Front Page: Ryu To Sign with Toronto. Now What?

[SmellEm]

People need to stop comparing the Bumgarner and Wheeler situations as they really aren’t the same at all. It looks like Bumgarner really did want to go to Arizona and took significantly less money to do so basically forcing Arizona to sign him. Obviously the Twins probably weren’t going to get him with any sort of reasonable offer. But he is also pretty clearly an exception as most free agents aren’t going to leave that much money on the table.

 

But Wheeler’s situation was completely different. As far as we know he turned down a slightly higher offer from the White Sox to sign with Philadelphia because he preferred the location. Obviously if a player has multiple similar offers where the money is pretty similar, other factors are going to come into play. But we have no idea if he would have signed with the Twins if they made a similar offer because they didn’t. All we know is that he preferred the Phillies over the White Sox when the money was basically the same. There is no reason to think he wouldn’t have seriously considered the Twins if they truly made the best offer.

[nick_hansen]

we already know Bumgarner SAID he turned down larger offers.

 

Meaning what? That MadBum is making it up? I’m willing to reasonably believe that we didn’t really have a shot with him and that with a strong offer we could’ve had a shot with Wheeler.

[ewen21]

we already know Bumgarner SAID he turned down larger offers.

The information is out there if you’re interested. YES Bumgarner SAID he left money on the table.

 

http://m.startribune.com/d-backs-finalize-bumgarner-s-85-million-5-year-deal/566284052/

 

If you disagree with the quote then you do t trust his word. What exactly would he tell a lie for after he signed. What is the point?

 

Do a Google search “Madison Bumgarner left money on the table” and you will find it. It’s up to you to do that if you really want to know. Please do it because it would save a lot of unnecessary banter.

 

If you read it then you need to substantiate your claim that it’s a lie and he never really meant it.

[ChiefsKid]

We already know Bumgarner turned down larger offers to go to Arizona, because he specifically wanted to live and work there. We also know Wheeler turned down slightly more money from the White Sox.

Why would they take even less to play in a spot that apparently wasn’t all that desirable to either of them?

 

Sometimes players might choose to go elsewhere because they legitimately wanted to go there. Some of it is uncontrollable. Once or twice, sure. I'll buy that.

But when it happens at every single turn, it starts to become an issue of the common denominator. The Twins just aren't in the running for "second tier" FA pitchers.

 

The Twins being unwilling to include a 5th year in the offer to Bumgarner is the reason I'm pretty sour about it. And if I was a betting man, I would venture to say they lowballed the Ryu offer as well.

There is zero indication the Twins offered even what Arizona did (the "discount"). The fact that Wheeler passed on an offer higher than the one he took is completely irrelevant to the fact that the Twins didn't make a competitive offer.

[prouster]

we already know Bumgarner SAID he turned down larger offers.

Why on earth would he lie about that?

[prouster]

Sometimes players might choose to go elsewhere because they legitimately wanted to go there. Some of it is uncontrollable. Once or twice, sure. I'll buy that. But when it happens at every single turn, it starts to become an issue of the common denominator. The Twins just aren't in the running for "second tier" FA pitchers. The Twins being unwilling to include a 5th year in the offer to Bumgarner is the reason I'm pretty sour about it. And if I was a betting man, I would venture to say they lowballed the Ryu offer as well. There is zero indication the Twins offered even what Arizona did (the "discount"). The fact that Wheeler passed on an offer higher than the one he took is completely irrelevant to the fact that the Twins didn't make a competitive offer.

I think you’re responding to the wrong person. I’m not the one saying the twins could have had either for less money over fewer years.

[USAFChief]

The information is out there if you’re interested. YES Bumgarner SAID he left money on the table.

 

http://m.startribune.com/d-backs-finalize-bumgarner-s-85-million-5-year-deal/566284052/

 

If you disagree with the quote then you do t trust his word. What exactly would he tell a lie for after he signed. What is the point?

 

Do a Google search “Madison Bumgarner left money on the table” and you will find it. It’s up to you to do that if you really want to know. Please do it because it would save a lot of unnecessary banter.

 

If you read it then you need to substantiate your claim that it’s a lie and he never really meant it.

I didn't say it's a lie.

 

I said the only thing we know for sure is what Bumgarner said.

 

And that's true. Its not difficult to believe he actually did, it's also not difficult to understand why he and/or his agent would say that, even if not true.

[ewen21]

Meaning what? That MadBum is making it up? I’m willing to reasonably believe that we didn’t really have a shot with him and that with a strong offer we could’ve had a shot with Wheeler.

