Front Page: Opening Thoughts: Brusdar Graterol (What Would You Do?)

[Squirrel]

No openers. Openers are the crutch of the desperate. It's the basically equivalent on the wildcat offense.

So then, do you want Graterol as a starter only or reliever only, in the majors or in AAA? If Graterol is on a pitch limit, being a starter or a stacker is an option. I’m not sold on the whole starter idea, either, but it could be a good way to utilize Graterol if he’s on a limit or to get him stretched by gradually increasing innings.

[Brandon Brooks]

This is what I'd put my chips on right now -- and also what I'd enjoy seeing the most, I think.

 

I'm not sure what the effectiveness is of stretching a guy back out via primary pitching vs. gradually increasing minor-league pitch counts (and there's not a lot of data on that comparison, obviously.) 

 

1. Berrios

2. Odorizzi

3. Trade acquisition

4. Randy Dobnak

5. Opener ft. Brusdar Graterol

 

After 40 games, Pineda slots into that three spot, maybe Graterol is ready to be the full-time #5 guy and bumps Dobnak, maybe he gets sent down for more work in Rochester and Dobnak is the number five. 

[Squirrel]

Why not pair him with Smeltzer? Soft tossing lefty followed by a hard tossing right or vs vice versa. 2 times through the lineup / 2-3 innings each - or maybe more if they are cruising.

Welcome to TD!

[highlander]

I think I'm in the minority. I would groom Brusdar to be the closer.

1) Bullpen work will limit his innings.

2) Injury history does not bode well for a long career as a starter.

3) Bullpen work allows Brusdar to impact more games.

4) A strong bullpen can cover a shorter rotation.

[sdangus]

Don't forget, even with a 26th man, teams can only carry 26 pitchers. And it is going to be more difficult to rotate players back and forth to Rochester because of a change in rules for how long a player has to stay down before they can return.

[sdangus]

Sorry, I misspoke. I meant to say teams can only carry 13 pitchers.

 

[Twodogs]

Well I think, there might be a difference in innings. I think that the innings Grateral would throw in the Majors would maybe be a little more high stress innings. Whereas the innings in AAA or AA might be a little less stress innings. It would probably take Grateral less pitches to throw 5 innings in AA than it would in the Majors. So I would think the Twins would want to limit the stress on a 21 year old. Maybe they give him the first 5 or 6 starts that Pineda will miss, provided that he performs well in Spring Training. Then after Pineda comes back send him down so as to let him dominate and relieve a little stress going the rest of the way? Maybe he pitches 140 - 150 innings but I think he won't have to work so hard to get through the innings in the minors. Maybe just go with Grateral if he looks tough coming out of Spring, ride him and send him down before he gets wore out? 5 - 6 starts, 30 - 35 innings.

[joefish]

Run him out there. Start now. We can be patient with his progress. Keep him up for as long as we see what we need. How long did it take Duffy? May? Maybe 2 years to develop them if the stuff is there.

[Twodogs]

Run him out there. Start now. We can be patient with his progress. Keep him up for as long as we see what we need. How long did it take Duffy? May? Maybe 2 years to develop them if the stuff is there.

For that matter Berrios also. I mean he struggled his first time up too. Has pretty much gotten better each year since. Start the process, but limit him to just Pineda being gone and then send him down for the majority of the summer?? I mean look at most starting pitchers don't do well their first times up, Frank Viola comes to mind also.

[Jham]

6 man rotation. Keep everyone fresh. Rotate the final rotation spot with Rochester.

 

Littell is a giant regression candidate. His xFIP was about double his era.

[D.C Twins]

The answer to this really depends on the FO opinion about the potential for his change up....if they are confident in the development, they should probably keep him in AAA to begin the season because he should not try to develop a pitch while in the MLB.

 

If they think his change up is unlikely to develop, keep him in the MLB in the bullpen out of the gates. (he can still work on the change up in bullpen sessions with MLB coach oversight and transition to starter when and if it does.

[Dantes929]

Not everyone has a struggling period but some certainly do.   He dominated in the minors before his call up.   I'm not sure he has anything more to prove there.   I hate this talk of innings limits.   This article kind of says it all and you really don't have to read past the headlines.      It has never made any sense to me that you work up a guy to the point where he can throw 100 pitches and then have him do it for 20 starts at 6 innings a piece and then shut him down for 6 months before he does it again and this time he can go 24 starts.   I'm ok with the theory if there was any proof at all that it works but there isn't.   I have no evidence but it sure seems like there are as many or more guys that get hurt in ST or the first month of the season as there are in innings 180-220.   How about just a little common sense.    1.  Build up to 100 pitches a little more gradually.  2.  Have pitchers active between innings like Gibson rather than sitting there motionless for 10-15 minutes.  3.  Stop obsessing about 100 mph and above.   Verlander averaged 94-95.  Cole 96-97 and Graterol 99.    Common sense says dialing in 95-97 is more sustainable and safer than 99-101.  4.   Forget innings limits and spend more time monitoring and stressing that the pitcher be honest about any issues before they become problems.  5.  If strain or dead arm become issues maybe skip a start and continue to monitor.   

