Maybe I'm confused about what you are saying....

 

We know Wheeler left $7M on the table to play in Philly and not Chicago

We know Bumgarner left AT LEAST $15M on the table (and agreed to incredibly friendly terms) to play in AZ. And it was likely more like $25M on the table.

 

We know these things. 

 

Of the top 30 or so starting pitching free agents......more than 20 are off the board, and no new ones came here.

 

I think it is pretty clear, it isn't just about personal preference.

The Jake Odiorizzi steal of a trade last off season has me a little optimistic that this off season can be salvaged. It honestly might be better to get rid of one of the surplus talents we have in the minors to attain a younger arm (such as Odiorizzi) with a couple years of team control. That may end up the better play than all the other SP FA signings outside of Cole, Strasberg, and Wheeler (MadBum, Ryu, and Keurchel all have wear and tear on their arms and/or injury risk)

Maybe I'm confused about what you are saying....

 

We know Wheeler left $7M on the table to play in Philly and not Chicago

We know Bumgarner left AT LEAST $15M on the table (and agreed to incredibly friendly terms) to play in AZ. And it was likely more like $25M on the table.

 

We know these things.

The Bumgarner thing was only $15 mil (he claims he had two 5/100 offers), but it has not been corroborated by anyone else. Seems kind of suspect that there would have been zero leak or confirmation of such an offer.

 

The White Sox reported offer for Wheeler was "more than $120 mil" but I don't believe I saw anything more specific. Even at $125 mil, that's less than a 6% difference, and the White Sox were the worse team too (which I'd add as another factor, at least as a tiebreaker when the money is close). If the Twins or Dodgers offered $125 mil, I think it could have been received differently.

 

Not saying that the Twins should have made those offers -- just saying this isn't very strong evidence of the relationship of other factors vs money.

 

A lot of people are going overboard, given the available trade avenue. But I do think the front office built up the expectation that they would so *something* in free agency. This seems like an unforced error . . . they would be getting criticized regardless but the communication aspect of it definitely made it worse. 

 

This is an apt description of what Thad communicated. He didn't lie. They failed in the free agent marketplace. They set out to succeed in the FA marketplace and they failed. That's truthful.

 

Criticize them for failing. I believe they should have popped the big stupid pill and threw an offer at Ryu, so I'll criticize them for misreading the FA market, being perhaps over-confident, and failing in free agency.

 

But calling them liars and frauds? That's classless, childish, and wholly uncharitable, sorry.

 

If you're one of the people who says they promised you an "impact pitcher" from this pool of free agents, and from no other avenue? You're the one telling a lie.

 

This is an apt description of what Thad communicated. He didn't lie. They failed in the free agent marketplace. They set out to succeed in the FA marketplace and they failed. That's truthful.

 

Criticize them for failing. I believe they should have popped the big stupid pill and threw an offer at Ryu, so I'll criticize them for misreading the FA market, being perhaps over-confident, and failing in free agency.

 

But calling them liars and frauds? That's classless, childish, and wholly uncharitable, sorry.

 

If you're one of the people who says they promised you an "impact pitcher" from this pool of free agents, and from no other avenue? You're the one telling a lie.

 

Concur. They failed at their likely plan (or part of it). Concur, they probably aren't liars and bad people. 

 

I don't see a whole lot of "impact" starting pitchers on the trade market though.

 

If I had to rank the guys I believe to be available with the legit free agents the Twins could have gotten, my list would be:

 

Blake Snell

Jon Gray

Zack Wheeler

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Robbie Ray

David Price

Chris Archer

Madison Bumgarner

 

My interest in the Miami pitchers is still TBD and if Boston is trying to shed payroll I have to think Sale is available at the right price, but I still haven't heard anything on him so he'd also be a TBD.

 

 

Thad Levine is 48 years old and has a normal looking resume for a GM. Falvey's younger, but this "the whiz kids" narrative was never strong and by now is old and busted.
 

 

Take out the young part then. I stand by the rest of my statement. 

 

I'd guess it's about money. Then money. Then personal preferences for other locales or teams. But mostly money.

 

I think it's some of both, but also a solid helping of length of contract as well. I think we've seen the Twins be more competitive in AAV with this front office but being tied down to long term deals is what really drives them to the Pepto Bismol. No idea if the Twins made Ryu an offer, and our local reporters should really be getting on that, but if they wanted but didn't get him, I'd bet it was because they wouldn't do four years.

 

I think it's some of both, but also a solid helping of length of contract as well. I think we've seen the Twins be more competitive in AAV with this front office but being tied down to long term deals is what really drives them to the Pepto Bismol. No idea if the Twins made Ryu an offer, and our local reporters should really be getting on that, but if they wanted but didn't get him, I'd bet it was because they wouldn't do four years.

 

Which I equate to money in year four......but sure, I think that's an issue. But again, that's about the money in year four. Because the roster spot is not relevant if they are truly bad.