He has played against Arizona for years and has had ample time to familiarize himself with all there is to offer in that market. Who is anyone here to believe he’s making up that he had a desire to play there? The idea that we aren’t supposed to take him at his word on this on is silly. What exactly did he say that is suspect or suspicious?

 

I’m not going to hear this..

“Well players have different reasons to...” baloney

[ChiefsKid]

I think you’re responding to the wrong person. I’m not the one saying the twins could have had either for less money over fewer years.

 

Yes. Wrong reply.

Apologies.

[ewen21]

I didn't say it's a lie.

 

I said the only thing we know for sure is what Bumgarner said.

 

And that's true. Its not difficult to believe he actually did, it's also not difficult to understand why he and/or his agent would say that, even if not true.

You said “do we know he SAID” what he said. You keep wondering why he said that but it’s out there for you to read. He likes Arizona. He likes the climate, the landscape, the ballclub , the vibe. Simple as that.....but not for you.

 

Why does it need to be anything more than that? Can’t the fact that he likes it there be enough? Please explain what motive he’s had to say that beyond simply being sincere about it? I’m not the only one wondering, Chief.

[USAFChief]

You said “do we know he SAID” what he said.

No, I didn't.

[ewen21]

No, I didn't.

Then you’re good.

[ewen21]

I didn't say it's a lie.

 

I said the only thing we know for sure is what Bumgarner said.

 

And that's true. Its not difficult to believe he actually did, it's also not difficult to understand why he and/or his agent would say that, even if not true.

Even if not true.

 

Maybe you’re not good with what he said. Help me out and give me your theory as to why you would end all that with “even if not true” when you have no knowledge beyond what everyone knows. And when you tell us you don’t believe he’s lying.

[Squirrel]

Moderator warning: please stop this back and forth about Bumgarner. The thread topic is ‘What now?’ Please move forward and past what we didn’t get and get back to topic of this thread.

[Jham]

I think we need to at least consider shopping both Odorizzi and especially Cruz. They're both exploring contracts. If they can return either a blue chip prospect or controllable pitching I think you have to consider it at least at the trade deadline. I do not think Cruz's wrist or Odo's career homerun and walk rates will allow replication of last year.

 

Other than that, I think we start airing through our expansion candidates and use the FA money to lock up who we want to keep, and trade those we don't want or who don't intend to re-sign.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I'll throw another name out for trade, Touki Tousaint of Atlanta. Young, talented, high upside and buried in Atlanta's depth chart.

[Mike Sixel]

I think we need to at least consider shopping both Odorizzi and especially Cruz. They're both exploring contracts. If they can return either a blue chip prospect or controllable pitching I think you have to consider it at least at the trade deadline. I do not think Cruz's wrist or Odo's career homerun and walk rates will allow replication of last year.

 

Other than that, I think we start airing through our expansion candidates and use the FA money to lock up who we want to keep, and trade those we don't want or who don't intend to re-sign.

Who trades controllable pitching for a pitcher with one year left? And if they trade him for a prospect, they should sell the team.

[Jham]

Who trades controllable pitching for a pitcher with one year left? And if they trade him for a prospect, they should sell the team.

Sure, you say that now. In July if we're in 3rd place and 4 games under .500? If we are in contention, the rotation presumably would be holding up. We have a very low chance of retaining odorizzi who should be one of the hottest commodities in FA next season. Letting him and Cruz walk for nothing is a risk.

 

But yes, return expectations should be tempered. Also I included Cruz. Cruz for controllable pitching, Odorizzi for near-ready pitching prospects. I also agree that Jim and co. should sell the team.

[Mike Sixel]

Sure, you say that now. In July if we're in 3rd place and 4 games under .500? If we are in contention, the rotation presumably would be holding up. We have a very low chance of retaining odorizzi who should be one of the hottest commodities in FA next season. Letting him and Cruz walk for nothing is a risk.

But yes, return expectations should be tempered. Also I included Cruz. Cruz for controllable pitching, Odorizzi for near-ready pitching prospects. I also agree that Jim and co. should sell the team.

We aren't in July. If they are out of it in July, then sell

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm firmly of the belief that the higher end FAs aren't interested in coming to Minnesota *because* we didn't make competitive offers.
Not because of some minor issue like "its cold" or "the secondary income opportunity". They wont come here because the money just isn't here.

85% of the accepted offer for Wheeler, and weren't willing to give the extra year to Bumgarner, and who knows why they weren't even in the running for Ryu. My guess is they were not willing to add the 4th year again.

Just because 5/100 is the highest offer the Twins were willing to go and represents what would have been by far the highest FA contract in Twins history does not in and of itself make it a "competitive" offer.

