Front Page: A Message To The Front Office

[Matt Braun]

This has been one absolutely crazy offseason so far. Teams that don’t usually shell out money have done exactly that and some of the strangest trades have occurred (Corey Kluber to the Rangers, though?). But in all of this change there is something that has anchored us back in the reality of the offseason; the Twins continue to come up short when it comes to acquiring impact talentThe winter meetings came and went and all that came out of the Twins’ camp were rumors and speculation regarding potential targets and offers made to free agents who signed elsewhere. This is, of course, a part of the monotonous cycle of free agency as not every day or week or month can be exciting regarding the moves being made. A few moves have been made but most of them have been foundational in nature and not transactions that catapult the team into the upper echelon of baseball.

 

Before I go further, I want to make something quite clear; I have mostly been a fan of what the front office headed by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have done since taking over after the worst season in Twins’ history. They have worked wonders in upgrading the minor league system so that players have more personally-tailored coaching and are better suited for major league play when they get the call. They have also been incredibly pragmatic in making moves with the future in mind while avoiding some of the pitfalls that come with being overzealous in the free agent market as a team looking to right the ship. I feel like I have to get this out of the way because sometimes criticism is mistaken for an outright dislike of someone/something as a whole when that isn’t the case.

 

So, with all of this being said, I have one major point of anxiety that worries me regarding how the rest of the offseason will go.

 

Almost a year ago was when Thad Levine dropped his somewhat infamous quotes regarding when a team should make big moves in which he used analogies that included both open windows and neck stomping. The comments didn’t go over particularly well with Twins fans who looked at the remaining free agents who could have impacted the team while also eyeballing the payroll drop from 2018 into 2019 and couldn’t quite understand the hesitation.

 

This type of risk-averse thinking regarding transactions is nothing new in this landscape of baseball but luckily for Levine, the 2019 team did pretty well so his comments can be somewhat forgiven.

 

The thing is, we so far have yet to see this promise to eventually make big moves actually pan out. The Twins had their first shot at proving themselves last season at the trade deadline and acquired two relievers (albeit good ones, at least at the time) when it was painfully apparent that they needed one more starting pitcher as well. We all know how that ended so I don’t think that I need to dwell on this specific instance too much but this decision gave me reasons to pause. Levine specifically stated that they prefer to make big moves when their team is in the driver’s seat, so what gives? Was the position they were in at the deadline not good enough?

 

Many people will point to the Pohlads and their notorious cheapness but I don’t believe that to be the case in these situations. They offered 100 million dollars to Zack Wheeler and Darren Wolfson reported that ownership had no limits regarding their chase for Madison Bumgarner (personally, I think holding back on going five years was smart but that’s a different topic). Both misses hurt but both players also seemed pretty dead-set on joining the locations of each team respectively, so some slack can be cut there. But when will the reasons for a player not joining the team finally end and the script gets flipped? It almost feels like never at this point.

 

This inability to walk the walk is where I have a great level of anxiety regarding the rest of the offseason. They balked once when it came to making a big splash and I tend to believe that executives are consistent in how they make moves. Being gun-shy once would lead me to believe that they will be hesitant once more in actually fulfilling their promises and in a division where the second-place team is literally begging to be buried, this would be a major mistake.

 

The mindset of a lot of front offices is almost always focused on the downside of a move. They look at a player like Hyun-Jin Ryu and think “well, what happens if his injury-prone past continues and he declines rapidly” instead of thinking “what if he’s over these issues and we can snag a pitcher who finished second in Cy Young voting”? We can debate the possibilities of both outcomes and weigh them to reach the optimal outcome, but is that really the way to go about it? Didn’t we just see two teams in the World Series who both took tremendous risks to get there?

 

The exercise in self-discipline in the Twins front office so far regarding these types of moves has been overbearing. Most of us don’t live our lives as purely utilitarian beings with no need to give in to the enjoyments that life has to offer. We like to live a little and do something that might be bad for us because it just feels so damn good to do it in the moment- that’s one of the major characteristics of being a human.

 

With the way the Twins are set up, they can afford to take on a little risk and act in a way that a fan would. They already have Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler locked up long term and most every other major core player is either pre-arb or in early stages of arbitration so they will never be cheaper than they are currently. There will never be an absolutely perfect opportunity to make these kinds of moves so to wait for such a fairy-tale opening would be foolish.

