Front Page: Ryu To Sign with Toronto. Now What?

[SwainZag]

 

They haven't added any of them that weren't already on the team, which is the point. But you know that.

 

anyone ranked below Pineda is still likely to be better than three rookies.

 

What would you have done? Not sign Ryu to 4 years, or any to 4 years or more. So, what would you have done, or do now? 

 

How do we know that? Why just assume that Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe etc. can't put up a 4.75 FIP/ERA for 25 starts for a season?  

[howeda7]

 

Thank you because I feel like an alien right now. The consternation over the lack of free agent signings seems to be bigger than when we got swept in the first round. I’m not sure how this is a bigger deal than that but it is and it really shouldn’t be

We all knew the 1st round sweep was likely coming. Still frustrating, but we were braced for it.

 

But many believed the front office when they said they would "go for it" even though they never have before. Because there was a new sheriff. Learning he's just like old sheriff is incredibly frustrating and depressing as a fan. It's also not fun feeling like you were lied to.

[Mr. Brooks]

How do we know that? Why just assume that Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe etc. can't put up a 4.75 FIP/ERA for 25 starts for a season?

Why limit your options though?

We can always fall back on those guys if the FA's don't pan out.

 

But if those guys are plan A, then you're stuck until the trade deadline if they fail.

And that's assuming the FO isn't as afraid of deadline trade prices as they are of FA prices.

[ewen21]

I’m simply saying you can’t argue both ways. Your rebuttal when Chief said Ryu threw 180 innings just last year is I’m only looking forward. Then you use past results to justify a future projection. If you’re only looking forward, then none of his past performance matters.

I can’t? Why?

 

I’m not a one-dimensional thinker so I look at it from more than one angle. I’ve made that pretty clear in my last few posts on this guy.

 

Do you want to limit the amount of facts I present because it makes too much of a case against signing Ryu to a multi year-deal?

 

I don’t confidence in him going forward based off his history, his age and his iffy health

[howeda7]

 

 

Why is not wanting to overpay a cop out? When is overpaying ever a good thing anywhere in life? If you've decided something is worth X amount you don't go out and pay more than X amount to get it just so you can say you have it. That's bad business all around.

On a sunny day, you might not pay $50 for an umbrella. When it's pouring rain, you will. The Twins rotation has black clouds hanging over it. And Falvey is sitting with a roll of $50's looking for a "deal" and the umbrella store just sold out.

[ewen21]

We all knew the 1st round sweep was likely coming. Still frustrating, but we were braced for it.

 

Really? I heard a lot of pontificating about how this team had nothing to do with the other teams. There was thread that basically said BRING ON THE YANKEES. Rocco even insisted on ignoring history.

 

When you say WE I don’t know who you mean. And Ryu isn’t the answer to that. We score just over two runs a game on average during this run of playoff futility.

 

Even if we had Ryu and Bumgarner last year we probably STILL would have been swept. Most of the problem is the mindset, in my opinion

[twinstalker]

As I read these comments, I get the sense that some of you people think Falvine wants to fail at their job. That they'd rather unnecessarily save a few dollars than succeed. I do not have time to read crap like that.

 

Disagreeing with not overpaying Ryu is fine. Being bummed that Wheeler, MadBum, Cole, and Strasburg were NEVER going to come here is fine. Thinking Keuchel is something he's not is even okay. Misunderstanding the benefit/detriment of giving big money to average pitching is maybe understandable.

 

But the comments here that imply Falvine has some agenda other than winning championships are both laughable and sad.

[howeda7]

 

How do we know that? Why just assume that Smeltzer/Dobnak/Thorpe etc. can't put up a 4.75 FIP/ERA for 25 starts for a season?  

First, it takes 8 starters to get through a season, on average. Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe should be options 5/6/7 not 3/4/5. It's very likely at least one of them will be a complete bust, and it's unlikely any of the 3 will be a legit #3 starter in 2020.

 

As currently constructed I would certainly take the Field to win the AL Central over the Twins. Forget worrying about play-offs.