 

Really, I am not firmly sure of any FO activity because we have tidbits and it's exceptionally poor analysis to come to any firm conclusion about anything when you have a fraction of the information and anything you do have is second hand. Over the years I have heard thousands of insinuations or assumptions about companies I worked with on some form of strategy. Those employees or other interested parties were right about 5% of the time. Get bent out of shape if you like but the odds are your conclusions is a product of bad or missing information.

[nick_hansen]

Really, I am not firmly sure of any FO activity because we have tidbits and it's exceptionally poor analysis to come to any firm conclusion about anything when you have a fraction of the information and anything you do have is second hand. Over the years I have heard thousands of insinuations or assumptions about companies I worked with on some form of strategy. Those employees or other interested parties were right about 5% of the time. Get bent out of shape if you like but the odds are your conclusions is a product of bad or missing information.

Ok, right, so the reporters close to the situation are wrong 95% of the time. Good to know it’s foolish for ppl to ever have an opinion about this team.

[USAFChief]

I think we need to at least consider shopping both Odorizzi and especially Cruz. They're both exploring contracts. If they can return either a blue chip prospect or controllable pitching I think you have to consider it at least at the trade deadline. I do not think Cruz's wrist or Odo's career homerun and walk rates will allow replication of last year.

 

Other than that, I think we start airing through our expansion candidates and use the FA money to lock up who we want to keep, and trade those we don't want or who don't intend to re-sign.

we're coming off a 100 win season and you want to SELL???

[Major League Ready]

Many here speak as if it’s a fact that wining the WS requires big off-season moves and that building a WS winner requires paying up for elite FAs or trading away top prospects. I keep hearing you have to do X. Yet, I have seen no examples where X led to a WS win. So, I looked back. There have been two teams with below average revenue that have won the WS in the past 15 years. They are the 2005 CWS and the 2015 Royals.

 

What did those teams add/subtract the off-season via free agency or trades before winning the WS? How were their rosters constructed?

 

2015 Royals

Who did they add or subtract through FA or trade? They lost their best SP to free agency. KC also lost one of their best position players / DH (Butler) They added Edwin Volquez who received $2/20M. He would probably be referred to as a dumpster dive here. They also added Kendrys Morales. A good pick-up but hardly a big contract at 2yrs/15.5M. Their other add was Alex Rios on a 1yr deal. He has .3 WAR the previous year and negative WAR in 2015.

 

They did not have any elite SPs to start the year. The got 2.7 WAR from Volquez and 2.7 WAR for from Ventura who really was not what we would call established going into 2015. They added Cueto and Zobrist at the deadline. Cueto was mediocre during the remainder of the regular season. He was pretty decent in the playoffs but certainly not the difference in them winning the series 4-1. Zobrist was good addition during the regular season and the playoffs.

 

KCs position players led the way. Cain was their best player and he was acquired by trading away Greinke. Escobar also came over in that trade. Their other top position players were Mustakis / Hosmer and Gordon. All three were acquired through the draft.
This team was built through the draft and by trading away an elite player. They actually lost their best SP and replaced him with a SP that did not have nearly the credentials of Shields.

 

2005 CWS
The CWS traded away by far their best player (Carlos Lee) the off-season before winning. He had 5.5 WAR in 2004. The did get Scott Posednak in that deal who produced 1.9 WAR. The CWS also signed Jermaine Dye to a 5yr/$36.5M deal. However, Dye had not been over 2.0 WAR in the previous 4 years. He had 2.2 WAR in 2005. The also add AJ Perzinski. He had 1.6 WAR. Not insignificant but certainly not a difference maker.

 

The 2005 CWS won behind a good pitching staff. Buhrle led who they drafted led the staff. Garcia and Garland were traded for in previous years. They gave up a decent player for Garcia and nothing for Garland. They both simply had great years but this staff had no virtually no impact from FAs and they did not give up top prospects.

 

Their best position players were Konerko / Rowand and Iguchi. They acquired Konerko in 1998 by trading away Mike Cameron when Konerko had a ½ season of MLB experience. Rowand was drafted by the CWS. Iguchi was acquired as a FA for 3yrs/7.95M.

 

Like KC, the CWS lost an elite player and did not add any elite players the off-season before winning the WS. Their roster construction was not influenced by big FA signings or players acquired for top prospects.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Sure, you say that now. In July if we're in 3rd place and 4 games under .500? If we are in contention, the rotation presumably would be holding up. We have a very low chance of retaining odorizzi who should be one of the hottest commodities in FA next season. Letting him and Cruz walk for nothing is a risk.

But yes, return expectations should be tempered. Also I included Cruz. Cruz for controllable pitching, Odorizzi for near-ready pitching prospects. I also agree that Jim and co. should sell the team.

