Front Page: Crystal Ball: Who Is Ready for Stardom?

[Nash Walker]

The calendar is ready to flip and it is nearly impossible to look at 2019 as anything other than a booming success for the Twins.

, but who will be their biggest star in 2020? *All WAR numbers are calculated by Baseball Reference*Jorge Polanco led the Twins with a 5.7 WAR in 2019, playing in 153 games and hitting .295/.356/.485 with 22 home runs and 40 doubles. Polanco represented the American League as the starting shortstop in the All-Star Game and looks like a perennial candidate to hold the honor. The five-year, $25.75 million extension that Polanco signed during spring training confirms his presence in Minnesota through 2025. If you’re looking to buy a Twins jersey that represents a key cog and core center point, Polanco may provide the stitches to sport:

 

 

If he can stay healthy, Byron Buxton should find himself in the league MVP conversation for his next three seasons as a Twin. Highly touted as a top prospect, it took Buxton almost six years to break out, but he is here. Despite playing in just 87 games, Buxton posted a 3.1 WAR and hit .262/.314/.513 with 10 home runs and 30 doubles. His Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games in center field was a pristine 15.7, ranking behind only Aaron Judge, Harrison Bader and teammate Max Kepler. Buxton’s absence from the lineup in the ALDS was a huge blow.

 

Kepler was crowned the 2019 Twins Daily MVP after posting a 4.0 WAR in 134 games. Kepler hit .252/.336/.519 with 36 home runs and 30 doubles. His barrel percentage jumped to nearly 9% and he hit the ball harder than ever. Kepler’s defense proved extremely valuable when Buxton went down as he posted a 2.8 UZR in 459 innings in center field. He also hit .293/.356/.524 off lefties after looking like a potential platoon player early in his career.

 

Impact starting pitching has been the buzz phrase this offseason, and rightly so. Everyone knows José Berríos is a king, but can he become an ace? He is getting there. In his four years as a pro, Berríos has posted ERAs of 8.02, 3.89, 3.84 and 3.68. Now coming off back-to-back All-Star Game appearances, Berríos is primed to take the next step. Consistency and endurance are seemingly the only pieces holding him back from stardom. He has a 5.30 ERA in 217 1/3 innings from August through October.

 

Today is the one year anniversary of the Nelson Cruz signing, a move that has paid dividends in unforeseen ways. His immense impact on the field is marginal compared to his outstanding leadership in the clubhouse. Cruz is entering his age-39 season and doesn’t appear to be slowing down. In his last three seasons, Cruz hit .284/.369/.562 with 117 home runs in 419 games. He ranked second on the Twins with a 4.3 WAR in 2019. Father time is undefeated, but Cruz, with his elite preparation and daily naps, will undoubtedly play a huge role next year.

 

Whether it is Josh Donaldson or Miguel Sanó, third base will be a position of production for the Twins in 2020 and beyond. Sanó showed us what he is capable of in 2019, hitting .254/.362/.578 with 21 home runs in his last 65 games of the season. He posted a 3.1 WAR in 105 games, which extrapolates to just under five in a full season. Prolonged slumps remain an issue with Sanó, but his .346 on-base percentage was his highest since his rookie season. He drew a career high 55 walks and posted an OPS+ of 138. Now entering his age-27 season, Sanó’s prime is perhaps upon us:

 

 

Mitch Garver posted a 4.0 WAR in just 93 games in 2019. With great plate discipline and a violent, compact swing, Garver won the Silver Slugger Award after hitting .273/.365/.630 with 31 homers. He fully broke out and Twins fans should be very excited about the "Garv Sauce" moving forward:

 

 

OTHER CANDIDATES:

 

Jake Odorizzi: 3.6 WAR in 30 starts in 2019, All-Star with 3.51 ERA and 10.1 K/9.

Eddie Rosario: 1.6 WAR in 137 games, hit 32 homers with 109 RBI.

Luis Arraez: 1.8 WAR in 92 games, hit .334/.399/.439 with 25 extra-base hits.

Marwin Gonzalez: 1.6 WAR in 114 games, hit .264/.322/.414 with 15 homers.

 

Who do you think will be the Twins MVP in 2020? Comment below!

 

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[jorgenswest]

I think Byron Buxton plays 140 games and is team MVP.

