Front Page: Why Didn't the Twins Meet the Reasonable Asking Price for Pitcher Shun Yamaguchi?

[Matthew Lenz]

Before signing a two-year pact with the Toronto Blue Jays, Darren Wolfson reported the Twins were interested in right-handed pitcher Shun Yamaguchi from Japan. After signing for an average annual value (AAV) of just $3 million, it’s fair to wonder why the Twins didn’t press harder.At only $6 million in total salary plus a posting fee of $1.5 million (per Japanese language site Sanspo.com via MLB Trade Rumors), the Twins could have taken a small risk on a pitcher who could have provided a very solid return. The new regime has been known to do short, small pacts like the one Yamaguchi signed and, for once, it seems as though location and climate wouldn’t have held a potential impact free agent from signing with the Twins. Below is a small scouting report on Yamaguchi with the limited information I could find on his career in Japan.

 

The Basics

Yamaguchi is 32, will be 33 in July, and has 14 seasons of pro ball experience. At 6’ 2”, 198 pounds he’s on the smaller side for a pitcher and his fastball tops out in the low-90’s. Although he spent some time as a relief pitcher earlier in his career, he has transitioned back to a starter since 2015 with a lot of success.. Being a relief pitcher saved some mileage on his arm as he’s only thrown 1,093 1/3 innings in those 14 seasons. One for sure knock on him dates back to 2017 when he was suspended for injuring a hospital security guard and damaging hospital property while being intoxicated.

 

The Statistics

From what I could find, Japan isn’t huge on the deep analytic stats like we are here stateside. The one site I did find was very poorly translated into English, so these numbers will be pretty straightforward. Since 2015, Yamaguchi has a 3.37 ERA, 8.87 K/9, 3.34 BB/9, and a 2.65 K/BB which would be considered average by MLB’s standards, but striking out almost one batter per inning is impressive when you top out in the low-90’s. Obviously this doesn’t translate perfectly as the hitters in the Nippon Professional Baseball Organization (NPB) are not nearly as good as the hitters in the MLB. Nonetheless, he’s coming off of his best season where he led the NPB in WAR by a pitcher and finished fifth in WPA, according to Essence of Baseball.

 

Yamaguchi v. Yusei Kikuchi

Just last season Yusei Kikuchi came to the Seattle Mariners from the NPB at 27-years-old. In roughly the same amount of innings in the NPB, Kikuchi had an ERA of 2.77 but was otherwise fairly similar to Yamaguchi. Seattle gave Kikuchi a three-year, $43 million contract and will pay a posting fee between $10.275 and $18.225 million depending on if the club options are exercised.

 

Kikuchi really struggled in 2019 in Seattle and it’s hard to know why things didn’t translate well, but in 2019 he was far too hittable. By FanGraphs measures he was above average in throwing strikes but below average in swinging strikes and chase percentage. This is further evident by looking at his heat map on Brooks Baseball and seeing that his 92.9 mile per hour fastball with plus movement was thrown in the middle of the strike zone almost a third of the time. Again, that’s not to say that Yamaguchi will have the same struggles and, if anything, it’s encouraging that a relatively simple fix could help Kikuchi find more success in 2020.

 

Based on their similarities from the NPB, it was reasonable to think that Yamaguchi would be looking for a similar contract that Kikuchi got from Seattle. On the other hand, it was shocking to see how cheap he signed with the Blue Jays for, all things considered. His numbers don’t scream “Yu Darvish” or “Masahiro Tanaka” by any means, but has the potential of being solid piece in the middle of a rotation with the possibility of moving to the bullpen.

 

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[CharlieDee]

Why indeed?  Seems like they don't want to meet the asking price for any starting pitcher.

[Dave Overlund]

Probably kept reading about how no one wants to play here! 

