Front Page: The Royals Problem: Just How Much Are You Willing to Give Up to Win a World Series?

[Blackjack]

 

Slow and steady!

I like it!!! You'll win a lot of races that way!!!

[Elliot]

I am firmly in the camp of being competitive year to year. I consider a 101 win season a success. A championship is great, but it cannot be bought or guaranteed. It takes a combination of a good team and, to some extent, good luck. Buxton’s and Cron’s injuries and Pineda’s foolishness fall in the “bad luck” category. The unexpected emergence of Arraez is good fortune. Give me a team that year in and year out is very competitive, and with the right breaks is capable of going a long way, and I am a happy fan. Winning a World Series is great, but it does not buy a pass from expectations in the subsequent years.

 

I know others view this differently and are all in for a championship. I just doubt that if that happens they would be content if the price was a few years of non-competitive teams. Note that I said if. It doesn’t have to be that way.

[Trov]

I would much rather have long term success over years and have chance in playoffs than to risk everything to have just a slightly better chance.  Take this past season for example, in June, who would have said Nationals were going to win it all?  Yes, they have spent plenty over the years, but they even let their top FA walk, and then was a terrible team mid way through season, only to figure it out, get in via wild-card, and win it all.  

 

There is never a guarantee any set of players will win a title.  Sure, it was annoying how many times the Twins laid an egg in the playoffs during the Gardy years, but watching baseball in September and October is always more fun than stopping in July because they are 20 games out. 

 

The right way to do it, is much like the Rays and A's have done over recent years.  They find how to win different ways, and flip guys maybe a year early to get better talent to use for a few years and then do it again. 

 

That will be the test of the new FO on what they do with some of these pending FA in next few years.  Do they flip Buxton, Sano, Eddie, or others just reload moving forward?  They should trade some eventually to reload.  Keep the young guys coming, but not just young guys. 

 

The real problem with the Royals is they did not develop new talent very well to bring up and all their top players reached FA same year.  They let them walk in hopes of one more winning year.  They should have flipped some a year earlier get more players to reload. 

 

Ray trade Chris Archer away and what has turned out to a be steal of a trade so far.  A's continue to be competitive, despite never signing major FA's.  It can be done, but need the right system in place and need to be willing to trade a good player away some times.  It is not rebuilding, it is reloading when you can fill in the spot they vacated. 

[cardsfan]

I would much rather have long term success over years and have chance in playoffs than to risk everything to have just a slightly better chance.  Take this past season for example, in June, who would have said Nationals were going to win it all?  Yes, they have spent plenty over the years, but they even let their top FA walk, and then was a terrible team mid way through season, only to figure it out, get in via wild-card, and win it all.  

 

There is never a guarantee any set of players will win a title.  Sure, it was annoying how many times the Twins laid an egg in the playoffs during the Gardy years, but watching baseball in September and October is always more fun than stopping in July because they are 20 games out. 

 

The right way to do it, is much like the Rays and A's have done over recent years.  They find how to win different ways, and flip guys maybe a year early to get better talent to use for a few years and then do it again. 

 

That will be the test of the new FO on what they do with some of these pending FA in next few years.  Do they flip Buxton, Sano, Eddie, or others just reload moving forward?  They should trade some eventually to reload.  Keep the young guys coming, but not just young guys. 

 

The real problem with the Royals is they did not develop new talent very well to bring up and all their top players reached FA same year.  They let them walk in hopes of one more winning year.  They should have flipped some a year earlier get more players to reload. 

 

Ray trade Chris Archer away and what has turned out to a be steal of a trade so far.  A's continue to be competitive, despite never signing major FA's.  It can be done, but need the right system in place and need to be willing to trade a good player away some times.  It is not rebuilding, it is reloading when you can fill in the spot they vacated.

 

Or you could do the St. Louis model.

[The_Phantom]

I enjoyed the seasons that we were losing 100 games more than I've enjoyed feeling lied to this off season. "We will step on their throats when the window is wide open" or whatever the exact quote was. Win 101 games, still not willing to take the risk to make the signing. Yes. You absolutely sign someone like Ryu to a 5 year contract and try to actually make it past the first round of the playoffs, and maybe even win the entire thing. If you make a legit run and even win the whole thing, it's worth it when, at the end of that contract you're back to struggling a little bit. 
 
