romero need to make the roster out of Spring Training, aren't all of his options up?

[jorgenswest]

Am i wrong, or does Romero need to make the roster out of Spring Training, aren't all of his options up?

I think it was reported on TD that he is in line for a 4th option.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/the-hazy-future-of-fernando-romero-r8320

 

I think you need to go down to comments and maybe another link.

[Twodogs]

I think it was reported on TD that he is in line for a 4th option.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/the-hazy-future-of-fernando-romero-r8320

 

I think you need to go down to comments and maybe another link.

Thanks

[wabene]

Romero's oddly disastrous season has to be a fluke, doesn't it? How can a guy come up and dominate as a starter for 5 starts one year then he can't even find the plate the next? You gotta think a guy like him with his talent picks it up a bit this year. Romero along with Alcala give us some potential bullpen depth with big talent. Looking forward to watching it play out.

[beterday]

Please, could we get to the point where we never see Ryne Harper on a list for the Twins?

[Cody Pirkl]

 

So, we're assuming Dobnak is #5 starter? (Gulp) . A FA or trade brings #4?  Seems like a solid, not spectacular, bullpen.  

It's almost Jan. 1, to early to panic.  WAY too early.  But I'm getting nervous that at least 2 of Smeltzer, Dobnak, Thorpe will be in the rotation on Opening Day.

As things stand right now, Dobnak, Smeltzer, and Thorpe are all in the rotation on opening day. It's surely too early to panic, but I'd put the odds at well over 50/50 that two of these guys are in the rotation to start the year. I think they can make due with that for 39 games until Pineda is back, they've always been open to one rookie in the #5 spot. Starting the year with all 3 of these guys though would be just asking to lose the division. That would be an F- offseason if that happens in my opinion regardless of anything they do from now until opening day.

[TopGunn#22]

My only quibble with your order is that I would flip-flop Clippard and Romo.  The thing that is so encouraging to me is that Trevor May FINALLY started to look like the guy I felt he could be and when I watched Duffy throw, I thought he was a right-handed version of Taylor Rogers without the control.  BAM !!!  Last year his fastball and curveball just SNAPPED.  I know bullpens can be kind of tricky from year to year but this bullpen looks to be what truly separates the Twins from the Indians and White Sox in the division.

[Tommygun921]

Hopefully with 8 (hopefully) solid bullpen arms there will be less of a need to pitch back to back days. As a few of these guys tended to struggle mightily on the 2nd day.

[mikelink45]

Glad for the optimism, but Duffey and May do not present the level I would like to see in the get the game to Rogers scenario.  Two old guys with wit, but not great stuff make it on the margin - Clippard and Romo - and a little slip makes them fail.  There is a lot to be concerned about in this mix. 

[MMMordabito]

 

Please, could we get to the point where we never see Ryne Harper on a list for the Twins?

 

Hey, baby steps.  We crossed the threshold of never seeing Hildenberger on lists anymore. Don't look a gift horse in the mouth.

[MMMordabito]

 

Glad for the optimism, but Duffey and May do not present the level I would like to see in the get the game to Rogers scenario.  Two old guys with wit, but not great stuff make it on the margin - Clippard and Romo - and a little slip makes them fail.  There is a lot to be concerned about in this mix. 

 

I'm hopeful that you will have more faith in Duffey and May a couple months into the season. Both pitchers have electric fastballs and they can control it. 

 

Trevor May really took a step forward after that mid-season rough-up when he kept throwing that curveball that wasn't fooling anyone.  Take a look at his season trajectory after giving up his fourth curveball home run - a three-run 0-2 shot to Dominic Smith on 7/17.  He was lights out, except for a bad day against Chicago, in August and September (34K/6BB).  

 

Tyler Duffey has worked to use his pitches more effectively.  This is probably the best article that I have read about it.  The improvements have made him a real weapon.  

 

They both have to come back and do it again in 2020, but I like their chances.

[MN_ExPat]

 

Please, could we get to the point where we never see Ryne Harper on a list for the Twins?