[LewFordLives]

Maybe they saw him as a reliever and lost interest when they resigned Romo. Although Yamaguchi is a righty, so who knows. There has to be some other reason besides the money that they felt he wasn't worth taking a flyer on.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Mod note: please keep to OP. We're talking about Yamaguchi.

[Dman]

 

Maybe they saw him as a reliever and lost interest when they resigned Romo. Although Yamaguchi is a righty, so who knows. There has to be some other reason besides the money that they felt he wasn't worth taking a flyer on.

 

I agree they go after certain traits that they believe make a pitcher successful and I am guessing he didn't meet them.  Also they have a playoff caliber team now so can't afford to mess with an unknown.  If this was 100 loss team they likely would have nothing to lose by signing him but they are not so they must have felt he was not worth the risk.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

 

Maybe they saw him as a reliever and lost interest when they resigned Romo. Although Yamaguchi is a righty, so who knows. There has to be some other reason besides the money that they felt he wasn't worth taking a flyer on.

Agreed, I don't think it was money that deterred the FO. It may be also that Doogie might have over reacted a bit to his source telling him they were in on Yamaguchi.

[Cody Pirkl]

Despite some people's negativity, I think the FO is still looking for impact pitching, and they're certainly looking for pitching to help this team. As you pointed out, they aren't as big on analytics in those leagues which is a big part of how our front office operates. If they looked at what numbers we had available and weren't positive he was even an upgrade over the Dobnak/Smeltzer/Thorpe group, it becomes about more than just the cheap price tag. I'd guess he wanted a guaranteed role if he came over. If we make a trade for a better starter and sign a Teheran type, it may push him out of the rotation. We just signed Romo and have some other experimental pieces in the bullpen like Wisler. I just don't think it was a good fit despite the price. A front office has to really like a guy from those leagues to bring them over given the lack of information available.

[rv78]

They are obviously out of available cash. Signing the big name top free agents will do that. 

[In My La Z boy]

I think/hope it is more about saving the 2 remaining spots on the 40 man for someone of greater impact. I agree we probably have several guys already on the roster who are as good or better, and at league minimum. 

[mikelink45]

We are waiting, waiting, waiting.  Obviously not as great as Wisler. 

 

At this point shouldn't we bring in all available arms and have some competition at least?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I agree they go after certain traits that they believe make a pitcher successful and I am guessing he didn't meet them.  Also they have a playoff caliber team now so can't afford to mess with an unknown.  If this was 100 loss team they likely would have nothing to lose by signing him but they are not so they must have felt he was not worth the risk.

Those would be valid reasons that the Twins wouldn't be interested in the guy -- but as noted in the first sentence of the article, the Twins were reported to have interest in him just a few days ago.

 

Once interest is established, and the guy signs a very modest contract, it's fair to wonder what happened in between. Although if there interest was in the range of this contract, it's also fair to question how strong the interest was to begin with!

[In My La Z boy]

 

Those would be valid reasons that the Twins wouldn't be interested in the guy -- but as noted in the first sentence of the article, the Twins were reported to have interest in him just a few days ago.

 

Once interest is established, and the guy signs a very modest contract, it's fair to wonder what happened in between. Although if there interest was in the range of this contract, it's also fair to question how strong the interest was to begin with!

At this point in the off season it is probably fair to dispute all of these "Twins Have interest" leaks. I'm not buying it. Someone in the media or in the front office, or both is playing games and it's making us look bad. How is it helpful to keep spreading rumors, when in hind site we obviously didn't have interest, or certainly not enough interest to actually sign anyone? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

for once, it seems as though location and climate wouldn’t have held a potential impact free agent from signing with the Twins. 

According to Wikipedia, Toronto's population of Japanese Canadians is perhaps closer to the Japanese American population of major California cities, than to that of Minneapolis.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Canadians_in_the_Greater_Toronto_Area

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._cities_with_large_Japanese-American_populations

 

Both cities have a non-stop flight to Tokyo.

