Front Page: Ryu To Sign with Toronto. Now What?

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Why would Odo sign here? We are told FAs don't want to come here....why would he want to stay?

Not to mention the market has already been set by Wheeler of 23.5 per, which the FO wouldn't meet. Why would they do differently for Jake? They've made it clear. Players come here on a discount or they sign the next Martin Perez.

[mlhouse]

Pass on Price.   

But the Twins need to look at making a trade for  mid-level starting pitcher with only Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol and Jordan Balazovic off limits in the deal.  

 

They also need to commit to creating at least one long term viable starter out of Graterol, Drabnak, and the other starters that bounced back and forth between the majors and minors last season.  If we cannot do this, then all of the accolades our "system" gets are overwrought.  

[adorduan]

 

I said at the outset that I thought the Twins would follow the Rays bullpen rotation path and that looks like what they are doing. They've made some good additions to the pen in Romo and Clippard. I think they might make one or two more additions like them.

They won't sign Donaldson but they might sign either a defensive first MIer to move our infield around a bit (Sano at first, Polanco to second, FA at short and Arreaz at third) or sign a stop gap first baseman until one of our young prospects is ready to come up. 

 

We're obviously not at the level of the Yankees or Astros and a few bad breaks could have the Sox catch up with us but we should still be favored to win 90 games and get into the playoffs without jeopardizing the future with bad contracts or trading away impact prospects. Essentially, this FO is following the Ryan model. We'll see if they can do it as well.

If they were going to do the bullpen model, they should have signed Smith.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

As a fan, of course I'm disappointed and frustrated. I was hoping for Wheeler and Bumgarner was my 2nd Choice. I've just never been sold on Ryu, though I would have cheered and hoped.

I'm not trying to sound smart, but I've said all along it was 50-50 the Twins would sign a FA vs making a trade. Except for Wheeler and Bumgarner, I didn't see a match that made sense.

Now, they still have to make a trade, and I believe they will. Who and what it will cost I don't know.

Lastly, there are still a couple guys like Wood and Walker who i think would be smart, inexpensive bounce back candidates to help fill up the rotation. I hope we go get one.

Sign both Wood and Walker and make a trade. These guys should both sign for a year for 6mil I would guess. And unless their arms fall off at least they buy time for the milb players to get some more time under their belts.

 

Wood and Walker offer the best upside of what's left imo. No to Homer Bailey please.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Great minds thinking alike, apparently. Your post popped up as I was finishing mine. Brevity, you see, has never been a virtue of mine. 

 

(In fact, I could tell you about some of the long posts I've written. They started when I said something like...)

 

I certainly hope so. My concern is that the front office helped create the backlash we're seeing by making a lot of noise about free agency. I don't think they can be blamed for some of the misses - e.g., Bumgarner - but surely they knew that a lot of teams would be looking for pitching. 

 

So even if/when they execute on another plan, which I still expect to happen, it was bad PR.

[rdehring]

 

I certainly hope so. My concern is that the front office helped create the backlash we're seeing by making a lot of noise about free agency. I don't think they can be blamed for some of the misses - e.g., Bumgarner - but surely they knew that a lot of teams would be looking for pitching. 

 

So even if/when they execute on another plan, which I still expect to happen, it was bad PR.

I have a question?  And I'm to old to go digging around to try to find the actual quotes.  I know the FO has made comments about a need for "impact pitching," or something like that.  Did they ever say that was tied to getting an impact free agent?  Or was it a general statement of their goal for the off season?

[cardsfan]

If you make a bad deal you go backwards.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you make a bad deal you go backwards.

 

If you stand still while everyone else moves forward.....

[Vanimal46]

I have a question? And I'm to old to go digging around to try to find the actual quotes. I know the FO has made comments about a need for "impact pitching," or something like that. Did they ever say that was tied to getting an impact free agent? Or was it a general statement of their goal for the off season?

