I think it's Ryu or bust at this point. If he's healthy--big if--he meets the "impact" qualifier that came not from us, but from the front office.

 

Very hard to consider Keuchel an "impact" pitcher at this point. Better than all but 2 opening day options, to be sure, but that's not a difficult bar to leap.

Ryu had shoulder surgery in 2015 and elbow surgery in 2016.   If they had been more recent I would share your concern.   In 2018 he missed a chunk because of a groin injury.    I pulled a groin once and it took a really really long time to heal but once healed I never really thought about again.   Doesn't seem like a recurring kind of injury  In 2019 he had a neck strain towards the end and probably more out of precaution than anything else, he missed a few starts.    Again, I consider this a one and done kind of injury.   He pitched 187 innings and as far as I know is completely healthy right now.  If his elbow and shoulder surgeries had been more recent I would share your concern. but as is I don't see his health as a "big if" unless I am missing something.  

Kuechel was off my radar as being an big impact guy.    I just hadn't thought of him much but now looking at BR I see he is just a season removed from 204 innings and a 3.75 AL ERA.    Missed half of last season for no reason I am aware of except for holding out for better contract.    33 quality starts out of 53 the last two years is a better percentage than Berrios or any other Twin the last two years.    Yesterday I would have agreed with you but on further review I think he would definitely qualify as big impact.

 

I see many people prefer to see Dobnak and/or Smeltzer get clobbered for 150 innings this year.

I just don’t understand why someone would be against signing Keuchel, given the teams current circumstances. Makes no sense to care about a midding contract for a middling starting pitcher (which, grant you, puts you near the top of the pecking order in the Twins system). That’s just how brainwashed the local media has people right now. It’s wild.

Nope.  I prefer to see Dobnak pitch great for 180 innings this year.

Pass

You guys might be right but it still baffles me how a guy's most recent season includes 187 innings and runner up in Cy Young does not rate highly and a guy (Wheeler) that didn't finish and has never finished in the top 11 was one of baseballs most highly sought guys. Does actual run prevention or recent history count at all?

I think with Ryu and Wheeler, that Wheeler wins the age battle. I think people right or wrong fear the age thing with Ryu.

Keuchel's Cy Young was 5 years ago and he's had several injuries and not so great seasons since that one fantastic outlier. I think he's serviceable but he has the kind of pitching style/profile where any given year at the age of 31 he could plunge into mediocrity. The control/groundball type of pitcher profile has a ceiling that only goes so high because it takes perfection on every single pitch to succeed. The floor is a pitcher you don't want to put out there every 5th day.

 

You could dream of the possibilities of Wheeler's future just by watching him, and he's been more valuable than Keuchel in each of the last two seasons by a considerable amount. Teams probably had their own ideas of tweaks they could make that would turn him into the next Gerrit Cole, which is why his price was so much higher than anticipated.

I think age affects the pitchers that throw hard more than the control guys. Otherwise Keuchel should have been cooked years ago.

And what would his ERA be if it took into account all of the runs scored on errors that the Twins very poor infield defense gives up? Because those runs count too. He's an extreme groundball pitcher on a team constructed to avoid ground balls and chase down fly balls. He's just not a fit.

Well, if they are errors then technically his ERA wouldn't be affected at all. I think Keuchel is not as good as people make him out to be, but I don't think he is as bad as everyone makes him out to be either. I'd predict a 4.00 to a 4.20 era with 180 to 200 innings pitched in a full season. Wins and losses depend on a lot of other stuff, but I think he would man that 3rd or 4th spot in the rotation and allow the Twins to compete for the division. He won't lead them to the World Series, the Twins will have to Trade for that guy when July rolls around which at that point in time it would bump Keuchel down to the 5th spot, behind Pineda, Odorizzi, new guy, and Berrios. But until the Twins find that guy, I just feel that he solidifies their chances to win a few games. Where I don't have that much faith in Smeltzer's and Dobnak, I don't think those guys will even get to 150 innings this year. But again that's just my opinion.

Typical Twins move if they even make it. As of right now we’re looking to not even make the playoffs. Does anyone realize how many stars had to align last year just to win the division against Cleveland only to lose to the Yankees first round? Is the front office expecting to hit 500 home runs this year? That’s what it is going to take with this pitching staff. Are we sure Terry Ryan and the old boys club aren’t behind the wall pulling strings? These Twins are looking more and more like the 2000’s Twins. Will we be fooled again? Maybe 20 more years will bring a different front office that can deliver championship caliber teams to Minneapolis

I'd predict a 4.00 to a 4.20 era with 180 to 200 innings pitched in a full season.

In a league where the overall ERA was 4.60 in 2019, such a season would be a real asset. Not the ace we hope for, but better IMO than if we depend on multiple rookies for the spot he would take.

 

If you got to Fangraphs and sort by Team and Fielding by UZR at each infield position, last year the Twins were 5th worst at 3B, dead last at SS, 2nd worst at 2B and 9th worst at 1B.

 

Honestly until I checked now, I kind of thought we were harder on Polanco than he deserved. Guess not.

Thanks for answering my question and pulling that info together.  But now I wish I'd never asked. Good thing I use an electric razor.