Ryu's fifth year likely won't even be any worse than whatever our current #5 option is anyway. 
 
But this is legitimately the biggest opportunity we've had to make noise in a long time. Maybe the best team since the 06 team at full health. It's beyond a little frustrating that the FO couldn't pony up and actually take a chance at giving the fans a postseason to remember.

[adorduan]

 

I would much rather have long term success over years and have chance in playoffs than to risk everything to have just a slightly better chance.  Take this past season for example, in June, who would have said Nationals were going to win it all?  Yes, they have spent plenty over the years, but they even let their top FA walk, and then was a terrible team mid way through season, only to figure it out, get in via wild-card, and win it all.  

 

There is never a guarantee any set of players will win a title.  Sure, it was annoying how many times the Twins laid an egg in the playoffs during the Gardy years, but watching baseball in September and October is always more fun than stopping in July because they are 20 games out. 

 

The right way to do it, is much like the Rays and A's have done over recent years.  They find how to win different ways, and flip guys maybe a year early to get better talent to use for a few years and then do it again. 

 

That will be the test of the new FO on what they do with some of these pending FA in next few years.  Do they flip Buxton, Sano, Eddie, or others just reload moving forward?  They should trade some eventually to reload.  Keep the young guys coming, but not just young guys. 

 

The real problem with the Royals is they did not develop new talent very well to bring up and all their top players reached FA same year.  They let them walk in hopes of one more winning year.  They should have flipped some a year earlier get more players to reload. 

 

Ray trade Chris Archer away and what has turned out to a be steal of a trade so far.  A's continue to be competitive, despite never signing major FA's.  It can be done, but need the right system in place and need to be willing to trade a good player away some times.  It is not rebuilding, it is reloading when you can fill in the spot they vacated. 

The Rays had 4 losing seasons before being good the last 2.  the A's had 3 losing seasons before being good the last 2. They aren't consistently good.....  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not only did the Washington Nationals not go "all in" in 2019, but they went "all out" when they let Harper go. The Phillies  went "all in" and I don't think they made the playoffs. Or maybe they did win the World Series and the Nationals winning it was a mirage. I would be very happy to see the Twins win the Central again in 2020 and then not go into a coma just because a team has NY on its unis in the playoffs.

 

Uh, they spent that money on other players.......like Corbin. They did nothing of the sort of "going all out". Not even close.

[cardsfan]

The Rays had 4 losing seasons before being good the last 2. the A's had 3 losing seasons before being good the last 2. They aren't consistently good.....

The A's need to move to San Jose and the Ray's to Orlando.

 

Anyways, the AL West should have been dominated by the Angels, but, they can't put together a team good enough to win since 2002.

[cardsfan]

You don't have to be curious, the Royals won, there is no if they would have lost, because they didn't.

The Cubs won trading away Torres, the Houston won trading away prospects, The Red Sox won trading away Moncada, the Nats won spending over 75 million on three pitchers.

If Hader who blew Game 161 of the season hadn't blown the save in the play-in game there is no Nats Championship. Luck.

 

The Nats 3 starters are formidable.

[spanman2]

 

Very few teams, if any, with a 130 million dollar payroll or less are going to have sustained success. The good players get expensive and it's over. So somehow this FO is going to find a magic formula to avoid that?  BS.  Give my a championship. You know what sticks in my mind? Hrbek and Gladden hitting a grand slams.  Viola and Morris pitching great game 7's. Puckett's heroics in game 6. You know what i remember about the decade from 2000-2010?  not much....

Interesting comment on 2000-10...2002 was my 3rd favorite Twins team of all time and I was 10 when the Twins won it in 87.  Can't speak to 'remembering the early years.  The teams in that decade from starting in '01 when they were beginning to figure it out were fun to watch.  2006 was an amazing season...2009 game 163 I mean a lot of good baseball in those years.  Obviously not WS but still some good teams.

