Front Page: Getting an “Ace” Easier Said Than Done

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I didn't say ACE I said top of the rotation which my understanding is 2/3 and I said ceiling, 4 of the 5 were in the top 100 prospects in all of baseball at one time and 3 of 5 in the top 50.

You said this: I am confused didn't the Twins have 5 "ace type" pitchers in the minor leagues just a few short years ago (2017 they were 5 of the Twins top 10 prospects). Romero, Gonzo, Jay, Stewart and Mejia.

 

You did say "sarcasm" in that post, but if the sarcasm meant they weren't "ace types" then I'm not sure what the point was.

 

Including projected 3's in "ace type" or "top of the rotation" definitions is watering down the term to near meaninglessness, in my opinion.

 

You're incorrect on rankings -- only Jay and Stewart ever cracked a top 50, among those 5, and both of those were immediately after their draft *and* included high-end reliever potential, arguably more than ace starter potential.

 

And a top 100 ranking is meaningless as far as evidence of ceiling -- guys can be ranked for floor as much as they can be ranked for ceiling. And as I mentioned above, spots 75-100 are more or less interchangeable with 101-125 or more -- sneaking into the back part of a top 100 list isn't much more than a coin flip from being left just outside.

[Tomj14]

The "sarcasm" was Why can't they be the solution to rotation in 2020 and beyond?

 

I used the word ace type in quotes to say that they were highly touted at one or some point in their minor league career, Mejia was a stretch to include but he did in my search of top Twins prospects make their top 10 one year. 

 

They all have failed, at least so far, and people are hoping this next group of Smeltzer, Thorpe and Dobnack are the solution to the 3 vacant starting positions (for 39 games at least) or at least hopeful of filling rosters starting roles in the future while never being touted as high as the other pitchers.

 

Hopefully that clears up my point

[Tomj14]

 

The "sarcasm" was Why can't they be the solution to rotation in 2020 and beyond?

 

I used the word ace type in quotes to say that they were highly touted at one or some point in their minor league career, Mejia was a stretch to include but he did in my search of top Twins prospects make their top 10 one year. 

 

They all have failed, at least so far, and people are hoping this next group of Smeltzer, Thorpe and Dobnack are the solution to the 3 vacant starting positions (for 39 games at least) or at least hopeful of filling rosters starting roles in the future while never being touted as high as the other pitchers.

 

I have left Garterol out of that mix because he has been as highly touted as them if not even more. More along the lines of Berrios.

Hopefully that clears up my point

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The "sarcasm" was Why can't they be the solution to rotation in 2020 and beyond?

 

I used the word ace type in quotes to say that they were highly touted at one or some point in their minor league career, Mejia was a stretch to include but he did in my search of top Twins prospects make their top 10 one year. 

 

They all have failed, at least so far, and people are hoping this next group of Smeltzer, Thorpe and Dobnack are the solution to the 3 vacant starting positions (for 39 games at least) or at least hopeful of filling rosters starting roles in the future while never being touted as high as the other pitchers.

 

Hopefully that clears up my point

That's fair, although the post to which you were responding referenced Berrios and Graterol as potential aces, as well as possibly Balazovic and Duran. It didn't really name or discuss Smeltzer, Thorpe, or Dobnak.

 

You have to admit, Berrios has better ace potential right now than any prospect name you mentioned ever had. Graterol possibly too (could maybe compare to Stewart on draft day?). Seemed odd to me to bring up guys like Mejia and Gonsalves in response to that.

 

Hopefully that clears up my response.

[prouster]

Actually, I think it's even worse than that -- I believe Mejia was 99th or something on BA's in-season top 100 update, which removed prospect graduates but didn't include that year's draftees or new international signings. Probably comparable to a 120-130 ranking on a normal list.

 

Mejia did apparently sneak up to 86 on BP's list, pre-2015. That was a year and a half before the Twinsa acquired him, though, and looks like a bit of an outlier.

 

Of course, being ranked 75-100 isn't appreciably different than being ranked 101-125 either.

 

Edit: found it! Mejia was BA's midseason #91 in 2016, without including new draftees or international signings:

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23377-article-nunez-traded-to-giants-for-lhp-prospect/?p=520558

Thank you. This is what I was thinking of.

[Linus]

I don’t think you “get” an ace other than the Yankees buying one. I think you have to add as much pitching talent as possible and hope an ace emerges

[bird]

 

I am confused didn't the Twins have 5 "ace type" pitchers in the minor leagues just a few short years ago (2017 they were 5 of the Twins top 10 prospects). Romero, Gonzo, Jay, Stewart and Mejia.

Why can't they be the solution to rotation in 2020 and beyond?

