Front Page: Two Lefty Starters the Twins Could Trade For Right Now

[Nick Nelson]

With most top free agents off the board, and Minnesota's pursuit of Hyun-Jin Ryu feeling somewhat hopeless, the front office will likely need to make a trade to add the requisite impact starter this offseason.

 

Provided they are ready to pony up, the Twins could almost certainly acquire one of these two crowded-out left-handers.Robbie Ray of the Diamondbacks was already being speculated upon as a trade candidate, even prior to the team's signing of Madison Bumgarner. Now, the rumors are ramping up, and with good reason: Ray has one remaining season under contract, and figures to make more than $10 million in his last turn at arbitration.

 

This past season, Ray was above-average but not great, posting a 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 174 innings. In the two years prior, his ERA+ was 134. He is an absolute strikeout machine, with the third-highest K/9 rate among MLB starters since 2017 (trailing only Chris Sale and Max Scherzer), and even during a relative down year in 2019 he still held opponents to a .234 average. He also, incidentally, has plenty of familiarity with Minnesota's new part-time catcher – Alex Avila spent the last two years in Arizona.

 

To some, Ray wouldn't satisfy the threshold for rotation impact, given that he's been unable to pull everything together and pitch like an ace outside of 2017. But for me, he brings the upside and proven performance to be a transformative addition. There's no doubting his frontline capability.

 

That argument might be a tougher sell with the other guy I'll mention here. Steven Matz doesn't offer the same clearly visible promise as Ray. In fact, he hasn't been very good since breaking onto the scene with a 3.16 ERA over his first 28 starts for the Mets in 2015 and 2016. But that ability is still in there, and he's only 28, with a fastball from the left side that sits in the mid-90s.

 

Even with Zack Wheeler gone, the Mets have a more obvious rotation crunch than Arizona. New York has signed two free agent starters, Michael Wacha and Rick Porcello, to join a unit that already features Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergard, and Marcus Stroman. That leaves Matz – set to earn more than $5 million in arbitration coming off an underwhelming season, and two years away from free agency – as the evident odd man out.

 

It'd be nice if the Twins could pry loose Syndergaard or even deGrom, but the Mets are unlikely to move one of their top dogs as they seem intent on making a push this year. Trading Matz, who currently appears to be their sixth starter, wouldn't inhibit that goal. It would also probably cost Minnesota significantly less in prospect capital than Ray.

 

On that front, the good news is that New York's front office has plenty of familiarity with Minnesota's system, having scouted it thoroughly during Syndergaard trade talks last July. This could help facilitate a deal.

 

Ray would be preferable to Matz, but either starter would add a left-hander with legit stuff to a rotation mix that is currently all right-handed with Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Randy Dobnak. And in either case, it's pretty clear the Twins could make a trade happen tomorrow if they're motivated.

 

And at this point... they should be motivated.

 

 

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[darin617]

Pass on both. I would rather make a deal with Pittsburgh for either Archer or Musgrove. More years of team control and probably better than the 2 mentioned.

[TheMatt]

Ya, I'm not so sure that I want a guy that is getting beaten out of the rotation by both Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha.

[Mike Sixel]

Ray is signed for one year? So, again, in the same spot next year, Odo and Ray will be free agents.... I'll take Ray, but it's another short term band aid.

[mikelink45]

I hate to be trite, but my response is WHY?

[Thrylos]

Bit of a background on Steven Matz:  He is a 4th generation Mets' fan who lives in Long Island and he and his family are imbibed in that community and he is very popular locally.  He is married to a country singer and moved his offseason home to Nashville.  I just don't see Minnesota in his future.

Just sayin'

 

[specialiststeve]

I would be good with either.... Would fit nicely into the rotation. Would clearly depend on what kind of return they would need. Although there is not likely an "ace" to be had there is still some pitchers that could help us out there on the trade market as well as FA market... The front office is likely working on Ryu and Donaldson right now which would determine what still needs to be done. We are fine... the sky is not falling....

[drivlikejehu]

 

Ray is signed for one year? So, again, in the same spot next year, Odo and Ray will be free agents.... I'll take Ray, but it's another short term band aid.

 

I thought the goal was to win this year?

[jmlease1]

 

Bit of a background on Steven Matz:  He is a 4th generation Mets' fan who lives in Long Island and he and his family are imbibed in that community and he is very popular locally.  He is married to a country singer and moved his offseason home to Nashville.  I just don't see Minnesota in his future.

Just sayin'

 

He's 2 years away from free agency; he could be the mayor of Nashville and if he's dealt he's coming or he's not getting paid. Now, might that mean he'll run away as soon as he hits free agency? maybe, but with 2 more arbitration years on the table, that's a concern for another day.

 

Matz is interesting if the price is right and Wes Johnson thinks he can do something with him to add a tick to the fastball or ramp up the control or something. Otherwise, he's a good 4th starter and doesn't move the needle much.

[Brandon]

It looks like the trade route is the way we are going. I do hope we sign Donaldson. I like the idea of going into the playoffs with the number 1 ranked offense. Solid rotation and bullpen.

[DocBauer]

Both 28yo and within 6 months of one another. Matz is LH and throws in the mid 90 range, would love to see what Johnson could do with him. He could be about ready to blossom, but figures to be no worse than a #4.

 

Ray has only 1 season of control but is more proven. What are the odds of a trade and extension rolled in to one? If I'm not mistaken, there is still a QO offer available after next year so that may give a team a little more leverage.

 

I'm willing to pay more in prospect capital for Ray if we can work out some kind of extension. Otherwise, I have to see some "lightening up" of a trade pack for just the 1 year.

[Mike Sixel]

I thought the goal was to win this year?