[howeda7]

 

 

Really? I heard a lot of pontificating about how this team had nothing to do with the other teams. There was thread that basically said BRING ON THE YANKEES. Rocco even insisted on ignoring history.

When you say WE I don’t know who you mean. And Ryu isn’t the answer to that. We score just over two runs a game on average during this run of playoff futility.

Even if we had Ryu and Bumgarner last year we probably STILL would have been swept. Most of the problem is the mindset, in my opinion

Sure, we heard that from the team. I think most fans knew in their gut what was coming. I certainly did.

 

If you think it's all "mindset" don't you think the "mindset" of the team and the line-up would have been better in game 2 if we'd had MadBaum on the mound instead of an Uber Driver with 5 career starts?

[USAFChief]

I can’t? Why?

 

I’m not a one-dimensional thinker so I look at it from more than one angle. I’ve made that pretty clear in my last few posts on this guy.

 

Do you want to limit the amount of facts I present because it makes too much of a case against signing Ryu to a multi year-deal?

 

I don’t confidence in him going forward based off his history, his age and his iffy health

you're only looking at it from one angle.

 

Nodoby doubts that Ryu has an injury filled past. That's why the 2019 NL CYA runner up went so cheaply.

 

That's why many here preferred someone else, if they had their drothers.

 

But the Twins absolutely need to add good starting pitching. They passed on the other options. Or the other options passed on them, if you want to be charitable.

 

So that left Ryu. And he went for 4/$80. And his most RECENT history is 180 IP.

 

For a team in the Twins position, that was EXTREMELY reasonable. Eminently doable. It would have potentially made a big impact, if he's healthy, and not done significant damage to the team is he isnt.

 

This was a no brainer. There's no recovery, unless they get lucky with some lotto ticket.

 

They can still make trades, but that should have been in addition to a FA starter, not instead of. And make no mistake, there's no guarantee they'll find a starter as good as Ryu available, and if they do, it won't be cheap.

[howeda7]

 

As I read these comments, I get the sense that some of you people think Falvine wants to fail at their job. That they'd rather unnecessarily save a few dollars than succeed. I do not have time to read crap like that.

 

Disagreeing with not overpaying Ryu is fine. Being bummed that Wheeler, MadBum, Cole, and Strasburg were NEVER going to come here is fine. Thinking Keuchel is something he's not is even okay. Misunderstanding the benefit/detriment of giving big money to average pitching is maybe understandable.

 

But the comments here that imply Falvine has some agenda other than winning championships are both laughable and sad.

Obviously they don't want to fail. The question is what do they see as their job? Their talk indicated it was to go big and make a run at a world series. Their actions indicated it's to be the "smartest" GM in the room and avoid a "bad" contract at all costs, even if it means they have no realistic chance at their stated goal.

[SwainZag]

 

Why limit your options though?
We can always fall back on those guys if the FA's don't pan out.

But if those guys are plan A, then you're stuck until the trade deadline if they fail.
And that's assuming the FO isn't as afraid of deadline trade prices as they are of FA prices.

 

Agree completely about limiting their options.  I would love to see them bring in more options, the more options and depth the better.  All I am saying is  why are we assuming that anyone they bring in is likely to be better than the options they have?

[SwainZag]

 

First, it takes 8 starters to get through a season, on average. Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe should be options 5/6/7 not 3/4/5. It's very likely at least one of them will be a complete bust, and it's unlikely any of the 3 will be a legit #3 starter in 2020.

 

As currently constructed I would certainly take the Field to win the AL Central over the Twins. Forget worrying about play-offs.

 

You are right, they NEED more options.  I totally agree 100%.  

 

You take the field, I'll take the Twins.  Pint of something Minnesota local as the bet

[howeda7]

 

Agree completely about limiting their options.  I would love to see them bring in more options, the more options and depth the better.  All I am saying is  why are we assuming that anyone they bring in is likely to be better than the options they have?

Because Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe aren't exactly hot prospects?

[howeda7]

 

You are right, they NEED more options.  I totally agree 100%.  

 

You take the field, I'll take the Twins.  Pint of something Minnesota local as the bet

Deal. Although the chances of that being the starting 5 is small. They will surely sign/trade for some veteran who will end up in the opening day rotation. I just don't have high hopes for who it will be.

