Front Page: Practice Pragmatism

[Andrew Gebo]

The prevailing narrative surrounding the Twins offseason thus far has been more or less a series of chaotic cries of desperation for an impact, front-end of the rotation pitcher. While these cries of desperation are justified, Minnesota doesn’t need to sign an impact arm this winter to contend again in 2020.As we prepare to set out the cookies and milk for Santa Claus, the Twins rotation and lineup remains relatively the same as it was in 2019. That team won 101 games en route to their first division title in a decade -- they were a good team.

 

The AL Central remains arguably the weakest division in the league. Sure, the White Sox will likely be better next year, but they won 72 games in 2019. Don’t expect them to be 30 wins better in 2020. The Royals and Tigers will be in a hard-fought battle for the first overall pick and the Indians will likely be somewhere in the middle, especially if they do in fact trade Lindor.

 

If Opening Day rolls around and the Minnesota roster and payroll remains exactly what is right now they’re still the best team in the division. They’re a good team - don’t forget that. It’s also worth noting they’re returning two All-Star starting pitchers.

 

Would it have been nice to add Gerritt Cole or Stephen Strasburg? Of course! But we all knew that wasn’t going to happen. I personally would have loved to see Madison Bumgarner shooting snot rockets in a Twins uniform but he doesn’t have horses in Minnesota. Also, I’d imagine the dirt biking scene is a lot better in Arizona.

 

Hyun-Jin Ryu is still available but there’s something about committing four years to a 33-year-old with an injury list longer than Al Capone’s criminal record that doesn’t sit well with me.

 

Also, Ryu’s career numbers against American League teams aren’t as favorable as his overall career numbers. His career 2.98 ERA and 1.164 WHIP looks a lot better than his 3.84 ERA and 1.24 WHIP against American League teams.

 

Now feels like a good time to remind you that the 2019 Minnesota Twins were a very good team and will have nearly the same roster in 2020. Don’t forget that.

 

By now you’re likely thinking “yes there were very good. I haven’t forgotten but I also haven't forgotten they got swept by the Yankees”. If you had forgotten about that, I’m sorry for reminding you. At least you have the holidays to look forward to.

 

Opening Day is less than 100 days away. Yay! But October baseball is a long ways away. The Twins don’t need to sign an impact front-end of the rotation pitcher prior to Opening Day to be in first place by the trade deadline.

 

Have I mentioned the AL Central is a weak division?

 

Singing a free-agent pitcher to a long-term deal just because you can is similar to drafting Christian Ponder in the first-round. Just because you can do it doesn’t mean you should do it.

 

Do the Twins need to add a quality starting pitcher to their rotation to beat the Yankees or Astros in the postseason? Absolutely. However, that doesn’t have to happen prior to Opening Day.

 

Come July 31 there will be trade options available and those options will likely be better than the free-agent options currently available.

 

Some names to keep an eye on are David Price, Johnny Cueto, Matthew Boyd, and Robbie Ray. Any of those pitchers make the Twins a better team. All of them will likely be available at the trade deadline.

 

The Twins absolutely need to add an impact arm to finally win a postseason series but they don’t need to add him prior to Opening Day.

 

Take a deep breath and don’t forget the 2020 Minnesota Twins will be a very good team.

 

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[mikelink45]

Let's just add that Cleveland is losing its grip, but the White Sox are not sitting still (I keep forgetting who the other two Major League teams in the division are.  Oh well we can continue with AAA Detroit and KC.  

 

Since I have asked about the rotation enough, the question remains - who's on first? 

https://youtu.be/2ZksQd2fC6Y

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Singing a free-agent pitcher to a long-term deal just because you can is similar to drafting Christian Ponder in the first-round. Just because you can do it doesn’t mean you should do it.

 

This article seems rushed. I have a lot of problems with this analogy of Christian Ponder!

 

Seriously though.. the suggestion that it’s easier to acquire a very good starting pitcher at the trade deadline also seems dubious to me— shouldn’t they have done that last July?

[TL]

100% agree. Especially as it relates to making a trade. See how the season plays out, who is having a great season on a bad team, and go get him at the deadline. Save your prospects for that.

[jud6312]

Wow. This reads like it was written by the Twins PR team.

 

The Sox don't need to be 30 have better than they were last year. If they're 15 games better (possible) and the Twins are 15 games worse (also possible), well, look where you're at.

 

The goal should not be to trot out a team that can compete in the Central, it should be a team that can compete - not just participate - in the playoffs.

[prouster]

Wow. This reads like it was written by the Twins PR team.

 

The Sox don't need to be 30 have better than they were last year. If they're 15 games better (possible) and the Twins are 15 games worse (also possible), well, look where you're at.

 

The goal should not be to trot out a team that can compete in the Central, it should be a team that can compete - not just participate - in the playoffs.