 

The payroll is low, the minor league talent is deep, and the major league team is the best it has been in a long time. Now is absolutely the time to step on the gas and it is completely up to you guys in the front office to do it. The offseason isn’t over yet but the chances to make the impact moves they promised seemingly diminish with each passing day. So, impress me, do something out of your comfort level and change the future of the Twins forever.

 

What do you think? Do the Twins need to own up to what they've been promising? Leave a comment and join the discussion.

 

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[sorney]

Literally could not agree more

 

[drivlikejehu]

This is just a really long post regurgitating the same points being made over and over; I'm not sure how it constitutes a "message to the front office" (to whom it's not even addressed) or what the purpose of it is. 

 

Saying that the front office should "act like a fan" is just about the worst suggestion possible in sports. Contrary to what a lot of people on here seem to think, it's actually pretty hard running an MLB organization. They do consider all of their options and do consider all kinds of different scenarios.

 

The difference is that they are held accountable for their decisions. Fans aren't. The actual professionals have a lot on the line. Message board posters have nothing on the line. 

 

If someone has a question or an idea, by all means, discussion is a good thing. Restating mindless, blanket criticism does not generate meaningful discussion and really is a waste of time for everyone involved.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Thanks for writing this.

 

If not now, when?

 

The Twins are still anywhere from $25-40 million under the 50 percent of salary benchmark, but someone can correct me. And now there’s little left to spend it on. Very disappointed.

 

 

Correction: revenue

[Richie the Rally Goat]

This! The window can’t get much wider.

[Jham]

This is just a really long post regurgitating the same points being made over and over; I'm not sure how it constitutes a "message to the front office" (to whom it's not even addressed) or what the purpose of it is.

 

Saying that the front office should "act like a fan" is just about the worst suggestion possible in sports. Contrary to what a lot of people on here seem to think, it's actually pretty hard running an MLB organization. They do consider all of their options and do consider all kinds of different scenarios.

 

The difference is that they are held accountable for their decisions. Fans aren't. The actual professionals have a lot on the line. Message board posters have nothing on the line.

 

If someone has a question or an idea, by all means, discussion is a good thing. Restating mindless, blanket criticism does not generate meaningful discussion and really is a waste of time for everyone involved.

But criticizing criticism of the front office isn't a waste of time? What about my post criticizing the criticizing of the front office criticism?

 

You may consider the article regurgitation of other complaints, I saw it as a summary. Reasonable, direct, and apropos given the end of winter meetings.

[hugelycat]

I'll be disappointed if we don't sign Ryu or Donaldson, and/or make trades for players around that value. Go for immediate upgrades now. It's ok if we lose value later on, whether from overpaying salary or losing prospects. That's just how MLB works.

[mikelink45]

Will the FO read this?  DO they care?  Is there anything left we should be excited by? Can we add up all the times we were second or third or fourth in the bidding?  If you do not want four years - over pay for three.  Do something - oh I forgot - Theilbar, etc, etc. 

[h2oface]

I don't think this article is mindless, blanket criticism, nor a waste of my time. 

 

Time to sign Donaldson, before he is gone, too. Josh was back. Pitching? I think that ship has already sailed. Ahoy.

[h2oface]

 

This! The window can’t get much wider.

 It seems the counter weight rope broke and the window slammed shut.

[Richard Swerdlick]

I believe that we are likely to see at least one significant trade this off season as Falvine cash in some of our prospect chips and /or move on from Eddie Rosario.

[CharlieDee]

 I'm fairly certain they're aware of what the fans think. These guys are obviously not risk takers. Last season they made some good moves, but they were all safe, short contracts that didn't carry a lot of risk.Expecting these guys to offer any bold, long term contracts just isn't going to happen. It doesn't matter what they say. They are real pro's when it comes to talking BS, as we have all seen. 