[jkcarew]

Brandon Finnegan and Sean Manaea plus $21.6M = "mortgaging the future"? Come on, now.

 

If they had saved the $21M, that would have covered a grand total of ONE year of the contract Hosmer got from the Padres when he hit free agency.

 

The Royals are where they are because they chose not to retain the core of the championship team when they reached free agency (and, for the most part, also failed to trade those pieces for value before they left). Not because of $21M and parting with two prospects that put up a combined total of 3.7 bWAR last year. I get the intent of the article, but the 2015 Royals would be a better example of "smart aggressiveness"....not "mortgaging the future".

[The_Phantom]

Then use the Red Sox. They went all in to acquire Chris Sale. And won a World Series in his second year. Then he was bad in his third year and now they are handcuffed possibly facing 4th place, trying to free up some payroll. Yes they have the resources to recover faster, but who cares. They got the job done and got to fly another banner

[Tomj14]

 

Not only did the Washington Nationals not go "all in" in 2019, but they went "all out" when they let Harper go. The Phillies  went "all in" and I don't think they made the playoffs. Or maybe they did win the World Series and the Nationals winning it was a mirage. I would be very happy to see the Twins win the Central again in 2020 and then not go into a coma just because a team has NY on its unis in the playoffs.

Really?

They spent 140 million on Corbin for 6 years.

They spent 19 million on Sanchez for 2 years.

They spent 10 million on Suzuki for 2 years

They spent 9 million on Dozier for a year

They spent 4 million on Adams for a year

They spent 182 million on those guys overall and 50.83 million last year.

 

Damn, I would love for the Twins to go all out adding 50 million to their yearly payroll.

FYI, Corbin's yearly salary is 2 million less than Harper, plus they only got him for 6 years not 13.

[Bandit34]

The only reason you put the cleats on is to win the World Series. If that is not your goal in the field and in the front office, it's time to hang em up. Sustained success is winning three world titles in a decade. Not being "competitive" 7 out of 10 years. Maybe if the Royals had not dumped all their good players, they would have continued to have great crowds and increased revenues? Is there some kind of rule in baseball that says that a team like the Royals can not increase their payroll? The problem with teams like the Royals, Pirates, Padres, Twins, Reds, is not that they CANNOT afford a high payroll. It's that their owners don't WANT to have a high payroll. 

[MileHighTwinsFan]

I think the Twins' approach is very clear, keep the competitive window open for as long as possible. Falvey and Levine are on the record that staying competitive year in and year out is the goal. 

 

I am perfectly comfortable with the approach of the Twins' this off season.  They are confident in knowing that they have a competitive team that has a very good chance to be in the hunt in July for a playoff spot. 

 

Using the gambling metaphor, it makes little sense to put all your chips in the middle of the table on the first hand.  The goal is to stay in the game for as long as you can and then make the big bet when your odds are far better. 

 

I would much rather have the team start the season confident that they will compete, then make targeted investments at the deadline to address obvious needs that will improve their odds in the playoffs.  

 

Trading top assets for a pitcher in December makes little sense to me if it turns out you are 7 games out on July 31 and have your two top pitchers on the injured list.  Those bets can look better if the team is 10 games up and simply retooling for a playoff run.   

 

Keeping the team competitive over time means that every season you have more chances to make the deadline deal and make a push.

 

We also know that top notch starting pitching does not come cheap. I would rather the Twins accumulate as much young pitching talent as they can and hope that one or more break out to be the true ace they need.  I would hate to sell young pitching talent to acquire an aging, injury riddled veteran with a high price tag. 

 

I stand in favor of Twins keeping the window open for as long as possible and making their bets when the payoff is likely the greatest.  

[USAFChief]

 

 

I stand in favor of Twins keeping the window open for as long as possible and making their bets when the payoff is likely the greatest.

Like they did in 2019?

[Major League Ready]

 

The only reason you put the cleats on is to win the World Series. If that is not your goal in the field and in the front office, it's time to hang em up. Sustained success is winning three world titles in a decade. Not being "competitive" 7 out of 10 years. Maybe if the Royals had not dumped all their good players, they would have continued to have great crowds and increased revenues? Is there some kind of rule in baseball that says that a team like the Royals can not increase their payroll? The problem with teams like the Royals, Pirates, Padres, Twins, Reds, is not that they CANNOT afford a high payroll. It's that their owners don't WANT to have a high payroll. 