[DocBauer]

This is a topic that tantalizes me and also drives me crazy! If you take a long, hard look at the core of tne Twins roster, you forget how young it is. After a handful of just disappointing and hard seasons, you want HOPE. And you read about all this talent coming up and you just want them to be special NOW. And some point to this guy, or that guy, who are 21-23yo and seem to be studs already. But those guys at that age not only don't grow on trees, they are spread out throughout 30 teams! EVERYONE wants to have the next Trout! It doesn't happen that often.

 

Berrios is a FINE SP. I doubt there is a team that wouldn't love to have him. He is already good, and a 2 time All Star...for what that is worth...who has looked like a bona fide ACE in the making before some late season regression. He won't be 26 until May of 2020!

 

Sano and Polanco are still only 26yo. Buxton and Kepler the same. Maybe it's some kind of Minnesota curse, but injuries have indeed played a part for some reaching their full potential. Now whether it is maturity, health, or a new way of doing and approaching things, we saw a maturation taking place in 2019 with all of these guys stepping in to what should be their prime years. He'll, Rosario at 28yo is the "old man" of this group.

 

I don't think we have seen the best yet of any of these guys. Period. But give me 140 games played with health, or 30 GS, I'd pick Sano, Buxton and Berrios.

 

And that doesn't even include improvement from Polanco, Kepler and Garver, possibly one of the best all around catchers in the game.

[etwink]

Berrios.  He’s got the stuff and the attitude.  He WANTS to be great.  He is unlikely to settle for being just a 2/3 guy when he so clearly can dominate teams.  I know that people are frustrated with his inconsistency, but I expect that he is as well.

 

of the rest....

I think that Kepler has another level, but can he find it?

 

Of course Buxton, we all know the talent is there, but can he mature enough to stop hurting himself and play 140+ games?  We’re beyond “freak accidents” at this point.

 

Of course Sano, same as Buxton, but can he mature enough to treat his career and great latent talent seriously enough to improve?

 

I think we’ve seen the top end of Garver (how could he be better???), Rosario (what makes him so exciting also holds him back), Polanco (just field and I’ll be happy), Arraez (see Garver) and Odorizzi (just get into the 6th inning consistently and I’ll be happy).

[Doctor Wu]

You wrote it already: if Buxton can stay healthy, and keep those strikeouts down, he's the one.

[Squirrel]

Please stick to the topic. thanks!

[sloopjont]

One friendly quarrel with this article is with the following: His immense impact on the field is marginal compared to his outstanding leadership in the clubhouse.  As good as he might be in the clubhouse--no way!

[goulik]

Great thread and, wow, there are a lot of wonderful options!! A surprise when looking at all the possibilities for the best player on the team is how far down the list of likely MVP’s we find Rosario. I really like Rosario and really enjoy chanting Eddie so it’s no slight to his talents but a statement about this lineup. I don’t think last year was a mirage folks.

[mikelink45]

 

I think Byron Buxton plays 140 games and is team MVP.

You think this or wish this?

[mikelink45]

I am seeing more and more articles on teams needing on base guys - what an amazing recognition!  Well we installed that guy in mid season last year - I put Arraez as the glue, the on base, run scoring guy.  He is the kind of batter that drives opponents crazy and he will be the MVP next year. 

[TopGunn#22]

If Buxton is healthy enough to play 140+ games it will be him.  I feel like he's right on the cusp.  I agree that Max Kepler has another level...IF he can find it.  That would be him still hitting 30 HR's but batting .280 or so with an OBP of .380-.390.  I think last year's team MVP was Nelson Cruz.  Not only was he a tremendous influence on the entire lineup (I just gotta believe Buxton, Sano, Kepler, garver etc... saw his AB's and something started to click for each of them---I don't mention Polanco, because he was already the guy with the best approach of our young-en's).  But look at the season Cruz had !!  As we used to say when I was a kid, "I can't wait to see Cruz's Strat-O-Matic Card !!!"  Doc Bauer makes a great point---These guys are all still really young!  And they've got hitters like Kiriloff, Larnach and Rooker who are VERY close.  But, it's Buxton.  Yes MikeLink, we all all WISH it, because we all know, if Buxton ever plays 140+ games he is capable of doing some truly wonderful things.

[rdehring]

Just think how good Garver, Berrios, Arraez, Polanco, Sano, Rosario, Buxton or Kepler could be if they have that magical season in 2020.  What's amazing, that is eight guys who all are on the cusp of becoming superstars.  Just think the year the Twins would have if say three of them play at or near their ceilings?  