“I think we feel a breeze,” he (Levine) said with a grin. “We’re feeling a breeze right now. I think we feel like we’re getting to a place now where we feel a little bit more emboldened to sit down with [owner] Jim Pohlad and [President] Dave [st. Peter] and talk about being a little bit more aggressive. We feel like we’re progressing for sure.”

 

“In free agency, we’re going to have a lot of conversations with a lot of players who are freely available to talk to us,” Twins Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey said. “We’re also going to talk to a lot of clubs about players that are on other teams and potential trade targets for us. I can’t put a number or where a guy is or what that means, but we’re going to target impact pitching. I think that’s going to be a big part of our focus, and try to figure out if we can get there.”

 

This FO doesn’t commit to anything and everything all at once.

[MABB1959]

I am wondering......what will Buxton, Berrios, Sano, Polanco and Rosario do now.  It seems obvious that the Twins will never sign a top free agent.   I may get the word here wrong but do you think any of them would sign an extension to stay here, they will mostly likely be able to get good money in free agency and go with a team that has the goal and will go all out to win a WS?  I am sure there is frustration for them now too.  A couple of years where the FO threw in the  towel or like last year go get someone to help win the series.  I would think be on a team that goes for it every year would have some appeal.  This may be a stupid question buy I can't imagine any decent player wanted to sit around for this to hspp

[Mr. Brooks]

I am wondering......what will Buxton, Berrios, Sano, Polanco and Rosario do now. It seems obvious that the Twins will never sign a top free agent. I may get the word here wrong but do you think any of them would sign an extension to stay here, they will mostly likely be able to get good money in free agency and go with a team that has the goal and will go all out to win a WS? I am sure there is frustration for them now too. A couple of years where the FO threw in the towel or like last year go get someone to help win the series. I would think be on a team that goes for it every year would have some appeal. This may be a stupid question buy I can't imagine any decent player wanted to sit around for this to hspp

Polanco already signed an extension last year.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I am wondering......what will Buxton, Berrios, Sano, Polanco and Rosario do now.  It seems obvious that the Twins will never sign a top free agent.   I may get the word here wrong but do you think any of them would sign an extension to stay here, they will mostly likely be able to get good money in free agency and go with a team that has the goal and will go all out to win a WS?  I am sure there is frustration for them now too.  A couple of years where the FO threw in the  towel or like last year go get someone to help win the series.  I would think be on a team that goes for it every year would have some appeal.  This may be a stupid question buy I can't imagine any decent player wanted to sit around for this to hspp

 

I'd look at the last two trade deadlines, and the lack of action this year, and ask to be traded. 

 

Professional athletes are competitors unlike most others on the planet. They have to be to rise to the top of the pack like they do. I'm guessing there are some unhappy players in MN now (guessing being the key word, of course). This looks exactly like when Torii and Johan said the future never comes.

[cardsfan]

If you stand still while everyone else moves forward.....

[Old Twins Cap]

I'm intrigued with the idea of starting the season by running out a couple of "openers", buttressed by bulk-innings guys.

 

Tampa Bay did pretty well in that system last year, and the Twins are sitting on a bunch of MiLB guys who have had some success, but are still in MiLB.

 

How do you get better as a MLB pitcher?

 

By pitching innings.

 

Twins run this "opener" and "bulk" system for a couple months -- they will find out who looks like they are making the next step -- Graterol, Smeltzer, Balazovich, Dobnak.

 

Remember, there is a 26th guy this year.  And, under MLB rules, guys can be shuttled back and forth to Rochester in the year their option is being excersized.

 

It's kind of a "exploiting the under-utilized market" of the roster to be giving your best MiLB prospects access to regular MLB pitching -- not crunch time pitching -- but early-inning bulk experiences.

 

It's how you develop pitchers, and from that, starters and relievers who have experience and learned what to throw.

 

So, rather than putting my head in my hands for one guy, I think they take two slots and do the Rochester shuttle.

 

They should sign one other bulk pitcher though, on a bounce-back deal.

[amjgt]

 

I'm intrigued with the idea of starting the season by running out a couple of "openers", buttressed by bulk-innings guys.

