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Front Page: Getting an “Ace” Easier Said Than Done


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Still, the Twins should have “bothered” to make an offer anyway.

If the Twins had offered Wheeler 5/125 and Wheeler still turned it down, this whole media market would be awash in praise for Pohlad and the front office. The Falvey fans on this site would be in a frenzy. It’s all we would hear about until training camp—and probably long after that!

 

 

But aren't you presuming things here? What is a "Falvey fan" BTW? 

 

At the time you would have put that unwanted 5/125 out there, Wheeler and family had a 5/118 in the bag from a team 25 minutes from family, on their preferred coast, and had, according to non-Doogie sources, told Falvey that as much as they appreciated his willingness to offer more than the 5/100 that reportedly was on the table, he shouldn't bother. I suppose one could (and many will, often) argue that he could have and should have thrown an offer out there anyway, one so stupid that it "couldn't be turned down" according to the arguer's own theory of that unknown.

 

If that's the argument, great. People are entitled to that opinion. However, they are not entitled to having Falvey make such an offer. I happen to respect and appreciate the club's right to exercise what it considers good business judgment, hard as it is to deal with yet another disappointment with more to come most likely.

 

We're seeing a ton of angst about players who were #2 starters and are just as likely to be worse than that in 2020 rather than better. I have a hunch that there's a Plan B to Wheeler, MadBum, Ryu, and Keuchel, and the reason we're hearing the Twins listed as one of the half dozen teams in the hunt is because they actually ARE. They're not going to take a shot if the prey is out of their range however. Plan B here we come. It'll be interesting.

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But aren't you presuming things here? What is a "Falvey fan" BTW? 

 

At the time you would have put that unwanted 5/125 out there, Wheeler and family had a 5/118 in the bag from a team 25 minutes from family, on their preferred coast, and had, according to non-Doogie sources, told Falvey that as much as they appreciated his willingness to offer more than the 5/100 that reportedly was on the table, he shouldn't bother. I suppose one could (and many will, often) argue that he could have and should have thrown an offer out there anyway, one so stupid that it "couldn't be turned down" according to the arguer's own theory of that unknown.

 

If that's the argument, great. People are entitled to that opinion. However, they are not entitled to having Falvey make such an offer. I happen to respect and appreciate the club's right to exercise what it considers good business judgment, hard as it is to deal with yet another disappointment with more to come most likely.

 

We're seeing a ton of angst about players who were #2 starters and are just as likely to be worse than that in 2020 rather than better. I have a hunch that there's a Plan B to Wheeler, MadBum, Ryu, and Keuchel, and the reason we're hearing the Twins listed as one of the half dozen teams in the hunt is because they actually ARE. They're not going to take a shot if the prey is out of their range however. Plan B here we come. It'll be interesting.

For me, a Bumgarner signing would still be welcome, but at this stage I’m just looking for some consistency from people. I’m not singling you out. But if someone in October publicly says something like “the time is right to acquire a front line starter” (meaning Wheeler or Bumgarner, not Odorizzi), then I would expect that person to conduct some sort of public self-reflection in February 2020 when that doesn’t come to pass.

 

But like you, regardless of what ownership or the front office does or does not do, I will be rooting for this team to the very end.

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For me, a Bumgarner signing would still be welcome, but at this stage I’m just looking for some consistency from people. I’m not singling you out. But if someone in October publicly says something like “the time is right to acquire a front line starter” (meaning Wheeler or Bumgarner, not Odorizzi), then I would expect that person to conduct some sort of public self-reflection in February 2020 when that doesn’t come to pass.

But like you, regardless of what ownership or the front office does or does not do, I will be rooting for this team to the very end.

 

 

If they don't acquire one more "impact pitcher" (using THEIR explanation and definition, not any of OURS), then like you, I'd appreciate it if, God forbid, the beat writers asked the tough questions. 

 

I think we forget that, coming off a 78 win season, we heard a lot of complaints, all the way up and through spring training, that they hadn't done enough, hadn't done the right things. Frankly, I was hoping for one more good reliever and was concerned that they were one starter short, but then the team wins 101. They went from hardly a player above replacement to a  lineup of no one below replacement. And yet I recall complaints about Schoop and Cron. Cheap owner stuff. I mean, we were right that they were short a couple of pitchers there at the end (Dyson and Pineda would have been nice), but man alive, some people are whining that they should have foreseen that the window was more open. 