 

The thing is if they are out of it in July and do actually trade these guys(which they definitely would explore), guess what you are getting back for them?

 

PTBNL? Some teams 40th rated prospect? Rental players that are old aren't worth anything. The only reason you would trade them IMO is to accomodate them playing on a winning team. The return is probably worth roughly a dominoes large pizza. 

 

If you are talking about trading them this offseason, that doesn't make much sense. They are on 1-year deals. They wouldn't have brought them back just to trade them. 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Many here speak as if it’s a fact that wining the WS requires big off-season moves and that building a WS winner requires paying up for elite FAs or trading away top prospects. Yet, I have seen no examples. So, I looked back. There have been two teams with below average revenue that have won the WS in the past 15 years. They are the 2005 CWS and the 2015 Royals.

 

What did those teams add/subtract the off-season via free agency or trades before winning the WS? How were their rosters constructed?

 

2015 Royals

Who did they add or subtract through FA or trade? They lost their best SP to free agency. KC also lost one of their best position players / DH (Butler) They added Edwin Volquez who received $2/20M. He would probably be referred to as a dumpster dive here. They also added Kendrys Morales. A good pick-up but hardly a big contract at 2yrs/15.5M. Their other add was Alex Rios on a 1yr deal. He has .3 WAR the previous year and negative WAR in 2015.

 

They did not have any elite SPs to start the year. The got 2.7 WAR from Volquez and 2.7 WAR for from Ventura who really was not what we would call established going into 2015. They added Cueto and Zobrist at the deadline. Cueto was mediocre during the remainder of the regular season. He was pretty decent in the playoffs but certainly not the difference in them winning the series 4-1. Zobrist was good addition during the regular season and the playoffs.

 

KCs position players led the way. Cain was their best player and he was acquired by trading away Greinke. Escobar also came over in that trade. Their other top position players were Mustakis / Hosmer and Gordon. All three were acquired through the draft.
This team was built through the draft and by trading away an elite player. They actually lost their best SP and replaced him with a SP that did not have nearly the credentials of Shields.

 

2005 CWS
The CWS traded away by far their best player (Carlos Lee) the off-season before winning. He had 5.5 WAR in 2004. The did get Scott Posednak in that deal who produced 1.9 WAR. The CWS also signed Jermaine Dye to a 5yr/$36.5M deal. However, Dye had not been over 2.0 WAR in the previous 4 years. He had 2.2 WAR in 2005. The also add AJ Perzinski. He had 1.6 WAR. Not insignificant but certainly not a difference maker.

 

The 2005 CWS won behind a good pitching staff. Buhrle led who they drafted led the staff. Garcia and Garland were traded for in previous years. They gave up a decent player for Garcia and nothing for Garland. They both simply had great years but this staff had no virtually no impact from FAs and they did not give up top prospects.

 

Their best position players were Konerko / Rowand and Iguchi. They acquired Konerko in 1998 by trading away Mike Cameron when Konerko had a ½ season of MLB experience. Rowand was drafted by the CWS. Iguchi was acquired as a FA for 3yrs/7.95M.

 

Like KC, the CWS lost an elite player and did not add any elite players the off-season before winning the WS. Their roster construction was not influenced by big FA signings or players acquired for top prospects.

 

Curios. Did either of those teams have 2 only starting pitchers signed and ready to start the season?

 

The Twins are in a poor position as it pertains to starting pitching. It doesn't matter that those teams didn't sign much or anyone to help them out. They had the help already there. 

 

This team has a hole. It's large and a very important part of any winning team. 

 

Also, you cherry picked 2 teams. Go though the rest of the teams that won WS in that time period and you will find lots of free agents picked up or impact players traded for. Twins had a unique opportunity to play with the big boys this year and didn't take advantage. 

[nick_hansen]

Curios. Did either of those teams have 2 only starting pitchers signed and ready to start the season?

 

The Twins are in a poor position as it pertains to starting pitching. It doesn't matter that those teams didn't sign much or anyone to help them out. They had the help already there.

 

This team has a hole. It's large and a very important part of any winning team.

 

Also, you cherry picked 2 teams. Go though the rest of the teams that won WS in that time period and you will find lots of free agents picked up or impact players traded for. Twins had a unique opportunity to play with the big boys this year and didn't take advantage.

 

Exactly what I was going to say. A number of WS teams have made acquisitions through trade or FA. I don’t think it’s unreasonable for us to expect more considering our financial flexibility and our roster ready to truly compete if the pitching is shored up.

[Major League Ready]

 

Curios. Did either of those teams have 2 only starting pitchers signed and ready to start the season?

