Front Page: Getting an “Ace” Easier Said Than Done

[Brandon]

D C. Twins,. Last year we had three teams tanking. Next year we may have two depending on what Chicago does. With 19 games against each means we should win 70% against a tanking team. That's 13.3 wins against each tanking team. Against a team competing we should fall in the 60-40 or 55-45 depending on how competitive they are so against the Sox I would go so far as to say we should win around 55% of the time with more moves by both teams. That comes out to 10.45 wins. Close to a 3 win difference. Allow for variance and now we are a 96-98 win team without regression. With regression. I would say we are a 90-95 win team. And the 87-92 is if we are in a division where there are no tanking teams.

[SarasotaBill]

 

Sounds like a deal could be in the works for Elieser Hernandez.

 

The Twins hot stove season is saved!!

 

Hernandez pitched well in AAA. He would be a good candidate for a surplus OF.

[DocBauer]

Unless you have the top pick in the draft...on rare occasions maybe the 2nd or 3rd...and there is a Clemons or Strasburg there, you don't draft an ACE. You find arms you like and project and develop them. We are starting to see real changes in the development structure of the Twins system that could pay off over the next couple of years.

 

Debate all you will, but Berrios has that kind of potential still at 26yo. Gtaterol, with any kind of decent 3rd pitch and a little time and nurturing could be that type. Balazovic has a lot of steam. Duran maybe?

 

But the Twins are in a unique and somewhat awkward position right now. They have the $ to make a move that helps this team for at least a couple of years. But the market has shifted again and the terms have escalated beyond what I think anyone anywhere expected.

 

Do they take a shot here and overpay and figure out payroll 3 and 4 years from now when they get there? Do they try to front load a deal for greater flexibility down the road? That's what I'd be trying to do.

 

Or are they better off deepening the pen, add at least a decent if not good bat to replace Cron and deepen the lineup as well as add at least one decent solid rotation piece and in lue of some expensive rotation piece?

 

I don't know which way is smarter. You can enhance the club and it's chances either way.

 

But just saying "go get an ACE no matter what" isn't an accurate wish.

[bird]

 

Hernandez pitched well in AAA. He would be a good candidate for a surplus OF.

 

Exactly the kind of trade I want this FO to make when it develops a surplus on the major league roster. And Cave is redundant.

[rdehring]

 

Unless you have the top pick in the draft...on rare occasions maybe the 2nd or 3rd...and there is a Clemons or Strasburg there, you don't draft an ACE. You find arms you like and project and develop them. We are starting to see real changes in the development structure of the Twins system that could pay off over the next couple of years.

Debate all you will, but Berrios has that kind of potential still at 26yo. Gtaterol, with any kind of decent 3rd pitch and a little time and nurturing could be that type. Balazovic has a lot of steam. Duran maybe?

But the Twins are in a unique and somewhat awkward position right now. They have the $ to make a move that helps this team for at least a couple of years. But the market has shifted again and the terms have escalated beyond what I think anyone anywhere expected.

Do they take a shot here and overpay and figure out payroll 3 and 4 years from now when they get there? Do they try to front load a deal for greater flexibility down the road? That's what I'd be trying to do.

Or are they better off deepening the pen, add at least a decent if not good bat to replace Cron and deepen the lineup as well as add at least one decent solid rotation piece and in lue of some expensive rotation piece?

I don't know which way is smarter. You can enhance the club and it's chances either way.

But just saying "go get an ACE no matter what" isn't an accurate wish.

What's the saying, Doc?  I couldn't have said it better myself.  Well, truth is I couldn't have said it anywhere near as well as you have.  As I have said previously, I hope the Twins don't sign any of the current big 3 for whatever it takes as I am fearful that contract will come back to bite'em.  Would much prefer your recommendations above.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Serious question for any fans not originally from Minnesota. Does any other fanbase or local media care as much as we do about their team spending money responsibly? Twins fans and writers are so conditioned to protect the Pohlads' pocketbook. I guess I wonder if other markets go through the same "don't spend money just to spend money" spiel every offseason. If the Pohlads waste a bunch of money on a pitcher, they'll still have another zillion dollars in the bank to get more pitchers.

Fans and writers aren't "conditioned to protect the Pohalds' pocketbook." They are accustomed to the realities of this team and its constraints, and don't find it productive or interesting to reduce everything to "ownership should spend more." Instead, they try to operate within reality, analyze, and offer creative solutions under this framework, as Patrick did in this great piece. 

