Front Page: Ryu To Sign with Toronto. Now What?

[Major League Ready]

 

So what's your plan then?

 

Want to sell off this core and reload up again?

 

This team is in a unique position. They are stocked almost around the diamond. Their bullpen is in pretty good shape. They are missing 2 starting pitchers. They are sitting on all kinds of payroll money. They also have a pile of good prospects with nowhere for them to play on the major league roster.

 

Doesn't it only make sense to push all in by getting yourself a couple of arms? 

 

I guess I just don't understand your hesitance to go for it. PS I don't have time to go back and sift through years and years of playoff data and who they acquired to get there etc. I would define success as getting yourself into at least the ALCS or the WS. Just because teams didn't win it, doesn't mean they didn't have success. I am more than certain there are a few mid-market teams that bought themselves a starter, a bopper, etc or trade for one that made some playoff runs. 

 

Thanks for demonstrating my point by ignoring my point. I just demonstrated the only WS winning teams with a similar profile won the WS without a big move so why do you jump to "sell off the core". Many here are unwilling to demonstrate any objectivity. Objectivity requires looking at the facts. There has not been a WS winner build in the manner many people here insist is absolutely required. The fact is that FAs in general have a very poor track record. The fact is that successful teams with less than league average revenue have not followed the practices that some here insist are required for success. Show me some evidence. That's not to say we should not sign FAs or make trades but to loose your mind because the FO demonstrates some discipline is not exactly advanced critical thinking.

 

Let's examine some facts. Let's look at evidence to support conclusions or even support our theories. It would reduce the amount of angst here. We can assume we know more than the FO or we can attempt to understand what they know that we don't. We can continue to believe we should follow practices applied by teams with $100M or $200M or $300M in revenue or we can examine how to be successful with the financial resource available to the MN Twins.

[howeda7]

 

If they're not spending on free agents, hopefully there's a plan to lock up Berrios, Buxton and Sano on front loaded contracts for their prime years.  If the Twins go into the 2020 season with a $100M payroll, it'll be a disgusting failure of an offseason. 

It's ~$101 now. They throw $7-8 million at one of the remaining pitchers in the bargain bin and go into the season with a $109 million payroll. A cut of about $16 million from 2019.

[nick_hansen]

 

Thanks for demonstrating my point by ignoring my point. I just demonstrated the only WS winning teams with a similar profile won the WS without a big move so why do you jump to "sell off the core". Many here are unwilling to demonstrate any objectivity. Objectivity requires looking at the facts. There has not been a WS winner build in the manner many people here insist is absolutely required. The fact is that FAs in general have a very poor track record. The fact is that successful teams with less than league average revenue have not followed the practices that some here insist are required for success. Show me some evidence. That's not to say we should not sign FAs or make trades but to loose your mind because the FO demonstrates some discipline is not exactly advanced critical thinking.

 

Let's examine some facts. Let's look at evidence to support conclusions or even support our theories. It would reduce the amount of angst here. We can assume we know more than the FO or we can attempt to understand what they know that we don't. We can continue to believe we should follow practices applied by teams with $100M or $200M or $300M in revenue or we can examine how to be successful with the financial resource available to the MN Twins.

So what you're saying is that people are being irrational for wanting a big move to shore up the pitching and if the FO decides to not pull the trigger on FA acquisitions or trades and proceed with last year's team that they are being disciplined and in-turn will be more likely to produce better results? Got it.

[Major League Ready]

 

So what you're saying is that people are being irrational for wanting a big move to shore up the pitching and if the FO decides to not pull the trigger on FA acquisitions or trades and proceed with last year's team that they are being disciplined and in-turn will be more likely to produce better results? Got it.

 

Show actual evidence to support your point that teams with similar profiles have been built in the manner you insist has to happen. I have showed the only examples of teams with similar that have actually won the WS in the past 15 years. Anyone can assume they are smarter than the FO. You can keep There should be plenty examples of successful teams if your position has any merit.

[Jham]

The thing is if they are out of it in July and do actually trade these guys(which they definitely would explore), guess what you are getting back for them?

 

PTBNL? Some teams 40th rated prospect? Rental players that are old aren't worth anything. The only reason you would trade them IMO is to accomodate them playing on a winning team. The return is probably worth roughly a dominoes large pizza.

 

If you are talking about trading them this offseason, that doesn't make much sense. They are on 1-year deals. They wouldn't have brought them back just to trade them.

Not really close to true but ok. Rentals score nice prospects at the deadline every single season.

[ChiefsKid]

I agree with you about the secondary money stuff.

 

But what part of "Wheeler turned down a higher offer in order to sign with Philadelphia and stay in the NL East" and "Bumgarner turned down a higher offer in order to sign with Arizona and stay in the NL West" are you choosing to ignore? With these two, it wasn't going to happen.

 

Ryu? Look at his age (33) and history (1 season with over 130 IP in the last 4). You have a FO that uses analytics, do you seriously think they would value Ryu all that much? Even if you don't use analytics much, why would you put any sort of long term value on Ryu?