</sarcasm>

 

 

No, Tom, not a single one of those prospects was really regarded by anyone (other than local dreamerfans) was thought to have a #1 ceiling. Using just one expert, Keith Law,  and maybe imperfect recollection, Romero and Jay were though to be relievers or at best #3, Gonsalves, Stewart and Mejia mid rotation types.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don’t think you “get” an ace other than the Yankees buying one. I think you have to add as much pitching talent as possible and hope an ace emerges

Scherzer, Corbin, Greinke, Morton -- these guys were essentially acquired as aces by non-Yankee playoff teams this year. Verlander probably too -- he was having a 5 WAR season when acquired from Detroit, although he got even better in Houston. Cole was an ace in Pittsburgh at one time before he re-emerged, better, in Houston. Beyond 2019 playoff teams, a guy like Sonny Gray was similarly acquired as a past and future ace; a guy like Stroman might fit a definition of ace too. Bauer's a weaker candidate, although is 2018 season was definitely of ace quality.

 

And this doesn't ease much Twins fan anxiety because the Twins haven't yet "added" any MLB pitching this offseason. (Granted they did re-sign a couple guys, but re-signs feel almost less likely to emerge as aces since they're not changing coaches etc.?)

 

Jon Gray looks almost like a once-and-future ace too, although somewhat masked by pitching in Colorado. Would be mighty cool to get him in trade this winter...

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, Tom, not a single one of those prospects was really regarded by anyone (other than local dreamerfans) was thought to have a #1 ceiling. Using just one expert, Keith Law,  and maybe imperfect recollection, Romero and Jay were though to be relievers or at best #3, Gonsalves, Stewart and Mejia mid rotation types.

 

You might want to read his later response and note the sarcasm part.....

[bird]

 

Jay's ceiling was a top of the rotation guy and floor was a dominant reliever. Gonzo's ceiling was a #2 starter but more than likely 3/4, about the same for Meija.

About the same projections as this next group of saviors. (and actually besides Graterol, this next group doesn't have the Romero/Jay hype)

 

 

I'm not sure this is correct. Balazovic, Graterol and Duran all have 50FV values in FanGraphs this off-season, all now at AA or higher. I don't believe, after year one draft hype when EVERY pitcher has top of the rotation ceilings, that Gonsalves, Stewart, Mejia, Jay. or even Romero was registering at 40 or maybe 45FV, and in FG, that's a pretty big difference.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm not sure this is correct. Balazovic, Graterol and Duran all have 50FV values in FanGraphs this off-season, all now at AA or higher. I don't believe, after year one draft hype when EVERY pitcher has top of the rotation ceilings, that Gonsalves, Stewart, Mejia, Jay. or even Romero was registering at 40 or maybe 45FV, and in FG, that's a pretty big difference.

You really do need to read the whole thread before posting!

 

But Romero and Gonsalves did register at 50 FV Fangraphs prior to 2018, although I suspect that was more "high floor" for Gonsalves (and so much for the structural integrity of that "high floor"!).

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-30-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

About Romero, they said he "could turn into a power mid-rotation starter or settle near the back of a bullpen." That's not bad, but I think he had more helium hype locally.

[bird]

 

Putting aside if they were projected aces or not.... They were projected major league regulars.... Which is helping the Twins this year? To me, this is a cautionary tale for those that are confident that the Twins can stand still on pitching this year, or even next.

 

 

So yeah, it's great that those people aren't around here. Can you think of a single one of our pals here who has believed they should leave more than one rotation spot open to start the season? And most of us are even a bit queasy about that. So you're singing to the choir about 2020.

 

But probably not when it comes to 2021. Duran, Balazovic, and Graterol (50 FV) top FG's rankings, followed by Thorpe, Canterino (45FV), and then Sands, Colina, Enlow, and Rijo (40FV), with Dobnak graduated. So, all ten of these prospects are ranked ahead of players who have not been underwhelming in their debuts, namely Smeltzer, Stashak, and Alcala, who get 40FV as well. Moran, Winder, Valimont, and Ober also get 40FV values.

 

It's a numbers game. And yeah, we'd be fortunate if even a single one of these 17 pitchers became an Ace for even one season.

[bird]

 

Quite a few posters here. Saying that signing these free agents is a bad idea, and we should trust the FO to develop these guys.

 

 

I call strawman.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

So yeah, it's great that those people aren't around here. Can you think of a single one of our pals here who has believed they should leave more than one rotation spot open to start the season? And most of us are even a bit queasy about that. So you're singing to the choir about 2020.

 

But probably not when it comes to 2021. Duran, Balazovic, and Graterol (50 FV) top FG's rankings, followed by Thorpe, Canterino (45FV), and then Sands, Colina, Enlow, and Rijo (40FV), with Dobnak graduated. So, all ten of these prospects are ranked ahead of players who have not been underwhelming in their debuts, namely Smeltzer, Stashak, and Alcala, who get 40FV as well. Moran, Winder, Valimont, and Ober also get 40FV values.