 

I am speechless! I was going to go over a little economics 101 but what's the point.

[howeda7]

 

The only reason you put the cleats on is to win the World Series. If that is not your goal in the field and in the front office, it's time to hang em up. Sustained success is winning three world titles in a decade. Not being "competitive" 7 out of 10 years. Maybe if the Royals had not dumped all their good players, they would have continued to have great crowds and increased revenues? Is there some kind of rule in baseball that says that a team like the Royals can not increase their payroll? The problem with teams like the Royals, Pirates, Padres, Twins, Reds, is not that they CANNOT afford a high payroll. It's that their owners don't WANT to have a high payroll. 

High being subjective, obviously the Royals could not keep their team together if it meant having a $200 million payroll. That said, they also didn't have to collapse as much as they did. They made some poor choices in the aftermath of the World Series win. The Twins don't have to follow a Royals/Marlins model to win a WS. They can follow a Cardinals model.

[twinstalker]

The Royals were LUCKY. They had a good team. They had dominant relief you can't really hope for when even when you sign the supposed best of the best. But to get through the playoff maze, they were also very lucky.

 

You can follow a model that creates a strong team and strong organization, but then you need a lot of luck to win. People who win poker tournaments actually build their organization, and develop strong play. But unless they also get very lucky, they will not win.

 

There are cases where not so good poker players win by making high powered moves and, of course, getting lucky. But what you don't want to focus on is that one winner. What you need to focus on is that a hundred bad poker players tried that strategy, and so the fact that one of them had a chance at the end against all the good players who developed their organizations doesn't mean anything. That the one bad poker player then got lucky doesn't mean anything, because it's going to happen from time to time just by chance.

 

You need to be a player that is consistently vying for the final table. That doesn't depend on luck or wild ass plays that by chance work out just to get there (and one bad player will usually get there because there's so many who take those shots).

 

But either way, you need a lot of luck, and since a lot of that is out of your control, the best chance to win it all is to be there more often. That pop-up player might win, but your best bets are with the ones who are strong time after time.

 

Kansas City had some foundations to build a good organization. They had a lot of top picks. When things started to stabilize, they, just like one of many "bad" poker players, took extreme risks to get to the final table (the playoffs). They made it, others with similar strategies didn't. After 30 years they invested everything and got there twice, and proceeded to get lucky. Then they went right back to the bottom, and have incredibly little hope of doing anything again in a long, long, time.

 

I would much rather the Twins take the Indians' path. Always, with a few exceptions, have that ability to be there at the end. Make plays that count but don't take away from the basis, the foundation. Then, at some point, the luck will turn our way.

 

Please don't mistake that with anything Terry Ryan did, because he never made the plays that count, nor did he have the foundation this FO has. The fact that the Indians haven't won in the last 25 years is due to one thing only: luck. Since we can't buy a championship like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cubs, our best bet is keep the foundation, make it stronger, and add when the opportunity avails itself.  The fact that it didn't these last six weeks is hardly a concern in the big picture.

[h2oface]

 

I am speechless! I was going to go over a little economics 101 but what's the point.

Owning a MLB baseball team, or any professional sports team, certainly does not fit economics 101. The business is an outlier, and really, there are no rules on what owners will, could, should, or decide to do. They are not a first source of income or wealth. They are a hobby. That might be the only part of owning a MLB team that fits in economics 101. And when you have a billionaires like Pohlads as owner, there truly are no rules that must be followed.

[old nurse]

There is something that is being ignored here. Terry Ryan is not running the club anymore. The new front office has roots in a system that has developed pitchers. Sabathia, Roberto Hernandez had a couple of great seasons, Carrasco, Kluber, Salazar, Clevinger, Beiber. Now maybe Plutko, Plesac or Civale. Westbrook and Bauer came over as rookies and developed. One would think a person working in baseball operation would have picked up on how the system works and develops pitchers.

