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Front Page: Ryu To Sign with Toronto. Now What?


John Bonnes

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There's 5 rotation spots. That is all. 

Not in the playoffs. And as my post clearly stated I was referring to the nashing of teeth over how the Twins can't compete in the postseason with these arms. Most teams run 3.5 starters in the postseason depending on how many games they play in each series. The Twins have 3 guys in line with what people wanted to see signed as "impact pitching." So they have 3 impact arms and people are concerned that the 4th guy who likely makes 2 starts in the postseason is what is holding them back. 

 

They need another arm, again, as I stated in that post, but people are acting like the trio currently sitting at the top isn't good enough to be considered "impact pitching." If that is the case then the only 2 FA who were that good were Cole and Strasburg and those aren't guys the Twins will ever sign. They are looking to add another veteran and will use the 5th spot to give the young guys a shot. Much like the system the Indians use as they develop the best young rotation in baseball and which was designed by the current president of baseball operations in MN.

 

So, yes, there are 5 rotation spots on most MLB teams during the regular season. There are also many teams who use a "bullpen day" but I won't even get into that. You chose to ignore the entire premise of my post (that fans are upset because they aren't signing "impact pitching" to win in the playoffs) and their definition of "impact pitching" is the level of the 3 current starters. Not to mention 2 of those arms were free agent signings that everyone wants to discount because they pitched here last year. Grass isn't always greener...

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If the Twins do not trade for more starting pitching help this offseason, then I definitely would advise them to not make such statements again about starting pitching in the upcoming offseasons. It only serves to demoralize us and our team. If they get nothing this offseason, then they would best be very hesitant about putting out press releases about going after such and such a need in the offseason.

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Then you are smarter than every GM is baseball. Ordorizi was out there for anyone and everyone to bid on before he accepted our QO. They have 10 days once it is extended. Funny there wasn't anyone out there willing to make him a better offer than that if he is better than those guys?????

I thought you had to wait until the QO period was over.
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The Odorizzi acquisition definitely had an impact, but the term "impact" is from this offseason -- and has a very different context than the impact you are describing here.

I think if our "impact" pitching acquisition this offseason is coming off a 0.1 bWAR season in 2019, and posts a 1.5 bWAR full season mark in 2020, with only one year of control beyond that -- I don't think I would view that as favorably as Odorizzi, even if we "win" the trade and get good value in the process.

Hence my original reply, why the Odorizzi example isn't really all that applicable or reassuring in the context of this offseason's goals, even if the Odorizzi move was just fine for the time it was made.

 

I'm not sure I'll buy this one, though. My point is that most people seem to have defined "impact" as getting the big-time stud. Note the number of "giving Odo a QO (or signing Pineda) is okay if it's the second-best signing of the winter" comments.

 

My point is that when the FO makes the "impact pitching" comment at a point when all you've got is Berrios and a batch of rookies in the starting rotation and a youngish, though promising bullpen, I measure getting "impact pitching" as the cumulative of the off-season moves. That's particularly how you fill Nos. 2-5, but also how you improve the bullpen.

 

So far, I've seen additions of Odo, Pineda, Romo, and Clippard. I hope they aren't done, because I really would prefer to see two veterans added so that Dobnak/Smeltzer et al. would be fighting for the Pineda suspension starts and then to stay in the rotation.

 

So in the context of this winter, I'd feel pretty good about still getting a .1 bWAR from 2019 coming off of 3.5 and 3.1 from the two previous years, with a four-year average of 167 innings, particularly if all it cost me was a Class A SS. That guy might indeed turn in a 1.5 bWAR, but he could also turn in a 3.6, so let's split the difference and call it 2.5, or even the 2.2 Odo had averaged his last three seasons in TB. 

 

I'd feel even better if they got two of them! With a winter that nets Odo, Pineda, Romo, Clippard and two veteran starters who get 2.2-2.5 bWARs, I'd definitely consider that getting "impact pitching." 

 

 

 

 

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Ryu is an injury risk, I get it, no one is arguing that he's not, but if you get a couple of healthy years out of him you're in good shape - he's been nothing but a stud when healthy.  Sometimes you have to take risks.  MadBum has a lot of innings on his arm but his demise is greatly exaggerated.  His 2019 was weaker and the stats bear out a slow decline but you make it sound like he hasn't done anything since his age 26 season and that just isn't true.  The following are ERA+, FIP, and WHIP for five pitchers over the last three years.