I don’t think this is the case. Aside from Giolito (and Kopech if things go right for him), the Sox rotation is hot steaming garbage. They’ve got some guys who can hit, though.

 

Edit: I guess Reynaldo Lopez is good, too.

[Elliot]

The Twins had a good starting rotation throughout 3/4 of the year in 2019. The rotation we saw in the playoffs was a shadow of the one that contributed to a 101 win season. Pineda, at the time the functional ace, was suspended. Berrios, the de facto ace, had run out of gas and was nowhere near the pitcher he had been earlier. Perez had a good run early but had been overexposed. Gibson was sick for almost the entire year, including spring training, but still managed to contribute. I have confidence in the FO. They have shown an ability find quality in the best, but most difficult manner. Rather than chasing big names and throwing $ at past performance, they acquired Pineda, Odorizzi, and Perez without mortgaging the future in terms of either money or prospects. I believe that prior to Spring Training they will bring in another arm to fill a role in the rotation w/o giving up significant prospects or spending $20M/yr for 4 or 5 yrs.

I am however intrigued with spending bigger $ for a longer period of time for a very good 2 way 3rd baseman.

[rdehring]

Really enjoyed reading this, Andrew,  especially your writing style and outlook for the season ahead.

 

Agree that come July, the Twins may be able to pick up a top starting pitcher rental much cheaper than today.  And that's ok as I expect they will be in a good position come July, although I am a glass half full guy and have been wrong before.

[dbminn]

The Twins will play the first 45 days or so with two veteran SP - Odo and Berrios. They will still have two open slots after Pineda returns. They need at least one ok veteran to start the season.

 

The Twins core rotation started an unusually high number of games last year. Don't expect it to happen again. If Berrios or Odo go down, they will be in trouble. I'm confident that at least one of Dobnak, Thorpe, Graterol and Smeltzer will take control of a starting spot. Not three.

 

The FO has allowed this problem to happen. I agree Ryu isn't necessarily the solution. Problem is, the FO also let short-term bounceback candidates Porcello and Gaussman go off the board too. At last year's deadline, the FO offer to Toronto must have been pretty weak. They said the Jays didn't even bother asking for a Twins final offer for Stroman.

 

Don't sleep on Cleveland. They won 93 games last year without Kluber and could do it again. Clevinger, Bieber and Carrasco will still be at the top of the rotation. I doubt Lindor will be traded. If the Dodgers come through, Cleveland will likely get Lux in return. 

 

There's still plenty of time for the Twins to solve the issue by making a trade this offseason. I'm willing to give the FO the benefit of the doubt until then. But a pragmatic view of the current rotation should be one of concern. Only a romantic hopes Cleveland will be worse, at least two young SP step up, and they will solve any problems at the 2020 trade deadline.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Thanks for a fun, uplifting article, which makes sense.

[tony&rodney]

"It doesn't matter who's right or wrong, the future's now and the past is gone."

Yes, the Twins missed on being proactive the last two years in trades and on the free agent market.

The ship has sailed on Cole, Wheeler, Bumgarner, Teheran, Bundy, and Grandal.

The team has some real strong possibilities still: Ryu and/or Keuchal on decent contracts; Donaldson; trades for someone like Alcantara; and maybe a shot at Alex Wood are fair choices.There is a good chance that the Twins play 2020 with their outfield intact and not the tattered, injured mess it was from late August to the end of the year. I think the infield and catcher spots will be better too. The young pitchers could blossom as well. Now is a good time to add a few pieces to the stocking. It can be done.

[drivlikejehu]

The OP is generally in line with my attitude, but I do think the Twins need another starter in the off-season. Between Pineda's suspension and the ever-present risk of injuries, depth is lacking at the moment. 

 

Trade deadline prices can get inflated, which also makes me wary of relying on that option except either out of desperation or due to an unexpected opportunity. 

 

There's a lot of time left in the off-season, so I'm not concerned.

[adorduan]

 

"It doesn't matter who's right or wrong, the future's now and the past is gone."

Yes, the Twins missed on being proactive the last two years in trades and on the free agent market.

The ship has sailed on Cole, Wheeler, Bumgarner, Teheran, Bundy, and Grandal.

The team has some real strong possibilities still: Ryu and/or Keuchal on decent contracts; Donaldson; trades for someone like Alcantara; and maybe a shot at Alex Wood are fair choices.There is a good chance that the Twins play 2020 with their outfield intact and not the tattered, injured mess it was from late August to the end of the year. I think the infield and catcher spots will be better too. The young pitchers could blossom as well. Now is a good time to add a few pieces to the stocking. It can be done.

Care to explain why you think this is going to happen?  Garver going to OPS 1.000? I think we should expect a drop off from last year at the catcher position.