Not making a competitive offer and Wheeler/Bumgarner "leaving money on the table" are independent situations, worthy of independent debate. The fact that the Twins didn't even make competitive offers is the underlying issue of why I'm so critical of it.

What upsets me is they claimed they would be aggressive in pursuit, but so far at every opportunity, they have been everything but.

 

I'd put long term value in Ryu because I believe he's overwhelmingly better of a pitcher than Devin Smeltzer, therefore significantly increasing the depth of the rotation and gives the Twins a much better chance at winning postseason games. 4 years was the minimum to get him. That's what his value is at. Whether you think it or not, he wasn't going to even contemplate taking a shorter offer unless it came at a massively higher AAV.

[nick_hansen]

Show actual evidence to support your point that teams with similar profiles have been built in the manner you insist has to happen. I have showed the only examples of teams with similar that have actually won the WS in the past 15 years. Anyone can assume they are smarter than the FO. You can keep There should be plenty examples of successful teams if your position has any merit.

I think you’re misunderstanding what I’m saying here. I want us to have a team made up primarily of homegrown talent. Last year, we saw such great development from our position players and our pen. However, our rotation is in tough shape and it needs to be addressed immediately if we are to have any chance at breaking the cycle of getting embarrassed in the playoffs. Right now, we don’t really have much higher-end starting pitching that will be ready in 2020, let alone 2021. We have plenty of financial flexibility through wise contract management by the FO, but this is really the time to set us up to take the next step. I’m not talking about doing anything crazy, but right now we should be spending $140M+ (Around half of overall revenues). I’m going to be patient and give these guys till ST to make a move, but if they can’t get it done or decide to stand pat and go into this season with a payroll closer to $100M (and a roster similar to last yr), that is just not an acceptable outcome IMO.

[Mr. Brooks]

Show actual evidence to support your point that teams with similar profiles have been built in the manner you insist has to happen. I have showed the only examples of teams with similar that have actually won the WS in the past 15 years. Anyone can assume they are smarter than the FO. You can keep There should be plenty examples of successful teams if your position has any merit.

Didn't you want them to sign Wheeler?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Thanks for demonstrating my point by ignoring my point. I just demonstrated the only WS winning teams with a similar profile won the WS without a big move so why do you jump to "sell off the core". Many here are unwilling to demonstrate any objectivity. Objectivity requires looking at the facts. There has not been a WS winner build in the manner many people here insist is absolutely required. The fact is that FAs in general have a very poor track record. The fact is that successful teams with less than league average revenue have not followed the practices that some here insist are required for success. Show me some evidence. That's not to say we should not sign FAs or make trades but to loose your mind because the FO demonstrates some discipline is not exactly advanced critical thinking.

 

Let's examine some facts. Let's look at evidence to support conclusions or even support our theories. It would reduce the amount of angst here. We can assume we know more than the FO or we can attempt to understand what they know that we don't. We can continue to believe we should follow practices applied by teams with $100M or $200M or $300M in revenue or we can examine how to be successful with the financial resource available to the MN Twins.

 

What's your plan? Not what shouldn't  they do, what should they do, now that they did not sign a FA, which when the off season started, you were for?

[DocBauer]

If you want to debate not signing Ryu for 4yrs and more than $20M considering age and lack of general availability for his career thus far, I can understand. I will disagree, but I understand.

 

The comments about Wheeler and Bumgarner have to stop as they are irrelevant. Sorry, but it's true. Wheeler had a strong preference to stay on the coast and turned down more money from at least one team to stay there. There are various reports that the Twins were NEVER in his plans. If they offered $140M would he have listened? Maybe. None of us knows. But than again, a contract like that is a whole different debate.

 

Bumgarner practically wrote his own deal with Arizona to fit in with their plans and finances. He's taking only $6M this year and deffering another $17M. He left $20-25M to sign where he did.

 

What do we do NOW?

 

The prospect capital is there to bring in a quality SP for the staff. Is that a #2-3 arm and who exactly I don't know. To say there are no possibilities is silly as we have and do see guys move.

 

What if there is another Odorizzi type trade we aren't even thinking about that will pay off just as well?

 

Personally, I'm hoping Donaldson is serious, not playing us, and comes on board. Sign a Wood or Walker for depth. Then go out and cash in a handful of prospect chips, or include Rosario if that is to be, and get that trade arm the FO and Johnson like.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you want to debate not signing Ryu for 4yrs and more than $20M considering age and lack of general availability for his career thus far, I can understand. I will disagree, but I understand.

The comments about Wheeler and Bumgarner have to stop as they are irrelevant. Sorry, but it's true. Wheeler had a strong preference to stay on the coast and turned down more money from at least one team to stay there. There are various reports that the Twins were NEVER in his plans. If they offered $140M would he have listened? Maybe. None of us knows. But than again, a contract like that is a whole different debate.

Bumgarner practically wrote his own deal with Arizona to fit in with their plans and finances. He's taking only $6M this year and differing another $17M. He left $20-25M to sign where he did.

What do we do NOW?