 

Pitcher A

128 3.95 1.09

116 3.99 1.24

107 3.90 1.13

 

Pitcher B

102 5.43 1.24

95 4.19 1.35

131 3.36 1.21

 

Pitcher C

89 3.79 1.35

103 4.66 1.29

113 4.02 1.16

 

Pitcher D

114 3.84 1.23

111 3.90 1.14

124 3.85 1.22

 

Pitcher E*

110 4.74 1.37

198 3.00 1.01

179 3.10 1.01

 

Who would you rather have?  You're not wrong to say that Berrios belongs at the top of the rotation but if you legitimately think Odorizzi and Pineda are at least as good as MadBum and Ryu, in my opinion you're viewing life through 2019-colored glasses at the expense of the bigger picture

I hate it when people do stuff like this and never clearly tell you at the end who they are.  As such, your comment is meaningless.  And we also don't know which year is which.  Is the first year listed last year?  Or is the last year listed last year?

 

As for the Pineda comment, be real.  He was coming off of TJ and didn't pitch an inning in the big leagues in 2018.  It took awhile to get back and was pitching about as well as anyone I saw by early summer.  Then the bottom dropped out and we were screwed.  I believe that big Mike can be a better pitcher than either MadBum or Ryu.  Will he?  Who knows, we will find out over the next 10 months.

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Then you are smarter than every GM is baseball. Ordorizi was out there for anyone and everyone to bid on before he accepted our QO. They have 10 days once it is extended. Funny there wasn't anyone out there willing to make him a better offer than that if he is better than those guys?????

Wow is that misleading. It took everyone else multiple months to get their deals but he was supposed to have gotten 100 mil in 10 days? Come on. Not to mention that the last 2 off seasons have shown how brutal it can be to get a good deal if you have a draft pick attached to you. Dallas Keuchel would like to talk to you about how easy it is to sign a deal in 10 days after receiving a QO.

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They had the choice to sign elsewhere, yes they did. What they didn't have were offers significantly better than what we gave them. If there were that wanted, we'd have had to pay more for them. 

What's your point? That the Twins were able to sign 2 guys in the same tier as Wheeler, Bumgarner, and Ryu for way less? That makes them bad or what? Odo is a different case as he had the pick attached to him and decided another year like last year puts him in place to get 100 mil instead of 75 mil.

 

You seem to be mistaking more money with better production. 

 

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My point is that if they are so much better than guys that are making 4X the money they are, why didn't any other teams approach them?

We have read that as many as 5-10 teams are in on all these starters? How come none of them came after our boys that are BETTER as you say than the rest of that bunch?

 

Other GMs and organizations must not know as much as our guys do. I'm sorry I forgot all about that. 

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My point is that if they are so much better than guys that are making 4X the money they are, why didn't any other teams approach them?

We have read that as many as 5-10 teams are in on all these starters? How come none of them came after our boys that are BETTER as you say than the rest of that bunch?

 

Other GMs and organizations must not know as much as our guys do. I'm sorry I forgot all about that. 

Odo had a draft pick attached to him. Keuchel is one of the guys who are supposedly better than him cuz he got a bigger deal, but he had to wait until after the draft to sign last year cuz of that pick being attached.

 

Pineda is suspended for part of the year after having pitched only part of last year and missing the whole previous season with TJ surgery. The Twins know him better than anyone else so were able to approach that situation with more knowledge thus making them more willing to take on risk with him as they had a better idea of what his risk was. So, yes, in his case they do know more than the other GMs and organizations. Just like the Giants know more about MadBum and weren't willing to pay him and the Dodgers know more about Ryu and weren't willing to pay him.

 

And I said they are all in the same tier, not that our boys are BETTER. If Odo was a straight up free agent he would have been right in the mix with Wheeler, MadBum, and Ryu contract wise. He had a different situation because of the QO.