 

To answer your question, the opposite is pretty much true. Fans in almost every market feel their ownership underspends, hoards money, doesn't fulfill promises, etc. Some Mets fans refer to their owners as the "Wilponzies."

 

The fan base has to be concerned about blowing cash on a pitcher who will be a drag on the payroll in future years We know the Twins have a budget. It’s more than twice the payroll of the Rays. However, if they commit to spending too much on an aging pitcher, that blocks money to be used to make future acquisitions and to retain our own stars. Then the same fans who incorrectly complain about the “Cheap Pohlads”, in future years will complain about the stupid deal that brought the now “former star” pitcher who stinks up Target Field every five days. They’ll also complain about them being cheap for letting our own stars go in future years, because they agreed to a longterm expensive contract in 2019.

Great comment. It's just amazing to me how we go from "Joe Mauer's contract is an inexcusable albatross" to "Sign Ryu or Bumgarner for whatever it takes." 

 

The disconnect here is that 2020 payroll isn't the concern. There is no reason to think the Twins have any major limitations in terms of spending next year. It's a matter of strategic team-building, and piling up payroll commitments around the time your core starts hitting free agency. Fans can afford to be short-sighted in this regard; the front office can't. 

[bird]

On the subject of where do Aces come from, let's first think about how many active pitchers you can name who:

 

1) used to be Aces or near-Aces but ain't anymore: Hamels, Wainwright, Price, MadBum, Cueto, Gio Gonzalez, Jose Fernandez?... point being to acknowledge performance volatility and shelf life;

 

2) might become Aces: Giolito, Kopech, Buehler, Nola, Soroka, Whitley, Puk, Bieber, Clevinger? ... point being it's not a long list;

 

3) are Aces now or have been for a season at least, and might be again: Greinke, Verlander, Cole, Kershaw, Scherzer, Sonny Gray, deGrom, Kluber, Strasburg?...point being again, it's not a long list

 

So, if you combine the current Aces and aspiring ones,  you basically have one for every other team.

 

Now, if you peek back at the last decade of 1st round draft picks, you'll count about 14 guys who all the pundits described as having that elusive Ace ceiling. Thats 1.5 guys per draft. Let's see how that group is faring: yes, a decade ago, Gerrit Cole came along. Sweet. Wanna count Bauer in there as an Ace? Cool. Wanna count Mize, Hunter Greene, Gore, Kopech, and Ian Anderson as sure bets? Well, okay, but...now you need to sort through all the OTHER guys who were gonna be Aces: Bundy, Kyle Zimmer, Gausman, Jon Gray, Appel, Rodon, Kolek, Aiken.

 

I know I'm missing names of a few current Aces. But not many! And the thing is, almost EVERY ONE of the names above was a first round selection in the draft. Repeat: almost every one of them.

 

People say, well, other teams are so much better at developing Aces from later round selections. My question is, exactly who are these teams, and exactly who are these developed Aces from deep in the bowels of the draft? 

 

Aha! You know who has by far the best recent track record in that regard? Kluber, Clevinger, and Bieber were all 4th round picks.

 

That's Falvey's old team. I'm not going to opine that Falvey is bringing some of that magic dust to the Twins organization and that we should EXPECT results like that soon, but OTOH, as Parker Hageman and others are pointing out, there is enough of a revolution happening in the area of pitching development to at least not be despairing. Let's hope they have something brewing with guys like Balazovic, Ober, Colima, Dobnak, Enlow, Sands...

 

And yes, this doesn't solve the rotation problem in 2020. And pointing out how hard it is to find true Aces is not excuse-making.

[Mike Sixel]

They are thirty million under, and lose Cruz, Odorrizi, and likely Rosario next year. If they added twenty or twenty five million, who couldn't they sign to an extension?

 

They aren't signing Garver, he's a few years away and a catcher. That leaves Sano, Berrios and Buxton to sign in the next three years.....

[Mike Sixel]

On the subject of where do Aces come from, let's first think about how many active pitchers you can name who:

 

1) used to be Aces or near-Aces but ain't anymore: Hamels, Wainwright, Price, MadBum, Cueto, Gio Gonzalez, Jose Fernandez?... point being to acknowledge performance volatility and shelf life;

 

2) might become Aces: Giolito, Kopech, Buehler, Nola, Soroka, Whitley, Puk, Bieber, Clevinger? ... point being it's not a long list;

 

3) are Aces now or have been for a season at least, and might be again: Greinke, Verlander, Cole, Kershaw, Scherzer, Sonny Gray, deGrom, Kluber, Strasburg?...point being again, it's not a long list

 

So, if you combine the current Aces and aspiring ones, you basically have one for every other team.