The prospect capital is there to bring in a quality SP for the staff. Is that a #2-3 arm and white exactly I don't know. To say there are no possibilities is silly as we have and do see guys move.

What if there is another Odorizzi type trade we aren't even thinking about that will pay off just as well?

Personally, I'm hoping Donaldson is serious, not playing us, and comes on board. Sign a Wood or Walker for depth. Then go out and cash in a handful of prospect chips, or include Rosario if that is to be, and get that trade arm the FO and Johnson like.

 

There are no FA possibilities left....I think that's what people mean when they say there is nothing left.

 

Nearly all the trade candidates are only signed for 1-2 years, so the TWins payroll guys should like that. Of course, that means you are in teh same position again next year, needing 1-3 starting pitchers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Many here speak as if it’s a fact that wining the WS requires big off-season moves and that building a WS winner requires paying up for elite FAs or trading away top prospects. I keep hearing you have to do X. Yet, I have seen no examples where X led to a WS win. So, I looked back. There have been two teams with below average revenue that have won the WS in the past 15 years. They are the 2005 CWS and the 2015 Royals.

 

What did those teams add/subtract the off-season via free agency or trades before winning the WS? How were their rosters constructed?

 

2015 Royals

Who did they add or subtract through FA or trade? They lost their best SP to free agency. KC also lost one of their best position players / DH (Butler) They added Edwin Volquez who received $2/20M. He would probably be referred to as a dumpster dive here. They also added Kendrys Morales. A good pick-up but hardly a big contract at 2yrs/15.5M. Their other add was Alex Rios on a 1yr deal. He has .3 WAR the previous year and negative WAR in 2015.

 

They did not have any elite SPs to start the year. The got 2.7 WAR from Volquez and 2.7 WAR for from Ventura who really was not what we would call established going into 2015. They added Cueto and Zobrist at the deadline. Cueto was mediocre during the remainder of the regular season. He was pretty decent in the playoffs but certainly not the difference in them winning the series 4-1. Zobrist was good addition during the regular season and the playoffs.

 

KCs position players led the way. Cain was their best player and he was acquired by trading away Greinke. Escobar also came over in that trade. Their other top position players were Mustakis / Hosmer and Gordon. All three were acquired through the draft.

This team was built through the draft and by trading away an elite player. They actually lost their best SP and replaced him with a SP that did not have nearly the credentials of Shields.

 

2005 CWS

The CWS traded away by far their best player (Carlos Lee) the off-season before winning. He had 5.5 WAR in 2004. The did get Scott Posednak in that deal who produced 1.9 WAR. The CWS also signed Jermaine Dye to a 5yr/$36.5M deal. However, Dye had not been over 2.0 WAR in the previous 4 years. He had 2.2 WAR in 2005. The also add AJ Perzinski. He had 1.6 WAR. Not insignificant but certainly not a difference maker.

 

The 2005 CWS won behind a good pitching staff. Buhrle led who they drafted led the staff. Garcia and Garland were traded for in previous years. They gave up a decent player for Garcia and nothing for Garland. They both simply had great years but this staff had no virtually no impact from FAs and they did not give up top prospects.

 

Their best position players were Konerko / Rowand and Iguchi. They acquired Konerko in 1998 by trading away Mike Cameron when Konerko had a ½ season of MLB experience. Rowand was drafted by the CWS. Iguchi was acquired as a FA for 3yrs/7.95M.

 

Like KC, the CWS lost an elite player and did not add any elite players the off-season before winning the WS. Their roster construction was not influenced by big FA signings or players acquired for top prospects.

If your sample size is two teams, I think the conclusion has to be there is no blueprint, rather than there is only a narrow one the Twins must follow.

 

And even within that two team sample, you're doing some big minimization by saying that the pitcher who threw 8 innings of 2-hit ball in the decisive game 5 of the ALDS wasn't a "difference maker" in his team's championship run. (Not to mention his complete game 2 hitter in game 2 of the World Series, the night after his team had to use their bullpen for 8 innings.) I realize it doesn't fit your narrative, but those spots and performances were precisely why his team paid to acquire him in trade, not for his August and September regular season (they had an 8 game division lead at the time of the trade deadline). I am sure his team was very happy with the results of that aggressive move.

[DocBauer]

There are no FA possibilities left....I think that's what people mean when they say there is nothing left.

 

Nearly all the trade candidates are only signed for 1-2 years, so the TWins payroll guys should like that. Of course, that means you are in teh same position again next year, needing 1-3 starting pitchers.

I also prefer more than 1-2yrs. Everyone should. Which makes we wonder all the more about an "under the wire" acquisition like Odorizzi was. I fully confess the FO is a hell of a lot smarter than I am on this.

 

Not crazy about a 1yr unless it comes "cheap" with at least some hope of an extension. 2yr doesn't bother me so much.

 

IMO, Odorizzi is a strong extension possibility. Once we remove the humongous contracts of Cole and Strasburg, his 2020 QO deal of $17.8M is pretty much in line. Adding 2-3yrs for something close to that should be expected and warranted and affordable. And he has already stated he'd like to stay.