Be careful what you wish for.   You just may get it.

[bird]

 

Please, could we get to the point where we never see Ryne Harper on a list for the Twins?

 

 

We're probably five bullpen injuries away from seeing him pitch. That's good enough for me. In addition to Matthew's Honorable Mentions list. we might see any of Jovani Moran, Edwar Colina, Graterol, or Duran before we see Ryne Harper again. Pretty decent buffer, I'd say.

[DocBauer]

I agree with the list and the order, though in actuality, it will fluctuate some daily.

 

Very excited about the depth all the way down to Rochester.

 

Have this nice kind of nagging feeling that Romero could end up changing this list. Just throw the ball over the plate, kid, and trust your stuff.

[adorduan]

 

Romero's oddly disastrous season has to be a fluke, doesn't it? How can a guy come up and dominate as a starter for 5 starts one year then he can't even find the plate the next? You gotta think a guy like him with his talent picks it up a bit this year. Romero along with Alcala give us some potential bullpen depth with big talent. Looking forward to watching it play out.

Wes the pitching guru needs to make fixing Romero one of his main projects this spring.

[Matthew Taylor]

Additional discussion question:

 

• Of Wisler, Stashak and Littell, which pitcher do you think has the best chance of moving into a consistent high leverage role in 2020?
• Of May, Duffey and Rogers, which pitcher do you think has the best chance of taking a step backwards and moving down into a consistent low leverage role in 2020?

For me, I think Zack Littell has the best chance of becoming a top-flight reliever for Minnesota next year. He already saw a 2 MPH increase in his fastball from 2018 to 2019 and at just 24 years old I wouldn't be surprised if he sees another velocity jump (and K% jump) in 2020. From July 21 to September 14 Littell appeared in 11 games without allowing an ER.

 

For guy looking to take a step backwards, I think it could potentially be Tyler Duffey. He was elite in 2019, but his track record before that is still so shaky so it wouldn't completely shock me if five years from now we all look back and say "remember that year in 2019 where Tyler Duffey was randomly amazing?". I think he'll be really good again in 2020, but if I'm reaching for a potential step-backwards guy, he's my pick.

 

[dex8425]

This is fun to discuss. Lots of 'pen depth, which can't be anything but a good thing. 

 

I think May, Duffey and Rogers will all be elite again. Their stuff is just too good. Once Duffey started throwing his curve harder instead of throwing a slow big hook it was extremely effective at fooling hitters. May needs to keep throwing his best pitch more than half the time- his fastball. 

[Rosterman]

I would still like to see a bonifide closer signed.

[Linus]

No to Wisler and Harper. If either start the year in the pen the FO has failed

[DocBauer]

Additional discussion question:

 

• Of Wisler, Stashak and Littell, which pitcher do you think has the best chance of moving into a consistent high leverage role in 2020?
  
• Of May, Duffey and Rogers, which pitcher do you think has the best chance of taking a step backwards and moving down into a consistent low leverage role in 2020?
  

For me, I think Zack Littell has the best chance of becoming a top-flight reliever for Minnesota next year. He already saw a 2 MPH increase in his fastball from 2018 to 2019 and at just 24 years old I wouldn't be surprised if he sees another velocity jump (and K% jump) in 2020. From July 21 to September 14 Littell appeared in 11 games without allowing an ER.

 

For guy looking to take a step backwards, I think it could potentially be Tyler Duffey. He was elite in 2019, but his track record before that is still so shaky so it wouldn't completely shock me if five years from now we all look back and say "remember that year in 2019 where Tyler Duffey was randomly amazing?". I think he'll be really good again in 2020, but if I'm reaching for a potential step-backwards guy, he's my pick.

 

A very interesting arguement, Matt. Honestly not sure Duffey and May couldn't be one of the guys to actually take a step forward. But of the 3 names you listed, I'd also agree on Littell, but with some hesitancy. I say that because I liked what he did and what I saw. He's come a long way from the kid with a deer in the headlight look thrown out on the mound when not quite ready in 2018. But damn when you look at what Stashak did as a rookie and his SO/BB totals.