If I had to rank the guys I believe to be available with the legit free agents the Twins could have gotten, my list would be:

 

Blake Snell

Jon Gray

Zack Wheeler

Hyun-Jin Ryu

Robbie Ray

David Price

Chris Archer

Madison Bumgarner

 

My interest in the Miami pitchers is still TBD and if Boston is trying to shed payroll I have to think Sale is available at the right price, but I still haven't heard anything on him so he'd also be a TBD.

Can you share any links showing the Rays are open to trading Snell? I know he was mad that they traded Pham away. Otherwise I can also list pitchers above the current FAs who are not available for trade.

Imagine being a front office that thinks their team's success in 2023 has anything to do with whether Ryu is on the books for $20M

 

Can you share any links showing the Rays are open to trading Snell? I know he was mad that they traded Pham away. Otherwise I can also list pitchers above the current FAs who are not available for trade.

 

No links, just my prerogative, I wouldn't except anyone to go off of my internal monologue though so I understand my list is unique and for personal consumption only. For clarity though, my thought process is: He publicly voiced his displeasure, The Rays are criminally cheap, The Rays love to swap MLB talent for prospects, Snell is now behind Glasnow and Morton in terms of immediate importance to the club and likely behind McKay in long term importance. All of that makes me think he can be obtained for the right (and hefty) price.

 

And to even out the list, my prerogative also eliminated Syndergaard because I do not believe he is actually available.

No links, just my prerogative, I wouldn't except anyone to go off of my internal monologue though so I understand my list is unique and for personal consumption only. For clarity though, my thought process is: He publicly voiced his displeasure, The Rays are criminally cheap, The Rays love to swap MLB talent for prospects, Snell is now behind Glasnow and Morton in terms of immediate importance to the club and likely behind McKay in long term importance. All of that makes me think he can be obtained for the right (and hefty) price.

 

And to even out the list, my prerogative also eliminated Syndergaard because I do not believe he is actually available.

You’ve made a lot of assumptions about Snell that I disagree with strongly. The 2018 AL Cy Young award winner is not important to this organization? After he just signed an extension last season? And they value 36 year old Charlie Morton on an expiring contract over Snell? Yikes, man...

 

Not to mention Morton has been mentioned as being traded.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/28346599/tampa-bay-rays-charlie-morton-bound-trade-target

 

I’m not sure I could disagree with you more.

Here's what it comes down to for me....

 

They talked about kicking the door down when the window is open (which it obviously is) while at the same time not sacrificing the future or having that window close too soon.

 

Great. I agree with that thinking. The obvious way too accomplish those things simultaneously was to sign an impact SP free agent. Basically.... it costs money. But money that they obviously could handle within budget.

 

They failed at that.

 

Now they can, via trade, accomplish the first goal, while likely negatively impacting the second goal, or they can accomplish the second goal while ignoring the first goal. They can no longer have both.

 

THAT is why I'm disappointed. The path was so obvious, yet, it was not followed.

 

I don’t really care about the prospect capital at this point, I just want the front office to go get the pitcher they are most confident in going forward.

I believe the same about free agency, it’s why I don’t really cling to specific names. Go get the player they think has the most potential.

But if they swing and miss entirely, that’s a problem.

Neither do I for the most part. My point was that making a trade will be more expensive in terms of what they'll give up to obtain front end help, and if 4/80M for Ryu was balked at, then I'm even less confident this FO will be willing to part with the prospects necessary to bolster the rotation from the top down. 

 

The goalposts haven't been moved, I've been asking for trades over free agents all off season. With the free agents gone, that makes the trades more likely, not less.

Swinging a trade in 2 weeks and pulling the trigger at the deadline aren't the same thing. If they get something done this winter I'll be happy. If the idea is they don't need to because they'll make a move at the deadline then yes, that's moving the goalposts. 

 

You’ve made a lot of assumptions about Snell that I disagree with strongly. The 2018 AL Cy Young award winner is not important to this organization? After he just signed an extension last season? And they value 36 year old Charlie Morton on an expiring contract over Snell? Yikes, man...

Not to mention Morton has been mentioned as being traded.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/28346599/tampa-bay-rays-charlie-morton-bound-trade-target

I’m not sure I could disagree with you more.

 

Well like I said, I wasn't asking you to accept my list. But I don't think I made any assumptions other than where Snell fits into TB's current pitching hierarchy, which still seems accurate to me.

Can you share any links showing the Rays are open to trading Snell? I know he was mad that they traded Pham away. Otherwise I can also list pitchers above the current FAs who are not available for trade.

It wouldn't be cheap, but Kirilloff or especially Lewis would be a pretty compelling start to such a package. Snell hasn't been good enough, often enough, to be *that* untouchable.

Good read... seemed to fit with this thread....

