Front Page: Here Is What War Projections Say About the Twins and White Sox

[Dave Overlund]

I’ve said this elsewhere but the Twins might be the 2019 Indians, and the White Sox the 2019 Twins. One team thinking they could stand pat (or even subtract guys) and coast to a

division title, the other team coming seemingly from out of nowhere to make a run at the division.

 

I think the Twins lack of moves this season is borderline arrogant, and that we as fans have to take the Sox seriously.

 

We’ve never experienced it here, but the type of offseason the White Sox are having sends the roster a message about ownerships expectations for success. If you are a veteran with Minnesota, and you see the team sitting on its hands, what message does that send?

 

Jose Berrios himself said it last year on Twitter, this team only cares about making money. I’m guessing he’s not the only one in the clubhouse that thinks that.

[MABB1959]

 

I've been nervous of this since '16 & '17 when they acquired Moncada, Kopech, Basabe, Giolito, Lopez, Dunning, Jimenez, Rutherford, etc.  And that's just off the top of head.  They went out and completely flipped Eaton, Sale, Quintana, and Frazier for solid prospects.  These are just the highlights from those deals too.  On top of all of this, they're acquiring veterans...Plus Luis Robert.

 

I'm taking the ChiSox seriously.  It might not be this year, but it'll be soon.  Our window is not as large as we're all thinking.

 

And it will slam shut once Buxton, Berrios and Sano reach free-agency.  They are probably dreaming of the Yankees jersey already. 

 

[SwainZag]

 

I’ve said this elsewhere but the Twins might be the 2019 Indians, and the White Sox the 2019 Twins. One team thinking they could stand pat (or even subtract guys) and coast to a division title, the other team coming seemingly from out of nowhere to make a run at the division. I think the Twins lack of moves this season is borderline arrogant, and that we as fans have to take the Sox seriously. We’ve never experienced it here, but the type of offseason the White Sox are having sends the roster a message about ownerships expectations for success. If you are a veteran with Minnesota, and you see the team sitting on its hands, what message does that send? Jose Berrios himself said it last year on Twitter, this team only cares about making money. I’m guessing he’s not the only one in the clubhouse that thinks that.

 

I hope the players wait until the season starts before declaring a mutiny on the team.  Jose was mad about Morin being dealt for cash considerations.  He was already DFA'd that same week.  Would have tweeted anything if Morin was straight released?

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

5 years from now this winter's signings may also look unremarkable. ChiSox were deemed to have won the 2014/15 off season. Doesn't mean anything was my point.

Fair enough.

 

The White Sox signed the 7, 13, and 25 top free agents out of the Top 25 that offseason per MLBTR. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/2014-15-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html

 

I don’t remember what the discussion was on Twins Daily. And my next question would be what the White Sox payrolls were in those years, as a percentage of revenues.

 

Either way, I don’t think the 14-15 offseason has much bearing on what is happening now, except to say that the White Sox ownership appears willing to spend when they feel an opportunity is in front of them.

Edited December 27, 2019 by Hosken Bombo Disco

[Channing1964]

In my honest opinion i do not think the Twins need be concerned with Chicago Or Cleveland threatening their division title aspirations. Cleveland is obviously not concerned with winning and Chicago is just Chicago. True that they have added quality players. Give them an A for effort. To me they fall short on outfield defense, infield defense and starting pitching. Even though they have Keuchel and Gonzalez, they are relying too much on Giolito to not regress(unlikely), Rodon to bounce back from Tj surgery(unlikely), Lopez to improve(highly unlikely), and Cease to break out(extremely doubtful). Also, what have they done with the bullpen? not much if anything. Their players don't hustle, take extra bases,fight hard when down, and generally i feel are just not winners. Thats their top dawgs fault. Unfortunately for them neither Encarnacion nor Mazzara are defensive wizards either. Who is gonna play 2nd base? Center? Do they even have a gold glover on the roster? Philosophically we beat them like a drum since 2008...and those White Sox were more talented and better managed. Lets worry about the next step...hear me Derek? To just win the Central is not gonna do it this time.

[Dman]

 

http://www.soxon35th.com/how-close-is-the-2020-american-league-central-race/

 

That is a balanced article and comes to the same conclusion I posted earlier.  Things have to go right with the young players for the Sox to win the division but the talent is there and they match up to us even closer than I originally thought.  If the Indians or Twins stumble out of the gate Chicago could be tough to catch.  

 

Lots of things can happen between April and October and injuries and depth will play a role.  The best team will win it in the end.  I hope that team is the Twins.

[Trevor0333]

I think all teams will have some regression purely from the standpoint of fewer teams intentionally tanking. It was like a record number last season.

