Front Page: Ryu To Sign with Toronto. Now What?

[ewen21]

Call me crazy, but last season was a bigger failure to me than this offseason (which isn’t even done yet). They managed to put together a team that won 101 games and went on to, most unforgivably, get swept yet again in first round. I am still much more bothered by that than I am the FO passing on this year’s crop of overpriced and overrated free agent pitching.

 

Do we need pitching? Yes, we most certainly do; but then did we have a legitimate shot at signing any of these guys without going way over market value (whatever that is anymore)?

No.

 

These guys are hired to use analytics to field a cost effective roster. Going insane and giving a guy like Zach Wheeler more than 25 million a year for five or six years the answer? While it would placate much of the audience here I don’t think it would have come close to solving the core issue we have here.

 

The culture in this organization is the problem. We lose in 3-and-out fashion and our manager tries to say he “isn’t frustrated at all”. A lot of people wanted to say last years team had nothing to do with all the postseason failures of the past.

Well guess what? Last years team turns out to be just like the other teams with regard to postseason performance and quite frankly this off season is reminding me of 2010 to 2011 all over again.

 

Am I disappointed? You bet I am, but I think the players deserve as much criticism as this front office. Maybe more.

The FO assembled a cost effective team that did not show up in the post season. They don’t play the games, the players do.

 

I’m giving them until spring training. It’s way too early to flip out. I’m also wondering where all the anger was after we lost in pathetic fashion again? Seems to be a lot more outrage now and I don’t get that

[adorduan]

 

I continue to remind your faithful readers of this fact. Cleveland started 3 pitchers last summer from the 2016 draft and they all were good to great. That is the direction Falvine are going. To paraphrase Mick Mulvaney," Live with it."

well, except they haven't used any 1st round picks on pitching.

[Danchat]

 

Yeah get Hill, he has been unbelievable when he is healthy. Prob just need to sit him out until late July and then get like 15 starts out of him to finish the season. Hill when healthy might be better than Berrios. Problem is that he can't stay healthy.

Well, speaking of Hill, this just came out:

 

Rich Hill was arrested Saturday for his part in an alleged incident outside of Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts.
Hill's wife, Caitlin A. Hill, was arrested after she repeatedly tried to enter the stadium with an oversized bag and refused to leave the premises after being told by Foxboro police. Rich Hill then intervened as police were putting her into a prisoner transport vehicle. The Hills were arraigned on Monday, but the charges were flipped from criminal to civil infractions, resulting in some small fines. Hill, who turns 40 in March, is currently a free agent. He's expected to miss the start of the 2020 season after undergoing "primary and revision surgery" on his left elbow in October.

 

 

Yeah, I'll pass, he's not even going to be healthy to start the year...

[chpettit19]

 

well, except they haven't used any 1st round picks on pitching.

Indians 2016 draft picks to reach majors as solid or better starting pitchers:

Civale- pick #92

Bieber- pick #122

Plesac- pick #362

Those are 3rd, 4th, and 12th round picks. Don't need to use 1st round picks on pitching necessarily. Not saying they shouldn't, just that the Indians aren't just loading up on 1st round pitching.

[travkro]

 

Who's Alex Sanchez?

 

I'd be interested in a few of those guys -- but as lotto tickets rather than our top offseason SP addition!

 

My mistake its Aaron Sanchez pitched for the Mariners this past year. Throws hard but control is an issue. Maybe Wes Johnson can help him. Had a great year with Toronto in 14' or 15'. 

 

Yeah they are not anyone you can pencil in for a rotation spot but something to look at.

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

I would agree with trading for Ray for less than our non top 5 prospects. As for Ray, if we traded for him now we could extend a QO to him after the season if he wasn't extended thereby having him for 2 seasons. If however he was not acquired until after the season started is he then ineligible for a QO? I seem to remember that being the case. But I have heard AZ wanting to see how their season goes before considering a trade.