 

It's a numbers game. And yeah, we'd be fortunate if even a single one of these 17 pitchers became an Ace foe even one season.

 

It is a numbers game, and I feel a lot better about this list than at any time in recent Twins' history. But I hope the rotation isn't Berrios, Pineda, and three of those guys in 2021.......

[Mike Sixel]

 

Hopefully our front office will not make decisions "without hesitation" not knowing if it will be a mistake. Obviously nobody is sure about these decisions but the willy nilly approach is not exactly the kind of critical thinking that should not be the practice used for anything with this type of impact. Fans are not responsible for mistakes so it's pretty easy to say just go do something even if it's wrong. That kind of desperation is not exact;y consistent with good leadership. Better to avoid a mistake and find a better alternative.

 

Are you saying you would not trade Lewis for the number 1 pitching prospect in the minors?

[Tomj14]

 

I'm not sure this is correct. Balazovic, Graterol and Duran all have 50FV values in FanGraphs this off-season, all now at AA or higher. I don't believe, after year one draft hype when EVERY pitcher has top of the rotation ceilings, that Gonsalves, Stewart, Mejia, Jay. or even Romero was registering at 40 or maybe 45FV, and in FG, that's a pretty big difference.

I love thier ages and potential and hope like heck their careers are awesome, but combined they have started 16 games in AA or higher, so hopefully they rip it up early in the year in the minors come up later to the bigs and blew up and maybe they are in the majors full time starting in 2021, that seems like best case to me. Now if they are on the Berrios path, it looks more like 2022 (which still is pretty darn good but doesn't really help in the near future when this window is wide open, and hopefully will still be in 2022)

[Mike Sixel]

I love thier ages and potential and hope like heck their careers are awesome, but combined they have started 16 games in AA or higher, so hopefully they rip it up early in the year in the minors come up later to the bigs and blew up and maybe they are in the majors full time starting in 2021, that seems like best case to me. Now if they are on the Berrios path, it looks more like 2022 (which still is pretty darn good but doesn't really help in the near future when this window is wide open, and hopefully will still be in 2022)

Right. On.

[bird]

 

You really do need to read the whole thread before posting!

 

But Romero and Gonsalves did register at 50 FV Fangraphs prior to 2018, although I suspect that was more "high floor" for Gonsalves (and so much for the structural integrity of that "high floor"!).

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-30-prospects-minnesota-twins/

 

About Romero, they said he "could turn into a power mid-rotation starter or settle near the back of a bullpen." That's not bad, but I think he had more helium hype locally.

No I don't. 

 

I did read and understand Tom's post. Sarcasm aside, I think Tom is wondering the same thing all of us are, which is whether we can count on the system to produce another Berrios or better anytime soon, given the the results we got from the five guys he mentioned. That's a legitimate question.

 

The theme of the thread relates to how teams find and Ace. Romero, despite the 50FV, was not a candidate for that label, and as you point out Gonsalves wasn't either, right? And as I pointed out, our three top pitching prospects are all thought to have better frontline starter potential than any of those five, and all three have better starter profiles than Jay or Romero.

 

We know it's a lot about having the skill to develop pitching talent, but it's also a numbers game. I think we're seeing a few small, early hints that this FO gets that and is making some progress. The Twins have 15 pitching prospects. plus Dobnak, who are 40FV guys or better. Boston has 7 of them. Other teams are stealing coaches from the Twins, not Boston. Only one of the prospects FG mentions came out of the 2019 draft, and they selected almost 20 college pitchers. That indicates to me a focus and a determination. And I'm not mentioning any of the young IFA arms, guys FG doesn't know about yet. 

 

I feel like the chances of us seeing another Berrios type or two out of this group of more than 40 arms is pretty good, but obviously not in time for the 2019 season.

 

 

[bird]

 

I love thier ages and potential and hope like heck their careers are awesome, but combined they have started 16 games in AA or higher, so hopefully they rip it up early in the year in the minors come up later to the bigs and blew up and maybe they are in the majors full time starting in 2021, that seems like best case to me. Now if they are on the Berrios path, it looks more like 2022 (which still is pretty darn good but doesn't really help in the near future when this window is wide open, and hopefully will still be in 2022)

 

 

Concur.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I thought and think now that Odorizzi is as likely a front line starter as Wheeler or Bumgarner. I argued that they were extremes in the number of pitchers faced with Odorizzi at 4 and Wheeler and Bumgarner over 50. Those plate appearance of complete dominance against opposing pitchers added innings to their total, lengthened starts and reduced the number of high stress innings.

I don’t know of any is a front line starter but I don’t think that it is universally accepted that a line can be drawn between them.

The Twins signed Odorizzi and need one more similar. I think that other is going to have to come in trade or the (unexpected on my part) development of someone in house.

