Front Page: Here Is What War Projections Say About the Twins and White Sox

[Major League Ready]

 

I know most people nowadays think they know everything about baseball because they bury their noses in the mlb analytics almanac for nerds handbook. I will go on record to say any trade involving Eddie Rosario would be an asinine idea....I watch the games not the computer printouts. it is painful to say over and over again...ANALytics is an evaluation tool. Not a performance indicator or predictor. Eddie Rosario is a team leader and pressure performer. look at the tape of the Twins at Boston, game #3 of a three game series...bottom of the ninth. You guys...and by that i mean the "senior good old boy writers" of Twins Daily should call this the Derek Falvey fan club forum... ..Their intention this off season was never to improve this team. Its way too easy to do nothing thus never get saddled with making a mistake. I am so sick of you idiots sugar coating everything these two dolts do or justifying everything they do not do i may just vomit right now. Ride falvines coattails right to Boston and go write for the beanpole herald. to call this Twins daily is an insult to any twins fan and an aberration to baseball fans in general.

 

Chicago was at the bottom of the league in part because as a team their plate discipline was at the bottom of the league. I would bet that was part of the reason they signed Grandal was to provide an example / leadership. He takes great ABs. The Yankees have a culture / history of taking "professional" ABs. Rosario's plate discipline onthe other hand is at the bottom of the league and he makes more defensive mistakes than anyone on the team. Hard to evaluate leadership dynamics from afar but the team might just be better off without this type of "leadership". 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think left field on your fangraphs page means left field not the left side of the field. DRS then would be worse because of a whole lot of factors. fly balls, arm, etc.

No, it means left side, as opposed to up the middle or right side.

 

You can see this by just taking the total MLB pitching split for groundballs, where it shows 53167 total batters faced.

 

If you then add left field to the groundball split, you get a subset of 20374 TBF. Do the same for center, you get 17153, or right, 15640. Add those 3 together, and you get the same 53167. So every groundball in their system is also tagged with either left, center, or right. There is no distinction between "infield" or "outfield" groundballs.

 

Edit to add: And back to the White Sox specifically, you can look at the advanced fielding stats for Tim Anderson and see that in 2019, he was much closer to average in range (RngR) than in errors (ErrR). He was also above average in double plays (DPR or rGDP). That profile is consistent with preventing hits at a league average rate, but having below average DRS/UZR metrics.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tim-anderson/15172/stats?position=SS#fieldingadvanced

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/glossary/

[Number3]

Lost in all of this is whether or not Buxton and Sano, who I think are already on the Twins' roster, can finally stay active for an entire season and live up to their potential. That in itself would be a plus. In 2019 The Twins won 101 games as a team and simply did not perform against the Yankees. Looking for miracles on the free agent market would guarantee nothing and could possibly be a disruption. Its hard to improve over 101 wins and the idea of projecting a mythical roster into the playoffs is a mistake. It could also be a fact that this years Yankees really are unbeatable no matter what the Twins or any other team do so why bother. Just be happy you are not in the East and play ball.

[The Wise One]

 

No, it means left side, as opposed to up the middle or right side.

 

You can see this by just taking the total MLB pitching split for groundballs, where it shows 53167 total batters faced.

 

If you then add left field to the groundball split, you get a subset of 20374 TBF. Do the same for center, you get 17153, or right, 15640. Add those 3 together, and you get the same 53167. So every groundball in their system is also tagged with either left, center, or right. There is no distinction between "infield" or "outfield" groundballs.

 

Edit to add: And back to the White Sox specifically, you can look at the advanced fielding stats for Tim Anderson and see that in 2019, he was much closer to average in range (RngR) than in errors (ErrR). He was also above average in double plays (DPR or rGDP). That profile is consistent with preventing hits at a league average rate, but having below average DRS/UZR metrics. 

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/tim-anderson/15172/stats?position=SS#fieldingadvanced

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/glossary/

With that negative of UZR and DRS he is performing something horribly wrong. That wromg leads to more potential runs. With pitchers that put the ball in play that would not be a good thing

[Otto von Ballpark]

With that negative of UZR and DRS he is performing something horribly wrong. That wromg leads to more potential runs. With pitchers that put the ball in play that would not be a good thing

Sure, although the marginal net effect may only be a couple runs for the whole season.

 

Might also help to look at multiple years. Anderson, for example, was below average in 2019 and 2017, but average or slightly above in 2016 and 2018. On balance, he's still below average, but not nearly as much as his 2019 metrics alone would suggest. Maybe half that? -5 or so? That would reduce any marginal net effect for Keuchel/Gonzalez too.

 

Furthermore, Moncada in his first season at 3B in 2019 was actually above average by UZR, although below average by DRS. He may very well be average, in which case there may be no net negative effect on Keuchel/Gonzalez from 3B at all.

[The Wise One]

 

Sure, although the marginal net effect may only be a couple runs for the whole season.

Might also help to look at multiple years. Anderson, for example, was below average in 2019 and 2017, but average or slightly above in 2016 and 2018. On balance, he's still below average, but not nearly as much as his 2019 metrics alone would suggest. Maybe half that? -5 or so? That would reduce any marginal net effect for Keuchel/Gonzalez too.

Furthermore, Moncada in his first season at 3B in 2019 was actually above average by UZR, although below average by DRS. He may very well be average, in which case there may be no net negative effect on Keuchel/Gonzalez from 3B at all.

A couple of runs?-5 defensive runs  is a loss. The question was do those shortcomings on the left side make it worse for Keuchel and Gonzales. Does your minus 5 become a minus 7 with 2 pitchers throwing pitches that get in that direction with great frequency

[Otto von Ballpark]

A couple of runs?-5 defensive runs is a loss. The question was do those shortcomings on the left side make it worse for Keuchel and Gonzales. Does your minus 5 become a minus 7 with 2 pitchers throwing pitches that get in that direction with great frequency

Actually about 10 runs equals 1 win, in DRS/UZR/WAR terms. (And by -5, I meant that might be his season total, rather than a change of minus 5.)

 

So this is exactly what I've been saying -- a shift of -2 would only represent about one-fifth of a win.