[chpettit19]

 

I would agree with trading for Ray for less than our non top 5 prospects. As for Ray, if we traded for him now we could extend a QO to him after the season if he wasn't extended thereby having him for 2 seasons. If however he was not acquired until after the season started is he then ineligible for a QO? I seem to remember that being the case. But I have heard AZ wanting to see how their season goes before considering a trade.

Correct. Have to be on your team for the entire season to qualify. So in season acquisitions can't be offered QO.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Correct. Have to be on your team for the entire season to qualify. So in season acquisitions can't be offered QO.

Thanks. Then if he is someone we actually want to pursue we should get it done then. I'd welcome Ray, but for the price mentioned. I'm not interested if the price is Larnach, Balozovic, etc. I'd have Duran as a no trade for Ray as well.

[launchingthrees]

 

In fact both of them said as much publicly. Its been nationally reported that AZ didn't even call MadBum, but he actually went to them and said "if you can get close to what I want I'll come here" and they adjusted their plans.

 

Bumgarner was taking offers from multiple teams, had interest in multiple teams. The reporting said he "left money on the table" That doesn't mean he couldn't be had.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/madison-bumgarner-diamondbacks-agree-to-five-year-85-million-contract-reports-say/

[dgwills]

I really wanted the Twins to sign Ryu, but free agency has been crazy this year. 4 years 80 million from Toronto? Didn't they just trade Marcus Stroman at the deadline? By the time they're in contention that contract will be an albatross. It would of been worth a bad contract to get Cole or Strasburg (who weren't coming here anyways), but not Ryu or Madbum. Sometimes it's just better to do nothing.

Alex Wood is still a good pick up. He always had good stuff when healthy and we need a lefty. If it doesn't work out the contract will not hurt us.  Outside of that the Twin's will just need to develop pitching. Haven't seen it from them yet, but it's been the stated focus of the franchise since Terry Ryan was fired.

[sweetmusicviola16]

The guys I would like to see the Twins get: Sign Walker- 2/13 Trade for both Ray and Steven Matz. No such thing as too much pitching. If at any point you have a glut there should be a buyer.

 

No to Price, Boyd. Clevinger isn't realistic imo. Gray I'd be for also.

[magiklair]

I am prepared to be disappointed.. It's always the same old story, the Twins were in on the deal but just missed out. I thought we had some cap room, but I guess we are on the Pohlad's payroll so this is nothing new.

[Mike Sixel]

Free agency has not been crazy. It has been the same at the last few years. The difference is that there are more good players this year. But the money is in line with the last few years.

[MMMordabito]

I’m giving them until spring training. It’s way too early to flip out.

Probably the most reasonable pair of sentences that I have read on TD today.

[ewen21]

Why would Odo sign here? We are told FAs don't want to come here....why would he want to stay?

You’d have to ask him. He actually signed to pitch here, but then he isn’t a what you’d call a “big time” free agent.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Free agency has not been crazy. It has been the same at the last few years. The difference is that there are more good players this year. But the money is in line with the last few years.

It is faster moving this season. But on the trade front, very little.

[ewen21]

Probably the most reasonable pair of sentences that I have read on TD today.

Thank you because I feel like an alien right now. The consternation over the lack of free agent signings seems to be bigger than when we got swept in the first round. I’m not sure how this is a bigger deal than that but it is and it really shouldn’t be

[IndianaTwin]

 

Was Martín Pérez an "impact pitcher" acquisition last offseason by this definition? (Cue the "negative impact" jokes.) He had a -0.9 bWAR in 2018 (-0.1 fWAR) but the two years before that he was 1.8 and 2.3 bWAR (or 2.2 and 2.3 fWAR). He was younger too. I'll grant Odorizzi was better, but they seem to be in a similar class by the parameters you've introduced here.

 

Odorizzi might show the upside of aiming in that class, but Pérez seems to show the downside (and also serves a reminder that this coaching staff might be very good, but we can't expect them to be perfect at turning guys around either).