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I'm sure the Twins have their coaching staff looking at video of free agent pitchers seeing if there is anything they could find mechanically with them

 

If I were making the calls for the Twins I would be looking at Matt Moore, Alex Sanchez or Shelby Mill and Drew Smyly for the bullpen.

 

Of all the pitchers left in free agency I would sign Alex Wood, no it's not a flashy move but if his back is ok then it could pay off.

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Then you are smarter than every GM is baseball. Ordorizi was out there for anyone and everyone to bid on before he accepted our QO. They have 10 days once it is extended. Funny there wasn't anyone out there willing to make him a better offer than that if he is better than those guys?????

 

Odorizi was a member of the Twins until after he accepted or declined his qualifying offer.  He could not be "bid" on until after that process was over.

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I hate it when people do stuff like this and never clearly tell you at the end who they are.  As such, your comment is meaningless.

 

As for the Pineda comment, be real.  He was coming off of TJ and didn't pitch an inning in the big leagues in 2018.  It took awhile to get back and was pitching about as well as anyone I saw by early summer.  Then the bottom dropped out and we were screwed.  I believe that big Mike can be a better pitcher than either MadBum or Ryu.  Will he?  Who knows, we will find out over the next 10 months.

That's fair and I apologize.  I like to use exercises like this because I am interested to see how other people will interpret the statistics.  Ryu is E.  For Pineda, I omitted 2018 because of the TJ and included 2016 instead.  I definitely should have mentioned that.  The same concerns that are valid for Ryu are also valid for Pineda.  Has Pineda ever been an above league average pitcher for a sustained sample size?  Pineda is C and is clearly weaker in my mind.  Odorizzi is B.  Before last year, Odorizzi was decidedly average.  He, MadBum and Pineda are all the same age.  Why is it impossible for MadBum to bounce back yet we are counting on Odorizzi and Pineda to demonstrate sustained success for the first times in their careers at the same age?  MadBum is A as was correctly guessed.  Personally, I would rather have that stat line than B or C.  I also think there is something to be said for postseason experience that can't be quantified.  Berrios is D and is a stud.  The other point I'd like to make is Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda is all well and good but that's assuming they're all healthy and available..  I really would like to have at least four established starters for contingency purposes in the playoffs.  For me I'd go Ryu, Berrios, MadBum, Odo, Pineda

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I'm not sure I'll buy this one, though. My point is that most people seem to have defined "impact" as getting the big-time stud. Note the number of "giving Odo a QO (or signing Pineda) is okay if it's the second-best signing of the winter" comments.

 

My point is that when the FO makes the "impact pitching" comment at a point when all you've got is Berrios and a batch of rookies in the starting rotation and a youngish, though promising bullpen, I measure getting "impact pitching" as the cumulative of the off-season moves. That's particularly how you fill Nos. 2-5, but also how you improve the bullpen.

 

So far, I've seen additions of Odo, Pineda, Romo, and Clippard. I hope they aren't done, because I really would prefer to see two veterans added so that Dobnak/Smeltzer et al. would be fighting for the Pineda suspension starts and then to stay in the rotation.

 

So in the context of this winter, I'd feel pretty good about still getting a .1 bWAR from 2019 coming off of 3.5 and 3.1 from the two previous years, with a four-year average of 167 innings, particularly if all it cost me was a Class A SS. That guy might indeed turn in a 1.5 bWAR, but he could also turn in a 3.6, so let's split the difference and call it 2.5, or even the 2.2 Odo had averaged his last three seasons in TB. 

 

I'd feel even better if they got two of them! With a winter that nets Odo, Pineda, Romo, Clippard and two veteran starters who get 2.2-2.5 bWARs, I'd definitely consider that getting "impact pitching." 

Was Martín Pérez an "impact pitcher" acquisition last offseason by this definition? (Cue the "negative impact" jokes.) He had a -0.9 bWAR in 2018 (-0.1 fWAR) but the two years before that he was 1.8 and 2.3 bWAR (or 2.2 and 2.3 fWAR). He was younger too. I'll grant Odorizzi was better, but they seem to be in a similar class by the parameters you've introduced here.

 

Odorizzi might show the upside of aiming in that class, but Pérez seems to show the downside (and also serves a reminder that this coaching staff might be very good, but we can't expect them to be perfect at turning guys around either).