[Battle ur tail off]

Thanks for demonstrating my point by ignoring my point. I just demonstrated the only WS winning teams with a similar profile won the WS without a big move so why do you jump to "sell off the core". Many here are unwilling to demonstrate any objectivity. Objectivity requires looking at the facts. There has not been a WS winner build in the manner many people here insist is absolutely required. The fact is that FAs in general have a very poor track record. The fact is that successful teams with less than league average revenue have not followed the practices that some here insist are required for success. Show me some evidence. That's not to say we should not sign FAs or make trades but to loose your mind because the FO demonstrates some discipline is not exactly advanced critical thinking.

 

Let's examine some facts. Let's look at evidence to support conclusions or even support our theories. It would reduce the amount of angst here. We can assume we know more than the FO or we can attempt to understand what they know that we don't. We can continue to believe we should follow practices applied by teams with $100M or $200M or $300M in revenue or we can examine how to be successful with the financial resource available to the MN Twins.

So basically what you are saying is that middle market teams can’t or shouldn’t try to win by bringing in top players or trading for them?

 

91 Twins don’t get a World Series win without making the largest pitching signing at that time in their history.

 

I don’t feel buying players all the time or trading away your prospects is the right approach for a team in our type of market. Of course they have to build mostly from within. But this squad right now is in a unique spot.

 

And I don’t think it is crazy talk for people to be asking them for a major move or 2. That is not building a team through free agency and trades, nor is it “going all in”. It is supplementing a joke grown roster that is lacking in one specific area.

[DocBauer]

So basically what you are saying is that middle market teams can’t or shouldn’t try to win by bringing in top players or trading for them?

91 Twins don’t get a World Series win without making the largest pitching signing at that time in their history.

I don’t feel buying players all the time or trading away your prospects is the right approach for a team in our type of market. Of course they have to build mostly from within. But this squad right now is in a unique spot.

And I don’t think it is crazy talk for people to be asking them for a major move or 2. That is not building a team through free agency and trades, nor is it “going all in”. It is supplementing a joke grown roster that is lacking in one specific area.

I liked your points very much, even though I'm not joining the ongoing debate. I ad to laugh at your typo of "joke grown roster" at the end. I've made a few crazy typos or had weird auto corrects at times but this one made me chuckle.

 

Like you, and most of us I think, home grown is always best. Even the last Yankees dynasty...and I DESPISE giving them credit of any sort...was built on a core of home grown talent. I also believe FA is a tool to augment your roster, not build it. Marwin and Cruz are great examples of that, for us, last season. While this FO has absolutely not ignored the FA route, Castro, Marwin, Cruz and Now Clippard, etc, they've done it smartly. They've also made some signings that were basically waiver wire in Cron and Pineda that were smart.

 

But you are 100% correct that the Twins, HERE AND NOW, are in a unique position. People can call my an apolgist if they choose to do so, but I honestly believe the FO made a real offer to Wheeler...maybe just a 1st offer...but were simply told "no thank you" early on. There have not only been various reports of such, which I find confounding for a 101 win team playing in one of the best ballparks in all of baseball but also a team that is mostly young and on the rise, but he also turned down a better offer to pitch for a far "worse" team in the White Sox. Bumgarner went out and orchestrated his own special deal with Arizona.

 

So what are the Twins to do in those situations? Understand, none of this is pointed at you, just me pointing out the reality of the situation.

 

There is so much clamoring about the Twins missing, or being stingy, but these two examples are real, and seem to be treated as sour grapes and looking for someone to point fingers at. Right now, the Twins continue to look to add. The are one of only two teams...ONE of ONLY TWO TEAMS...who have made a 4yr offer to Donaldson. Unfortunately, speculation is the Braves are his preferred destination and have a sort of "right of first refusal" at their disposal.

 

Despite mass WANT to see something happen, I'm not overly disappointed in not topping offers for Ryu. He COULD surprise us all. And he is very good when available. But odds and past history would lend percentages WAY to the disappointment side of things. You are absolutely right to reference Morris as a big FA signing at the time in '91, though IIRC, he wasn't exactly speculated as being the ACE performer he turned out to be, (more life left in the arm than some gave him credit for). I would go back further to remind that Blyleven was brought back for the first WS team via trade.

 

I really wish we could all concentrate on tomorrow, and not what didn't happen, for various reasons. Seems we're kicking rocks at this point. As you accurately state, the Twins are in a unique position right now. And i apologize after 17+ pages of so much debate and frustration being vented if I missed an opinion, but what would you do at this point?

[nick_hansen]

I liked your points very much, even though I'm not joining the ongoing debate. I ad to laugh at your typo of "joke grown roster" at the end. I've made a few crazy typos or had weird auto corrects at times but this one made me chuckle.

Like you, and most of us I think, home grown is always best. Even the last Yankees dynasty...and I DESPISE giving them credit of any sort...was built on a core of home grown talent. I also believe FA is a tool to augment your roster, not build it. Marwin and Cruz are great examples of that, for us, last season. While this FO has absolutely not ignored the FA route, Castro, Marwin, Cruz and Now Clippard, etc, they've done it smartly. They've also made some signings that were basically waiver wire in Cron and Pineda that were smart.