[howeda7]

Betances signs with the Mets. I bet we were in on him though. The top Twins article on MLB trade rumors is about Cron going to the Tigers. I guess that says it all.

[FritzDahmus]

I have a running list of the top 20 FA from prior years that includes who signed them, for how much, and how long. I always review it as teams move into the FA frenzy. In general, it appears that the yearly tally is about 80% of the contracts fall into the regrettable or forgettable category. This appears to be especially true for pitchers with long term deals.

 

Since 5 years seems to be the length many commenters want to use for spending “billionaires” money; I thought looking back at the 2015 FA class might be enlightening. Here they are in descending order of rank, with yrs/avg salary

 

Pitchers: Greinke (6/34) Price (7/31) Cueto (6/22) Kazmir (3/16) Leake (6/16) Lackey (2/16) Chen (5/16) Zimmerman (5/22) Samardzija (5/18). An interesting group not unlike this year’s, with some big names in their prime; a few injury prone but talented arms, some high ceiling potential, and a few playoff tested veterans that would be good for any staff.

 

Non-Pitchers: (Just the top 5) Heyward (8/23) J Upton (6/22) Cespedes (3/25) Gordon (4/18) Davis (7/23). In retrospect, a disaster. Definitely not what it looked like at the time. Appeared to be relatively young players in their prime.

 

2015 was not an outlier. There were worse years such as 2017 (remember the clamoring for Darvish, Arietta, and Cobb), and better (maybe 2018 but there has to be a touch of buyers remorse already with Machado and Harper).

 

Overall, a cautionary tale. They are not as good as we make them out to be.

 

[unless they sign with the Yankees...then they head to the Hall of Fame}. They have a way of "handling" those big free agents.

 

 

[unless they sign with the Yankees...then they head to the Hall of Fame]. They have a way of "handling" those big free agents.

[SwainZag]

 

Because Dobnak, Smeltzer and Thorpe aren't exactly hot prospects?

 

They might not be hot prospects, but if you look around the league rotations are littered with guys in the 3-5 range who were not hot prospects.

 

Dobnak has had an ERA under 3.20 for his entire minor league career and was superb in SSS of 28.1 major league innings last year.

 

Yes, it's a SSS, but for comparison

 

Dobnak:   7.31 K/9, 1.59 BB/9, 0.32 HR/9  in 2019

Dallas Kuechel for his career:  7.16 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 0.91 HR/9

 

I know that Dobnak isn't likely to be Kuechel who won a Cy Young, but the potential to be a similar type pitcher is there.  

 

Lewis Thorpe when he has been healthy has been electrifying at every minor league stop and he's 24 years old. In AAA last year he had 11.12 K/9, 2.34 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9 to go with a 3.72 FIP.  While he wasn't shut down dominant, he has the stuff to be at least a mid rotation starter.

 

There is a notion going around that Twins after Berrios and Odo have absolutely nothing and will be forfeiting games after the top 2 in the rotation and it's just not true, they potentially have options, the guys are there.  

 

I would like more options, but just because these guys aren't Top 20 prospects does not mean they can't make a difference.

 

[ewen21]

you're only looking at it from one angle.

 

Nodoby doubts that Ryu has an injury filled past. That's why the 2019 NL CYA runner up went so cheaply.

 

That's why many here preferred someone else, if they had their drothers.

 

But the Twins absolutely need to add good starting pitching. They passed on the other options. Ir the other options passed on them, if you want to be charitable.

 

So that left Ryu. And he went for 4/$80. And his most RECENT history is 180 IP.

 

For a team in the Twins position, that was EXTREMELY reasonable. Eminently doable. It would ha e potentially made a big impact, if he's healthy, and not done significant damage to the team is he isnt.

 

This was a no brainer. There's no recovery, unless they get lucky with some lotto ticket.

 

They can still make trades, but that should have been in addition to a FA starter, not instead of. And make no mistake, there's no guarantee they'll find a starter as good as Ryu available, and if they do, it won't be cheap.