 

The Twins are in a poor position as it pertains to starting pitching. It doesn't matter that those teams didn't sign much or anyone to help them out. They had the help already there. 

 

This team has a hole. It's large and a very important part of any winning team. 

 

Also, you cherry picked 2 teams. Go though the rest of the teams that won WS in that time period and you will find lots of free agents picked up or impact players traded for. Twins had a unique opportunity to play with the big boys this year and didn't take advantage. 

 

There was absolutely no cherry picking. I included the only two teams with below average revenue to win the WS in the past 15 years and I prefaced my post with that qualifier. The inability of some fans to recognize that teams with $80 or $180 or $380M have acquisition options that teams with less than average revenue do not might be the basis of discontent here. However, if you take a few minutes to look at the way teams with less revenue have built winners, it’s quite obvious high dollar FAs play almost no role at all. The same is true of trades for established stars. It’s also quite obvious looking at the WS winners in the past 20 years that the high revenue teams have a distinct advantage.

 

I could have included the Rays who made it to the WS and lost but I knew they did not sign any long-term / big dollar FAs because they never have. If they have ever traded away a top prospect, I am not aware.

 

I could have used the A’s or Ray’s from just last year. Their rosters had great influence from 1 and 2 year FAs and players that were acquired as prospects. The largest free agent contract on their rosters was Charlie Morton for 2/30M.

 

I could have even used last year’s Dodger team who did not have a free agent or established player they traded for that contributed more than 1.5 WAR. Of course, they have Kenley Jansen on their roster but he has contributed a total of 1.5 WAR over the past two seasons.

 

I could have included Arizona signing Greinke. They won 69 games his 1st year. They did manage to win 93 games in 2017.  However, they got creamed in the LDS. The next two years they had 82 and 85 wins. In 2017, They were led by a homegrown player (Goldschmidt) and strong contributions from home grown SPs. Godley was #2 on that team. He was acquired as a prospect. Robbie Ray was #3. He was acquired from Detroit with a total of 28 IP at the ML level. Patrick Corbin was 4th in terms of WAR among their Sps. He was acquired as a prospect.

 

They did acquire Taijuan Walker via trade and he contributed 2.5 WAR. He had never exceed 1.8 WAR previously and did not exceed 1 WAR going forward. They did give up Sean Segura and Mitch Hanger to get him. Segura led the team in WAR at 5.o the year before and he produced 8.9 WAR over his remaining 3 years of control. Haniger was hurt last year but he put up 4.5 WAR in 2018. Obviously, not the kind of exchange we want for our team giving away multiple years of control of impact players. Actually, it’s the kind of move being asserted here as essential to winning when in this case was very counterproductive.

 

Would love to see all your example of where league average revenue teams pushed all-in with success. 

[Major League Ready]

 

The 2019 Washington Nationals, 2018 Boston Red Sox, and 2017 Houston Astros.

Sigh... then I see you put your self-imposed revenue requirement again. Never mind, don’t reply back.

 

I very specifically stated teams with league average revenue. Each of these teams have enough incremental revenue to pay for those FAs and have the Twins revenue left over. You have changed a critical variable. How those teams were constructed offers no validation of what is a successful model for lower revenue teams. Ignore it if you like but the problem is your assumption that this does not matter.

 

BTW ... The Astros did a great job trading good but not great assets for impact players. I would welcome a similar trade now but who would that be? We should also acknowledge these moves were facilitated by a series of incredible draft success. The one mistake they did make got erased for them and they got Bregman for the returned pick. I guess the fanned on Appel but they killed it in the draft for several years straight.

[Battle ur tail off]

So what's your plan then?

 

Want to sell off this core and reload up again?

 

This team is in a unique position. They are stocked almost around the diamond. Their bullpen is in pretty good shape. They are missing 2 starting pitchers. They are sitting on all kinds of payroll money. They also have a pile of good prospects with nowhere for them to play on the major league roster.

 

Doesn't it only make sense to push all in by getting yourself a couple of arms? 

 

I guess I just don't understand your hesitance to go for it. PS I don't have time to go back and sift through years and years of playoff data and who they acquired to get there etc. I would define success as getting yourself into at least the ALCS or the WS. Just because teams didn't win it, doesn't mean they didn't have success. I am more than certain there are a few mid-market teams that bought themselves a starter, a bopper, etc or trade for one that made some playoff runs. 

[Marcusesm]

If they're not spending on free agents, hopefully there's a plan to lock up Berrios, Buxton and Sano on front loaded contracts for their prime years.  If the Twins go into the 2020 season with a $100M payroll, it'll be a disgusting failure of an offseason.