But you are 100% correct that the Twins, HERE AND NOW, are in a unique position. People can call my an apolgist if they choose to do so, but I honestly believe the FO made a real offer to Wheeler...maybe just a 1st offer...but were simply told "no thank you" early on. There have not only been various reports of such, which I find confounding for a 101 win team playing in one of the best ballparks in all of baseball but also a team that is mostly young and on the rise, but he also turned down a better offer to pitch for a far "worse" team in the White Sox. Bumgarner went out and orchestrated his own special deal with Arizona.

So what are the Twins to do in those situations? Understand, none of this is pointed at you, just me pointing out the reality of the situation.

There is so much clamoring about the Twins missing, or being stingy, but these two examples are real, and seem to be treated as sour grapes and looking for someone to point fingers at. Right now, the Twins continue to look to add. The are one of only two teams...ONE of ONLY TWO TEAMS...who have made a 4yr offer to Donaldson. Unfortunately, speculation is the Braves are his preferred destination and have a sort of "right of first refusal" at their disposal.

Despite mass WANT to see something happen, I'm not overly disappointed in not topping offers for Ryu. He COULD surprise us all. And he is very good when available. But odds and past history would lend percentages WAY to the disappointment side of things. You are absolutely right to reference Morris as a big FA signing at the time in '91, though IIRC, he wasn't exactly speculated as being the ACE performer he turned out to be, (more life left in the arm than some gave him credit for). I would go back further to remind that Blyleven was brought back for the first WS team via trade.

I really wish we could all concentrate on tomorrow, and not what didn't happen, for various reasons. Seems we're kicking rocks at this point. As you accurately state, the Twins are in a unique position right now. And i apologize after 17+ pages of so much debate and frustration being vented if I missed an opinion, but what would you do at this point?

 

So how bout this? All of us Twins fans take a 2-1/2 month break and if very little has changed, it is ok for us to voice our frustrations .

[Jham]

we're coming off a 100 win season and you want to SELL???

Teams can be buyers and sellers at the same time. If we use our farm system to trade for help, replenishing the stock would be nice. Letting players walk for nothing is a risk. As currently constructed the pitching gives us little chance of advancing in the playoffs. Neither are expendable, per se, but I'm not sure how much better either of them will be compared to their replacement. If we traded Cruz, added Donaldson and brought up Kiriloff for example. Or we traded Odo and trusted Thorpe or Graterol before trading for Chris Archer. I don't think we're in position to try to add to make a run this year. And next year's rotation may have even more question marks. I'd like to avoid our current pitching situation going forward as much as possible.

[Major League Ready]

 

I think you’re misunderstanding what I’m saying here. I want us to have a team made up primarily of homegrown talent. Last year, we saw such great development from our position players and our pen. However, our rotation is in tough shape and it needs to be addressed immediately if we are to have any chance at breaking the cycle of getting embarrassed in the playoffs. Right now, we don’t really have much higher-end starting pitching that will be ready in 2020, let alone 2021. We have plenty of financial flexibility through wise contract management by the FO, but this is really the time to set us up to take the next step. I’m not talking about doing anything crazy, but right now we should be spending $140M+ (Around half of overall revenues). I’m going to be patient and give these guys till ST to make a move, but if they can’t get it done or decide to stand pat and go into this season with a payroll closer to $100M (and a roster similar to last yr), that is just not an acceptable outcome IMO.

 

I don't disagree. You (and others) are refusing to acknowledge what I am saying. Put another way, you are refusing to look at hard fact or history or whatever you want to call it. You can't say a big FA signing is essential when it has not been dome in the past 20 years and perhaps more. I didn't go back any further.. If this type of roster construction is necessary, there would be examples of teams with below average revenue winning via this practice. The opposite is true. The teams that have won or even made it to the WS improved from within. The CWS traded away their best position player it what ended up to be a bad trade for several years to come and the Royals lost the Elite SP to free agency the year before the won. Yes, the made it their the year before as a WC team but they obvious improved from within and their improvement came in a deadline deal.

 

Some of you are also missing the point that it does not make sense to freak out that the FO did not pull the trigger on Wheeler / Bumgarner or Ryu. FAs acquisitions with this profile have been very poor. I have put up that history previously. I am not going to bother again because it is obviously just ignored. Yes, my off-season plan included Wheeler at 5/100. The difference in my acceptance of not getting him is that I don't just ignore he wanted to go somewhere else. I have part of recruiting high-end talent. Sure I could have just offered them whatever it takes but those here who suggest that just cant accept is not a practice that facilitates success and I guarantee you they have never been responsible for the bottom line. I have also been recruited for very attractive positions and declined because I preferred to stay near family.

 

So, in case some of you still do not understand my point, its not that I would not have signed Wheeler at 5/100 as predicted or even 5/120. I just don't think it's worth freaking out over given the fact he just did not want to be here and it does not make sense to pay whatever it takes when you are already dealing with a practice that fails more than it succeeds. 