 

I hope the Twins were (and still are) aiming higher than two SP additions from that class this winter, coming off a division title, lots of payroll space, and lots of prospect capital. Seems almost recklessly conservative to not aim higher than that.

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That's fair and I apologize.  I like to use exercises like this because I am interested to see how other people will interpret the statistics.  Ryu is E.  For Pineda, I omitted 2018 because of the TJ and included 2016 instead.  I definitely should have mentioned that.  The same concerns that are valid for Ryu are also valid for Pineda.  Has Pineda ever been an above league average pitcher for a sustained sample size?  Pineda is C and is clearly weaker in my mind.  Odorizzi is B.  Before last year, Odorizzi was decidedly average.  He, MadBum and Pineda are all the same age.  Why is it impossible for MadBum to bounce back yet we are counting on Odorizzi and Pineda to demonstrate sustained success for the first times in their careers at the same age?  MadBum is A as was correctly guessed.  Personally, I would rather have that stat line than B or C.  I also think there is something to be said for postseason experience that can't be quantified.  Berrios is D and is a stud.  The other point I'd like to make is Berrios, Odorizzi and Pineda is all well and good but that's assuming they're all healthy and available..  I really would like to have at least four established starters for contingency purposes in the playoffs.  

I guess I don't get why you would want MadBum who is clearly on the decline over someone who is trending upwards. Why take on the extra risk of him having to turn it around over the other 2 just maintaining? Not to mention MadBum away from SF was a complete and utter disaster. I will be legitimately surprised if he thrives in a much more hitter friendly park in AZ.

 

I don't think there are drastic differences (other than MadBum who I think is finished) between this group as they all have their warts (thus being second tier type pitchers).

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I'm sure the Twins have their coaching staff looking at video of free agent pitchers seeing if there is anything they could find mechanically with them

 

If I were making the calls for the Twins I would be looking at Matt Moore, Alex Sanchez or Shelby Mill and Drew Smyly for the bullpen.

 

Of all the pitchers left in free agency I would sign Alex Wood, no it's not a flashy move but if his back is ok then it could pay off.

Who's Alex Sanchez?

 

I'd be interested in a few of those guys -- but as lotto tickets rather than our top offseason SP addition!

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Not in the playoffs. And as my post clearly stated I was referring to the nashing of teeth over how the Twins can't compete in the postseason with these arms. Most teams run 3.5 starters in the postseason depending on how many games they play in each series. The Twins have 3 guys in line with what people wanted to see signed as "impact pitching." So they have 3 impact arms and people are concerned that the 4th guy who likely makes 2 starts in the postseason is what is holding them back.

 

They need another arm, again, as I stated in that post, but people are acting like the trio currently sitting at the top isn't good enough to be considered "impact pitching." If that is the case then the only 2 FA who were that good were Cole and Strasburg and those aren't guys the Twins will ever sign. They are looking to add another veteran and will use the 5th spot to give the young guys a shot. Much like the system the Indians use as they develop the best young rotation in baseball and which was designed by the current president of baseball operations in MN.

 

So, yes, there are 5 rotation spots on most MLB teams during the regular season. There are also many teams who use a "bullpen day" but I won't even get into that. You chose to ignore the entire premise of my post (that fans are upset because they aren't signing "impact pitching" to win in the playoffs) and their definition of "impact pitching" is the level of the 3 current starters. Not to mention 2 of those arms were free agent signings that everyone wants to discount because they pitched here last year. Grass isn't always greener...

your argument is that the 2019 NL CY Award winner isnt better than any of Berrios, Odorizzi, or Pineda?? THAT'S what your hanging your hat on?

 

Edit: CY runner up

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Odorizi was a member of the Twins until after he accepted or declined his qualifying offer. He could not be "bid" on until after that process was over.

its your position that Odorizzi and his agent had no clue of what his market vakue would be if he declined the QO?

 

Or is it your position he knew he could get as much as Wheeler/Bumgarner/Ryu and elected NOT to?

 

Color me skeptical, in either case.

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your argument is that the 2019 NL CY Award winner isnt better than any of Berrios, Odorizzi, or Pineda?? THAT'S what your hanging your hat on?

deGrom was a free agent this year? Must have missed that. Or him being mentioned in trade rumors.