 

Tampa Bay did pretty well in that system last year, and the Twins are sitting on a bunch of MiLB guys who have had some success, but are still in MiLB.

 

How do you get better as a MLB pitcher?

 

By pitching innings.

 

Twins run this "opener" and "bulk" system for a couple months -- they will find out who looks like they are making the next step -- Graterol, Smeltzer, Balazovich, Dobnak.

 

Remember, there is a 26th guy this year.  And, under MLB rules, guys can be shuttled back and forth to Rochester in the year their option is being excersized.

 

It's kind of a "exploiting the under-utilized market" of the roster to be giving your best MiLB prospects access to regular MLB pitching -- not crunch time pitching -- but early-inning bulk experiences.

 

It's how you develop pitchers, and from that, starters and relievers who have experience and learned what to throw.

 

So, rather than putting my head in my hands for one guy, I think they take two slots and do the Rochester shuttle.

 

They should sign one other bulk pitcher though, on a bounce-back deal.

 

Oooooooorrrrrr....

 

They could look at a 101 win team that likely overachieved a little and think "holy crap, that was fun. Let's do that again"... then look at their payroll situation and think "wow! we actually have the money to do that!"

[Otto von Ballpark]

From what I remember, very few if any of us had Odorizzi on our radar, when suddenly we opened Twins Daily on February 17 (yes, FEBRUARY) and found that we'd gotten an under-the-radar starter for the cost of a Class A shortstop (and I don't remember how highly regarded he was at the time). I think that trade's worked out pretty well.

 

Point being, there's lots of time left, and there's way more guys out there than have been named to date. I'd much rather have this year's Jake Odorizzi than guys who are going 30-40 percent more than what MLBTR had projected (not that they are gospel, but their projections seemed generally on target at the time).

It was a solid trade -- but was Odorizzi an "impact pitcher" at the time, or in his first season here? Teams generally aren't trading guys with fewer question marks than the FAs.

 

Also, Wheeler and Bumgarner only got 18% more than MLBTR estimates, less if you discount Bumgarner's deferred money and extra year. Maybe we wouldn't have had to pay 30-40% if we had been aggressive earlier?

 

And this cuts both ways. Two years ago, we only offered Darvish 40% *less* than MLBTR's prediction. I'd be more open to sitting out a hot market if we had been more aggressive in a slow one.

[cardsfan]

Who in the division is really moving forward? The Twins being 7 games under .500 against winning teams is a concern. Ryu would be great except he broke down in August and had some terrible games until his last regular season game. In his only playoff game he lasted 5 innings.

 

A young starter with 3 or so years in the league would cost what? I would trade a position player who did well against bad teams and poorly against teams above .500 for a pitcher.

[Bomba2026]

So Ryu would rather play in Toronto? Have any of these free agents ever been to MN?? Is it that bad? Apparently.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Who in the division is really moving forward? The Twins being 7 games under .500 against winning teams is a concern. Ryu would be great except he broke down in August and had some terrible games until his last regular season game. In his only playoff game he lasted 5 innings.

A young starter with 3 or so years in the league would cost what? I would trade a position player who did well against bad teams and poorly against teams above .500 for a pitcher.

 

uh, the white sox. Unless you think filling 3-5 of your holes with new players isn't moving forward. 

 

And the Angels, and he Yankees. It isn't just about winning a division.

[howeda7]

 

Oooooooorrrrrr....

 

They could look at a 101 win team that likely overachieved a little and think "holy crap, that was fun. Let's do that again"... then look at their payroll situation and think "wow! we actually have the money to do that!"

Any idiot could just go sign players to plug the massive holes on their roster. Where's the challenge in that? Smart guys like Falvey know better.

[jorgenswest]

It's more than 10 million a year more, for a less healthy guy.....it's a way worse risk. Way worse.

 

I think the total pay out matters more than the year but if Price’s health risk is worse than Ryu’s then I would back off on Price. I don’t think Ryu gives more than two years of starts out of four but maybe Price does make it through 2.