[kdag23]

Drivkikejehu - Yes, running a major league team is a hard job and there are actually a lot of jobs that are hard. But does that prevent the people doing them from doing their absolute best? I think the FO is fortunate that they're running a club in this market; in Philly or Boston, or New York can you imagine having a team so close to being able to contend for a ring and not address a need that can get you there, which in our case was starting pitching? I think by in large this fan base makes it easy on these guys, which wouldn't be the case in other markets. Yes, I imagine others will be quick to point out that we're not NY or Philly and we can't spend like them blah blah blah. Well there's more than spending there's the trade market and maybe they will actually do something but I'm not holding my breath. We have loads of trade chips we could use but so far they have been unwilling to use them. I think the thing that bothers a lot of people is that the goal of this ownership or FO isn't really to win a title. When we won in '87 and '91 it was in part due to solid pitching that was acquired through trades. It just seems like it's field a good team, get people to the ballpark, just play it safe.

[ToddlerHarmon]

Yes. From the fans' perspective, 29 teams lose every year. If only one team reaps the ultimate fan reward, there is little to be gained from taking on an average level of risk. Put your chips in on a player. Sixth best team is not what you are playing for.

[specialiststeve]

Evidently folks don't understand how the FA market works. Top end FA are going to go to top teams in Large markets or go to places that they have history or interest in .... Baumgarner to Arizona because his horses are there... Wow.

 

Front office is working to try to land the talent but if the agent and or player doesn't think it is a fit they are going to go elsewhere. There is a reason why players tend not to come to MN.. past has been $ but also the  spring weather...

 

Likely going to need to spin a trade for a starter and use our depth in the minor league to  fill the gaps or to be part of the trade.

 

Folks this is the reality and has been for years.. getting pissed at the Front office for not getting Cole, Strasburg, etc is pointless and beyond what anyone in that position is going to be able to do. Sucks but is true....

[Blackjack]

 

Evidently folks don't understand how the FA market works. Top end FA are going to go to top teams in Large markets or go to places that they have history or interest in .... Baumgarner to Arizona because his horses are there... Wow.

 

Front office is working to try to land the talent but if the agent and or player doesn't think it is a fit they are going to go elsewhere. There is a reason why players tend not to come to MN.. past has been $ but also the  spring weather...

 

Likely going to need to spin a trade for a starter and use our depth in the minor league to  fill the gaps or to be part of the trade.

 

Folks this is the reality and has been for years.. getting pissed at the Front office for not getting Cole, Strasburg, etc is pointless and beyond what anyone in that position is going to be able to do. Sucks but is true....

 

You are correct, until baseball implements a salary cap, the big boys - the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. are always going to have an advantage, a very big advantage.  If the Twins blow it on a free agent, pick the wrong one, he gets hurt, etc, the Twins are hamstrung for years. The big boys just go sign another one.
 

[Blackjack]

The Twins are a lot more fun to follow when the are competitive, have a >.500 record, than when they are 23 games out of first place. I'd rather see them be competitive 8 out of 10 years vs pushing all their chips in, signing 1-2 big buck free agents or making big trades, maybe making the World Series -- and then having a string of 5-6 sub .500 years.  

 

If they keep a young competitive core, sign an occasional free agent (can you say Nelson Cruz!!!), stay above .500, they'll keep me happy.

 

 

[Linus]

I have no problem if the FO doesn’t wade into free agency. It’s not a good long term plan. But then they have to spend their other currency which is prospects. Trade assets you do have for assets you don’t have. Unfortunately they don’t seem to be comfortable doing that either which is not good

[Major League Ready]

 

Evidently folks don't understand how the FA market works. Top end FA are going to go to top teams in Large markets or go to places that they have history or interest in .... Baumgarner to Arizona because his horses are there... Wow.

 

Front office is working to try to land the talent but if the agent and or player doesn't think it is a fit they are going to go elsewhere. There is a reason why players tend not to come to MN.. past has been $ but also the  spring weather...

 

Likely going to need to spin a trade for a starter and use our depth in the minor league to  fill the gaps or to be part of the trade.

 

Folks this is the reality and has been for years.. getting pissed at the Front office for not getting Cole, Strasburg, etc is pointless and beyond what anyone in that position is going to be able to do. Sucks but is true....

 

I really wanted Wheeler because I thought he had the capacity (stuff) to elevate his game during the playoffs and be a difference maker. However, I was engaged once too. Family is strong draw and getting bent out of shape because a FA had other priorities. I also listened to Vanwagenen and Duquette which caused me to question my position. His former team and at least one GM were quite sure there were better ways to spend the money. I guess the point is that I was not so sure about Wheeler that I was going to get bent out of shape given these considerations.