[Brandon Brooks]

 

6 man rotation. Keep everyone fresh. Rotate the final rotation spot with Rochester.

Littell is a giant regression candidate. His xFIP was about double his era.

 

I get the thinking (keeping everyone fresh certainly looked like it helped the offense) but I don't agree with it on the pitching front because:

 

- We already lack proven pitching depth, and a six-man rotation means it takes longer to get our pair of All-Star starters back on the mound

 

and

 

- One of those starters (Berrios) was noticeably better on four days' rest than five last year:

 

3.29 ERA, 1.020 WHIP, 6.33 K/BB ratio on four days' rest (65.2 innings)

VS

4.21 ERA, 1.442 WHIP, 2.91 K/BB ratio on five (102.2 innings)

[LewFordLives]

Good article. Of all the options, I definitely think "starter" is the least likely to happen this year. His injury history and experience are working against him. An opener strategy is definitely something to consider, although in the case of Grateral, I think his situation may be determined by the final numbers game that goes with setting the final roster and who is out of options. With Romo and Clippard the bullpen is getting crowded.

[rdehring]

Many of you have suggested he remain in AAA to start the season to work on his changeup.  There could be another reason to have him open in the minors, but not AAA.  With his history of injuries, it may make sense to have him begin the first three or four weeks of the season in AA where weather won't be a factor.

[2wins87]

Obviously depends on what the development staff thinks, but if there's any chance that he'll be better than Dobnak or Thorpe as a starter to begin the season, then they have to try that out.  We already know Pineda will be out and the back of the rotation is still very unsettled.

 

There is no reason to hold back at the beginning of the season because of an innings limit.  If he is good enough to get the innings he could be a very good part of the bullpen after Pineda comes back and potentially be an injury replacement later in the season.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Run him out there. Start now. We can be patient with his progress. Keep him up for as long as we see what we need. How long did it take Duffy? May? Maybe 2 years to develop them if the stuff is there.

 

The thing is though, the "stuff" isn't there yet completely. The fastball is fantastic. His slider wasn't great, it plays well only because his fastball is so good. His changeup was non-existant. He is a ways away from being dominating as a starting pitcher. I don't know why people couldn't see that by watching him last season. 

He needs to be able to throw that slider much more often and be able to throw that changeup for a strike at least once every 2 batters or so to be an effective starter. 

 

If not, you put him in the pen, tell him to throw as hard as he can and have him continue to work on the slider and ditch the changeup or anything else. If he can perfect that slider, have a little more command, he will be the best reliever in all of baseball. 

[Litdus]

I wouldnt waste bulletts in AAA, piggyback him with Thorpe or meltzer is my preferred avenue

[TopGunn#22]

Good counterpoints IndianaTwin.  After reading your insights I've "moderated" my views.     

[TopGunn#22]

I also agree with Dantes929.  I think 100 pitch limits are stupid.  100 is a nice round number, so hey, let's limit a SP to 100 pitches because...yeah, whatever.  The same with innings limits.  Everything Dantes929 laid out I agree with.  These are arbitrary numbers more decided upon by "feelings" than anything researched and/or provable.  Just listen to Jim Kaat or Bert Blyleven or Jack Morris opine about this.  Hard to disagree with their logic.  

[HawksNest]

Maybe this has already been mentioned, but my concern with Graterol is that he doesn’t miss a ton of bats.  I mean, you see the big 102 mph fastball with tons of movement, a wipeout slider, and apparently a decent change up (didn’t see it out of the bullpen) and you’d expect huge strikeout numbers.  Reality though is that his electric stuff hasn't really translated to big strikeout numbers even in the low minors. 
 

looks like about 1 strikeout per inning pitched in his minors career.

 

just a thought

[JohnSQuast]

Here's my idea - make him the 5th starter out of Spring Training (assuming he earns it).

 

There are 4 off-days in April plus the inevitable weather cancellations. If those become his turns in the rotation he gets skipped at least twice and can be used as a fireman in between starts. So March/April he gets 3 starts (15 innings) and say 4-6 relief appearances (6 innings) = 21 innings.

 

There's only one off day in May but Pineda comes back mid month. Slide Graterol to 6th starter or otherwise work him in tandem with the remaining 5th starter so he gets a similar 3 starts and 4-6 relief appearances. 20 innings a month is 120 for the season with gas in the tank for October.

 

[jkcarew]

I'd want to consider having Graterol start (or 'primary') until Pineda is up to speed. Then...somehow...figure out how Graterol could also be healthy/available for a bullpen and spot starting role down the stretch and into the post-season.