Not only this year. But yes, winning this year is part of the goal. I've been 100 percent consistent.... They can't keep going year to year on pitching.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Not only this year. But yes, winning this year is part of the goal. I've been 100 percent consistent.... They can't keep going year to year on pitching.

 

It is what it is. Good pitching is hard to get. The best bet for longer-term pitching is internal development, which is an area that Falvey has stressed since he was hired. The Twins have a number of guys with a chance to be contributors in the near future.

[Darius]

I’d love to get Ray. All I’ve been asking for this offseason is someone of his caliber. Nobody in their right mind was expecting Cole or Strasburg, based on the Twins perpetual cheap approach (yes...again...they are cheap. No matter how much certain people don’t like hearing that).

 

He provides some solid upside. I think his floor is relatively safe. Most importantly, he’s a legitimate arm that bumps one of the AAAA guys.

 

A move like this, at minimum, is necessary if Falvine wants to get on a podium and tell fans they’re trying to win something beyond the AL Central with a straight face.

 

I really don’t understand people hard-passing. What’s the alternative? Smeltzer? All of the free agents are long gone. Also, it’s a very small commitment on the Twins end in terms of payroll, which makes it a good compromise for the pocket protectors. This should bring all Twins fans together, from the Pohlad haters to the Pocket Protectors, arm in arm singing carols.

[SwainZag]

 

I’d love to get Ray. All I’ve been asking for this offseason is someone of his caliber. Nobody in their right mind was expecting Cole or Strasburg, based on the Twins perpetual cheap approach (yes...again...they are cheap. No matter how much certain people don’t like hearing that).

He provides some solid upside. I think his floor is relatively safe. Most importantly, he’s a legitimate arm that bumps one of the AAAA guys.

A move like this, at minimum, is necessary if Falvine wants to get on a podium and tell fans they’re trying to win something beyond the AL Central with a straight face.

I really don’t understand people hard-passing. What’s the alternative? Smeltzer? All of the free agents are long gone. Also, it’s a very small commitment on the Twins end in terms of payroll, which makes it a good compromise for the pocket protectors. This should bring all Twins fans together, from the Pohlad haters to the Pocket Protectors, arm in arm singing carols.

 

The people who say hard pass on a guy like Ray is because of the contract.  If you are going to give up the assets to trade for a player of his quality, you would like to have more control than a single year.  Of course, a contract extension is always in the cards, it's nice knowing you have that control in the 1st place.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Ray is signed for one year? So, again, in the same spot next year, Odo and Ray will be free agents.... I'll take Ray, but it's another short term band aid.

If the Twins find themselves in the same situation one year from now as they did with Odorizzi this offseason, is that such a bad thing? QO will be in play, which means another year or leverage for a long-term deal. 

[Twins1fan]

Agreed. If the Twins trade for Ray and they only have him for 1 season that is not so bad. That is assuming the price they pay is not too steep and I can't see the FO doing that. One more year gives our top 2 SP prospects another year to develop. As others have said the best way to get top notch SP is internally. A short term solution is better than overpaying and having to pay an over the hill pitcher the last years of a contract.

[David HK]

Tommy Milone's still out there.

 

Just sayin'.

[joefish]

The time to be excited has passed. Take the best of the leftovers? Meh. Wake me up when spring training is over.

[D.C Twins]

....if they were willing to part with their precious top prospects...

 

which they are not...soooooooo.... next question.....

[D.C Twins]

 

 

If the Twins find themselves in the same situation one year from now as they did with Odorizzi this offseason, is that such a bad thing? QO will be in play, which means another year or leverage for a long-term deal. 

 

The Twins should desperately try not to find themselves in anything close to the same situation next off season. They have 2.5 starters now which will be 1.5 next off season after Odo leaves....so....

[D.C Twins]

Though this off season has slowly transitioned from sad and depressing to predictable and mildly comical.... so there's that!

[D.C Twins]

 

 

Not only this year. But yes, winning this year is part of the goal. I've been 100 percent consistent.... They can't keep going year to year on pitching.

This....This...and.....what was I forgetting.....oh yeah.....THIS! 

 

The year to year bargain bin (Trademark Pending) is just simply not sustainable.....sorry

[ChrisKnutson]

Unless the FO has already decided that either Thorpe or Smeltzer are going to be in the rotation, these are the left handed options available on the trade market.

 

Ray

Rodriguez

Price

Gonzales

Boyd

Quintana

Lester

Newcomb

Duffy

Freeland

Happ

Matz

[HrbieFan]

Ryu signs with the Bluejays for 4/$80. Seriously pissed we didn't come close on this one or with MadBum. Ryu was willing to give up how much in Canadian taxes? The 9% rate in MN isn't cheap, but less than Canada.

[High heat]

Both I think would cost more then they are worth.  
 

What do you think it would take to get Danny Duffy?

 

Might be a good bounce back candidate 

[nicksaviking]

I want the best starters available via trade, which hand they throw with doesn’t matter to me.

[Twodogs]

I wonder how many teams fans are sitting around right now wondering, I wonder what package we could offer for Berrios?

[Twodogs]

It looks like the trade route is the way we are going. I do hope we sign Donaldson. I like the idea of going into the playoffs with the number 1 ranked offense. Solid rotation and bullpen.

So you are going to be following the Yankees now?

[Twodogs]

If the Twins find themselves in the same situation one year from now as they did with Odorizzi this offseason, is that such a bad thing? QO will be in play, which means another year or leverage for a long-term deal.

I guess it would all depend on who they have to give up for that one year and the opportunity to throw a QO at him. Also, remember, not many players accept the QO, so they could be left out in the cold again. Looks like Homer Bailey is starting to look good. I guess if every other girl has turned you down to go to the prom, gotta go and ask the one no one else has asked yet?