 

I hope the Twins were (and still are) aiming higher than two SP additions from that class this winter, coming off a division title, lots of payroll space, and lots of prospect capital. Seems almost recklessly conservative to not aim higher than that.

 

I think Perez was an okay option coming off a 78-win season. Like you, I'd like to shoot higher coming off a 101-win season. 

 

That said, through his first eight starts last year, a lot of us were thinking we may have struck lightning in a bottle with Perez. Then came June, and we kept running him out there to the point of ending up with 29 starts. So while I'd like to shoot higher this year, the bigger key may be in having a shorter leash. Last year, when Perez started to stink up the place, we didn't have other options. This year, I'd like to think that starters 6-8 are much further along than they were last year. 

[shimrod]

"The consternation over the lack of free agent signings seems to be bigger than when we got swept in the first round."

 

Maybe because it looks like we plan to run out the same team that got swept, minus several occasional contributors and a whole lot of salary. 

 

I'm beginning to think the front office signed on expecting to execute the complete tear down/rebuild only to be thwarted by on-field success. Every free agent they've signed has been added with the intention they'd build value and trade for prospects. That's not a bad strategy but it's hard to execute when the team insists on winning enough to keep the post-season in play. 

 

Perhaps this will be the year the FO gets to finally gut the team of veterans and acquire the minor league talent that will eventually lead the organization back to the promised land. 

[ChiefsKid]

"Offer MadBum 5, 150? Ryu 4, 120? Wheeler 6, 200? Sign Cole to 400+ mil? Strasburg for 400? They aren't shopping at the store and just taking whatever items they want while leaving the others.

 

...That leaves 1 more spot to fill in the rotation and I would like to see if they can get Price for nothing while taking on a decent chunk of his only 3 years remaining. Or go get Ray for what I think would be less than any of our top 5 prospects. Or Matz or whatever other guy they can get for a reasonable trade price. Or add a couple of the bounce back options and let them battle it out while Pineda is suspended.

 

 

"Go get Price for nothing" is absolutely comical.

 

"Go get Ray for less than any of our top 5 prospects"

 

"...or Matz or whatever other guy"

 

 

I would put a lot of chips in that getting any of those three (or a mystery "other guy") will cost significantly more prospects *and/or* significantly more payroll additions than you are insinuating. There were other teams in on the free agent bidding that also didn't come away with their guy, to think we can just "go make a trade for a guy" and get it without giving up substantial prospect capital is just wishful thinking.

 

Plain and simple, quality starting pitching is expensive. Very expensive. Either in cash, or prospects. There were 4 realistic available quality starting pitchers in the Twins market range, and because of the unwillingness to 'overpay' (which I think is such a cop-out of an excuse),the Twins didnt get any of them.

 

And now, coming off the best season in Twins recent memory in which the absolute most glaring hole on the roster was without a shadow of a doubt starting pitching, the Twins are still set to have Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, and Lewis Thorpe ALL in the starting rotation on opening day. God help us if Berrios strains a forearm in Spring Training.

 

There is still time. 3 months before this is an actual problem. I suppose the FO could pull a rabbit out of a hat and acquire rotation depth. But now, in order to get it, we're going to have to surrender prospects. It's going to cost more than just money. And from the relatively small sample size of what I've seen from this FO, they absolutely covet prospects. Consider me incredibly skeptical and disappointed in the offseason so far.

[Mr. Brooks]

"Letting all the FA options go" is where you completely lose me. That isn't how this works. What would you have done different? Offer MadBum 5, 150? Ryu 4, 120? Wheeler 6, 200? Sign Cole to 400+ mil? Strasburg for 400? They aren't shopping at the store and just taking whatever items they want while leaving the others. They didn't "let them go," they set what they felt was an acceptable deal on the table and the players chose where they wanted to go. Spending drastically more than anyone else is willing to is not a good team building strategy. Full stop.