[tony&rodney]

 

Care to explain why you think this is going to happen?  Garver going to OPS 1.000? I think we should expect a drop off from last year at the catcher position.

Fair.

I expect regression from Garver at the plate. I do think he continues to evolve as a tough guy to pitch to who has quality at bats and also expect he gets more plate appearances in 2020. He had an amazing season last year. I do think he and Avila will form an improved catching corps. Despite the fast start by Castro, there is room for improvement behind the plate by the Twins. I was also lumping the infield and catching spots together and while there is no way the home runs repeat, the overall quality of at bats and defense can improve across the board (c and if). 

Was I practicing positive pragmatism? Yes. The off-season has moved slowly for the Twins and I am trying to channel my disappointment thus far into some optimism.

[Brandon]

If the Twins don't make the upgrades, then it makes it harder for me to justify upgrading my tickets to the ones that cost 3 & 4 times as much. That may not seem like much to the Twins owners but I know I'm not the only one who has to make deductions like this. Do I pay for the $10. Ticket, $25, or $100. If I feel the Twins are all in I will gladly buy the $100 tickets. Right now I am at $25 ticket. I want to feel like I should buy the expensive tickets to keep from missing out.

[DocBauer]

I enjoyed the OP and the subtle reminder there is still time to make a move and it doesn't have to happen today.

 

But I became nauseous after reading the Ponder reminder. All that therapy gone to waste now!

[rdehring]

 

I enjoyed the OP and the subtle reminder there is still time to make a move and it doesn't have to happen today.

But I became nauseous after reading the Ponder reminder. All that therapy gone to waste now!

As a life long Packer fan, I loved the Ponder comment.  And yes, come Tuesday morning I will be ok following my Packer loss Monday evening.

[old nurse]

Regression can be a brutal thing. Last year the White Sox got career years out of Giolito, Moncada, Anderson, McCann and Beckham.  They still won only 71 games. Luis Robert and Madrigal could be the real deal to add to the mix with Grandal. Is that 15 games better? The same regression that the fans here say can happen to the Twins players can nappen in Chicago.

[denarded]

Agree with 90% of OP. Well written article. My only complaint is the term 'Arguably' It's become my own personal drinking game when reading TD. It's as bad as 'Moist'

[h2oface]

If a team is Practicing Pragmatism, it is trying to improve the team with all its resources all the time, and especially during the offseason. And not to just sustain a competitive team, but to at least try to make a championship team out of its competitive team, if that is what is in hand. To just always be interested, and never capture the prize, is not practicing pragmatism in my view. It is being inept. One can still fail, and the whole team can go down with injuries, but at least you did something instead of just hoped what you had would not regress or just maintain, but get better. That may happen, too. But if one wants to compete in the playoffs against the very best teams after getting there with a competitive team against teams that half were not close to competitive, one must be pragmatic and work to improve the team (not just retain what you already had), especially with the money available, the players available, the prospects for trading available, and the highest level of starting pitching being the prize.

 

If the goal is just to contend, one doesn't need to do much with this team.

 

If the goal is to be the only team to win the championship, then it is pragmatic to act before the prizes are all taken. (And now there is only Ryu left....)

[jrod23]

 

I don’t think this is the case. Aside from Giolito (and Kopech if things go right for him), the Sox rotation is hot steaming garbage. They’ve got some guys who can hit, though.

Edit: I guess Reynaldo Lopez is good, too. 

 

This rotation is stacked with 1st rounders.

 

Giolito - Tough to replicate this past season, but he straight Gerrit Cole'd his K rate.  Very impressive.

 

Kopech - Fresh of Tommy John.  Key word 'fresh'.  Take that either way.  Kid can hit 105mph.  He'll throw a walk every 2 innings, but if Nuke LaLoosh could figure it out, this guy just may.  He's come a long way since he was a gangly high schooler.

 

Rodon - Young w/lots of upside, yet plenty of downside.

 

Fulmer - ...I'm out.

 

HOWEVER...WE COULDN'T COME CLOSE TO A 3 YEAR-$55 MILLION DEAL FOR DALLAS FREAKIN' KEUCHEL?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?  I'm not his biggest fan in the world, but $55 million over 3 years?  What the F?  Again, I say, I want to be a mouse in the room when Falvey and Lavine are discussing this team's issues.  I understand he hasn't really put together a 200+ inning season, but man.  I'd gamble owner's money for that price.

 

[jrod23]

Forgot to mention Dylan Cease.  He'll be a contender too after he takes his lumps.  Also, there's a guy named Dane Dunning.  He'll probably strike a lot of our guys out eventually.

 

Go Twins.

[prouster]

This rotation is stacked with 1st rounders.

 

Giolito - Tough to replicate this past season, but he straight Gerrit Cole'd his K rate. Very impressive.