 

I guess they are both the next injury away from ending a career and the Twins should avoid both. I am finding arguments persuasive that these deals are going to work out pretty badly. I went in thinking the Twins needed to get three established and go with youth on the 5th spot but maybe two is the better plan.

[cmoss84]

Is there a sale on Price? What's the price of Sale?

 

The sky is not falling to me...yet. Still time for Archer/Bell AND Ray!

[mshnd06]

Honest question here, why do people think we could get Sale?  Price, I get, he's expensive and on the decline.  I know Sale had a rough 2019 but I doubt the Red Sox would part with him, at least not cheaply.   Have they been shopping him and I missed it?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Honest question here, why do people think we could get Sale?  Price, I get, he's expensive and on the decline.  I know Sale had a rough 2019 but I doubt the Red Sox would part with him, at least not cheaply.   Have they been shopping him and I missed it?

 

No. People just keep listing players they hope are available.

 

But if we look at the off season trade market, top starting pitchers aren't traded that often. About 0-3 a year......

[Dave Overlund]

How would a starter at the deadline beat the Yankees in the playoffs when the best offense in baseball only scored 7 runs in 3 games?

 

Probably pressed feeling like they needed to hit ten home runs to win

[chpettit19]

All of the frustration about the lack of big name starters being signed seems to be because they got swept out of the playoffs by the Yankees again. According to Fangraphs the Twins had the 7th best rotation in all of baseball last year and the 3rd best bullpen. No Pineda really changed the look of this team come October and I fully believe in the idea that you can never have too much pitching, but it seems to me like people are acting like Berrios, Odo, and Pineda were the top 3 guys in some bottom 5 rotation or something. 

 

People are freaking out cuz they didn't sign Wheeler, MadBum, or Ryu who were all basically the same as Berrios and Odo (Pineda too, but his suspension makes me mad so I don't want to include him) last year and acting like bringing back Odo is just nothing and we're screwed if him or Berrios are our number 1 cuz we need one of these other guys who are the same to be the #1 instead. I absolutely agree we need another arm, especially while Pineda is out, but to act like Wheeler, MadBum, or Ryu are this fabled "impact pitching" we need, but Berrios and Odo aren't impact is ridiculous to me. They're all the same "impact" and Berrios is the youngest of the group with Odo just 2 months older than Wheeler. 

 

Not to mention the fact that the offense scored 7 runs in 3 games against the Yankees so I'm not quite sure why you aren't all lambasting the FO about not bringing in "impact hitting" since your argument is that without severe increase in talent there is a 0% chance we get passed the Yankees ever. 2 runs a game would seem to be a sign that this team is severly lacking in offensive talent when it comes to October as well. Injuries (Arraez, although he hit well, and Kepler, who didn't look like himself at all) and suspension dramatically changed this team come playoff time.

 

I want to see another arm brought in, but lets not rewrite history and start acting like we have no arms in our rotation. If you believe any of those 2nd tier FA were "impact pitching" then you think we have 2 "impact pitchers." If you don't think Berrios and Odo are good enough to get by in the playoffs then you don't think any of those 3 are either. You're just confusing spending more money with getting better players. I would have enjoyed another player on that level to add to the depth of arms, but missing on them isn't the same as missing on Cole or Strasburg. At this point I'd rather see us extend Berrios and Odo for the money we would have given to older guys or Wheeler. We know those 2 much more intimately than any of the FA arms so we have a much better idea on how they fit in the clubhouse and how they work with our coaches.

[IndianaTwin]

 

It was a solid trade -- but was Odorizzi an "impact pitcher" at the time, or in his first season here? Teams generally aren't trading guys with fewer question marks than the FAs.

Also, Wheeler and Bumgarner only got 18% more than MLBTR estimates, less if you discount Bumgarner's deferred money and extra year. Maybe we wouldn't have had to pay 30-40% if we had been aggressive earlier?

And this cuts both ways. Two years ago, we only offered Darvish 40% *less* than MLBTR's prediction. I'd be more open to sitting out a hot market if we had been more aggressive in a slow one.

 

First, my bad -- I misread Bumgarner's contract in calculating the 30-40%.