 

And I've never argued they should go into 2020 with a 3 deep rotation. I have continually said they need to add. I am just not broken up over not overpaying for 2 guys who went to the places they wanted to be (1 of which I think is washed up) or a guy who has pitched 2 complete seasons his entire career. Falvey was one of the top developers of the Indians pitching system and I am willing to give him a shot at turning our young arms into legit starters. I want 1 spot available for them to rotate through and get experience until 1 of them takes it and runs with it. That leaves 1 more spot to fill in the rotation and I would like to see if they can get Price for nothing while taking on a decent chunk of his only 3 years remaining. Or go get Ray for what I think would be less than any of our top 5 prospects. Or Matz or whatever other guy they can get for a reasonable trade price. Or add a couple of the bounce back options and let them battle it out while Pineda is suspended.

Do you have any evidence that the Twins would have needed to outbid the Jays by 40 million in order to get Ryu?

[insagt1]

Detroit signs both Cron and Schoop. Can't say I'm too impressed with the Twins offseason activities. They have been very quiet, while other teams in the division seem to try to be improving. Wonder what they have up their sleeve.

[kdag23]

Ewen21 I'm with you in that it was a pretty pathetic display by the players in that series with the Yankees. And, let me just say that I am not convinced that the Twins did not try to hit home runs last season and I feel that part of the ineptitude was due to trying to hit the ball out. 7 runs in 3 games isn't going to win many series for sure. I can't speak for everyone, but I think if we get better pitching in that series it changes things a bit. Do we win the series against NY? Probably not. Do we win a game or more to make it an interesting series? Maybe, because good pitching usually beats good hitting. We had the offense, they just didn't perform but the pitching we didn't have and was identified as the area of need and yes, call it bad PR but based on comments from Falvine a lot of people thought they would address pitching needs and go after some big arms in the off season. Which, isn't over and there is a lot of time before spring training but seeing everyone that the Twins were supposedly targeting get signed by other clubs, CWS no less is pretty demotivating.

[ewen21]

I have a running list of the top 20 FA from prior years that includes who signed them, for how much, and how long. I always review it as teams move into the FA frenzy. In general, it appears that the yearly tally is about 80% of the contracts fall into the regrettable or forgettable category. This appears to be especially true for pitchers with long term deals.

 

Since 5 years seems to be the length many commenters want to use for spending “billionaires” money; I thought looking back at the 2015 FA class might be enlightening. Here they are in descending order of rank, with yrs/avg salary

 

Pitchers: Greinke (6/34) Price (7/31) Cueto (6/22) Kazmir (3/16) Leake (6/16) Lackey (2/16) Chen (5/16) Zimmerman (5/22) Samardzija (5/18). An interesting group not unlike this year’s, with some big names in their prime; a few injury prone but talented arms, some high ceiling potential, and a few playoff tested veterans that would be good for any staff.

 

Non-Pitchers: (Just the top 5) Heyward (8/23) J Upton (6/22) Cespedes (3/25) Gordon (4/18) Davis (7/23). In retrospect, a disaster. Definitely not what it looked like at the time. Appeared to be relatively young players in their prime.

 

2015 was not an outlier. There were worse years such as 2017 (remember the clamoring for Darvish, Arietta, and Cobb), and better (maybe 2018 but there has to be a touch of buyers remorse already with Machado and Harper).

 

Overall, a cautionary tale. They are not as good as we make them out to be.

A lot of this is about getting a shiny new gift. Thanks for the perspective

[Lasorda_This_Out]

Falvine have on many occasions used the word "sustainable" to describe what they hope to structure the Twins for success. It's pretty apparent that they view the FA market route differently from most other MLB teams..and includes not just the big market teams but those similar to the Twins. So you have to ask yourself, why?