 

Undoubtedly, that plan would include severely restricting his innings through the middle months of the season....or even more likely, shutting him down in that time-frame. But then again, Graterol has been shut down at some point during every single season of his professional career.

 

The best choice for ensuring that he's available for the entire season and post-season is the bullpen. For that reason, I'd be ok with that being the going-in plan for 2020.

 

But, these options kinda make me think that the Twins could use another quality starter. 

[LFRGary]

I'm tired of the Twins treating pitchers like they're fragile pieces of porcelain. Isn't it time to teach the pitchers how to be workhorses like Blyleven & Morris?

 

Also, I'm totally willing to trade either Kiriloff or Lewis for Thor. We have a wild card rotation, nothing better.

[Rosterman]

Starter or Releif Ace. Make the choice and keep on it...we don't ant another Fernando Romero situation.

 

The Twins do NEED another to-flight starter. Better than Kyle Gobson 2018, period.

 

They can patchwork a 5th starter, or hopefully Dobnak or Thorpe will step up and grab the spot.

 

I can also live with people getting innings during the beginning of the year, especially when you don't need a fith starter arm...and taking looks at people like Smeltzer, or perhaps Graterol.

 

But using Graterol as a long man means you are basically adding a 3-4 inning bullpen arm being used minimal. Better to have ONE guy share his SPOT WITH ANOTHER, or an arm that could pitch three out of five days if needed.

 

Of course, the need to now face three batters within an inning will change bullpen makeup and management...shaken out during the season, I imagine. Still don't see it being as big of a deal. You can still bring in a guy to close an inning and not use him the next inning. But you will have to carefully judge warmups and batters faced, esecpailly with an extra offense bat on each roster, too.

 

 

[Nine of twelve]

 

Unpopular opinion: his trade value will probably never be greater than it is right now.

Could be. But I noticed you stopped short of saying you think he should be traded.

[Det95Twins]

I think Graterol should be in the rotation, maybe getting stretched out early in the season and going for 6-7 innings later in the season.  The Twins have plenty of #5 starters between the roster and Rochester.  I was hoping they'd get an innings eater like Keuchel but now I'm hoping for a trade because 39 games without Pineda and Pineda then rounding into shape means half a year of Pineda before he's solid and Smeltzer, Littell, Thorpe and Company are going to get bashed if they go longer than a couple of innings too often and will be scary if they have to fill two full slots in the starting rotation.

[In My La Z boy]

I just hope we take the very best 13 pitchers north this year and that Brusdar is one of them. Without a big trade ( still hoping for it) it looks like our best shot with this staff, is to duplicate the 2015 Royals and have the very best shut down bullpen in the league. 

[MMMordabito]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/quick-hits-dombrowski-twins-moore-26th-player.html

 

The Twins have “kicked the tires on the top remaining starters,” as per SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter links), and also looked at several other pitchers who have since signed with other clubs, though “never really pursued any aggressively.”  Minnesota entered the offseason with a severe need for starting pitching, and while the club has brought back Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, at least one rotation spot must still be addressed.  With so many top arms already off the board, Wolfson feels the Twins might need to swing a trade in order to add any further pitching upgrades.  In another tweet, Wolfson notes that the Twins didn’t have any interest in left-hander Matt Moore, who is off to Japan after signing with the SoftBank Hawks earlier today.

 

That blurb makes it sound like the likely plan for Graterol and Thorpe/Smeltzer/Dobnak is to get some major work in the rotation, unless a trade can be pulled off.  I suppose Jhoan Duran is also a wild card as well.  He's on the 40 now, so opportunity is only a phone call and a flight away.

[Squirrel]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/quick-hits-dombrowski-twins-moore-26th-player.html

 

The Twins have “kicked the tires on the top remaining starters,” as per SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson (Twitter links), and also looked at several other pitchers who have since signed with other clubs, though “never really pursued any aggressively.”  Minnesota entered the offseason with a severe need for starting pitching, and while the club has brought back Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda, at least one rotation spot must still be addressed.  With so many top arms already off the board, Wolfson feels the Twins might need to swing a trade in order to add any further pitching upgrades.  In another tweet, Wolfson notes that the Twins didn’t have any interest in left-hander Matt Moore, who is off to Japan after signing with the SoftBank Hawks earlier today.

 

That blurb makes it sound like the likely plan for Graterol and Thorpe/Smeltzer/Dobnak is to get some major work in the rotation, unless a trade can be pulled off.  I suppose Jhoan Duran is also a wild card as well.  He's on the 40 now, so opportunity is only a phone call and a flight away.

If the plan is for Graterol, how would that look for you? As a starter, primary or relief pitcher? Does he open here or get more time in Rochester? Do you think a pitch limit should be on this year?

 

Just a reminder that this thread is to discuss what role you think Graterol should/will have this season and not a general session on who the Twins didn’t get and why. There are other threads for that, so let’s keep at least one thread on track and not devolve as others have. Thanks.