[Thrylos]

 

In 2015, the Kansas City Royals mortgaged away their future

 

[...]


Additionally, the Royals mortgaged away much of their long-term success via the trade route at the deadline in 2015.

 

 

 

Gotta love the platitudes.  For the record, here are the players the Royals traded before and during the 2015 season, with their ages in 2020, and what they did in MLB after they were traded in parentheses.)

 

Kyle Bartsch (29, never made it to MLB)
Aaron Brooks (30, 5.38 FIP, 1.413 WHIP, 27 GS in 2.5 seasons)
Aaron Crow (33, never played again in MLB)
Brandon Finnegan (27, 5.30 FIP, 1.426 WHIP, 44 GS in 3.5 seasons)
Johnny Giavotella (32, 90 OPS+, 235 games, out of MLB in 2017)
Ryan Jackson (32, never played again in MLB)
John Lamb (29, 5.11 FIP, 1.604 WHIP, 27 GS in 3 seasons)
Sean Manaea (28, 4.10 FIP, 1.195 WHIP, 85 GS in 4 seasons)
Cody Reed (27, 5.09 FIP, 1.596 WHIP, 20 GS in 4 seasons)

 

If any team is going to win a world series by "mortgaging" that kind of a "future", it should be silly not to do.  Only Manea is a worthwhile player and no better than a number 3 starter in a champion, when healthy (and he is not.)

 

The Royals did not mortgage any future to win.

 

Their problems after they won was that:

a. they decided to not spend any money to remain competitive

b. they did not draft well,

c. they did not sign good international free agents.

 

But that was after 2015.

 

Facts...

 

And, yes, the Twins better start trading prospects before they turn into pumpkins or just expire...

[Mike Sixel]

There is something that is being ignored here. Terry Ryan is not running the club anymore. The new front office has roots in a system that has developed pitchers. Sabathia, Roberto Hernandez had a couple of great seasons, Carrasco, Kluber, Salazar, Clevinger, Beiber. Now maybe Plutko, Plesac or Civale. Westbrook and Bauer came over as rookies and developed. One would think a person working in baseball operation would have picked up on how the system works and develops pitchers.

Sure. But what about this year?

[ewen21]

Not only did the Washington Nationals not go "all in" in 2019, but they went "all out" when they let Harper go. The Phillies went "all in" and I don't think they made the playoffs. Or maybe they did win the World Series and the Nationals winning it was a mirage. I would be very happy to see the Twins win the Central again in 2020 and then not go into a coma just because a team has NY on its unis in the playoffs.

Amen.

[ewen21]

All the grousing about not signing the big free agents masks the fact that the real blame goes on the players for where we are now. 101 wins and then a pathetic effort yet again in the playoffs

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

All the grousing about not signing the big free agents masks the fact that the real blame goes on the players for where we are now. 101 wins and then a pathetic effort yet again in the playoffs

Well then, what are your thoughts on the front office bringing back essentially the same exact players as last year, without adding anyone different?

[ewen21]

Well then, what are your thoughts on the front office bringing back essentially the same exact players as last year, without adding anyone different?

It’s early yet

[Mike Sixel]

Amen.

This is the opposite of true. They signed the most expensive free agent pitcher last year. And others. Nothing about this post is accurate.

[Bandit34]

 

Owning a MLB baseball team, or any professional sports team, certainly does not fit economics 101. The business is an outlier, and really, there are no rules on what owners will, could, should, or decide to do. They are not a first source of income or wealth. They are a hobby. That might be the only part of owning a MLB team that fits in economics 101. And when you have a billionaires like Pohlads as owner, there truly are no rules that must be followed.

This is absolutely the truth. If a businessman buys a professional team to make mega money, he's living in a dream world. I'll say it again, if the owners of the Reds, Royals, Twins, Pirates, etc. wanted to spend the bucks, they absolutely could do so! They don't want to, it's their choice, of course, but let's not live in this fantasy land that these owners are counting every cent. They just choose not to spend. 

[ewen21]

This is the opposite of true. They signed the most expensive free agent pitcher last year. And others. Nothing about this post is accurate.

I was saying AMEN to the last sentence.