Front Page: Starting Pitching Plan B: Snatching Lottery Tickets in Bulk

[jorgenswest]

Back to plan B and I appreciate those stay on topic.

 

Did Jimmy Nelson land anywhere? With his injuries he might be a reliever now but there is talent in that arm.

[Brandon]

Do it. Sign both Walker and Wood then trade for Archer. All three could start the season with the Twins if Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Graterol need more minor league time.

[raindog]

I like this idea. Not what I wanted going into the offseason, but it’s probably the best option now.

 

They would then still have payroll flexibility and prospect capital...enough to go after Nolan Arenado, perhaps.

[Major League Ready]

 

Do it. Sign both Walker and Wood then trade for Archer. All three could start the season with the Twins if Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, and Graterol need more minor league time.

 

I don't understand the support for Walker. He has had 1 season season. Great potential but no results. I like taking a shot with Archer but I am guessing the Pirates hope for a bounce back and deal him at the deadline. I would like to know what the team's medical experts think about Price. 

 

I would like to get Wood for sure and then trade for either Archer or Price. I could be convinced on Walker if the brain trust is convinced he is healthy. Robbie Ray is interesting but I don't see the Dbacks trading him either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't understand the support for Walker. He has had 1 season season. Great potential but no results.

That's not necessarily a bad profile. Wasn't that the case with Phil Hughes too? Arrieta?

 

Walker was a 1st round pick, top 10 prospect, debuted at 21, best season at 24 before he got hurt at 25, still only 27. Should be affordable, not much risk, with upside.

 

Wood would be good for a similar role too. Could just come down to which one your scouts (and medical staff) like the best.

[kdag23]

Doesn't the moves the FO makes to acquire starting pitching depend in what happens with Donaldson? He may be playing us, but he hasn't been signed yet so it's still within the realm of possibility. If it did turn out that we signed him I would say use remaining payroll money to get Wood or Walker, or both. If they're not able to sign JD I would say go the trade route and get the best starter you can pry away from a team looking for a corner outfielder and prospects with the understanding that you're going to have to part with at least one of the higher rated. In that type of scenario, maybe there's still some money to take a one year deal on one of Wood, Walker, or Hill.

[sdangus]

While I think these guys do all have potential for turnaround seasons and could maybe trap lightning in a bottle, all 3 would also require major league contracts and roster spots. who are you going to jetison to take a chance on 3 guys? Keep in mind Donaldson is still on the docket.

 

[specialiststeve]

 

Great article. I doubt Falvine give any consideration to what fandom thinks they want.The plan is clearly to try and develop pitching internally. Your article points out an approach that might buy us some time.

 

Bingo! Lots of fans are looking for the "big splash" which I understand and would have loved but keeping your own quality guys and developing them (ie Tampa Bay) allows a smaller market team to consistently be competitive. Getting short term deals with players and then moving them for top prospects or young players on the cusp is what we should be doing. We did it last year and it paid off tremendously.. 

 

Walker on a 2 year deal... Trade Rosario for a quality pitcher and we should be good to go.... 

[Brandon]

I don't understand the support for Walker. He has had 1 season season. Great potential but no results. I like taking a shot with Archer but I am guessing the Pirates hope for a bounce back and deal him at the deadline. I would like to know what the team's medical experts think about Price.

 

I would like to get Wood for sure and then trade for either Archer or Price. I could be convinced on Walker if the brain trust is convinced he is healthy. Robbie Ray is interesting but I don't see the Dbacks trading him either.

If we are not going to get a proven ace, I would rather have several pitchers who can break out to increase the odds that 1 does.

[bird]

 

That's not necessarily a bad profile. Wasn't that the case with Phil Hughes too? Arrieta?

Walker was a 1st round pick, top 10 prospect, debuted at 21, best season at 24 before he got hurt at 25, still only 27. Should be affordable, not much risk, with upside.

Wood would be good for a similar role too. Could just come down to which one your scouts (and medical staff) like the best.

 

 

Exactly. I'd be completely shocked if the Twins haven't studied the medicals and the most recent tapes on all of these bounceback guys and at a minimum attempted to learn more in in direct and indirect conversations if their people gave them hopeful reports.

[joemama]

Along with all other Twins fans, I've been hoping for one stud SP, which can now come only via trade. But I've also been hoping we sign Wood...consistently good numbers prior to his injury, AND a great WS start in Game 4 in 2017. Andy McCullough just wrote a great article for The Athletic (subscription required) about Wood and that start. Post-season results matter to me, and he was the only guy to beat Houston in Houston that year. Kershaw, Darvish, Severino (twice), Tanaka, Sabathia, and Sale all lost.

 

No to Hill...age significantly increases the reliability risk and his recent episode in the news raises a flag on his character.