 

I cut them a bit more slack, in large part because while they weren't perfect by any means, the progress was phenomenal and the momentum is in place. I don't know how they're going to fill the few remaining holes. But I'm optimistic they will, with the exception perhaps of going light on relievers once again to start the season.

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For me, a Bumgarner signing would still be welcome, but at this stage I’m just looking for some consistency from people. I’m not singling you out. But if someone in October publicly says something like “the time is right to acquire a front line starter” (meaning Wheeler or Bumgarner, not Odorizzi), then I would expect that person to conduct some sort of public self-reflection in February 2020 when that doesn’t come to pass.

But like you, regardless of what ownership or the front office does or does not do, I will be rooting for this team to the very end.

 

Would you complain if he just shout his mouth and gave it his best shot? MANY times reps who worked for me told me he or she thought they were going to land a huge deal. Guess what some of those did not come to fruition through no fault of said representative.  I did not belittle them for telling me they were focused on or all-in on a deal.

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Well, there are in-house options, but still years away. The point is, the window is here right now, and no guarantee that it will be open at any point in the future- WSox, Cleve, all getting set and reloading, too.

 

You gotta throw those dice now. Get the 'aciest' guy you can, bite the bullet, and get rolling.

 

Cleveland still has a lot of talent but they don't have the payroll room to keep them. They will likely fade over the next couple years and it will be a while before their farm system can supply replacements.

 

There is an interesting contradiction here where our team is concerned and the CWS. When our guys were unproven we should have traded them for proven players because prospects are just prospects until they prove something. Yet, Chicago is presumed to be a surefire contender.

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But if someone in October publicly says something like “the time is right to acquire a front line starter” (meaning Wheeler or Bumgarner, not Odorizzi), then I would expect that person to conduct some sort of public self-reflection in February 2020 when that doesn’t come to pass.

If I still wanted to submit to annual performance reviews, I probably wouldn't have retired. :)

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Bumgarner and Keuchel were once both considered “aces” but are probably more mid-rotation starters at this point. Ryu was great in 2019 but has significant injury concerns and is already 32-years-old.

 

This is what's frustrating to me. I both am upset that the Pohlad's aren't opening up their pocket book, but on the off chance they actually sign one of these guys, none of them really move the needle that much IMO. The real choices to change this team's ability to compete in the playoffs are gone. And there's always an excuse, and there's always 'maybe we'll do something we've never done and trade a major prospect for a major pitcher'. And when that doesn't happen, the local media will always insist on creating the strawman that anyone unhappy with the situations is demanding the Twins outspend the Yankees every year. (Seriously, I know there was already a question about what happens in other markets on this thread but I've got my own - is there any media in any other market that hates the fans of the team they cover like the media in the Twin Cities hates Twins fans?) Whatever. Wake me when the Pohlad's sell.

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I thought and think now that Odorizzi is as likely a front line starter as Wheeler or Bumgarner. I argued that they were extremes in the number of pitchers faced with Odorizzi at 4 and Wheeler and Bumgarner over 50. Those plate appearance of complete dominance against opposing pitchers added innings to their total, lengthened starts and reduced the number of high stress innings.

 

I don’t know of any is a front line starter but I don’t think that it is universally accepted that a line can be drawn between them.

 

The Twins signed Odorizzi and need one more similar. I think that other is going to have to come in trade or the (unexpected on my part) development of someone in house.

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This is what's frustrating to me. I both am upset that the Pohlad's aren't opening up their pocket book, but on the off chance they actually sign one of these guys, none of them really move the needle that much IMO. The real choices to change this team's ability to compete in the playoffs are gone. And there's always an excuse, and there's always 'maybe we'll do something we've never done and trade a major prospect for a major pitcher'. And when that doesn't happen, the local media will always insist on creating the strawman that anyone unhappy with the situations is demanding the Twins outspend the Yankees every year. (Seriously, I know there was already a question about what happens in other markets on this thread but I've got my own - is there any media in any other market that hates the fans of the team they cover like the media in the Twin Cities hates Twins fans?) Whatever. Wake me when the Pohlad's sell.