 

At this point I would maker a trade provided the cost is not absolutely nuts or I might even make two trades (if possible) for comeback candidates like Archer. A rental at the deadline is also a possibility.

[ewen21]

What's your plan? Not what shouldn't they do, what should they do, now that they did not sign a FA, which when the off season started, you were for?

The fact that you and others keep asking him “what’s your plan?” all but acknowledges his analysis is water tight.

 

Ryu is not a good play and we aren’t an attractive landing place for him. I figured Seattle, Houston and Toronto had a shot because all areas have fairly large Asian communities and that gives those places an advantage. Same with teams on the coasts with money. No doubt it would have taken more than what Toronto have him and that to me is insane.

 

Over 125 innings pitched once in the last five seasons. Two seasons over 90 innings pitched in the last five seasons. He turns 33, he has a variety of injuries on his resume and he’s somewhat overweight. If he were able to pitch more than 100 innings the next two years I would be stunned. What player suddenly became durable at 33? Show me examples of a similar career trajectory because in over 45 years of following baseball nothing comes to mind.

 

And out curiously, what is your plan? Aside from throwing crazy money at free agent pitching?

[FritzDahmus]

 

Jacoby Ellsbury

Got me on that one. But I'll stick by my overall point. Which was -- They do a very good job spending their money.

[ewen21]

I don't disagree. You (and others) are refusing to acknowledge what I am saying. Put another way, you are refusing to look at hard fact or history or whatever you want to call it. You can't say a big FA signing is essential when it has not been dome in the past 20 years and perhaps more. I didn't go back any further.. If this type of roster construction is necessary, there would be examples of teams with below average revenue winning via this practice. The opposite is true. The teams that have won or even made it to the WS improved from within. The CWS traded away their best position player it what ended up to be a bad trade for several years to come and the Royals lost the Elite SP to free agency the year before the won. Yes, the made it their the year before as a WC team but they obvious improved from within and their improvement came in a deadline deal.

 

Some of you are also missing the point that it does not make sense to freak out that the FO did not pull the trigger on Wheeler / Bumgarner or Ryu. FAs acquisitions with this profile have been very poor. I have put up that history previously. I am not going to bother again because it is obviously just ignored. Yes, my off-season plan included Wheeler at 5/100. The difference in my acceptance of not getting him is that I don't just ignore he wanted to go somewhere else. I have part of recruiting high-end talent. Sure I could have just offered them whatever it takes but those here who suggest that just cant accept is not a practice that facilitates success and I guarantee you they have never been responsible for the bottom line. I have also been recruited for very attractive positions and declined because I preferred to stay near family.

 

So, in case some of you still do not understand my point, its not that I would not have signed Wheeler at 5/100 as predicted or even 5/120. I just don't think it's worth freaking out over given the fact he just did not want to be here and it does not make sense to pay whatever it takes when you are already dealing with a practice that fails more than it succeeds.

 

At this point I would maker a trade provided the cost is not absolutely nuts or I might even make two trades (if possible) for comeback candidates like Archer. A rental at the deadline is also a possibility.

I want express my appreciation for what you’ve done. It’s the holidays and I’ve been hobbled by the flu.

 

You keep providing facts and those who don’t like seeing that keep asking you “what’s the plan”

 

They can’t even acknowledge that what you’re saying makes sense because it’s rooted in reality. Arguments based in emotion can’t hold up to what you’ve presented and that is all they have: EMOTION.

 

I would have liked to see that kind of emotion after the three-and-out in October. A lot of people are more bent out of shape by us not signing FAs we had little chance getting than they were losing to the Yankees in a three and out. And you know what? We would have lost that series regardless of who was towing the rubber since we barely scored 2 runs per game.

 

 

It’s rather hard for me to rip these GMs after last winter. They made a bunch of shrewd moves and even put a promising young manager at the helm. However, I’m starting to wonder about him. He created a stress free culture that worked a treat during the season. As soon as the bright lights came out the cheeks clenched up tight as could be—just like always. Signing Ryu won’t change that. There is actually a strong chance he doesn’t even make it through the next season let alone that contract. Not given what he’s done in the recent past.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Put another way, you are refusing to look at hard fact or history

A two team sample, based on your own chosen parameters, isn't the "hard fact of history", it's trivia.

 

Especially when you do things within that trivial sample like minimize the contributions of Cueto, or exclude the 2014 Royals just because they lost game 7 of the World Series (as if that single game's result should have any effect of the Twins decision-making in 2019).

 

We get it, you clearly believe the Twins don't need to make an aggressive signing or trade to win the World Series. There is nothing wrong with that opinion. But there is also nothing wrong with the opinion that a smart aggressive move could help the team.

 

So let's re-focus the discussion as a friendly exchange of opinions and ideas, and less on using trivia as a weapon to invalidate other opinions. The latter just isn't fun (and that's a fact! ).