 

Relatively indifferent on Walker. He would be a decent addition, but only as an alternative to Wood...unless, of course, we aren't able to trade for that stud.

[The Wise One]

Lottery tickets come in many shapes and prizes. Some cost only money like Walker,How much money is correct is a mysterious game. Gausman gets a 9 million contract. A once top 20 prospect that never was. Then there is Wacha who gets reliever money after being a top pitcher for a winning team. Crappy pitchers like Porcello and Perez are signed.  Some of these players must look at a contract Gibson and Roake got and use them as benchmarks for signing. That could explain why they are not signed when the Porcello types are signed

[Major League Ready]

 

That's not necessarily a bad profile. Wasn't that the case with Phil Hughes too? Arrieta?

Walker was a 1st round pick, top 10 prospect, debuted at 21, best season at 24 before he got hurt at 25, still only 27. Should be affordable, not much risk, with upside.

Wood would be good for a similar role too. Could just come down to which one your scouts (and medical staff) like the best.

 

OK - Walker is a good lottery ticket. Wood seems like a better bet but I don't see why we could not sign both.

[Twodogs]

OK - Walker is a good lottery ticket. Wood seems like a better bet but I don't see why we could not sign both.

I think that for sure you need to sign at least 2 of these guys, maybe 3, so as to make sure you at least hit on one of them, they should be inexpensive and you won't have to sign any of them long term, probably all 1 year deals with options. Bring them in, let them compete, I mean they have done this before with Anibal Sanchez. They brought him in, he didn't do so well in spring training and then they let him go. He ended up doing well for Atlanta afterwards, but the Twins weren't really out much.

[Rosterman]

Will Berrios replicate or be better in 2020?

 

Can Odorizzi do the same. Also, Pineda...missing games on the front end compared to the abck end.

 

Considering the Twins were extremely lucky and pretty much had a five-man rotation. 

 

You'd like to think that Dobnak could replicate Gibson's eprformance, if not be better.

 

You would like to think that Thorpe is working his buns off and could replicate Perez, hopefully better.

 

So can we expect 95-100 wins, in a lineup without Cron and Schoop but with more Arraez?

 

The line-up still ahs to score runs.

 

And can an 8-man bullpen give us for the entire season better production without having names like Magill, Parker, Mejia, Moran, Dyson anchoring the backend of games?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

OK - Walker is a good lottery ticket. Wood seems like a better bet but I don't see why we could not sign both.

Just thinking that two guys in this class may not want to sign in the same place and have to compete with each other. (We do have spots for both at the moment, but the presumption is we could/should trade for a better SP yet this offseason.) Even with Pineda's suspension, neither Wood nor Walker probably wants to get squeezed out by May 10th.

 

And no, I don't know how the Mets signed both Porcello and Wacha. FWIW, Porcello got a higher guarantee and is a NJ native, plus Wacha is a former client of the Mets GM. But generally, teams generally don't sign FA starters once they already have 5 spots presumably filled.

 

Of course, that's presuming they have multiple comparable offers. If the Twins offer a few extra mil in base salary over the next highest bidder, maybe that would be enough enticement.

[Han Joelo]

I've kind of been in a Twins bubble for a few months.  Or out of it, I guess.  I never got my hopes up for a Cole or Strasburg level signing, and was only mildly disappointed MadBum went elsewhere.

 

Whatever plan you want to call this--I'd say it's always been plan A.  This type of reclamation mining has to be the top thing listed on Falvine's resume.  They just have to pull it off...correctly.

 

At any rate, I'd lay even odds that one of these three pitchers will have a much better season than one of the other three I mentioned.

[USAFChief]

I've kind of been in a Twins bubble for a few months. Or out of it, I guess. I never got my hopes up for a Cole or Strasburg level signing, and was only mildly disappointed MadBum went elsewhere.

 

Whatever plan you want to call this--I'd say it's always been plan A. This type of reclamation mining has to be the top thing listed on Falvine's resume. They just have to pull it off...correctly.

 

At any rate, I'd lay even odds that one of these three pitchers will have a much better season than one of the other three I mentioned.

which one?

[Major League Ready]

 

Just thinking that two guys in this class may not want to sign in the same place and have to compete with each other. (We do have spots for both at the moment, but the presumption is we could/should trade for a better SP yet this offseason.) Even with Pineda's suspension, neither Wood nor Walker probably wants to get squeezed out by May 10th.

 

And no, I don't know how the Mets signed both Porcello and Wacha. FWIW, Porcello got a higher guarantee and is a NJ native, plus Wacha is a former client of the Mets GM. But generally, teams generally don't sign FA starters once they already have 5 spots presumably filled.