Setting aside the perpetual "the Pohlads are cheap" explanation, some thoughts:

 

1. Being analytics guys, does their analysis go beyond the individual ballplayer to a AI finding that big contract FA signings does not produce "sustainable" success, across ALL of baseball historically? Signing a Cole or a Strasburg might contribute to an occasional World Series appearance but equally as likely to miss the Playoffs the next year? Case in point, Boston Red Sox. World Series winners in 2018...missed the Playoffs in 2019. And the Red Sox are always ready to throw open the checkbook to acquire top FA's (if nothing more that to keep them out of arch-enemy NY?).

So not "sustainable".

 

2. Does Falvine's concept of "sustainable" success extend beyond consistently winning year in and year out the Central Division only? Do they view a deep Playoff run as only icing on the cake if the team is structured to win 100 +/- 5 games most years?

 

3. Having said that, I do want to think that Falvine truly wish to add World Series titles to their resumes but also for Twins fans. But a WS title followed by years of missing the playoffs because of a series of poor/un-lucky FA signings guides their "process"

 

4. And finally this. Is it possible that Falvine et. al are analytically light years ahead of the other MLB teams in 2020? Do they see a path to that "sustainable" success and deep Playoff runs with multiple WS victories bypassing big FA signings? I didn't see a 101 win season coming last March...who did? But what do I know about running a MLB team..?  ;-)

 

Thank you...

[adorduan]

 

Falvine have on many occasions used the word "sustainable" to describe what they hope to structure the Twins for success. It's pretty apparent that they view the FA market route differently from most other MLB teams..and includes not just the big market teams but those similar to the Twins. So you have to ask yourself, why?

Setting aside the perpetual "the Pohlads are cheap" explanation, some thoughts:

 

1. Being analytics guys, does their analysis go beyond the individual ballplayer to a AI finding that big contract FA signings does not produce "sustainable" success, across ALL of baseball historically? Signing a Cole or a Strasburg might contribute to an occasional World Series appearance but equally as likely to miss the Playoffs the next year? Case in point, Boston Red Sox. World Series winners in 2018...missed the Playoffs in 2019. And the Red Sox are always ready to throw open the checkbook to acquire top FA's (if nothing more that to keep them out of arch-enemy NY?).

So not "sustainable".

 

2. Does Falvine's concept of "sustainable" success extend beyond consistently winning year in and year out the Central Division only? Do they view a deep Playoff run as only icing on the cake if the team is structured to win 100 +/- 5 games most years?

 

3. Having said that, I do want to think that Falvine truly wish to add World Series titles to their resumes but also for Twins fans. But a WS title followed by years of missing the playoffs because of a series of poor/un-lucky FA signings guides their "process"

 

4. And finally this. Is it possible that Falvine et. al are analytically light years ahead of the other MLB teams in 2020? Do they see a path to that "sustainable" success and deep Playoff runs with multiple WS victories bypassing big FA signings? I didn't see a 101 win season coming last March...who did? But what do I know about running a MLB team..?  ;-)

 

Thank you...

So we go from being way behind to passing all the other teams, including ones with way deeper pockets than the Twins, in 3 years?? uh, no........

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Then you are smarter than every GM is baseball. Ordorizi was out there for anyone and everyone to bid on before he accepted our QO. They have 10 days once it is extended. Funny there wasn't anyone out there willing to make him a better offer than that if he is better than those guys?????

nope, he wasn’t available for everyone before he accepted the QO.

 

Free agents don’t open up to the other teams until after the QO is rejected.

 

Edit: I’ve been corrected twice below in the thread. I admit being wrong.

[notoriousgod71]

 

Falvine have on many occasions used the word "sustainable" to describe what they hope to structure the Twins for success. It's pretty apparent that they view the FA market route differently from most other MLB teams..and includes not just the big market teams but those similar to the Twins. So you have to ask yourself, why?