[old nurse]

 

Yeah, I agree that Anderson is much more likely to regress and I don’t really expect Moncada to have a “down year.” He hits the ball hard (unlike Anderson) but with a BABIP that high I do expect his numbers to come down a bit.

Perception perhaps. Moncada had a hard hit 38% last year. That is about his average. That is league average

[Dave Overlund]

I hope the players wait until the season starts before declaring a mutiny on the team.  Jose was mad about Morin being dealt for cash considerations.  He was already DFA'd that same week.  Would have tweeted anything if Morin was straight released?

I think that is a fair question. However, I personally don’t think that Matt Morin move was the only thing that happened and gave Berrios this impression. Maybe that was the one that set him off for whatever reason, but I doubt that would be the only example he would give if you could ask him to speak honestly.

 

I think the fan base has had the same impression for a long time, along with some media members. The concern is if the players feel that way as well. It could be the reason Berrios, Buxton and Rosario have been reluctant to sign extensions here, and the reason that seemingly no free agent wanted to come here.

[old nurse]

 

Fair enough.

The White Sox signed the 7, 13, and 25 top free agents out of the Top 25 that offseason per MLBTR. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/2014-15-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html

I don’t remember what the discussion was on Twins Daily. And my next question would be what the White Sox payrolls were in those years, as a percentage of revenues.

Either way, I don’t think the 14-15 offseason has much bearing on what is happening now, except to say that the White Sox ownership appears willing to spend when they feel an opportunity is in front of them.

Last year the Phillies signed the 2,13 and 34 per ESPN. They went nowhere. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Last year the Phillies signed the 2,13 and 34 per ESPN. They went nowhere. 

 

To long term deals......not one year deals. They also played in the hardest division in baseball. Not the easiest. 

 

No one is saying the signings for the Sox are guaranteed to work out, and make them a 90+ win team. All anyone is saying is that they are likely a lot better than they were last year. Both in terms of growth from their young players, new additions in FA, and graduating 2 of the top 10-20 prospects in the game.

[old nurse]

 

 

In my honest opinion i do not think the Twins need be concerned with Chicago Or Cleveland threatening their division title aspirations. Cleveland is obviously not concerned with winning and Chicago is just Chicago. True that they have added quality players. Give them an A for effort. To me they fall short on outfield defense, infield defense and starting pitching. Even though they have Keuchel and Gonzalez, they are relying too much on Giolito to not regress(unlikely), Rodon to bounce back from Tj surgery(unlikely), Lopez to improve(highly unlikely), and Cease to break out(extremely doubtful). Also, what have they done with the bullpen? not much if anything. Their players don't hustle, take extra bases,fight hard when down, and generally i feel are just not winners. Thats their top dawgs fault. Unfortunately for them neither Encarnacion nor Mazzara are defensive wizards either. Who is gonna play 2nd base? Center? Do they even have a gold glover on the roster? Philosophically we beat them like a drum since 2008...and those White Sox were more talented and better managed. Lets worry about the next step...hear me Derek? To just win the Central is not gonna do it this time.

Yolmer Sanchez, GG 2B White Sox. Career OPS 80

[SwainZag]

 

I think that is a fair question. However, I personally don’t think that Matt Morin move was the only thing that happened and gave Berrios this impression. Maybe that was the one that set him off for whatever reason, but I doubt that would be the only example he would give if you could ask him to speak honestly.

I think the fan base has had the same impression for a long time, along with some media members. The concern is if the players feel that way as well. It could be the reason Berrios, Buxton and Rosario have been reluctant to sign extensions here, and the reason that seemingly no free agent wanted to come here.

 

It was the only thing he ever tweeted in terms of money that I know of, and it was in direct response to Morin getting traded, followed by “I wish you the best my man! Let’s get it!”  

 

We know that Jose declined an extension last offseason, but also said this was reported: Berrios, however, didn’t rule out signing a contract that would extend his stay in Minnesota — perhaps even before Opening Day 2019. “I have to manage my business, too,” said the 24-year-old. “…We’re waiting for the best for both sides. If it doesn’t happen this year, maybe next year.”

 

It was reported 2 years ago that Buxton turned down an extension, along with 5 other young Twins players, but details never emerged as to what they were.  There have been a lot of posts about Buxton, Sano and Berrios in a hurry to get out of town and sign elsewhere, but this to me almost seems more out of frustration than holding any water.

 

[SwainZag]

 

Yolmer Sanchez, GG 2B White Sox. Career OPS 80

 

Sanchez's career OPS is .638.  Great with the glove but pretty much the definition of a black hole with the bat.