 

Of course, that's presuming they have multiple comparable offers. If the Twins offer a few extra mil in base salary over the next highest bidder, maybe that would be enough enticement.

 

I am sure you would agree that aggressive does not cost much in this case and has big upside.  Pay up enough they can't say no and get an option year for the guarantee.

[FargoFanMan]

The real questions is why did it come down to this? We’ve shelled out 20M to a star before. Why are we at this point of even discussing this when we could have made over and above competitive offers to the top 2 guys????? Am I out of line or do I just care too much?

[jorgenswest]

The real questions is why did it come down to this? We’ve shelled out 20M to a star before. Why are we at this point of even discussing this when we could have made over and above competitive offers to the top 2 guys????? Am I out of line or do I just care too much?

Not out of line but not this discussion either. I appreciate the conversation of looking forward and have been avoiding the threads where we have an opportunity to voice our frustration and disgust with the front office. I would imagine others are so upset they don’t get this discussion and avoid it.

 

From the current free agent group I think Walker and Hill in the second half have the best upside. That would be my plan B but a few have also pointed out how Wood might help and until reading this I hadn’t thought about him.

[Han Joelo]

 

which one?

Well obviously I know the answer to that, but before I divulge it publicly, I need to see if Falvine knows it.

[Oxtung]

This wouldn't help the Twins in 2020 but I would like to see them inquire about Jameson Taillon. He underwent TJ surgery last fall and will miss 2020 but it will be his first year of arbitration so the Twins could still get him for 2021 and 2022. I wonder if the Twins could get him at a discounted prospect rate. The Pirates are out of contention and will be for several years; it doesn't make a ton of sense for them to pay him to rehab and then pitch in 2021 then hope he is good enough to trade going into 2022.

[Linus]

I would grab walker now so we don’t get shutout and then starting working the phones for a real upgrade

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

Thinking this is as good a thread as any for a tidbit from Dan Hayes, from this morning's roster projection article in the Athletic:

Basically, we’re kind of flipping a coin on how the back end of the rotation may look until Pineda returns on May 10 and Hill works his way back into action. But it could be extremely varied.

Still, the Twins are high on Thorpe because of his pitch mix and they believe that his ability to eventually adjust to new levels will kick in this season. The team also has some potentially very interesting veteran options coming via yet-to-be-announced non-roster invites to spring training.

 

[Doctor Gast]

W/ ST approaching plan C will do, invite some non roster Walker & or Woods .

& What`s the deal w/ Hill? I thought he already signed. It sounds like here there is still an option. I liked Hills signing better than Bailey ( though not guaranteed, there`s better upside) & he was excited to be a mentor to the staff.

[laloesch]

 

Will Berrios replicate or be better in 2020?

 

Can Odorizzi do the same. Also, Pineda...missing games on the front end compared to the abck end.

 

Considering the Twins were extremely lucky and pretty much had a five-man rotation. 

 

You'd like to think that Dobnak could replicate Gibson's eprformance, if not be better.

 

You would like to think that Thorpe is working his buns off and could replicate Perez, hopefully better.

 

So can we expect 95-100 wins, in a lineup without Cron and Schoop but with more Arraez?

 

The line-up still ahs to score runs.

 

And can an 8-man bullpen give us for the entire season better production without having names like Magill, Parker, Mejia, Moran, Dyson anchoring the backend of games?

 

I think Dobnak is starting material. He can certainly pitch as good Gibson (who was not good in the 2nd half of last season), if not better. Down the stretch Dobnak was .6 - .8 war i think. Still scrub territory but improving. Thorpe has control problems, but if he gets over the hump of jumping from AAA to the majors he could make it as a starter.

 

I still think the Twins should consider putting Trevor May back into a starting role.

[nicksaviking]

 

Thinking this is as good a thread as any for a tidbit from Dan Hayes, from this morning's roster projection article in the Athletic:

Basically, we’re kind of flipping a coin on how the back end of the rotation may look until Pineda returns on May 10 and Hill works his way back into action. But it could be extremely varied.

Still, the Twins are high on Thorpe because of his pitch mix and they believe that his ability to eventually adjust to new levels will kick in this season. The team also has some potentially very interesting veteran options coming via yet-to-be-announced non-roster invites to spring training.

 

I kind of get the feeling that my definition of the word "interesting" is going to be different than Dan Hayes'.

[Musk21]

 

I kind of get the feeling that my definition of the word "interesting" is going to be different than Dan Hayes'.

Yeah, we all know what's out there. The options have been bandied about here for 3 months.

[nicksaviking]

I could stretch my definition of the word interesting to include Taijuan Walker, and Danny Salazar may get a solid, "Hmmmm OK". 

 

Everyone else I see on the free agent list probably earns an "Eh, let's just hand the job to Thorpe instead" from me.