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2019/12/23/21033869/dont-let-mlb-insult-you-goodbye-revenue-cubs-red-sox-ricketts-wrigley-fenway-sports-group?utm_campaign=beyondtheboxscore&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

 

What does “We’re going to target impact pitching” mean to you? To me, that meant signing one of the top 5-7 free agents.

Impact pitching catch be a negative connotation as well.

Good read... seemed to fit with this thread....

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2019/12/23/21033869/dont-let-mlb-insult-you-goodbye-revenue-cubs-red-sox-ricketts-wrigley-fenway-sports-group?utm_campaign=beyondtheboxscore&utm_content=chorus&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&__twitter_impression=true

Great article. Record breaking revenues and teams cry foul that they can’t afford their players. Until financials are brought to light I’ll never believe ownership saying they’re cash strapped.

Great article. Record breaking revenues and teams cry foul that they can’t afford their players. Until financials are brought to light I’ll never believe ownership saying they’re cash strapped.

Seventeenth straight year of record revenue...... And a new 1 billion dollar deal comes on with Nike soon.

 

The Bumgarner thing was only $15 mil (he claims he had two 5/100 offers), but it has not been corroborated by anyone else. Seems kind of suspect that there would have been zero leak or confirmation of such an offer.

The White Sox reported offer for Wheeler was "more than $120 mil" but I don't believe I saw anything more specific. Even at $125 mil, that's less than a 6% difference, and the White Sox were the worse team too (which I'd add as another factor, at least as a tiebreaker when the money is close). If the Twins or Dodgers offered $125 mil, I think it could have been received differently.

Not saying that the Twins should have made those offers -- just saying this isn't very strong evidence of the relationship of other factors vs money.

Bumgarner's 2020 contract is for $6m and the rest is crazy-deferred.

 

We shouldn't need any more evidence that he chose to go to the place he wanted to live and not where the money was.

 

No idea if the Twins made Ryu an offer, and our local reporters should really be getting on that, but if they wanted but didn't get him, I'd bet it was because they wouldn't do four years.

 

That's my best guess. This particular ballclub is too good to be that risk averse. It's criminal.

Ryu could have been had.  

Bumgarner's 2020 contract is for $6m and the rest is crazy-deferred.

 

We shouldn't need any more evidence that he chose to go to the place he wanted to live and not where the money was.

It's not really crazy-deferred. $15 mil deferred, paid out immediately after the deal ends (years 6-8). I can't find it now, but I thought I read for luxury tax purposes, its present day value is $81 mil, not far from its actual value of $85 mil.

 

And backloading is a little out of the norm but offers zero evidence that he turned down more total money elsewhere. Bumgarner's backloading is virtually identical to what Russell Martin got a few years ago ($7 mil first year of a 5/82 deal, $16.4 mil AAV). James Shields only made $10 mil in the first year of his $18.75 AAV deal. Corbin took the highest offer last winter, but only made $12.5 mil the first year of a $23.3 mil AAV deal. I don't think any of those 3 players were even rumored to have turned down a higher total guarantee.

 

And the fact that Bumgarner only got a 5 team no-trade clause (less than what he had with SF) suggests he's not *too* concerned with remaining in Arizona, or with where he finishes this contract in general.

 

Lol. This offseason can’t get any worse, can it?

Yes it can....we just lost twice to the Packers.......

And yesterday was the official start of Winter...so 5 more months of snow and cold in Minnesota...

 

 

And we debate why Cole..Strasburg..MadBum..Ryu bypass Minnesota?

Ha ha ha . 

 

It's not really crazy-deferred. $15 mil deferred, paid out immediately after the deal ends (years 6-8). I can't find it now, but I thought I read for luxury tax purposes, its present day value is $81 mil, not far from its actual value of $85 mil.

And backloading is a little out of the norm but offers zero evidence that he turned down more total money elsewhere. Bumgarner's backloading is virtually identical to what Russell Martin got a few years ago ($7 mil first year of a 5/82 deal, $16.4 mil AAV). James Shields only made $10 mil in the first year of his $18.75 AAV deal. Corbin took the highest offer last winter, but only made $12.5 mil the first year of a $23.3 mil AAV deal. I don't think any of those 3 players were even rumored to have turned down a higher total guarantee.

And the fact that Bumgarner only got a 5 team no-trade clause (less than what he had with SF) suggests he's not *too* concerned with remaining in Arizona, or with where he finishes this contract in general.

Yeah, but put the rest of the free agent market in context around that deal. Ryu got basically the same money over fewer years. Wheeler got *way* more money and turned down even more than that.

 

If Bumgarner was interested in the money above all else, he could have held out and gotten more than he did from Arizona. The way the rest of the market played out made that pretty clear.

Of the top 30 or so starting pitching free agents......more than 20 are off the board, and no new ones came here.

You keep adding this caveat. Why don’t Odorizzi and Pineda count? They were free agents. The Twins signed them.