 

The Toronto Blue Jays have previously employed 4 Japanese players, as compared to the Twins' 1 (and that player's Twins tenure was more infamous than famous). Munenori Kawasaki played in Toronto for 3 seasons; Tomo Ohka signed there as a free agent twice, albeit towards the end of his career. It's possible Toronto has a bit better inroads in Japanese baseball than the Twins at this point?

 

The Blue Jays right now also offer less pressure and a clearer path to playing time.

 

But like I said above, if the Twins interest was around a 2 year, $6 mil deal, that's not particularly strong interest either. It may not take much to dissuade them from going higher.

[bunsen82]

Unlike some I am not disappointed Yamaguchi didn't sign here.  He would likely be an individual that would do well in April and early innings, but once batters became familiar and analytics delved in could be very hittable just like Kikuchi last year.  He is very similar to Kikuchi but slightly different pitches, I believe Yamaguchi's best pitch is a splitter.  Look at it this way, the Twins felt he was worth 3 million but Yamaguchi's camp wanted 4 million.  The Twins were also interested in another pitcher who has similar stuff who the Twins had success with last year in Sergio Romo (both top out at 90 mph fastball), and they know his stuff works in MLB is Sergio Romo.  I believe the Twins then said, we would rather put a little extra to get Sergio Romo instead, who I might add the Twins were not linked to until recently.  I think this was an either/or situation,  not that we would sign both.  I think the Twins will pursue one more higher end RP dependent on if we sign a high end pitcher or Donaldson. 

[Cody Pirkl]

 

We are waiting, waiting, waiting.  Obviously not as great as Wisler. 

 

At this point shouldn't we bring in all available arms and have some competition at least?

They have a full profile on Wisler, something lacking in Yamaguchi coming from overseas. They clearly feel confident that Wisler can make some changes and have a positive impact on the team. Just because there isn't competition now doesn't mean there won't be. At the very least they'll see what's available in February on the market that can be had for cheap like they did with Marwin last year. It's still only December.

[old nurse]

Relievers still have a future at 32, fringe starters do not. As a starter it is easy to see why you would pass on him. As a reliever, he would be Rochester shuttle material.

[Sam Morley]

I don't understand why any team would be interested in this kind of acquisition. 

 

When you have a minor league system full of young players that you have scouted and developed, and know pretty intimately why would you sign someone who is older and about whom you have very little knowledge- and one of things you do know is that he has a fastball in the low 90s? 

 

These guys put up decent standard stats (with no analytical peripherals available) in leagues no one seems to have a bead on how to compare competitively to leagues in the States (is the Japanese league comparable to triple A or whatever the league is that the Saints play in?), and then they require a major league contract and roster spot. 

 

I don't care at all about the money. But the 20 lousy-mediocre starts it takes to find out he's at best not any better than Thorpe/Smeltzer/whoever is a huge loss for a competitive team. 

 

The Twins should be looking to sign starting pitchers/any player with the least amount of risk of not improving the team.

 

A list pitcher types ranked starting with the least amount of risk of not improving the team:

 

1. Proven veteran Ace under 30 years old with immediate recent success

2. Proven veteran Ace over 30 years old with immediate recent success

3. Proven veteran Ace with relative diminished recent success

4. Solid veteran 2-3 with relative recent success

5. Unproven promising high ceiling young guy with recent Minor league/early MLB success

6. Any of the above (formerly) returning from recent injury with promising recovery expectations

7. Guy from Japan/Korean/Taiwanese/Cuban pro leagues absolutely dominating their league (ie Ohtani) 

8. Solid veteran 4-5 with relative recent success and former 1-2-3 relative success

9. Minor league high ranked prospects in own system knocking on door

10. Minor league high ranked prospects in someone else's system knocking on door

11. Minor league low-non ranked prospects in own system knocking on door

12. Guy with former MLB success most recently pitching for an indy league team and dominating

13. Guy from Japan/Korean/Taiwanese/Cuban pro leagues with recent relative success

14. Guy from indy league with no MLB experience recently dominating

 

I'd say Yamaguchi fits squarely in to #13 and should be a hard pass for any team with serious playoff aspirations in 2020. 