 

I assume you're actually talking about Ryu, but he didn't win the 2019 (or any other year) NL CY Award. And, yes, I am hanging my hat on the fact that a guy on the IL is not better than someone not on the IL. Would he have been a nice get on a 2 or 3 year deal? Sure. Do I think he'll magically put together 4 uninjured years after having 1 in the last 6 while now turning 33? No. And there is no logical reason why anyone would. Thus he is in the 2nd tier of pitchers, just like the 3 the Twins have, and not in the top tier with Cole and Strasburg. And you can't even make the argument that other MLB teams don't agree cuz he signed right in line with the 2nd tier guys and for a contract similar to what Odo will likely get next year.

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I don't see any national writers supporting Gleeman's claim that the twins are offering big dollar contracts but no one wants to come here. Was this something leaked to him specifically so he would disseminate it? The story just isn't adding up. I'm starting to suspect they weren't willing to make the highest offer on a single top tier free agent.

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its your position that Odorizzi and his agent had no clue of what his market vakue would be if he declined the QO?

Or is it your position he knew he could get as much as Wheeler/Bumgarner/Ryu and elected NOT to?

Color me skeptical, in either case.

I think him and his agent knew he wouldn't get similar to those 3 because he had a draft pick attached to him the second the Twins put that QO out there. And as the last 2 offseason have shown that drastically limits your negotiating powers in contract situations. 

 

Need an example? Keuchel and Kimbrel just last year. Be as skeptical as you want, but you are either ignoring what the QO offer does to a player's value or just don't quite understand that he was in a very different situation to those 3.

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deGrom was a free agent this year? Must have missed that. Or him being mentioned in trade rumors.

 

I assume you're actually talking about Ryu, but he didn't win the 2019 (or any other year) NL CY Award. And, yes, I am hanging my hat on the fact that a guy on the IL is not better than someone not on the IL. Would he have been a nice get on a 2 or 3 year deal? Sure. Do I think he'll magically put together 4 uninjured years after having 1 in the last 6 while now turning 33? No. And there is no logical reason why anyone would. Thus he is in the 2nd tier of pitchers, just like the 3 the Twins have, and not in the top tier with Cole and Strasburg. And you can't even make the argument that other MLB teams don't agree cuz he signed right in line with the 2nd tier guys and for a contract similar to what Odo will likely get next year.

CY runner up.

 

We're talking about the team that started Randy Dobnak in game 2 of the ALDS in Yankee Stadium.

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its your position that Odorizzi and his agent had no clue of what his market vakue would be if he declined the QO?

Or is it your position he knew he could get as much as Wheeler/Bumgarner/Ryu and elected NOT to?

Color me skeptical, in either case.

 

My position is neither.  Jake was not a free agent until after the qualifying offer day came.  The previous poster claimed no teams offered him in those 10 days, which couldn't happen.

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Not a lot of options left now... they absolutely need to pull off a trade. Maybe get Archer from the Pirates, or try to pry Jon Gray away from the Rockies.

 

As for free agents... um... you hope Alex Wood rebounds, or perhaps you sign Rich Hill since his numbers have been really good when he's been healthy...

Yeah get Hill, he has been unbelievable when he is healthy. Prob just need to sit him out until late July and then get like 15 starts out of him to finish the season. Hill when healthy might be better than Berrios. Problem is that he can't stay healthy.
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I don't see any national writers supporting Gleeman's claim that the twins are offering big dollar contracts but no one wants to come here. Was this something leaked to him specifically so he would disseminate it? The story just isn't adding up. I'm starting to suspect they weren't willing to make the highest offer on a single top tier free agent.

It has been widely reported nationally and locally that Wheeler wanted to be in Philly cuz his fiancé is from there and wanted to be close to her family and that MadBum wanted to be in AZ. In fact both of them said as much publicly. Its been nationally reported that AZ didn't even call MadBum, but he actually went to them and said "if you can get close to what I want I'll come here" and they adjusted their plans.

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CY runner up.

We're talking about the team that started Randy Dobnak in game 2 of the ALDS in Yankee Stadium.