 

Kopech - Fresh of Tommy John. Key word 'fresh'. Take that either way. Kid can hit 105mph. He'll throw a walk every 2 innings, but if Nuke LaLoosh could figure it out, this guy just may. He's come a long way since he was a gangly high schooler.

 

Rodon - Young w/lots of upside, yet plenty of downside.

 

Fulmer - ...I'm out.

 

HOWEVER...WE COULDN'T COME CLOSE TO A 3 YEAR-$55 MILLION DEAL FOR DALLAS FREAKIN' KEUCHEL?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? I'm not his biggest fan in the world, but $55 million over 3 years? What the F? Again, I say, I want to be a mouse in the room when Falvey and Lavine are discussing this team's issues. I understand he hasn't really put together a 200+ inning season, but man. I'd gamble owner's money for that price.

Cease and Rodon are not good. Kopech has a lot of upside, but who knows what he’ll be coming back from TJ. Lopez is good. Giolito has a great season, but the year before he was one of the worst starters in MLB. They absolutely have question marks.

 

Keuchel is a solid arm, but his best days are very likely behind him. They’ll almost certainly be better than last year, but I think a lot will have to go right for them to finish with a winning record.

[jrod23]

 

Cease and Rodon are not good. Kopech has a lot of upside, but who knows what he’ll be coming back from TJ. Lopez is good. Giolito has a great season, but the year before he was one of the worst starters in MLB. They absolutely have question marks.

Keuchel is a solid arm, but his best days are very likely behind him. They’ll almost certainly be better than last year, but I think a lot will have to go right for them to finish with a winning record.

 

Agree to disagree on Cease.  He's got too much ahead to say he's not good.  However, I agree completely on Giolito.  Goose laid a golden egg.

 

Question marks?  Yes, but count them out of it?  No.  I'd love for this to be the early 00's where we have little resistance, but it's not.  Cleveland is clearly backing down, and Chicago is clearly amping up.  We're still better, but we need to prove it.

[drivlikejehu]

I think the White Sox have a good chance to be over .500 due to the fact that, like the Twins and Indians, they get to beat up on the Tigers and Royals for a significant percentage of their games. They're a step behind the Twins and Indians but far ahead of those 100-loss clubs.

[Jham]

Moncada, Eloy Jiminez, Giolito, Kopech,Cease, Fulmer, Rodon...

 

That's a TON of young blue chip talent. Like not top 100, like top 10 to top overall talent... Sox are scary THIS year.

[old nurse]

Talent on paper is pretty useless. The results of this talent after 3-5 years has been inconsistent or non existent

Chicago's  infield defense is worse than the Twins   Keuchel may have a problem

[jorgenswest]

Second base

 

White Sox ranked 8th and Twins 29th according to Fangraphs WAR. They had a net +14 DRS compared to the Twins and 13.2 by DRS. With more Arraez at 2B this year the Twins can only go backwards here.

 

Shortstop

 

White Sox 29th and Twins 30th. The Twins UZR at SS was -15.9 vs. -9.2 for the White Sox.

 

Third base

 

White Sox 3rd. Twins 25th.

 

Keuchel may have disagreed with the opinion that Chicago’s infield defense is worse than the Twins.

[rv78]

This article suggests the Twins will be able to add an arm that will make the difference at the trade deadline next season. (If they are in contention). The ONLY way to do that is to trade. Seems to me that is a limited option you are putting yourself into. Quality Free Agent pitcher after pitcher has gone off the board and still nothing for the rotation. The WhiteSox have made themselves better in the Free Agent market. Lets take a quick look at some of the players the Twins have acquired so far outside of the organization.

Pitchers:

Tyler Clippard will help the bullpen.

Danny Coulombe didn't even play last year and comes as a minor league invitee. 

Caleb Thielbar hasn't pitched in the big leagues since 2015. WOW this is a reach!

Ryan Garton appeared in 2 games for Seattle last year and didn't pitch in the majors in 2018. Another Hope and a Prayer.

Blaine Hardy another arm for the bullpen that isn't really an upgrade over what we already have.

Matt Wisler has a career ERA over 5. Hello minor leagues.

 

Hitters:

Alex Avila replacement for Castro who has a weaker bat than Castro. 

Jack Reinheimer, Tom Telis, Wilfredo Tovar, Juan Graterol might as well lump all these guys into 1 catagory, YAWN!

 

And there you have it. It probably isn't the entire list but without a ton of research it's what I could find. Hardly significant moves outside of Clippard anywhere. Is Terry Ryan running this team incognito? 

 

Feel free to list the WhiteSox signings. I can tell you they have been vastly more impressive and significant. It looks like the Twins are content to STOCK their minor league teams, and not UPGRADE the major league team. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

Trade deadline prices can get inflated, which also makes me wary of relying on that option except either out of desperation or due to an unexpected opportunity. 

What would be unexpected about being in a position to compete?