I doubt any media members are emotionally invested enough in any Twins fan to hate them. I would bet the house they get annoyed sometimes. It's simple. Dogs are relentlessly positive. Everybody loves dogs. If fans are overly optimistic and simplistic they may cause some incredulous head shaking but not much irritation. Now if someone is always complaining and negative about a situation it gets old. Nobody likes a whiner. The Pohlads are going to spend between approximately $125 & $150 million on payroll this year. That could easily have been surmised at the beginning of the off season. From what we know if they don't get their man they will be closer to the lower number. They will also leave a little wiggle room for in season moves. We can wish all we want that their revenue was $500m instead of $250m but don't think it's going to work. Remember wish in one hand and crap in the other and see which one fills up first. If it's not the one you want you can always stomp out of the room.

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The Twins signed Odorizzi and need one more similar. I think that other is going to have to come in trade or the (unexpected on my part) development of someone in house.

Why is it that we can't trade for a young guy on the rise to get this pitcher?  This is what Houston did to get Cole.  I think they played Cole perfectly.  They got him at the exact right time and now the Yankees owe him a third of a billion dollars.

 

We need to do what Houston did and NOT what the Yankees do.  If we trade a Buxton or Rosario then get a FA outfielder to replace them.  They are not as costly as pitching and far more common and therefore easier to replace.

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You didn't watch last year, did you. Nothing says they can't, other than they didn't last year. They both had their chances and the Yankees toyed with them until they had to give in. Once they did and started grooving pitches, they were in trouble. 

 

Hope and prayer gets old. 

You are right, I didn't watch most of game 1 because it wasn't on tv...at least any station I could get.  Did watch the next two games.  Failure in 2019 does not mean that pitchers like Berrios, Pineda and Odorizzi can't succeed in 2020.  Whether or not they will remains to be seen.

 

And I don't see it as a hope and prayer that any of the three can pitch winning games in the 2020 playoffs...assuming we get there. 

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Why is it that we can't trade for a young guy on the rise to get this pitcher?  This is what Houston did to get Cole.  I think they played Cole perfectly.  They got him at the exact right time and now the Yankees owe him a third of a billion dollars.

 

We need to do what Houston did and NOT what the Yankees do.  If we trade a Buxton or Rosario then get a FA outfielder to replace them.  They are not as costly as pitching and far more common and therefore easier to replace.

A little puzzled that the post was quoted and questioned here. I suggested “going to have to make a trade” yet it was asked why is it we can’t trade for a young guy...

 

I think my missing key word is young and if that is the case I agree I should have added trade for a young guy and have them take the next step towards front line starter. I agree that we do not need to trade for an established ace and particularly one in their 30s with decline ahead.

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A little puzzled that the post was quoted and questioned here. I suggested “going to have to make a trade” yet it was asked why is it we can’t trade for a young guy...

I think my missing key word is young and if that is the case I agree I should have added trade for a young guy and have them take the next step towards front line starter. I agree that we do not need to trade for an established ace and particularly one in their 30s with decline ahead.

I agree with you and added to what you said.  By quoting you I was not challenging you in any way, but rather reinforcing by adding to your point

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On the subject of where do Aces come from, let's first think about how many active pitchers you can name who:

 

1) used to be Aces or near-Aces but ain't anymore: Hamels, Wainwright, Price, MadBum, Cueto, Gio Gonzalez, Jose Fernandez?... point being to acknowledge performance volatility and shelf life;

 

2) might become Aces: Giolito, Kopech, Buehler, Nola, Soroka, Whitley, Puk, Bieber, Clevinger? ... point being it's not a long list;

 

3) are Aces now or have been for a season at least, and might be again: Greinke, Verlander, Cole, Kershaw, Scherzer, Sonny Gray, deGrom, Kluber, Strasburg?...point being again, it's not a long list

 

 One of the more insightful posts I have ever seen here!

 

Betting on any of the SPs in Group 1 has a very low probability of success. Just about any plan would be better this route.

 

Group two has real potential but every one of those teams is looking to add not subtract with perhaps the exception of Cleveland and they are not trading a SP to us.