Setting aside the perpetual "the Pohlads are cheap" explanation, some thoughts:

 

1. Being analytics guys, does their analysis go beyond the individual ballplayer to a AI finding that big contract FA signings does not produce "sustainable" success, across ALL of baseball historically? Signing a Cole or a Strasburg might contribute to an occasional World Series appearance but equally as likely to miss the Playoffs the next year? Case in point, Boston Red Sox. World Series winners in 2018...missed the Playoffs in 2019. And the Red Sox are always ready to throw open the checkbook to acquire top FA's (if nothing more that to keep them out of arch-enemy NY?).

So not "sustainable".

 

2. Does Falvine's concept of "sustainable" success extend beyond consistently winning year in and year out the Central Division only? Do they view a deep Playoff run as only icing on the cake if the team is structured to win 100 +/- 5 games most years?

 

3. Having said that, I do want to think that Falvine truly wish to add World Series titles to their resumes but also for Twins fans. But a WS title followed by years of missing the playoffs because of a series of poor/un-lucky FA signings guides their "process"

 

4. And finally this. Is it possible that Falvine et. al are analytically light years ahead of the other MLB teams in 2020? Do they see a path to that "sustainable" success and deep Playoff runs with multiple WS victories bypassing big FA signings? I didn't see a 101 win season coming last March...who did? But what do I know about running a MLB team..?  ;-)

 

Thank you...

Nothing about this pitching staff is credible to any sustainable success.

 

 

[chpettit19]

 

"Go get Price for nothing" is absolutely comical. "Go get Ray for less than any of our top 5 prospects" "...or Matz or whatever other guy" I would put a lot of chips in that getting any of those three (or a mystery "other guy") will cost significantly more prospects *and/or* significantly more payroll additions than you are insinuating. There were other teams in on the free agent bidding that also didn't come away with their guy, to think we can just "go make a trade for a guy" and get it without giving up substantial prospect capital is just wishful thinking. Plain and simple, quality starting pitching is expensive. Very expensive. Either in cash, or prospects. There were 4 realistic available quality starting pitchers in the Twins market range, and because of the unwillingness to 'overpay' (which I think is such a cop-out of an excuse),the Twins didnt get any of them. And now, coming off the best season in Twins recent memory in which the absolute most glaring hole on the roster was without a shadow of a doubt starting pitching, the Twins are still set to have Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer, and Lewis Thorpe ALL in the starting rotation on opening day. God help us if Berrios strains a forearm in Spring Training. There is still time. 3 months before this is an actual problem. I suppose the FO could pull a rabbit out of a hat and acquire rotation depth. But now, in order to get it, we're going to have to surrender prospects. It's going to cost more than just money. And from the relatively small sample size of what I've seen from this FO, they absolutely covet prospects. Consider me incredibly skeptical and disappointed in the offseason so far.

Yeah, I'm surprised Texas even has a farm system left after all they had to give up for Kluber. Earth shattering really. Boston is going to get under the tax threshold this year and the easiest way to do it is to get someone to take on a bunch of the Price contract. Ray is on his last year of team control and is not a top tier pitcher. Matz is the 6th guy on the Mets and not a top tier arm. Yes, there are other teams in the bidding for these guys, but they aren't going to ship out big time prospects for these guys either. 

 

Why is not wanting to overpay a cop out? When is overpaying ever a good thing anywhere in life? If you've decided something is worth X amount you don't go out and pay more than X amount to get it just so you can say you have it. That's bad business all around.

[chpettit19]

 

Do you have any evidence that the Twins would have needed to outbid the Jays by 40 million in order to get Ryu?

Do you have any evidence they didn't?

 

My point is that saying "do whatever it takes" means you're theoretically willing to go drastically above what others did just to get the deal done. And to me that makes no sense. My guess is it wasn't as much the dollars as it was the years that gave the Twins pause with Ryu. I don't think we'll see this FO hand out many deals over 3 years for guys over 30 years old. They will try to do a few, but I don't think they like locking themselves into long term deals like that.