Ryu to Toronto

[Mike Sixel]

You keep adding this caveat. Why don’t Odorizzi and Pineda count? They were free agents. The Twins signed them.

Because we are talking about adding to the team. But ok. They count. They still need one or two more.... Not what, because they have not added to the team.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah, but put the rest of the free agent market in context around that deal. Ryu got basically the same money over fewer years. Wheeler got *way* more money and turned down even more than that.

 

If Bumgarner was interested in the money above all else, he could have held out and gotten more than he did from Arizona. The way the rest of the market played out made that pretty clear.

I'm not so sure. Wheeler got 18% more guaranteed than MLBTR's prediction -- exactly the same as Bumgarner. Wheeler turned down 20-25% but he's a different pitcher than Bumgarner with a different valuation. Same with the others -- Ryu got more of an increase than that, but he had a much better 2019 too. Keuchel got more as well, but he was willing to only get 3 years guaranteed and less overall.

 

This idea that Bumgarner was destined to get 38% more than projected ($100 mil), if only he had waited or didn't love his horses so much, appears to primarily exist in Bumgarner and his agent's heads at this point. Fact is, we know of 3 reported offers to Bumgarner before he signed (SF, MIN, and AZ). All 3 were 4 years, around $70 mil I think. It seems most plausible that Bumgarner went to Arizona and said he liked them but wanted them to differentiate themselves from the other bidders to get a deal done, and Arizona replied they could add a 5th year if they got creative (lower AAV, deferred money, back loading). Now, his preference for AZ was reflected in that desire to negotiate, but until we get more evidence to support it, I'm highly suspicious of the narrative that Bumgarner was really shaking off $100 mil offers to settle at $85.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm not so sure. Wheeler got 18% more guaranteed than MLBTR's prediction -- exactly the same as Bumgarner. Wheeler turned down 20-25% but he's a different pitcher than Bumgarner with a different valuation. Same with the others -- Ryu got more of an increase than that, but he had a much better 2019 too. Keuchel got more as well, but he was willing to only get 3 years guaranteed and less overall.

 

This idea that Bumgarner was destined to get 38% more than projected ($100 mil), if only he had waited or didn't love his horses so much, appears to primarily exist in Bumgarner and his agent's heads at this point. Fact is, we know of 3 reported offers to Bumgarner before he signed (SF, MIN, and AZ). All 3 were 4 years, around $70 mil I think. It seems most plausible that Bumgarner went to Arizona and said he liked them but wanted them to differentiate themselves from the other bidders to get a deal done, and Arizona replied they could add a 5th year if they got creative (lower AAV, deferred money, back loading). Now, his preference for AZ was reflected in that desire to negotiate, but until we get more evidence to support it, I'm highly suspicious of the narrative that Bumgarner was really shaking off $100 mil offers to settle at $85.

I’m not even arguing whether Bumgarner shook off $100m but you just listed every other free agent getting more than we expected.

 

Bumgarner didn’t have to shake off 5/$100m but he easily could have shaken off 4/$80m.

 

Every pitcher is getting way more money than we expected and had Bumgarner waited to be the last one standing, it’s likely he gets way more money, too.

 

The top end starter free agent market was closed almost a week before Christmas. Bumgarner didn’t have to sign when he did or for the amount he did to get more money. That’s not really a controversial statement to make.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I’m not even arguing whether Bumgarner shook off $100m but you just listed every other free agent getting more than we expected.

 

Bumgarner didn’t have to shake off 5/$100m but he easily could have shaken off 4/$80m.

 

Every pitcher is getting way more money than we expected and had Bumgarner waited to be the last one standing, it’s likely he gets way more money, too.

 

The top end starter free agent market was closed almost a week before Christmas. Bumgarner didn’t have to sign when he did or for the amount he did to get more money. That’s not really a controversial statement to make.

Bumgarner got more than expected too -- 18% more guaranteed than MLBTR's estimate, albeit over an extra year.

 

And I get the theoretical idea that guys who wait could get more, but there are limits to that. Bumgarner signed right around the same time as most other major FA SP this offseason, so I suspect he and the others thought they were near that limit.

 

So I'm not sure there is much evidence that his approach was particularly different or special. Heck, we know he *rejected* a 4/70ish offer from Arizona before signing there for 5/85, which seems to imply money was some kind of priority for him, no? He didn't simply jump at an expected value contract to be near his horses, and Arizona must have been convinced he was willing to sign elsewhere if they didn't increase their offer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Bumgarner got more than expected too -- 18% more guaranteed than MLBTR's estimate, albeit over an extra year.

And I get the theoretical idea that guys who wait could get more, but there are limits to that. Bumgarner signed right around the same time as most other major FA SP this offseason, so I suspect he and the others thought they were near that limit.

So I'm not sure there is much evidence that his approach was particularly different or special. Heck, we know he *rejected* a 4/70ish offer from Arizona before signing there for 5/85, which seems to imply money was some kind of priority for him, no? He didn't simply jump at an expected value contract to be near his horses, and Arizona must have been convinced he was willing to sign elsewhere if they didn't increase their offer.