 

Anyone in group 3 is a good solution. Which team is going to trade one of them? Houston / NY / LA – Absolutely no way. Nationals after just going all-in to sign Strasburg? The Mets after extending DeGrom and making several moves to compete now. No way. That leaves us with the Reds after trading for Bauer and extending Gray on what is now a team friendly deal. I seriously doubt it.

 

Aces are like quarterbacks in terms of their impact in the post season. It makes perfect sense for us all to want one badly. However, before we criticize their failure to execute such a trade we should inventory the options just as we should do realistically with FA. I would sure like to see some specific examples of solutions instead of complaining as if there are lots of options.

 

Who specifically should we target and why would their team be willing to give them up?

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I'll ask again, what should they do this off season?

I'll take a swing at that, Mike. 

 

Although I question whether it makes sense, expect they will play out trying to sign one of Bumgarner, Ryu or Koechel.  If they are successful, next work at getting a AAAA or reclamation starter.  Then move on to a lefty for the bullpen and someone to fill the void from when Cron left.  And I would promote the idea as the way to do that is to sign the best defensive experienced shortstop on the market.  Then move Polanco to second, Arraez to third and Sano to first.  

 

Should they not get one of the three, they should then move on to fill the #4 slot via trade.  Don't have a clue what that could look like, although I think they should try to do something similar to the Odorizzi trade.  I don't think they should give up a package including a couple of their top three to five prospects for a potential #1 starter who will be here for a year or two.    

 

The four young guns from last year and the reclamation project battle it out for the #5 spot in the rotation.  The second best gets Pineda's five or six starts in April and early May.

 

I look at the young gun as the replacement for Perez.  Expect the results at year end will be better than what we got from Perez last year.  Although the pitcher they trade for may not be perceived to be as good as Gibby, it is likely his performance would be better than what we got from Gibby last summer.  Although not splashy moves, they would strengthen the team's chances to repeat.

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Well, there MIGHT BE in-house options, but still years away. The point is, the window is here right now, and no guarantee that it will be open at any point in the future- WSox, Cleve, all getting set and reloading, too.

 

You gotta throw those dice now. Get the 'aciest' guy you can, bite the bullet, and get rolling.

FIFY

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But aren't you presuming things here? What is a "Falvey fan" BTW? 

 

That was actually a very revealing comment by the OP. There is a consistent subset of posters, including moderators, that have had it out for Falvey from the moment he was hired. There's nothing the front office can do to please that subset. There aren't really "Falvey fans," so much as there are folks that look at the situation objectively, and then other folks that will just reflexively take the anti-front office position. The really interesting thing is how at least some of those anti- folks were TR defenders despite all the losing.

 

The discussions, including this thread, are conspicuously lacking an objective basis. There is no discussion about how other mid-market clubs have acquired "aces." There is no cost-benefit analysis, no consideration of the actual impact one starter has on the odds of winning a World Series, nothing. Just unsupported claims that the Twins are incompetent if they don't acquire an "ace" (or actually a #3 starter so long as he's really expensive). It's a discussion lacking in almost everything except for being a vehicle to attack the front office.

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I would sure like to see some specific examples of solutions instead of complaining as if there are lots of options.

 

Who specifically should we target and why would their team be willing to give them up?

This whole website is full of specific, actionable trade and free agent ideas that the front office should consider, from writers and posters alike.

 

Frankly, in my opinion, I personally think it’s dishonest for certain posters or media members to keep asking questions like this. Not singling anyone out here. “Go out and sign Wheeler at whatever price” is a valid suggestion for improving the team, like it or not. It implies not that the Twins should have offered him Gerrit Cole money, but only that they outbid other teams by enough to persuade him to keep the negotiation open until he signs. And to bring you back into this, MLR.. by your own payroll estimate in another thread, the Twins could have won Wheeler with such an offer and still be comfortably under the payroll ceiling you predicted. So there’s a specific free agency idea.

 

As for trade ideas, I see them on this site every day. You don’t have to like them, but they are there.