 

I'd also concur with your desire to be more aggressive in a slow market, though to use Darvish as the example, I think I'm glad we missed out, particularly if it had taken somewhat more than what he got. So far, we'd have spent however much more than $45MM for 218.2 innings and be left with however much more than $81MM over the remaining four years for his 33-36 years.

 

The remaining amount is probably not a gross overpayment of what he might get if he was a FA this winter, and I know that one decision doesn't automatically correlate to another, but if having Darvish would have kept us from signing Cruz, for example, I particularly am glad we didn't get Darvish.

 

I don't remember if there were other specific circumstances on why TB was trading Odo, but he was coming off three seasons with a combined average ERA+ of 109 and four straight years of 140+ innings. On the subject of "impact" pitching, I'm thinking more in the cumulative than in the individual. Considering that the "impact" quote came at a time when only one guy on the roster had more than six starts last year, if that's what they would get for a Class A shortstop this winter after already signing the sixth and ninth-best starters, yeah, I'd call that getting "impact" pitching. 

 

One note that I did see on Darvish's contract that I wish they'd do more of. It's front-loaded at 25-20-22-22-19-18. I'd love to see them go back to Odo and offer him a raise to $20MM this year, followed by two years at $18MM each and an option year at $16MM, for example. That would be getting him close to Ryu/Bumgarner money and better than Keuchel, while taking out his risk on getting injured.  

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

First, my bad -- I misread Bumgarner's contract in calculating the 30-40%.

 

I'd also concur with your desire to be more aggressive in a slow market, though to use Darvish as the example, I think I'm glad we missed out, particularly if it had taken somewhat more than what he got. So far, we'd have spent however much more than $45MM for 218.2 innings and be left with however much more than $81MM over the remaining four years for his 33-36 years.

 

The remaining amount is probably not a gross overpayment of what he might get if he was a FA this winter, and I know that one decision doesn't automatically correlate to another, but if having Darvish would have kept us from signing Cruz, for example, I particularly am glad we didn't get Darvish.

 

I don't remember if there were other specific circumstances on why TB was trading Odo, but he was coming off three seasons with a combined average ERA+ of 109 and four straight years of 140+ innings. On the subject of "impact" pitching, I'm thinking more in the cumulative than in the individual, so considering that that quote came at a time when only one guy on the roster had more than six starts last year, if that's what they would get for a Class A shortstop this winter after already signing the sixth and ninth-best starters, yeah, I'd call that getting "impact" pitching. 

 

One note that I did see on Darvish's contract that I wish they'd do more of. It's front-loaded at 25-20-22-22-19-18. I'd love to see them go back to Odo and offer him a raise to $20MM this year, followed by two years at $18MM each and an option year at $16MM, for example. That would be getting him close to Ryu/Bumgarner money and better than Keuchel, while taking out his risk on getting injured.  

 

they refused to offer that much to any of the free agents this year, why would we think they'll do so for Odo, when they don't have to to keep him this year/

[mshnd06]

I can't say that MadBum or Ryu is unequivocally better than Berrios and Odorizzi, but Ryu was second in the Cy Young voting and Mad Bum has won in the playoffs.  I'd say they represent at least marginal improvement over the latter two and significant improvement over Gibson who they would be replacing.

[chpettit19]

 

I can't say that MadBum or Ryu is unequivocally better than Berrios and Odorizzi, but Ryu was second in the Cy Young voting and Mad Bum has won in the playoffs.  I'd say they represent at least marginal improvement over the latter two and significant improvement over Gibson who they would be replacing.

MadBum won in the playoffs when he was 20, 22, 24, and 26, he's going to be 30 this year. I don't care about his age 26 season 4 years later. Ryu has pitched 4.2, 126.2, 82.1, and182.2 innings the last 4 years after having missed all of 2015 and is going to be 33 this year. You think he'll start holding up better as he gets older? I don't think they represent any improvement moving forward. And if improving on our #4 starter is your definition of "impact pitching" then I guess we strongly disagree on that definition.