If you sign Dallas, "Dallas" by Alan Jackson would need to be played at every game he starts. You'd also need to sign a defensive minded third baseman and move Sano to first to ensure those extra groundballs that Keuchel will produce. I think he's a better bet to stay healthy for the duration of his contract more than I do Ryu.

 

Doesn't sound like the Twins are interested in Keuchel from what I've read.

 

Thanks for answering my question and pulling that info together.  But now I wish I'd never asked. Good thing I use an electric razor.

19th by DRS for 1b 29 for 2b last ss, 18 3b

Inseide edge  ranked 9, 29, 25, and 15

... but Dobnak is a ground ball pitcher too... and so was Gibby until he wasn't. A good ground ball pitcher with a bad infield is still better than a bad pitcher with a bad infield. With our offense, a few additional singles shouldn't kill us.

We're still in on Donaldson. Donaldson plus Keuchel would be a heck of an offseason. Rotation of Berrios, Odo, Kuechel, Pineda and Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe/whichever is better would be, at least on paper, better than last year's rotation. 

 

Not a WS contending rotation, but good enough to win 95 games. An ace at the deadline+closer would push us over the edge. 

 

Somebody on here awhile back talked about how Arraez wasn't a bad fielding 3B. So another option might be:

 

1B: Sano

2B: Polanco

SS: Jose Iglesias

3B: Arraez

 

This would supplement a Keuchel signing...and help our defense overall. We have enough thump in our lineup to sacrifice power for defense. 

Sounds like the Nationals are in the lead for Donaldson if MLB traderumors is correct. At this point I'd rather Sano stay at 3B until they can shift him full time to DH. Find a a temporary solution until Alex Kirilloff is ready, maybe Kepler for half a season? 

Gonna have to go to Chicago in order to Get Dallas Kuechel now and it will cost prospects instead of Carl's Cash

 

 

What is the excuse the board is going to make on this one? Sell the team already.

 

Gonna have to go to Chicago in order to Get Dallas Kuechel now and it will cost prospects instead of Carl's Cash

Not sure about Metaphysics, but I am willing to bet that Carl did not take it with him...

That 4th year option wasn’t included in the valuation spreadsheet. Alas, another missed opportunity.

 

Not sure about Metaphysics, but I am willing to bet that Carl did not take it with him...

Meant more as a reflection of old money getting older

 

Pre-Moderator Note: That topic has been beat to death by several Million keystrokes in other topics

The good news is this should take Chicago out of the Ryu sweepstakes. It's either us or LA at this point....

 

Our next option is likely trade but for whom?

 

The good news is this should take Chicago out of the Ryu sweepstakes. It's either us or LA at this point....

Our next option is likely trade but for whom?

Pitt - Musgrove, Archer

Cin - Anyone other than Castillo (think he'd be too much of an ask)

Col - Gray, Marquez (see Castillo)

Bal - Means (SSS overpay possible)

Bos - Whoever they are willing to give away between Price and Sale (Not a Eovaldi fan)

Mia - MLB Lottery pick dude Hernandez?

Arz - Ray of Hope

 

Beginning to think Day after Christmas deals for Taijuan Walker and Jimmy Nelson will be the Impact Pitchers heading into Spring Training

Good money for Dallas. Not sure if really worth it.

 

Pitt - Musgrove, Archer

Cin - Anyone other than Castillo (think he'd be too much of an ask)

Col - Gray, Marquez (see Castillo)

Bal - Means (SSS overpay possible)

Bos - Whoever they are willing to give away between Price and Sale (Not a Eovaldi fan)

Mia - MLB Lottery pick dude Hernandez?

Arz - Ray of Hope

 

Beginning to think Day after Christmas deals for Taijuan Walker and Jimmy Nelson will be the Impact Pitchers heading into Spring Training

Cincy is trying to win this year.

 

Pitt - Musgrove, Archer

Cin - Anyone other than Castillo (think he'd be too much of an ask)

Col - Gray, Marquez (see Castillo)

Bal - Means (SSS overpay possible)

Bos - Whoever they are willing to give away between Price and Sale (Not a Eovaldi fan)

Mia - MLB Lottery pick dude Hernandez?

Arz - Ray of Hope

 

Beginning to think Day after Christmas deals for Taijuan Walker and Jimmy Nelson will be the Impact Pitchers heading into Spring Training

I see it being Pitt. I don't think Cin or Col trade until maybe mid-season. Or pay for Ryu.

 

Cincy is trying to win this year.

Wonder what that's like.

The top FA choices  left are Ryu, Wood, Nova, Hill and Bailey.

Wonder what that's like.

They’re fortunate to be located on the coast of the Ohio River. A huge draw!

I wonder if any 100 win team with such an obvious and glaring weakness has ever been so disinterested in improving their team.

 

Cincy is trying to win this year.

And they need an OF...CF they could trade from a surplus of SP's

 

I wonder if any 100 win team with such an obvious and glaring weakness has ever been so disinterested in improving their team.

 

You're right. Falvey has a deal with the Indians to tank the Twins on purpose. It all makes sense.