 

If you could sign him and put him at AA or AAA and see what happens, that seems great.  

[drivlikejehu]

There are some people straining really hard to find things to complain about. Passing on a potential 5th starter, oh the horror . . .

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm generally in favor of adding talent, but my 2 cents here is that they need to aim higher. I'm glad they did their due dillengence, but losing out on this one doesn't bother me too much... 

 

of course that means he'll be the next coming of Pedro Martinez.... 

[h2oface]

 

I don't understand why any team would be interested in this kind of acquisition. 

 

When you have a minor league system full of young players that you have scouted and developed, and know pretty intimately why would you sign someone who is older and about whom you have very little knowledge- and one of things you do know is that he has a fastball in the low 90s? 

 

These guys put up decent standard stats (with no analytical peripherals available) in leagues no one seems to have a bead on how to compare competitively to leagues in the States (is the Japanese league comparable to triple A or whatever the league is that the Saints play in?), and then they require a major league contract and roster spot. 

 

I don't care at all about the money. But the 20 lousy-mediocre starts it takes to find out he's at best not any better than Thorpe/Smeltzer/whoever is a huge loss for a competitive team. 

 

The Twins should be looking to sign starting pitchers/any player with the least amount of risk of not improving the team.

 

A list pitcher types ranked starting with the least amount of risk of not improving the team:

 

1. Proven veteran Ace under 30 years old with immediate recent success

2. Proven veteran Ace over 30 years old with immediate recent success

3. Proven veteran Ace with relative diminished recent success

4. Solid veteran 2-3 with relative recent success

5. Unproven promising high ceiling young guy with recent Minor league/early MLB success

6. Any of the above (formerly) returning from recent injury with promising recovery expectations

7. Guy from Japan/Korean/Taiwanese/Cuban pro leagues absolutely dominating their league (ie Ohtani) 

8. Solid veteran 4-5 with relative recent success and former 1-2-3 relative success

9. Minor league high ranked prospects in own system knocking on door

10. Minor league high ranked prospects in someone else's system knocking on door

11. Minor league low-non ranked prospects in own system knocking on door

12. Guy with former MLB success most recently pitching for an indy league team and dominating

13. Guy from Japan/Korean/Taiwanese/Cuban pro leagues with recent relative success

14. Guy from indy league with no MLB experience recently dominating

 

I'd say Yamaguchi fits squarely in to #13 and should be a hard pass for any team with serious playoff aspirations in 2020. 

 

If you could sign him and put him at AA or AAA and see what happens, that seems great.  

 

Great list. 

I'm not interested in Yamaguchi at all. There are plenty of guys to take a chance on in the farm. Focus should be on at least two much finer starters right now, like #s 1-5. Laser focus even.

[ewen21]

I don’t even know who this player is and I’m sure most here haven’t the first idea other than he’s a a 32 year old lefty. Having never seen him pitch it really doesn’t give me the right to grouse about not going for him. I imagine there is a decent pool of players of this ability level. He is kind of FA pitcher we often sign with the only difference being he pitched in the Japanese league.

 

Long story short is I can’t complain about not going for a guy I never heard of, nor should anyone

[SwainZag]

Just because it comes out that the team has interest in a guy doesn't mean that interest is strong enough to do whatever it takes to sign them from someone else.

[terrydactyls]

For what it's worth, on MLB radio this afternoon, they were discussing Yamaguchi.  It was their opinion (and they know more about him than I do) that he projects as a back-end starter at best.  The Twins already have a bunch of those so I'm glad they passed.

[Thrylos]

Yamaguchi has 2 pitches.  He projects as a reliever in MLB.  I guess to answer that question is because they thought that Romo will help them more.