You have a lot of confidence a guy who might have just had his last good season. I have no confidence that he will be in the league in three years. Based on all I read about him in the last few months I only see red flags.

 

The beauty of it is we will see this year if you were right or if the GMs and I were.

[Mike Sixel]

This thread isn’t about ‘would have’. That ship has sailed, for whatever real or imagined reasons, those ‘would have’ options are off the table. So ... what does Mike Sixel do now? What is your plan moving forward? What options do the Twins have next and what do you want them to do now?

No idea. They didn't sign any new starting pitchers. I don't know who is actually available for trade, and the history of trades shows not many good pitchers are traded..... As I've pointed out for some time.

 

But then, I've posted what I would do, and not just said no to everyone else.....

 

I guess my answer has to be trade for the best pitcher they can, assuming they think he's a number three or better.

[Mike Sixel]

Agree completely about limiting their options. I would love to see them bring in more options, the more options and depth the better. All I am saying is why are we assuming that anyone they bring in is likely to be better than the options they have?

. Because rookies aren't usually league average. Because the free agents have already shown they can be successful.

 

Do you expect all three rookies to be good this year? Better than they could have signed?

[twinstalker]

 

Obviously they don't want to fail. The question is what do they see as their job? Their talk indicated it was to go big and make a run at a world series. Their actions indicated it's to be the "smartest" GM in the room and avoid a "bad" contract at all costs, even if it means they have no realistic chance at their stated goal.

 

I think a lot of us think it's okay to spend a whole bunch of $$$ unwisely this "one" time. I'll take my chances with someone who thinks there's a better way to go about this, to use the extra money this year on one-year moves, to use all the bad money saved in years 3 and 4 or 5 to make a smarter splash next year or thereafter. Cole and Strasburg (and Rendon) were the only real game-changers. After that, I'm not sure we could have anything more than a hope that the addition worked.

 

Falvine's job is to win as much as possible for as long as they're here, with emphasis on championships. Right now Derek Falvey should expect to be here for thirty years and win multiple championships. Why do anything to the detriment of that vision? He and Levine know they have a chance to win in 2020. It's not a good chance no matter what they do. The Yankees, Astros, and then a bunch of others stand in the way. At best the Twins are approx 5% to win the WS after they do something. They will do some things to make the team better, we know they will. But to expect idiocy with money that will improve your chances 1% or 2% is perplexing to me, especially when the moves that will be made will likely get you that same improvement in chances anyway.

 

Of course, and here's the kicker, when things ultimately don't work out, everybody will be blaming the moves they didn't make. Because this group-think mentality we have going on here (Twins fandom) is the king of Captain Hindsight:

 

1. Expect them to do everything.

2. The Twins will lose eventually and certainly be likely  to win less than 101 games. Because, one winner.

3. Blame the FO for not doing the 99% of the things in #1 they didn't do.

 

This is a process. I wish the Twins had been able to sign Zack Wheeler. It turns out there was no realistic chance. If they had signed Wheeler, their chance of winning it all may have improved from 4% to 6%. Now they will do something different, and their chances will improve to 5% or 5.5%. But eventually, when our Klubers, Civales, Biebers, Plesacs, and Carrascos have taken over the rotation and our prospect hitters we keep drafting high are ready and add to Kepler and Co., we'll have a much stronger starting point and be less in need of a major upgrade that, except in our best-case scenarios, stands little chance of being filled to the degree we need, especially at the $$$ we throw at it.

 

[Major League Ready]

 

I would put together that prospect package for Thor. He was on the block last July, and I’m not going to make any assumptions that other pitchers like Blake Snell are available.

 

It does not appear the Mets are punting so why should we believe Thor is available? Is this another would have / should have comment or is there some credible report suggesting they would trade Thor?

[Mike Sixel]

It does not appear the Mets are punting so why should we believe Thor is available? Is this another would have / should have comment or is there some credible report suggesting they would trade Thor?

Agreed. The Mets are not making their MLB team worse this year. They are adding to it.

[Major League Ready]

 

First, it takes 8 starters to get through a season, on average. Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe should be options 5/6/7 not 3/4/5. It's very likely at least one of them will be a complete bust, and it's unlikely any of the 3 will be a legit #3 starter in 2020.