 

If forced to put one name out there for 2020 MVP, my choice is Kepler.  

[4twinsJA]

Kiriloff, think he gets an opportunity and has an Arraez like impact next year.

[Linus]

Buxton or Berrios. Berrios just needs a little better command and he can be a legit ace. I think Buxton is one of those guys that needs a little extra time to get it and when that happens all the skills will come out.

[prouster]

I think Berrios will take the next step. He has put up some dominant stretches, and I think those could be more regular if the team manages his workload more carefully early in the season. I also get the sense he might rev himself up too much at times. Being a little older could help him settle down when he’s on the mound (if that’s even a problem).

[Battle ur tail off]

I think Sano plays a full year and absolutely hammers. When he is on, this guy spits on tough pitches and hammers mistakes. 

 

Buxton, if he can stay healthy and hit, could be a game changer. That said, I'm still not convinced he is a great hitter. He needs to prove himself to me at least in this regard. 

 

Garver I just don't think can be any better. Hoping he can continue what he did last year, but he, IMO has the highest percentage of anyone to regress. 

 

Kepler I think you saw last year what he is capable of. He's a tough at bat no matter what and plays excellent defense. What a solid player he was last year. It it too bad that he had to get hurt towards the end, I think a healthy Kepler is a huge boost to this lineup in the playoffs. 

 

Polanco. Just make the routine plays in the field more often. He's a great hitter. Extremely valuable part of this team. 

 

Berrios. Do something so you don't wear down because the first part of your season, you were every bit the ACE that we have long coveted here. 

[bobs]

  Taken individually, I think Kepler and Polanco are who we saw last year.  If the ball is de-juiced, we'll likely see a regression in some power numbers, but they both are rock solid hitters now.  Kepler is a good RF.  Polanco's defense we all know is a bit hit-and-miss.

  Another 30-40 games from Garver, with maybe 20 starts at 1B, would be great.  Not sure he gets the 1B starts and I doubt he catches more than 110-115.

  There are 3 guys I'm looking at that I feel can make a jump.

1) Berrios...No one doubts his stuff.  Is it just adding strength to up his stamina so he can be strong for 200+ innings and into October?  He's a Cy Young candidate if he can maintain through a full season

2) Buxton....140 games would be fun to see, wouldn't it?

3) Sano....just maintain the improvement from the last half of 2019 and be that player for a full season.

[Brandon]

I think the team MVP for the Twins will be Sano. He will hit .265/.380/.670. with a full season at 1B after we sign Donaldson. Sano becomes the first Twins hitter to top the 50 HR mark. With a full season of health, Buxton is 30 OAA (Outs Above Average) and has 10 5 star Catches and 20 OF assists. With 50 stolen bases and 21 triples Buxton I a close second in the MVP race. He has a .280/.350/.550 batting line.

 

Polanco just duplicates his 2019 season in 2020 and that is only good for fourth place in the team MVP race as Donaldson comes in and solidifies most of the IF defense with GG Defense at third helping Polanco improve at SS and Donaldson hits 40 HRs and has a batting line of .270/.370/.580.

 

Nelson Cruz starts to regress a little and doesn't quite make the top 5 in team MVP voting next season as being a DH only with only 39 HRs in 520 AB is a downturn from his 41 in 2019 I 100 fewer AB. Still his batting line of .280/.360/.550 is pretty solid. Kepler though is able to win a GG by staying in a corner OF spot.for a full season. Finally breaking through to the 45 HR plateau. With a batting line of .260/.330/.560 he gets 5th in team MVP.

 

Berrios finally wins 20 games but that is more of a product of offensive improvement than an improvement from Berrios. Still his 3.10 ERA is the best of his career. There is great debate as to whether he is now an ace or a 1B starter. Odorizzi has another stellar season. He even pitches 6 innings in a couple starts and 7 innings once.

 

Tyler Clipboard gets the top reliever of the year award as he is the biggest beneficiary of Buxton playing everyday in CF. Nothing but rain drops in the Twins OF so the 45% flyball rate gets caught. Including 6 HRs get reeled in with over the wall highlight catches. In fact 7 of Buxton's 5 star Catches comes with Clipboard on the mound. Because of this Clipboard pitches 72 innings and gives up only 12 earned runs. This season doesn't even register in the top ten team MVP discussion.

 

Note: the Twins win the 2020 World Series.

[Jham]

Rosario is so close. A more mature approach for a full season gets him there. I'd sort of like to see him play first or third to gain some of his negative outfield war back and make room for Larnach.