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would have liked to see that kind of emotion after the three-and-out in October. A lot of people are more bent out of shape by us not signing FAs we had little chance getting than they were losing to the Yankees in a three and out. And you know what? We would have lost that series regardless of who was towing the rubber since we barely scored 2 runs per game.

 

So in the same paragraph, you lay out a response you'd like to see from other posters, and then you preemptively dismiss it?

 

Like I just said above, let's focus more on exchanging our own ideas and less on inventing reasons to invalidate others.

 

(And if you truly want to read emotional reactions to our playoff loss, the October TD archives are available to you. You shouldn't expect or encourage such posts in a December thread about a separate topic.)

[Major League Ready]

 

A two team sample, based on your own chosen parameters, isn't the "hard fact of history", it's trivia.

Especially when you do things within that trivial sample like minimize the contributions of Cueto, or exclude the 2014 Royals just because they lost game 7 of the World Series (as if that single game's result should have any effect of the Twins decision-making in 2019).

We get it, you clearly believe the Twins don't need to make an aggressive signing or trade to win the World Series. There is nothing wrong with that opinion. But there is also nothing wrong with the opinion that a smart aggressive move could help the team.

So let's re-focus the discussion as a friendly exchange of opinions and ideas, and less on using trivia as a weapon to invalidate other opinions. The latter just isn't fun (and that's a fact! ).

 

Sorry but the sample size of teams was every team in the league for the last 20 years. The result (not the sample size) was two teams. There were 4 if you include the Rays and Royals  for making it to the WS and losing and I did acknowledge the 2014 Royals. It's just hard to conclude the trade for Schields put them over the top when the won the year losing him.  I did not bother to include the Rays because I knew they did not sign any big FAs.

 

I don't find it "friendly" to insist the FO is either cheap or incompetent. If have no problem with the presentation of facts that support a mistake or bad practice. However, unsupported opinion should be tempered and not presented in the form of other people (the FO or ownership) must be cheap or incompetent.

 

[USAFChief]

Sorry but the sample size of what teams that achieved the result sought here was every team in the league for the last 20 years. The result (not the sample size) was two teams. There were 4 if you include the Rays and Royals for making it to the WS and losing and I did acknowledge the 2014 Royals. It's just hard to conclude the trade for Schields put them over the top when the won the year losing him. I did not bother to include the Rays because I knew they did not sign any big FAs.

 

I don't find it "friendly" to insist the FO is either cheap or incompetent. If have no problem with the presentation of facts that support a mistake or bad practice. However, unsupported opinion should be tempered and not presented in the form of other people (the FO or ownership) must be cheap or incompetent.

no, your original sample size came from your own self designed parameters of "below average revenue teams that won the WS over the last 15 years."

 

If you truly want to examine the "history" you would look at "teams who won at least 95 games but failed in the post season, lost 2 of their 5 starters, and added strong starting pitching the next off season."

 

Because that's what those of us who wanted to do just that are disappointed about. The Twins needed it, and they failed at it.

 

The rest of your "sample size" is just noise. Twins revenues...noise. they have ample revenues to sign any FA on the market. Talk of revenues is just a diversionary tactic to let you talk about money, for the 1000th time. It has nothing to do with winning a WS, or the Twins strengths or weaknesses.

 

Nor does your claimed business history, with which you attempt to browbeat other posters. That has zero relevance either. So speaking as a mod, cease and desist that tactic.

[Marcusesm]

 

It's ~$101 now. They throw $7-8 million at one of the remaining pitchers in the bargain bin and go into the season with a $109 million payroll. A cut of about $16 million from 2019.

 

Then they'll say, "we're saving payroll to make some big mid-season trades." Meanwhile, the Pohlad's buy another mansion - http://www.citypages.com/arts/wanna-buy-a-pohlad-bros-hotel-looking-edina-mansion/476000353

[Major League Ready]

 

no, your original sample size came from your own self designed parameters of "below average revenue teams that won the WS over the last 15 years."

If you truly want to examine the "history" you would look at "teams who won at least 95 games but failed in the post season, lost 2 of their 5 starters, and added strong starting pitching the next off season."

Because that's what those of us who wanted to do just that are disappointed about. The Twins needed it, and they failed at it.

The rest of your "sample size" is just noise. Twins revenues...noise. they have ample revenues to sign any FA on the market. Talk of revenues is just a diversionary tactic to let you talk about money, for the 1000th time. It has nothing to do with winning a WS, or the Twins strengths or weaknesses.

Nor does your claimed business history, with which you attempt to browbeat other posters. That has zero relevance either. So speaking as a mod, cease and desist that tactic.

 

The fact is that two (13.3%) of WS winners have been teams with below average revenue. There is no arguing there is a strong correlation between revenue and winning. That correlation is getting stronger. Over the past 30 years, there were nine (30%). Why exactly this occurred would be interesting debate but there is no debate revenue has substantial influence on winning the WS. This is FACT not opinion.

 

The fact that the teams has payroll capacity to sign a given FA has little significance in the determination if that investment is an effective means to achieve success. This is where the FO and fans are going to disagree often. Fans like to assume they have the information and skill set / experience to possess a superior understanding of what needs to be done. It’s a product of fanaticism.