[old nurse]

 

To long term deals......not one year deals. They also played in the hardest division in baseball. Not the easiest. 

 

No one is saying the signings for the Sox are guaranteed to work out, and make them a 90+ win team. All anyone is saying is that they are likely a lot better than they were last year. Both in terms of growth from their young players, new additions in FA, and graduating 2 of the top 10-20 prospects in the game.

Grandal and Keuchel are not one year deals. Length of contract is a moot point.  Top 10 ranked prospects and immediate impact. Still waiting for  Buxton or Sano to play a full year. How long ago was that they were top 10.  It is all on paper. You have no idea if it will work.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Grandal and Keuchel are not one year deals. Length of contract is a moot point.  Top 10 ranked prospects and immediate impact. Still waiting for  Buxton or Sano to play a full year. How long ago was that they were top 10.  It is all on paper. You have no idea if it will work.

 

which is literally waht the post that you quoted said......

[Dave Overlund]

Last year the Phillies signed the 2,13 and 34 per ESPN. They went nowhere.

 

I think the difference is that the Phillies tried to buy a team without a core group of players. The Twins have a solid core of players and just need a few pieces to be a real contender.

 

I think most would agree that buying a team isn’t a winning strategy. You have to grow a core of players and supplement them with free agents and trades when the time is right.

[SomeGuy]

 

Last year the Phillies signed the 2,13 and 34 per ESPN. They went nowhere. 

They were in 1st place when one of those signings season ended with an injury.

[Brandon]

The Whitesox look so much better on paper until you look further at how awful their bench appears. How bad will their team be affected by an injury to a starting player?

 

The Twins just need to replace Cron and Gibson to return to status quo of a team that won a 101 games. That seems more than likely. The question for us is can we find that ace starter for the playoffs and can we sign Donaldson to be our improved offensive and defensive player. The answer to those two questions could push us to that 110 win team....

[RaoulDuke]

It is worrying that this off season seems pretty familiar. 

 

Club with young/ young vet talent that can break out signs a couple mid tier free agents to boost their roster, previous division winner plays it cheap and only returns/ retains talent.

 

[The Wise One]

 

Seems unremarkable, in my opinion.

It does seem like the claim was either by an over exuberant Sox fan or a writer being sarcastic but since  it was on the internet the sarcasm intended was lost. 

[The Wise One]

Do defensive metrics matter?  Look at a spray chart of Keuchel and Gonzales of where the balls go. Look at DRS of 3b, ss, and left field for the White Sox. . They all average -9 DRS. Keuchel and Gonzales  are below average strikeout pitchers. That should skew their projections down. Yet I don't think they projection systems take into account the changes in a team's defense. So either the projection can be of limited use or the defensive metrics are of little use

 

 

[big dog]

 

Sanchez's career OPS is .638.  Great with the glove but pretty much the definition of a black hole with the bat.

The White Sox put Yolmer on waivers and he's now a free agent.  Good glove, horrible bat, and his baserunning decisions were dreadful.  There was a Sox game last summer, I believe against the Twins, where he got on base.  Steve Stone, who I think is brilliant, said "Yolmer needs to stay at first here, this would be a terrible time to try and steal a base." Sanchez immediately broke for second and was thrown out.  It's like Stone knew exactly what Sanchez was thinking. 30 bases stolen, 23 caught stealings, and numerous bad decisions at other times.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yet I don't think they projection systems take into account the changes in a team's defense.

These projections do account for defense -- it's fWAR for pitchers (based on FIP), and includes dWAR for position players.

 

Now, those individual dWAR figures at this point might be based on opportunities in front of a league-average K% / GB% staff, or in front of the 2019 staff, etc. (Later projections will be more refined, especially when projected team standings come into play.) So you could be right that swapping in a Keuchel will change the number of defensive opportunities and could produce some slight shifts in the numbers.

 

But I think the emphasis would be on "slight". Keep in mind that even as a durable SP, Keuchel still throws a relatively small percentage of his team's innings (less than 14%), he still gets quite a few Ks and flyballs (just less than average), and the White Sox actually converted ground balls to left field into outs at a league average rate last year, even with those below-average DRS figures. If the negative effect is primarily errors, note that error rates are pretty low, and it might be offset a little by an increase in double plays.

 

Plus, remember that DRS is on a run level -- it takes about 10 DRS to equal 1 win (or 1 WAR). So even something like a -2 DRS change might look bad on the DRS scale, but it barely registers on the win/WAR scale.

[The Wise One]

 

These projections do account for defense -- it's fWAR for pitchers (based on FIP), and includes dWAR for position players.