 

With the very nature of the BP role, so hard to predict regression. Because of that, I won't argue against Duffey, or anyone. Said regression would be minimal, I'd hope.

 

I think a 3rd topic, and maybe more interesting, would be a Wild Card choice. Who might step up that we aren't exactly exlecting? Might that be Wisler suddenly finding better control, Romero harnessing his stuff, or Alcala embracing his new role? Or someone else?

[tony&rodney]

Nothing electric, but I really enjoyed watching Cody Stashek pitch. With an exception or two, he looked to be in control of the at bats. I hope he improves and makes the trip north from Florida on the opening day team.

[Matthew Taylor]

 

Nothing electric, but I really enjoyed watching Cody Stashek pitch. With an exception or two, he looked to be in control of the at bats. I hope he improves and makes the trip north from Florida on the opening day team.

Matt Braun did a really nice job writing about what made Stashak so special in 2019 a couple of months ago.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/articles.html/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-twins/cody-stashak-was-more-than-just-a-command-wizard-in-2019-r8537

[nicksaviking]

 

No to Wisler and Harper. If either start the year in the pen the FO has failed

 

Because of the last man in the bullpen?

 

I'm actually really interested in seeing Wisler this spring. I love bullpen guys with a wipeout slider.

[MMMordabito]

 

No to Wisler and Harper. If either start the year in the pen the FO has failed

 

I will be surprised if Ryne Harper starts the year in MLB pen, unless a barrage of injuries hits.  He was effective in the first half, but he appeared to get figured out in the second half. The numbers and usage support this.  If Sam Dyson hadn't been injured, I doubt he would have collected the 17 innings that he did late in the year.

 

It's way too early the throw Wisler under the bus.  Sure he's a failed starter and the ERA doesn't look good, but he has improved since moving to a bullpen roll at least on the peripherals.  A quick glance makes him look to be more of a fly ball pitcher which didn't bode well in San Diego and Seattle with the all the defensively challenged corner outfielders being trotted out to play each day.  Healthy years from the trio of Buxton, Kepler and Rosario could make him look like a steal at $900K or whatever they ended up paying him.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him used as an opener either.

[MMMordabito]

 

• Of Wisler, Stashak and Littell, which pitcher do you think has the best chance of moving into a consistent high leverage role in 2020?
• Of May, Duffey and Rogers, which pitcher do you think has the best chance of taking a step backwards and moving down into a consistent low leverage role in 2020

 

Littell is my pick to gain more high leverage. With the way the pitching staff is shaping up, I'm expecting to see him a lot in the 6th and 7th inning this season.  Mostly the 6th, but he could get the 7th if a couple guys aren't available. I think he's ready.

 

The second point kind of makes be short circuit. What?! Steps back!? How could you even suggest it?!  I'll bite though and go with Trevor May.  The only reason being that I think he is more inclined to get wrong between the ears from time to time.  Maybe it's just that tendency to talk to himself on the mound after bad things happen. 

[IndianaTwin]

 

I will be surprised if Ryne Harper starts the year in MLB pen, unless a barrage of injuries hits.  He was effective in the first half, but he appeared to get figured out in the second half. The numbers and usage support this.  If Sam Dyson hadn't been injured, I doubt he would have collected the 17 innings that he did late in the year.

 

It's way too early the throw Wisler under the bus.  Sure he's a failed starter and the ERA doesn't look good, but he has improved since moving to a bullpen roll at least on the peripherals.  A quick glance makes him look to be more of a fly ball pitcher which didn't bode well in San Diego and Seattle with the all the defensively challenged corner outfielders being trotted out to play each day.  Healthy years from the trio of Buxton, Kepler and Rosario could make him look like a steal at $900K or whatever they ended up paying him.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him used as an opener either.

 

Interesting thought on being an opener. In 57 career starts, his OPS allowed is .689.