Bolded: then why are we even debating this? His contract fell basically in line (or under) MLBTR's estimate, except there was an extra year involved, which skews everything out of line.

 

Meanwhile, everyone else is getting mad money like it's 2015 again.

 

I just don't really understand why it's hard to say Bumgarner took less money to get what he wanted because he accepted a mediocre contract while everyone else in the business is Scrooge McDuck-ing it as they dive into piles of cash.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Bolded: then why are we even debating this? His contract fell basically in line (or under) MLBTR's estimate, except there was an extra year involved, which skews everything out of line.

 

Meanwhile, everyone else is getting mad money like it's 2015 again.

 

I just don't really understand why it's hard to say Bumgarner took less money to get what he wanted because he accepted a mediocre contract while everyone else in the business is Scrooge McDuck-ing it as they dive into piles of cash.

It's hard to accept because it's not really supported by much evidence.

 

Getting an extra year, even at a slightly lower AAV, is fairly significant, no? It's not like teams normally hand out extra years like candy. Wheeler and Keuchel got a higher AAV than predicted, but the same years; Bumgarner and Ryu primarily got an extra year, Ryu for a little more AAV, Bumgarner for a little less. (Both within any reasonable margin of error for MLBTR's initial estimates, which I think are good but certainly not gospel.) They all did better than expected, just in different ways.

 

And yes, perhaps also to different degrees -- but these guys are all different pitchers too, so I'm not sure why you'd expect a rising tide to lift all of their boats equally. Wheeler and Ryu were *much* better pitchers in 2018-2019 than Bumgarner; Keuchel was willing to sign for a shorter term; Keuchel and Ryu also didn't have draft pick compensation attached. It's not unreasonable to speculate that Arizona's 5/85 offer was perhaps the best Bumgarner could get, pending any evidence beyond Bumgarner's own self-interested claims to the contrary.

 

Sorry to argue on a holiday.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

It's hard to accept because it's not really supported by much evidence.

Getting an extra year, even at a slightly lower AAV, is fairly significant, no? It's not like teams normally hand out extra years like candy. Wheeler and Keuchel got a higher AAV than predicted, but the same years; Bumgarner and Ryu primarily got an extra year, Ryu for a little more AAV, Bumgarner for a little less. (Both within any reasonable margin of error for MLBTR's initial estimates, which I think are good but certainly not gospel.) They all did better than expected, just in different ways.

And yes, perhaps also to different degrees -- but these guys are all different pitchers too, so I'm not sure why you'd expect a rising tide to lift all of their boats equally. Wheeler and Ryu were *much* better pitchers in 2018-2019 than Bumgarner; Keuchel was willing to sign for a shorter term; Keuchel and Ryu also didn't have draft pick compensation attached. It's not unreasonable to speculate that Arizona's 5/85 offer was perhaps the best Bumgarner could get, pending any evidence beyond Bumgarner's own self-interested claims to the contrary.

Sorry to argue on a holiday.

We're simply not going to agree on this and that's okay.

 

But bolded: the extra year is literally the crux. Bumgarnger is playing for $6m this year and has the rest deferred.

 

IMO, he could have easily received a four year offer in the same range given the rest of the market.

[Mike Sixel]

Bolded: then why are we even debating this? His contract fell basically in line (or under) MLBTR's estimate, except there was an extra year involved, which skews everything out of line.

 

Meanwhile, everyone else is getting mad money like it's 2015 again.

 

I just don't really understand why it's hard to say Bumgarner took less money to get what he wanted because he accepted a mediocre contract while everyone else in the business is Scrooge McDuck-ing it as they dive into piles of cash.

Everyone is getting the same rates as last year, there are just more good players. I don't know why people keep typing this.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Everyone is getting the same rates as last year, there are just more good players. I don't know why people keep typing this.

Explain Dallas Keuchel then.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Explain Dallas Keuchel then.

Do we know if Keuchel ever had a comparable offer last offseason? Say, if some team offered 3/48 or so (plus the draft pick), earlier in the offseason, and Keuchel declined, hoping to get MLBTR's estimated 4/82? Then that offer could have been taken off the table at some point.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Explain Dallas Keuchel then.

 

No qualifying offer attached. And, teams messed up the previous year, just like waiting on Lance Lynn and not getting him in sooner was a mistake by the Twins.

[bunsen82]

 Tier 1 Pitcher Giolitto -   Berrios

 

Tier 2                              Odorizzi

 

Tier 3             Gonzalez   Pineda

                      Keuchel

 

Tier 4            Rodan        Dobnak

                     Lopez         Graterol  (whichever other pitcher want to through in) 

 

I would maybe give the White Sox a slight edge on pitching right now, but I have a feeling our pitching will perform just as well as the White Sox or better in season.  I would still take our relievers and our lineup over the White sox.  They have made it closer, but are also using the good chunk of their cash chips up for the next couple of year.   

 

The Twins farm system is also quite a bit deeper and with more elite talent and ranked 8th vs 12th for the white sox.