Front Page: Revisiting Falvey and Levine Era Trades: Break in Case of World Series

[jorgenswest]

They traded Escobar for prospects and replaced him with Marwin.

[Nate Palmer]

 

Well, so far the Twins received a pitcher with a total of 2 MLB wins, 2 losses, and a 3.86 ERA for Dozier.

 

Dozier hasn't done much since leaving, and probably won't, but unless we trade Raley for MLB talent, and Smeltzer turns into a reliable MLB starter, you can't really say it's a huge victory or anything.

I was actually looking at this trade in particular since Smeltzer has the most MLB experience of any of the guys so far. For a couple of months the Dodgers got Dozier who contributed a nice round 0.0 bWAR to be added to his 1.0 bWAR for the season. The Twins last season got 0.7 bWAR worth of production out of Smeltzer and he is still able to contribute to the team. Not sure if that is a huge victory, but that is a pretty smart move in my opinion. 

[Shaitan]

 

Well, so far the Twins received a pitcher with a total of 2 MLB wins, 2 losses, and a 3.86 ERA for Dozier.

 

Dozier hasn't done much since leaving, and probably won't, but unless we trade Raley for MLB talent, and Smeltzer turns into a reliable MLB starter, you can't really say it's a huge victory or anything.

 

Sure. But why do you need to say that at all? The point of a trade is to be mutually beneficial to both teams.

[G Lee]

The Pressly and Escobar trades did not make sense at the time, and they still hurt. Of all of the names on the list, Pressly, Escobar and Lynn would be major improvements to this roster, if we could have kept them. Escobar's asking price was very reasonable. Pressly could have been extended as he was in Houston. Can't really blame anyone on Lynn, though it would have been nice if we had been smart enough to predict how good he'd be in 2019. I don't think any of the rest of the players on this list, on either side of the trade, would have made much of a difference in 2019. And I'm skeptical about whether any of them will contribute much in 2020 or beyond. So, overall, I'd say we were the losers in this group of trades when taken as a whole, primarily because we didn't keep Escobar and Pressly..

 

You realize that Escobar was a free agent once the season ended? So he could have left and signed with Arizona, with us getting absolutely nothing? No way he gets a qualifying offer.

[Sjoski]

Escobar was moved to make room for Sano at 3rd... plus I believed the Twins thought Mauer would anchor 1st for at least two more years. Too bad we don't have Sano at first and Esco at 3rd in 2020.

[old nurse]

Ryan Pressly  was pitching to a FIP of 3 before he was traded. That is the pitcher he was here. That pitcher would also have been a free agent after last season.  He might have helped win a playoff game.  He might not have. He was also due to be a free agent at the end of last season. If you are going to be optimistic that he would have developed here as he did in Houston and sign an extension then you have to allow for the optimism that Alcal will develop control and have a one two punch of a 97 fastball and a good slider thus being an effective set up man Celestion can be a competent CF with a .300 BA and doubles type power.  The optimist outlook that you have kept Pressly is you now have co closers in Rogers and Pressly, you still get swept by the Yankees. Trade, you get 6 years of a set up pitcher and a replacement for Buxton when once again the head is softer than the wall.  Pessimist, you  still did not win a playoff game and you now have nothing.

[Don Walcott]

 

You realize that Escobar was a free agent once the season ended? So he could have left and signed with Arizona, with us getting absolutely nothing? No way he gets a qualifying offer.

Welcome to the site!

 

Yes. If you read my posts (several of them above), I addressed this issue several times. Not sure why anyone would think he would have chosen to sign with Arizona after the season if he had a sufficient offer with MN -- 3 years $21 million. The only reason he got to know the DBacks was because we traded him there. And I still believe it is most likely (though as has been said a lot above, nobody really knows) that the Twins did not offer him 3 years and $21 million. And, again, if that was the case, it was a huge mistake.

 

Ultimately, not signing Escobar to something around 3 years and $21 million, and instead trading him for prospects, has been and continues to be a mistake, in my opinion. The Twins would have been better in 2019 and would be better in 2020 (and probably 2021) with Escobar and Pressly than they are with all of the prospects for whom they traded in 2018.