 

I think Larnach is close to breaking out. He's only recently started adding power to his game. I'm assuming the power breakthrough is coming and soon.

 

Astudillo is another like Roasie who lacks approach. But has shown adjustments in his recent MiLB history, adding power.

 

On the pitching side, if Thorpe gets his pre tj velocity back or improves command he could be the future top of the rotation guy he was once considered.

[ewen21]

 

 

Buxton, if he can stay healthy and hit, could be a game changer. That said, I'm still not convinced he is a great hitter. He needs to prove himself to me at least in this regard.

 

 

Aside from the last two months of 2017 he’s not been a very good hitter. His on base percentage is straight up weak. Add to this his penchant getting injured on and off throughout his entire career it is now hard for me to envision “stardom”

 

How about hit .270-20-80? Is that too much to ask? That would mean he played most of the year. Something he’s been unable to the last two seasons.

 

Not playing certainly isn’t going to help him as a hitter

[Squirrel]

Aside from the last two months of 2017 he’s not been a very good hitter. His on base percentage is straight up weak. Add to this his penchant getting injured on and off throughout his entire career it is now hard for me to envision “stardom”

How about hit .270-20-80? Is that too much to ask? That would mean he played most of the year. Something he’s been unable to the last two seasons.

Not playing certainly isn’t going to help him as a hitter

We all know by now your thoughts on Buxton, so before we turn this thread into a Buxton debate, the OP asked who do you think the 2020 MVP will be? Yes, not Buxton, but who do you think that will be? Someone currently on the roster, someone outside yet to be named?

[Rosterman]

I want to believe that Trevor May will surprise everyone and grab the closer role, work on his pitches and selection, and perhaps become the next Joe Nathan in Twins history. Saw flashes of it each of the past couple of seasons. 

[ewen21]

We all know by now your thoughts on Buxton, so before we turn this thread into a Buxton debate, the OP asked who do you think the 2020 MVP will be? Yes, not Buxton, but who do you think that will be? Someone currently on the roster, someone outside yet to be named?

Oh hello Carole. I hope you’ve had a pleasant holiday season.

 

The thread’s title is “who is ready for stardom” so I zeroed on that. As far as team MVP goes for next season? Beats me.

 

I hope all the players listed have something resembling complete years and contribute a lot. Polanco seems to be the best bet, but I don’t know for sure.

 

What about you?

[Dantes929]

 

One friendly quarrel with this article is with the following: His immense impact on the field is marginal compared to his outstanding leadership in the clubhouse.  As good as he might be in the clubhouse--no way!

Like when they say such and such all star is "a great player but even a better human being."   What are the odds one of the 100 best baseball players in the world is also one of the 100 best human beings?   Nope, Nope, Nope.   Not happening.

[dbminn]

My guess is Sano will be the biggest Twins star in 2020. He was pretty healthy for the last 4-1/2 months of the 2019 season. I think he'll report in shape and ready to go. 

 

Kepler has just entered his prime years. I think he has another gear left in him at the plate. Hit a lot of pop-ups last year. More likely his year will be similar to last season, but that ain't bad. 

 

Buxton still has the highest upside but he hasn't proven he can stay on the field. I can't bet he'll stay healthy this year either. I hope I'm wrong.

 

Trevor May will give the Twins a solid 1-2 punch in the bullpen. I'd extend him for two years right now if he's open to it.

 

Luis Arraez is my longshot candidate to be in the top 3. He has so much talent with the bat. In 2019, he had a fair amount of pull power (.171 ISO), but hit too many grounders to the same direction. I believe he will learn to lift more balls to RF in the future. His upside is 4.5 WAR, maybe a little higher if he improves his fielding. His 2020 downside risk is fairly high too, since other teams have a book on him for the first time. 

 

 

[Squirrel]

Oh hello Carole. I hope you’ve had a pleasant holiday season.

The thread’s title is “who is ready for stardom” so I zeroed on that. As far as team MVP goes for next season? Beats me.

I hope all the players listed have something resembling complete years and contribute a lot. Polanco seems to be the best bet, but I don’t know for sure.

What about you?

Ah, so you were commenting on the title and not the body of the article.

 

I don’t know, honestly. A whole season of Sano could prove interesting. So could a season with Kep healthy. Those would be my players to watch make enough headway and differences in the season upcoming to garner mvp attention.