 

As currently constructed I would certainly take the Field to win the AL Central over the Twins. Forget worrying about play-offs.

 

That's interesting. The net difference is basically Gibson in the who we lost column. Castro and Availa are a wash. We added a half season of Romo and a full season of Clippard. Plus, I would hope they are not done yet. We also have Arreaz for a full season.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

As I said in my first post in this thread, that’s my hope. What would it take to get him? Do we bankrupt the farm for him? Last summer it was never just Buxton, straight up, they wanted Lewis and/or Kirilloff, too, from my understanding. What do you think it will take and is it worth it? Do we give up how many of our top 10 prospects? I think we have enough to make it happen, and I think it’s worth it, but I don’t know what exactly the right combination would be.

Are you sure? I doubt it.

 

My recollection is that it was either Buxton, or Lewis, as a headliner, not both. But based on media reporting, I don't think the Twins every took that offer seriously, nor did the fans here. 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

This thread isn’t about ‘would have’. That ship has sailed, for whatever real or imagined reasons, those ‘would have’ options are off the table. So ... what does Mike Sixel do now? What is your plan moving forward? What options do the Twins have next and what do you want them to do now?

I think that's slightly unfair, as Mike usually expresses his yes/no opinions about free agents while other posters seem to wait in the weeds until after something happens, but I agree it would be nice to get the thread back on track. 

 

Trade, pivot, keep the powder dry.... 

 

I would trade. I just don't see any buy low opportunities right now. And the Twins are not exactly making calls from a position of strength right now. But I would offer up a Kirilloff or Dobnak/Lewis/Thorpe.

[Twins33]

My position is neither. Jake was not a free agent until after the qualifying offer day came. The previous poster claimed no teams offered him in those 10 days, which couldn't happen.

Not sure if I’m misreading this or not and maybe this has already been replied to but players are declared free agents a few days after the WS ends. Then later a team decides whether to QO or not (think it’s like five days after the players are declared). Official FA where you can negotiate with players and QO offer day were the same day, November 4th I think it was. Now there may be some small exclusive window, but I don’t think its 10 days. Odorizzi’s agent was testing the market, but wasn’t finding anything to his liking on a long term deal from the Twins or other teams which is why he decided to take the QO. That was reported at the time. Seems like no one expected all those high offers that later came at Wheeler and the others.

 

Will Smith was QO’d and negotiated his contract with the Braves before accepting or declining it. He told teams that if he didn’t get a good enough offer, he was going to go back to the Giants for the QO. It’s the smart thing to do, players using the QO acceptance deadline as leverage.

 

There were a lot of tweets about it for both Odorizzi and Smith, but it’s hard to find tweets after this amount of time has passed.

 

https://nypost.com/2019/11/14/will-smith-lands-first-big-free-agency-deal-of-offseason-from-braves/

 

“Smith planned on accepting the one-year deal from the Giants if a better option did not develop. It did not take long for one to come through.”

 

If any of this has nothing to do with what you were saying, then just ignore this.

 

Edit: I see now that this was already mentioned. Ignore me!

[Squirrel]

Are you sure? I doubt it.

 

My recollection is that it was either Buxton, or Lewis, as a headliner, not both. But based on media reporting, I don't think the Twins every took that offer seriously, nor did the fans here.

 

I had heard Buxton AND ...

[Squirrel]

but I agree it would be nice to get the thread back on track.

 

Trade, pivot, keep the powder dry....

.

This is all I was trying to do. We have too many threads gone off down the path of who the Twins didn’t get, expressing anger and frustration. And I’m not saying that those feelings aren’t justified ... but we don’t need to dump all over every thread. Let’s keep one on track ... what do we do now? And maybe there just isn’t much else to say, in that case I’d suggest a blog if needs still exist to release these emotions rather than derailing every thread with ... cheap, we never get, they could’ve had comments. Let’s keep ONE thread on track ... so, what’s next? If you don’t think they will do anything else, then there isn’t much to say that adds to this particular discussion thread.