[Don Walcott]

 

 

Ryan Pressly  was pitching to a FIP of 3 before he was traded. That is the pitcher he was here. That pitcher would also have been a free agent after last season.  He might have helped win a playoff game.  He might not have. He was also due to be a free agent at the end of last season. If you are going to be optimistic that he would have developed here as he did in Houston and sign an extension then you have to allow for the optimism that Alcal will develop control and have a one two punch of a 97 fastball and a good slider thus being an effective set up man Celestion can be a competent CF with a .300 BA and doubles type power.  The optimist outlook that you have kept Pressly is you now have co closers in Rogers and Pressly, you still get swept by the Yankees. Trade, you get 6 years of a set up pitcher and a replacement for Buxton when once again the head is softer than the wall.  Pessimist, you  still did not win a playoff game and you now have nothing.

First, I don't think anyone said that if we had Pressly, we'd have beaten the Yankees. And frankly, that has no relevance to the question of whether it was a good trade.

 

I also don't think it has anything to do with being an optimist or a pessimist. Being a realist, Pressly has been better than anyone we received in trade for him, and he would have significantly helped the 2019 Twins. Maybe, at some point, that will change. But until it does, it was a bad trade because we could have had Pressly instead of a few very good minor league players who have no impact on the major league club (so far).

 

I hope you are right about Alcala. If he develops into a good reliever, that will make the trade a lot less painful than it is right now.

 

Finally, I don't believe that Pressly would be worse as a Twin under the tutelage of their pitching coaches and coaching staff. If that's true, we have much bigger problems than making a few bad trades.

[old nurse]

 

First, I don't think anyone said that if we had Pressly, we'd have beaten the Yankees. And frankly, that has no relevance to the question of whether it was a good trade.

 

I also don't think it has anything to do with being an optimist or a pessimist. Being a realist, Pressly has been better than anyone we received in trade for him, and he would have significantly helped the 2019 Twins. Maybe, at some point, that will change. But until it does, it was a bad trade because we could have had Pressly instead of a few very good minor league players who have no impact on the major league club (so far).

 

I hope you are right about Alcala. If he develops into a good reliever, that will make the trade a lot less painful than it is right now.

 

Finally, I don't believe that Pressly would be worse as a Twin under the tutelage of their pitching coaches and coaching staff. If that's true, we have much bigger problems than making a few bad trades.

I did not claim that anyone had said that the Twins would have beaten the Yankees with Pressly, only that it did not matter if he was here or not in that series. Realism is that Pressly became better when he went to Houston.  He would not have gotten worse under the coaching from Johmson, but there realy isn't any compelling reason to believe he would have gotten better. Pressly's was quoted as saying Houston wasn't saying anything different to him than the Twins were. His pitch mix changed. He bought into what was being said to him there, not here. he significance to the Twins for the 2019 season is what? They won 101 games without him and got swept in the series with the Yankees. Your own statement would be an indication that he would not have changed the outcome of that series.  Realism is that there was no indication that he would have wanted to stay here. The tattoo on his back would be a great indication of where he wanted to be.

[Don Walcott]

 

I did not claim that anyone had said that the Twins would have beaten the Yankees with Pressly, only that it did not matter if he was here or not in that series. Realism is that Pressly became better when he went to Houston.  He would not have gotten worse under the coaching from Johmson, but there realy isn't any compelling reason to believe he would have gotten better. Pressly's was quoted as saying Houston wasn't saying anything different to him than the Twins were. His pitch mix changed. He bought into what was being said to him there, not here. he significance to the Twins for the 2019 season is what? They won 101 games without him and got swept in the series with the Yankees. Your own statement would be an indication that he would not have changed the outcome of that series.  Realism is that there was no indication that he would have wanted to stay here. The tattoo on his back would be a great indication of where he wanted to be.

I hear what you're saying. We just disagree.

 

You believe Pressly would not have gotten any better as a Twin. I think Pressly would be as good as he is now, and he would have been willing to extend his contract as he did in Houston. As such, he would have been either our best or our second best reliever. We wouldn't have had to go after Dyson. We likely would have won more games. We could have had home field advantage in the playoffs. We'd have him going into 2020 and 2021. Who knows who is right as it is all speculation.