 

Now, those individual dWAR figures at this point might be based on opportunities in front of a league-average K% / GB% staff, or in front of the 2019 staff, etc. (Later projections will be more refined, especially when projected team standings come into play.) So you could be right that swapping in a Keuchel will change the number of defensive opportunities and could produce some slight shifts in the numbers.

 

But I think the emphasis would be on "slight". Keep in mind that even as a durable SP, Keuchel still throws a relatively small percentage of his team's innings (less than 14%), he still gets quite a few Ks and flyballs (just less than average), and the White Sox actually converted ground balls to left field into outs at a league average rate last year, even with those below-average DRS figures. If the negative effect is primarily errors, note that error rates are pretty low, and it might be offset a little by an increase in double plays.

 

Plus, remember that DRS is on a run level -- it takes about 10 DRS to equal 1 win (or 1 WAR). So even something like a -2 DRS change might look bad on the DRS scale, but it barely registers on the win/WAR scale.

Ground balls to left field. What is the percent that are outs? The problem in left field would be the flyballs that are not outs.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Ground balls to left field. What is the percent that are outs? The problem in left field would be the flyballs that are not outs.  

Just to be clear, by "left field", I mean "left side".

 

AVG on ground balls to the left side was .234 in 2019, both for the CHW pitchers and for MLB as a whole. Up the middle, CHW .278, MLB .269, and to the right side, CHW .190, MLB .202. Which makes me wonder if errors are the primary source of those negative DRS figures.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=11,76&splitArrPitch=&position=P&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=2&startDate=2019-03-01&endDate=2019-11-01&players=&filter=&sort=23,1

[The Wise One]

 

Just to be clear, by "left field", I mean "left side".

 

AVG on ground balls to the left side was .234 in 2019, both for the CHW pitchers and for MLB as a whole. Up the middle, CHW .278, MLB .269, and to the right side, CHW .190, MLB .202. Which makes me wonder if errors are the primary source of those negative DRS figures.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=11,76&splitArrPitch=&position=P&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=2&startDate=2019-03-01&endDate=2019-11-01&players=&filter=&sort=23,1

I think left field on your fangraphs page means left field not the left side of the field. DRS then would be worse because of a whole lot of factors. fly balls, arm, etc.

[Channing1964]

Yolmer Sanchez, GG 2B White Sox. Career OPS 80

gg is a term i do not understand...if his career ops is 80 why did they wait until this off season to cut him? and if you mean .800 then thats pretty good for a 2b. i mean i obviously don't know what i am talking about. The Twins will he fine eith a rotation of Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Littell, and Graterol. we should trade some pitching depth to fill the hole at first base.

[Channing1964]

I know most people nowadays think they know everything about baseball because they bury their noses in the mlb analytics almanac for nerds handbook. I will go on record to say any trade involving Eddie Rosario would be an asinine idea....I watch the games not the computer printouts. it is painful to say over and over again...ANALytics is an evaluation tool. Not a performance indicator or predictor. Eddie Rosario is a team leader and pressure performer. look at the tape of the Twins at Boston, game #3 of a three game series...bottom of the ninth. You guys...and by that i mean the "senior good old boy writers" of Twins Daily should call this the Derek Falvey fan club forum... ..Their intention this off season was never to improve this team. Its way too easy to do nothing thus never get saddled with making a mistake. I am so sick of you idiots sugar coating everything these two dolts do or justifying everything they do not do i may just vomit right now. Ride falvines coattails right to Boston and go write for the beanpole herald. to call this Twins daily is an insult to any twins fan and an aberration to baseball fans in general.

[big dog]

 

gg is a term i do not understand...if his career ops is 80 why did they wait until this off season to cut him? and if you mean .800 then thats pretty good for a 2b. i mean i obviously don't know what i am talking about. The Twins will he fine eith a rotation of Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer, Littell, and Graterol. we should trade some pitching depth to fill the hole at first base.

Not my post, but Sanchez won a Gold Glove this year, so that's the GG.  Agreed, an OPS of 80 would be either really good or mindnumbingly bad, depending on where the missing decimal point should be, but the 80 refers to OPS+, which is basically the OPS, adjusted for the ballpark and for the league so that 100 should be the average.  His career OPS+ is 80, and last year it was 73.

 

His OPS+ was 97 two years ago, and 87 last year, so the 73 now suggests that they thought they had a player and now realize they were wrong.  73 was the second-lowest OPS in the majors among players who qualified for the batting title (#134 out of 135).

 

I took a quick look at the OPS+ for players who appeared in at least 81 games.  There were 315 players, and a score of 73 got him in a tie for 278th place.  Tied with Logan Forsythe, in fact.