 

If this is true, why aren't the Twins working their tails off to get him signed longer term? Why, after making him the QO, didn't they work on getting him locked in for 3-4 more years? If he is truly that kind of pitcher and they were willing to go 5/100 with one of them, then why aren't they looking long term with Jake?

[Channing1964]

I am not mad, I am over it. Every time I say anything bad about Falvey or Levine I get shot down in flames. When things suck and they trade our favorite players they convince us we had no chance to win anyway. Hence, the "Window of Opportunity" Then when things go great they say "The Window is Open". No Limits On Spending!!. what ever happened to having a plan for what you want to buy before you go shopping? If you planned to move Sano to 1b why not sign Donaldson on the day after the World Series? Now we had no chance on Wheeler from day one? If you knew that why aren't Keuchel And Ryu under Twins contracts? All I hear from Falvine for three years now is a bunch of Bull$*it. I've said it from day one of their regime and everything i know is absolutely true. Excuse after embarassing excuses for not improving this team is not gonna fly. All they wanna do is collect their huge ass salaries and keep us at bay with first round playoff exits. Why should they win? Their contracts pay them now (with the EXTENSIONS) way more than the World Series bonus ever would. They are never going to stick their necks out by taking a risk, being accountable to the fan base, and jeopardize their personal financial futures to bring us Minnesotans another World Championship. The whole thing stinks. Great Job guys. Every other contender had a game plan. We loved the San Diego vacation. The winter meetings was for work Derek.... not public relations.

[Channing1964]

and just for those that say stick to the thread.....Whoever said we needed an ace? Why did we even involve ourselves with Wheeler or Bumgarner anyway? Odorizzi, Berrios, and Pineda is a damn decent 3. What our Einsteins should have been focusing on from day one was guys like Keuchel, Hamels or even Porcello. Guys who have won and know how to hold down a 3-5 rotation spot. I love you Falvine!!! Thank you so much for Alex Avila!!

[Channing1964]

one more thing....Robbie Ray...hmmmm

[kdag23]

and just for those that say stick to the thread.....Whoever said we needed an ace? Why did we even involve ourselves with Wheeler or Bumgarner anyway? Odorizzi, Berrios, and Pineda is a damn decent 3. What our Einsteins should have been focusing on from day one was guys like Keuchel, Hamels or even Porcello. Guys who have won and know how to hold down a 3-5 rotation spot. I love you Falvine!!! Thank you so much for Alex Avila!!

[kdag23]

Good point and perhaps it's been mentioned, but what about trading for an impact bullpen arm or two? Especially since Roger's seems to have issues pitching back to back games. Turn it over to the pen and lock it down early or hold it to get some runs.

 

Someone like, I don't know...Hader?

 

I await the stones and arrows.

[Channing1964]

Hader would be great...i fear it would take a king's ransom with the way the Brew Crew's rotation is shaping up.

[Channing1964]

And here is another take....Why am i hearing repeatedly that "we had no chance at this or that guy because they had their mind set on Philadelphia, Arizona, New York, etc, Etc, ETC...fill in the blank. Im only 55 so i wouldnt know, but I am from Minnesota and I was raised there so...If you want something why wouldn't you try to sell your pitch to get it. Bring your guy in.... show em downtown, show em Target Field, talk about the U, take their family out to dinner with TonyO, TK, and Odorizzi. This whole free agent process this year is a demonstration of this FO ineptness and inexperience. SELL YOUR CITY!!..To say nobody wants to come here is a cop out. Its a crappy excuse from a Front Office that is not willing nor motivated enough to promote the things about our city and team that makes players that love it want to stay. Dont use Geography as an excuse for failing at your very important job. This sucks. oh....but other than that i love your vision for the future and especially your budget consciousness. We are blessed to have you two clowns. Phhhhhhhhhhht! hurry before Sergio Romo gets away!!!!

[Channing1964]

what a load of crap. Im glad i never complained about Terry Ryan. At least we used to win most of the time and he never said a bunch of bull that made me feel like an idiot for believing him.

[Michigan Twins Fan]

How long did it take Twins' fans to start blaming Mauer and the FO for Mauer's contract? Can't spend enough, and then they spend too much. 

 

The FO works in a milieu with 29 other organizations and FAs who have their own desires. This isn't as simple as "offer more money!" I'm a teacher in Michigan. You couldn't pay me enough to move my family to Louisiana to teach. Or California. Or a lot of places. Geography, culture, perception, etc. These things matter to ball players as much as they do to us. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How long did it take Twins' fans to start blaming Mauer and the FO for Mauer's contract? Can't spend enough, and then they spend too much. 

It's a little more complex with Mauer. I think most fanbases will be critical of a player who isn't viewed as earning his salary, even if they endorsed the signing originally. That's mostly a separate issue from whether the team is spending enough in general, which started cropping up in the Twins Target Field era in 2012 and especially 2013 when Mauer was still good.