 

Ryu could end up being the best option outside of Cole / Strassburg so I am not going to react until he is off the board and even then, we have 3 months to make a trade.

[bird]

I'm gonna wait to read this until February.

[rdehring]

I read the headline, Matt, and thought here we go again.  Well, that was wrong as I was pleasantly surprised.  Yes, we all know much of what you wrote and I suspect the FO would agree with most of it.

 

I believe these guys have a set of guidelines that they may bend, but won't break.  I see that type of discipline as a requirement in managing a mid-market baseball team.

 

No matter how much talk there is about the second group of pitchers, let's admit there were only two free agents this year that would have given the team a much better chance at a Series win.  And there was almost zero probability of getting either to the land of 10,0000 lakes.  The next group has talent, but every one of them also had a lot of warts, including age, health and making that move from the National to American League.  It appears they were very interested in Wheeler, who unfortunately had no interest in coming here once his minimum contract requirements were met by a team in an area he wanted to be in.

 

Although Ryu remains, we are now at the third group led by Kuechel.  I expect they have had some trade talks, however, won't get serious on that front until they have worked thru this next group of potential signings.  But I don't see them forgetting about their guidelines (both dollars and contract length) when dealing with this group just to fill that #4 slot, and they shouldn't.  

 

Yes, they need at least one more experienced starter.  It is possible they have always thought he would arrive via trade.  They just have to work thru the free agent process before finalizing that deal, be it a big one or more similar to the Odorizzi deal.  Meanwhile we need to understand they have a plan and as hard as it is, be patient as well.

[spanman2]

 

You are correct, until baseball implements a salary cap, the big boys - the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, etc. are always going to have an advantage, a very big advantage.  If the Twins blow it on a free agent, pick the wrong one, he gets hurt, etc, the Twins are hamstrung for years. The big boys just go sign another one.
 

Bingo...somebody buy that man a beer.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Evidently folks don't understand how the FA market works. Top end FA are going to go to top teams in Large markets or go to places that they have history or interest in .... Baumgarner to Arizona because his horses are there... Wow.

 

Front office is working to try to land the talent but if the agent and or player doesn't think it is a fit they are going to go elsewhere. There is a reason why players tend not to come to MN.. past has been $ but also the  spring weather...

 

Likely going to need to spin a trade for a starter and use our depth in the minor league to  fill the gaps or to be part of the trade.

 

Folks this is the reality and has been for years.. getting pissed at the Front office for not getting Cole, Strasburg, etc is pointless and beyond what anyone in that position is going to be able to do. Sucks but is true....

 

This is such BS it's not funny. 

 

I hate this argument, absolutely hate it. Yes, if the offers are the same, then players will pick where they want to go. However, when you are in the position the Twins are, you have to identify EXACTLY who you want and blow them out of the water with a deal. Madbum gets 4/85? Offer him 5/110. He won't turn it down, I will promise you that. 

It cannot be done all the time. But doing so when you are in this position is more than acceptable. You are paying a guy 4 or 5 years for basically the performance they will give you in year 1 or 2. 

 

Don't like doing that? Fine, draft and develop pitching that is able to fill that role. Or "gasp" trade some of the zillion positional player prospects you have in order to balance out your organization. Having piles of good position players doesn't do you any good if you have no pitching to go along with it. 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

 

Although Ryu remains, we are now at the third group led by Kuechel.  I expect they have had some trade talks, however, won't get serious on that front until they have worked thru this next group of potential signings.  But I don't see them forgetting about their guidelines (both dollars and contract length) when dealing with this group just to fill that #4 slot, and they shouldn't.  

 

Yes, they need at least one more experienced starter.  It is possible they have always thought he would arrive via trade.  They just have to work thru the free agent process before finalizing that deal, be it a big one or more similar to the Odorizzi deal.  Meanwhile we need to understand they have a plan and as hard as it is, be patient as well.

 

If you know you aren't going to be able to sign anyone, there shouldn't be time wasted there. Work the trades. Get out in front of it before the rest of the squads pivot their focus and beat you to the punch. 

 

Waiting around to make offers both on the trade front and Free Agency has killed them so far this offseason. 

 

Everything doesn't have to be a bargain. You don't have to WIN every transaction. When you are in the position the Twins are, you need to identify who it is you want and make sure you get them. 