I've already spoken to the injuries and suspensions drastically changing this team in October. If it had been Pineda I don't think there would be quite as much anger right now. Dobnak starting seems to have even convinced fans that 7 runs in 3 games was enough for us to have won if only we had MadBum! Or whatever other pitcher we haven't signed. Ryu has been great more often than not when he actually pitches. Problem is he doesn't actually pitch very often. And that is a problem.

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I like nicksaviking's idea.  If the Twins are going to make a move now that they've missed out on all the non-Twins FA SP's go for an ACE like Chris Sake or Blake Snell.  If the Red Sox are looking to cut salary and Price and Ed. Rodriguez have been mentioned, inquire about both of them but also ask about sale.  I doubt Boston moves a young, controllable LHP like Rodriguez, but why settle for Price when you can have Sale ?  Sale will cost more in payroll but we've got PLENTY of flexibility there.  What would it take in players/prospects ??  Otherwise, Blake Snell is an excellent idea.  He's an ACE, he's young.  Lock him up and put him at the top of your rotation for several years.  The other nice thing about Sale, is that you have cost certainty for several years (albeit a hefty salary) but go for someone you'd be confident starting game #1 against the Yankees, Dodgers, Astros etc...  Don't SETTLE.

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I've already spoken to the injuries and suspensions drastically changing this team in October. If it had been Pineda I don't think there would be quite as much anger right now. Dobnak starting seems to have even convinced fans that 7 runs in 3 games was enough for us to have won if only we had MadBum! Or whatever other pitcher we haven't signed. Ryu has been great more often than not when he actually pitches. Problem is he doesn't actually pitch very often. And that is a problem.

you're arguing on one hand the Twins were victims of injuries and suspensions, while at the same time arguing they should go into 2020 with a 3 deep pitching staff again. What could go wrong?

 

And I'm unimpressed with arguments based on the Twins only scoring 7 runs in the ALDS...17 would have been 5 short. They gave up 23, in 2 fewer innings than they pitched.

 

They need improved starting pitching. Letting all the FA options go was a colossal mistake. Full stop.

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you're arguing on one hand the Twins were victims of injuries and suspensions, while at the same time arguing they should go into 2020 with a 3 deep pitching staff again. What could go wrong?

And I'm unimpressed with arguments based on the Twins only scoring 7 runs in the ALDS...17 would have been 5 short. They gave up 23, in 2 fewer innings than they pitched.

They need improved starting pitching. Letting all the FA options go was a colossal mistake. Full stop.

"Letting all the FA options go" is where you completely lose me. That isn't how this works. What would you have done different? Offer MadBum 5, 150? Ryu 4, 120? Wheeler 6, 200? Sign Cole to 400+ mil? Strasburg for 400? They aren't shopping at the store and just taking whatever items they want while leaving the others. They didn't "let them go," they set what they felt was an acceptable deal on the table and the players chose where they wanted to go. Spending drastically more than anyone else is willing to is not a good team building strategy. Full stop.

 

And I've never argued they should go into 2020 with a 3 deep rotation. I have continually said they need to add. I am just not broken up over not overpaying for 2 guys who went to the places they wanted to be (1 of which I think is washed up) or a guy who has pitched 2 complete seasons his entire career. Falvey was one of the top developers of the Indians pitching system and I am willing to give him a shot at turning our young arms into legit starters. I want 1 spot available for them to rotate through and get experience until 1 of them takes it and runs with it. That leaves 1 more spot to fill in the rotation and I would like to see if they can get Price for nothing while taking on a decent chunk of his only 3 years remaining. Or go get Ray for what I think would be less than any of our top 5 prospects. Or Matz or whatever other guy they can get for a reasonable trade price. Or add a couple of the bounce back options and let them battle it out while Pineda is suspended. 

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I don't see any national writers supporting Gleeman's claim that the twins are offering big dollar contracts but no one wants to come here. Was this something leaked to him specifically so he would disseminate it? The story just isn't adding up. I'm starting to suspect they weren't willing to make the highest offer on a single top tier free agent.

It's pretty obvious they didn't. Did they make "big $ offers" yes. Were they the highest bidder on anyone? I doubt it. But "no one wants to come here."

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