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 “Go out and sign Wheeler at whatever price” is a valid suggestion for improving the team, like it or not. It implies not that the Twins should have offered him Gerrit Cole money, but only that they outbid other teams by enough to persuade him to keep the negotiation open until he signs. And to bring you back into this, MLR.. by your own payroll estimate in another thread, the Twins could have won Wheeler with such an offer and still be comfortably under the payroll ceiling you predicted. So there’s a specific free agency idea.

 

What you won't find anywhere on the site is any discussion of the actual impact Wheeler would have on the team's odds of winning the World Series, using actual numbers related to his run prevention abilities compared to the alternatives.

 

Without analysis, demanding to sign Wheeler "at whatever price" is meaningless whining, not a serious suggestion. 

 

If you can point out even one fact-based analysis of giving Wheeler a big contract, I'll donate $100 to the charity of your choice, and share the receipt.

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That was actually a very revealing comment by the OP. There is a consistent subset of posters, including moderators, that have had it out for Falvey from the moment he was hired. There's nothing the front office can do to please that subset. There aren't really "Falvey fans," so much as there are folks that look at the situation objectively, and then other folks that will just reflexively take the anti-front office position. The really interesting thing is how at least some of those anti- folks were TR defenders despite all the losing.

 

The discussions, including this thread, are conspicuously lacking an objective basis. There is no discussion about how other mid-market clubs have acquired "aces." There is no cost-benefit analysis, no consideration of the actual impact one starter has on the odds of winning a World Series, nothing. Just unsupported claims that the Twins are incompetent if they don't acquire an "ace" (or actually a #3 starter so long as he's really expensive). It's a discussion lacking in almost everything except for being a vehicle to attack the front office.

I am the poster you are referring to, and you are wrong.

 

I am skeptical of the front office, yes, very much so. I don’t have it out for them personally. That is quite different.

 

I didn’t have it out for them from “the moment they were hired”. No one did. Literally, no one. I liked their early moves. I was disappointed they did not show interest in trading for Gerrit Cole. And they can win me over—easily—by signing Bumgarner. :)

 

As for cost-benefit, quantitative impact of a top starter, and that other stuff you threw in there... no one really has any data about that that they can be confident in.

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Hopefully our front office will not make decisions "without hesitation" not knowing if it will be a mistake. Obviously nobody is sure about these decisions but the willy nilly approach is not exactly the kind of critical thinking that should not be the practice used for anything with this type of impact. Fans are not responsible for mistakes so it's pretty easy to say just go do something even if it's wrong. That kind of desperation is not exact;y consistent with good leadership. Better to avoid a mistake and find a better alternative.

 

There's nothing "willy nilly", and insulting me isn't helpful. I've been reading about Gore since before he was drafted, and since.

 

Nothing desperate about trading for the number 1 pitching prospect in the game....nothing at all. How do we know that keeping Lewis isn't the mistake?

 

Again, what is your alternative? You say no to pretty much every idea, what is your idea.

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I am the poster you are referring to, and you are wrong.

I am skeptical of the front office, yes, very much so. I don’t have it out for them personally. That is quite different.

I didn’t have it out for them from “the moment they were hired”. No one did. Literally, no one. I liked their early moves. I was disappointed they did not show interest in trading for Gerrit Cole. And they can win me over—easily—by signing Bumgarner. :)

As for cost-benefit, quantitative impact of a top starter, and that other stuff you threw in there... no one really has any data about that that they can be confident in.

 

It is 100% false that no one had it out for them from the moment they were hired. There was a subset of posters that disagreed with firing TR, and/or disagreed with hiring Falvey, and have been critical of most every move and non-move since. I read the posts and was shocked at how quickly and vehemently that unfolded.

 

Likewise it is completely false that it is impossible to analyze the impact of transactions. Actually it's fairly straightforward. If you swap a 4.50 ERA pitcher for a 4.00 ERA pitcher, that equates to an increased win probability per start. 

 

If the goal is to win, shouldn't discussions consider whether a move, you know, actually helps to win? That seems obvious to me. What am I missing? Is the correct method to actually just make things up out of thin air with zero support? Is that how you have a more productive discussion?

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I have, over and over, and you've said no to each. Hence, what would you do?