[MABB1959]

I didn't expect much mostly because it has been a well known fact that players do not want to come here.  I would say it is mostly because they don't see the ownership going all out to win a WS.  There was a lot of hub bub in 2015 and 2017 when the team still had a good chance but decided to throw in the towel and off load some of their decent players at the trade deadline.  So they are kind of stuck.  Some of the players have the Twins in their contract as a place they can't be traded to.  The Pohlad's or FO always say they will spend but never to.  They haven't been to the WS since 1991 and haven't won a play-off series in forever.   Also in the past the coaches had their favorites and they played whether they deserved it or not.  That really changed this year for the better. players know they need to earn their playing time.  Once they get one big name and maybe go a round or two in the playoffs more players will want to come here. 

 

[Riverbrian]

I am a big believer in this front office. 

 

However, here's the deal. Need is a funny thing.

 

When you place yourself in a position of need, you expose yourself to the possibility of being a victim of freewill. The Twins or any intending team that needs to jump into the free agent waters are exposed to the possibility of their preferred free agent having Arizona Horse Dreams and they can't do anything about that. Except not put themselves in the position of having that need. 

 

We got need this year. If this taxes future years. That future tax or risk that Ryu is dead money in the 4th year or possibly every year of the contract must be baked in because we have need NOW and they got to do do something.   

 

As the solid free agent options fall off the board, they are forced to trade now. The trade will cost us prospects, those same prospects that they didn't want to part with back in Late July 2019. 

 

I'll wait until the team breaks camp to be fully critical but the FA door is about to close and Orange Pylons will be placed in that lane. 

[nicksaviking]

Unless we were expecting to get the 240M+ players, have we missed out on anyone this free agency so far other than Wheeler and Bumgarner (who many of us didn't want anyway)?

 

This free agent class looked great on paper, but it was front loaded with pipe dream players. I'm more interested in trades, I'll wait to make my judgment until I see those start coming into focus. Players can decide to make their bed anywhere they like as free agents, but we know when it comes to trades, the other team is just going to want the best return. Well probably not Cleveland, they'd likely not pick up our calls, but the other 28 teams.

[kdag23]

Yes, if there was a salary cap then problem solved. Wasn't the revenue sharing put in place by big market clubs to avoid a cap? Speaking of revenue sharing, how much do the Twins get, and how much of that actually goes into player acquisition? I honestly don't know but if you listen to some that are known to rant about these things it goes into Pohlads pockets. I know these people exaggerate but I'm just curious if the actual numbers are known.

[USAFChief]

 

The Twins are a lot more fun to follow when the are competitive, have a >.500 record, than when they are 23 games out of first place. I'd rather see them be competitive 8 out of 10 years vs pushing all their chips in, signing 1-2 big buck free agents or making big trades, maybe making the World Series -- and then having a string of 5-6 sub .500 years.  

 

If they keep a young competitive core, sign an occasional free agent (can you say Nelson Cruz!!!), stay above .500, they'll keep me happy.

I disagree with the "be competitive 8 of 10 years vs pushing all their chips in" theory, but I can understand the theory.

 

My problem with it is more along the lines of, what makes you think the Twins will be competitive for 8 of the next 10 years? Shouldn't they need to actually do that first, before you give them credit for such a conservative strategy? 

 

They've managed 4 seasons above .500 since moving into TF, and two of those were 83 and 85 win seasons that didn't even result in ALC championships. They haven't won a post season game, much less series, in forever. 

 

I realize there's a new FO in place, but you're asking for exactly the same strategy that got us nowhere under Ryan. 

 

No thanks. Push some chips in once in a while for a change. Let's try that for a few decades, and then compare. 

[Mike Sixel]

Unless we were expecting to get the 240M+ players, have we missed out on anyone this free agency so far other than Wheeler and Bumgarner (who many of us didn't want anyway)?

 

This free agent class looked great on paper, but it was front loaded with pipe dream players. I'm more interested in trades, I'll wait to make my judgment until I see those start coming into focus. Players can decide to make their bed anywhere they like as free agents, but we know when it comes to trades, the other team is just going to want the best return. Well probably not Cleveland, they'd likely not pick up our calls, but the other 28 teams.

Of Fangraphs top 23 starting pitchers, 18 are off the board. So, yes, they have missed on others..... Now, whether that is good or bad I don't know, but it isn't true only the undoable are gone.