[Mike Sixel]

The fact is that two (13.3%) of WS winners have been teams with below average revenue. There is no arguing there is a strong correlation between revenue and winning. That correlation is getting stronger. Over the past 30 years, there were nine (30%). Why exactly this occurred would be interesting debate but there is no debate revenue has substantial influence on winning the WS. This is FACT not opinion.

 

The fact that the teams has payroll capacity to sign a given FA has little significance in the determination if that investment is an effective means to achieve success. This is where the FO and fans are going to disagree often. Fans like to assume they have the information and skill set / experience to possess a superior understanding of what needs to be done. It’s a product of fanaticism.

So, they should just realize they don't have a realistic shot and sell to a team that can generate more revenue?

 

People have acknowledged over and over that they cannot spend like the big revenue teams. You said they should sign a good free agent earlier this year, they had the money. What should they do now?

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I liked your points very much, even though I'm not joining the ongoing debate. I ad to laugh at your typo of "joke grown roster" at the end. I've made a few crazy typos or had weird auto corrects at times but this one made me chuckle.

Like you, and most of us I think, home grown is always best. Even the last Yankees dynasty...and I DESPISE giving them credit of any sort...was built on a core of home grown talent. I also believe FA is a tool to augment your roster, not build it. Marwin and Cruz are great examples of that, for us, last season. While this FO has absolutely not ignored the FA route, Castro, Marwin, Cruz and Now Clippard, etc, they've done it smartly. They've also made some signings that were basically waiver wire in Cron and Pineda that were smart.

But you are 100% correct that the Twins, HERE AND NOW, are in a unique position. People can call my an apolgist if they choose to do so, but I honestly believe the FO made a real offer to Wheeler...maybe just a 1st offer...but were simply told "no thank you" early on. There have not only been various reports of such, which I find confounding for a 101 win team playing in one of the best ballparks in all of baseball but also a team that is mostly young and on the rise, but he also turned down a better offer to pitch for a far "worse" team in the White Sox. Bumgarner went out and orchestrated his own special deal with Arizona.

So what are the Twins to do in those situations? Understand, none of this is pointed at you, just me pointing out the reality of the situation.

There is so much clamoring about the Twins missing, or being stingy, but these two examples are real, and seem to be treated as sour grapes and looking for someone to point fingers at. Right now, the Twins continue to look to add. The are one of only two teams...ONE of ONLY TWO TEAMS...who have made a 4yr offer to Donaldson. Unfortunately, speculation is the Braves are his preferred destination and have a sort of "right of first refusal" at their disposal.

Despite mass WANT to see something happen, I'm not overly disappointed in not topping offers for Ryu. He COULD surprise us all. And he is very good when available. But odds and past history would lend percentages WAY to the disappointment side of things. You are absolutely right to reference Morris as a big FA signing at the time in '91, though IIRC, he wasn't exactly speculated as being the ACE performer he turned out to be, (more life left in the arm than some gave him credit for). I would go back further to remind that Blyleven was brought back for the first WS team via trade.

I really wish we could all concentrate on tomorrow, and not what didn't happen, for various reasons. Seems we're kicking rocks at this point. As you accurately state, the Twins are in a unique position right now. And i apologize after 17+ pages of so much debate and frustration being vented if I missed an opinion, but what would you do at this point?

 

Great post, thank you. 

 

I know we aren't wanting to talk about the past, but I think it was almost imperative the Twins had to sign one of Wheeler, Madbum, Ryu or Keuchel. I think they really missed a chance to bring in a #2-3 type pitcher for nothing more than money they had available to spend. 

 

I'm not really sure what they should do at this point? I honestly don't think it's worth trading guys like Lewis, Graterol, Kiriloff for marginal help like Jon Gray, Robbie Ray or Mathew Boyd. I think you had guys like this available in free agency that wouldn't have cost you any of your prospects. Now, if you can put a package together that protects these top guys, then by all means, bring in those arms. 

 

I think at this point, they should dumpster dive for a #5 starter, then make another trade for a guy that costs us 1-2 guys outside our top ten for another 4-5 type guy. One of Miami's guys, Chris Archer, David Price, etc. Unless, there is real top end pitching out there that can be had by using some of our top 5 guys. 

 

By real top end pitching, I mean Degrom, Syndergaard, Clevinger, Eduardo Rodriguez, etc..

 

 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

So, they should just realize they don't have a realistic shot and sell to a team that can generate more revenue?

People have acknowledged over and over that they cannot spend like the big revenue teams. You said they should sign a good free agent earlier this year, they had the money. What should they do now?

 

This is the part I don't understand either by that argument. What it is saying, is basically, we have no shot because we are mid market. 

 

If these large market teams are the ones winning, then shouldn't the goal be to act more like them when you can? Obviously you can't all the time, but there are rare circumstances when you've done a GREAT job putting yourself in a position to be able to do so. 

 

Positions like having almost a full roster under the age of 30 producing at a high level getting paid peanuts.