 

The fallback position for both Escobar and Pressly being good trades seems to have become "they wouldn't have wanted to continue playing for the Twins anyway." Now that's truly a pessimistic view. But it seems to be prevalent on TD among those who believe the FO couldn't do any better than they are already doing (because nobody wants to play in MN). I just don't believe that's true. Nelson Cruz seems to like MN. Pineda signed on for two more years. Odo stayed. Romo re-signed. We have extensions for Kepler and Polanco. It's not like nobody wants to play for the Twins. And I hope we try to get extensions for Buxton, Sano and Berrios sooner than later.

[jorgenswest]

It isn’t about “wouldn’t have wanted to” it is simply about control.

 

I would absolutely get the best I can for Escobar in a lost season and no more control. Good move.

 

I would not have traded Pressly and his additional year of control knowing that I was going to have to replace him for 2019. Really bad move.

[Battle ur tail off]

Trading guys with expiring deals is always good business if you are not contending and don't intend to sign them back. 

 

That said, having Escobar surely would be nice right about now. I am not sure why there wasn't a larger push to get him extended, but it is what it is. He got 3/21 from them and likely was offered 2/12(something less for sure) from us. It was a case of a player and agent knowing what they are worth and rejecting another cheap Twins offers. In the trade they brought back 3 guys, one with a chance. That's a good return for an expiring deal.  

 

Once that happened, it made all the sense in the world to move him. Moving Dozier for anything you could get was a great move.

 

Trading Pressly wasn't all that smart. It's been 2 seasons and we haven't seen any return from that one yet. If the guys we got for him were so good, we would see them by now. The pitcher is 24 and is still in AA/AAA, I'd call him a fringy guy at best. There is a reason he hasn't been flipped yet, he isn't worth anything. 

 

The centerfielder we got is another dime a dozen player. He gets on base but has no power. Profiling as a 4th or 5th outfielder his worth is also little to nothing, or course he is young so who knows. This trade was a big L. 

 

 

[ken]

Trading guys with expiring deals is always good business if you are not contending and don't intend to sign them back.

 

That said, having Escobar surely would be nice right about now. I am not sure why there wasn't a larger push to get him extended, but it is what it is. He got 3/21 from them and likely was offered 2/12(something less for sure) from us. It was a case of a player and agent knowing what they are worth and rejecting another cheap Twins offers. In the trade they brought back 3 guys, one with a chance. That's a good return for an expiring deal.

 

Once that happened, it made all the sense in the world to move him. Moving Dozier for anything you could get was a great move.

 

Trading Pressly wasn't all that smart. It's been 2 seasons and we haven't seen any return from that one yet. If the guys we got for him were so good, we would see them by now. The pitcher is 24 and is still in AA/AAA, I'd call him a fringy guy at best. There is a reason he hasn't been flipped yet, he isn't worth anything.

 

The centerfielder we got is another dime a dozen player. He gets on base but has no power. Profiling as a 4th or 5th outfielder his worth is also little to nothing, or course he is young so who knows. This trade was a big L.

I agree with your assessment of the Escobar trade. But it also describes the reason it was a bad trade. They underestimated his value. They lowballed an offer and ended up trading a valuable player that would have helped them the next year.

 

Maybe they didn't believe the team could contend the next year so they were in rebuild mode. But just like the first year at the trade deadline, they misjudged the team.

[Mr. Brooks]

 

 

Trading Pressly wasn't all that smart. It's been 2 seasons and we haven't seen any return from that one yet. If the guys we got for him were so good, we would see them by now. The pitcher is 24 and is still in AA/AAA, I'd call him a fringy guy at best. There is a reason he hasn't been flipped yet, he isn't worth anything.

 

The centerfielder we got is another dime a dozen player. He gets on base but has no power. Profiling as a 4th or 5th outfielder his worth is also little to nothing, or course he is young so who knows. This trade was a big L.

Not to nitpick too much, but Alcala made his Twins debut last season.