 

OK - remind me. Which elite SPs are realistically available? Birdwatch took the time to actually list the potential candidates which I appreciated because I was trying to come up with targets who played for teams willing to part with an elite SP. Throwing out names of players on teams that hope to contend is not much different than just saying go get an ace. 

 

BTW ... I don't have a good solution but I also don't insist they trade for a player like Cole when it's incredibly naive to think this team has the financial resource to put $324M in one player. I also don't insist they trade for players which make no sense for their current team to trade. What would you say if another team wanted Berrios or Rodgers for prospects? 

 

Give me two names of elite SPs that play for a team willing to trade them away?

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Why is it that we can't trade for a young guy on the rise to get this pitcher?  This is what Houston did to get Cole.  I think they played Cole perfectly.  They got him at the exact right time and now the Yankees owe him a third of a billion dollars.

 

We need to do what Houston did and NOT what the Yankees do.  If we trade a Buxton or Rosario then get a FA outfielder to replace them.  They are not as costly as pitching and far more common and therefore easier to replace.

 

I think this is a continuous aspiration. Unfortunately, clubs don't wake up and take a stupid pill all that often. The Rays did, and we took Odorizzi from them. The Pirates did, and Houston stepped in and stole Cole, not giving up any top 5 prospects. I think these trades have been in short supply.

 

That said, my theory is we're embarking on a prolonged cycle where financial inflexibility will reign as the new market inefficiency. Examples perhaps: Greinke, David Price, Cole and Rendon being allowed to hit FA.

 

Even though savvy deals are hard to find, you don't need a slew of them when you've already made a couple (Odorizzi and Pineda). 

 

As a Twins lifer (1961), I guess I've learned to be patient (not accepting), so when the team drafted and signed 20 college pitchers in last year's draft, that signaled to me that the long range strategy is to achieve a superior capacity for developing pitchers.

 

I'm afraid we'll just have to wait for an Ace to emerge. We'll see.

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It is 100% false that no one had it out for them from the moment they were hired. There was a subset of posters that disagreed with firing TR, and/or disagreed with hiring Falvey, and have been critical of most every move and non-move since. I read the posts and was shocked at how quickly and vehemently that unfolded.

 

Okay, well that wasn’t me in the subset of posters you are thinking of. What I remember when he was hired was some pretty good feeling about the future. There was even an account opened with the user name Fire Falvey that we had some fun with. I think in general there is still optimism, but for some, the shine has worn off.

 

As for my “Falvey fans” comment, I am not going to define or defend that, as it was a poor choice of words.

 

Your offer of a donation to charity is appreciated. I would recommend a dog rescue organization.

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OK - remind me. Which elite SPs are realistically available? Birdwatch took the time to actually list the potential candidates which I appreciated because I was trying to come up with targets who played for teams willing to part with an elite SP. Throwing out names of players on teams that hope to contend is not much different than just saying go get an ace. 

 

BTW ... I don't have a good solution but I also don't insist they trade for a player like Cole when it's incredibly naive to think this team has the financial resource to put $324M in one player. I also don't insist they trade for players which make no sense for their current team to trade. What would you say if another team wanted Berrios or Rodgers for prospects? 

 

Give me two names of elite SPs that play for a team willing to trade them away?

well Klueber just got traded, so there's one...

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OK - remind me. Which elite SPs are realistically available? Birdwatch took the time to actually list the potential candidates which I appreciated because I was trying to come up with targets who played for teams willing to part with an elite SP. Throwing out names of players on teams that hope to contend is not much different than just saying go get an ace. 

 

BTW ... I don't have a good solution but I also don't insist they trade for a player like Cole when it's incredibly naive to think this team has the financial resource to put $324M in one player. I also don't insist they trade for players which make no sense for their current team to trade. What would you say if another team wanted Berrios or Rodgers for prospects? 

 

Give me two names of elite SPs that play for a team willing to trade them away?

I’m not going to argue that the team should have signed Cole, but the team has the resources to spend $324M over 9 years, they can and they will spend 4x that amount. The debate would only be about whether it’s wise to commit 25% of their payroll (by the end of the deal should be 20%ish due to inflation).

 

It’s probably not a great idea, but I think it’s fair for some posters to ask for a different strategy than the quantity over quality free agent approach we’ve always seen.

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