 

Now, if you peek back at the last decade of 1st round draft picks, you'll count about 14 guys who all the pundits described as having that elusive Ace ceiling. Thats 1.5 guys per draft. Let's see how that group is faring: yes, a decade ago, Gerrit Cole came along. Sweet. Wanna count Bauer in there as an Ace? Cool. Wanna count Mize, Hunter Greene, Gore, Kopech, and Ian Anderson as sure bets? Well, okay, but...now you need to sort through all the OTHER guys who were gonna be Aces: Bundy, Kyle Zimmer, Gausman, Jon Gray, Appel, Rodon, Kolek, Aiken.

 

I know I'm missing names of a few current Aces. But not many! And the thing is, almost EVERY ONE of the names above was a first round selection in the draft.

 

People say, well, other teams are so much better at developing Aces from later round selections. My question is, exactly who are these teams, and exactly who are these developed Aces from deep in the bowels of the draft?

 

Aha! You know who has by far the best recent track record in that regard? Kluber, Clevinger, and Bieber were all 4th round picks.

 

That's Falvey's old team. I'm not going to opine that Falvey is bringing some of that magic dust to the Twins organization and that we should EXPECT results like that soon, but OTOH, as Parker Hageman and others are pointing out, there is enough of a revolution happening in the area of pitching development to at least not be despairing. Let's hope they have something brewing with guys like Balazovic, Ober, Colima, Dobnak, Enlow, Sands...

 

And yes, this doesn't solve the rotation problem in 2020. And pointing out how hard it is to find true Aces is not excuse-making.

I agree. If you won't sign the best free agents, you need to draft pitchers early. This team doesn't do that. They also have yet to trade for a big time pitcher. So, what should they do this year, with this team?

[bird]

 

I agree. If you won't sign the best free agents, you need to draft pitchers early. This team doesn't do that. They also have yet to trade for a big time pitcher. So, what should they do this year, with this team?

 

 

Trade or sign who they can, Mike. It won't be an Ace. 

 

This FO have had one shot at selecting a pitcher who the pros thought might be an Ace. They chose to go with Royce Lewis instead of Hunter Greene and Gore. Do you want to go on record that they screwed that one up? I love reminding you that you favored Gausman over Buxton and were pretty clear about that. 

 

Again, you can't keep pinning past decisions on this new organization. Let that go. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

On the subject of where do Aces come from, let's first think about how many active pitchers you can name who:

 

1) used to be Aces or near-Aces but ain't anymore: Hamels, Wainwright, Price, MadBum, Cueto, Gio Gonzalez, Jose Fernandez?... point being to acknowledge performance volatility and shelf life;

 

2) might become Aces: Giolito, Kopech, Buehler, Nola, Soroka, Whitley, Puk, Bieber, Clevinger? ... point being it's not a long list;

 

3) are Aces now or have been for a season at least, and might be again: Greinke, Verlander, Cole, Kershaw, Scherzer, Sonny Gray, deGrom, Kluber, Strasburg?...point being again, it's not a long list

 

So, if you combine the current Aces and aspiring ones,  you basically have one for every other team.

 

Now, if you peek back at the last decade of 1st round draft picks, you'll count about 14 guys who all the pundits described as having that elusive Ace ceiling. Thats 1.5 guys per draft. Let's see how that group is faring: yes, a decade ago, Gerrit Cole came along. Sweet. Wanna count Bauer in there as an Ace? Cool. Wanna count Mize, Hunter Greene, Gore, Kopech, and Ian Anderson as sure bets? Well, okay, but...now you need to sort through all the OTHER guys who were gonna be Aces: Bundy, Kyle Zimmer, Gausman, Jon Gray, Appel, Rodon, Kolek, Aiken.

 

I know I'm missing names of a few current Aces. But not many! And the thing is, almost EVERY ONE of the names above was a first round selection in the draft. Repeat: almost every one of them.

 

People say, well, other teams are so much better at developing Aces from later round selections. My question is, exactly who are these teams, and exactly who are these developed Aces from deep in the bowels of the draft? 

 

Aha! You know who has by far the best recent track record in that regard? Kluber, Clevinger, and Bieber were all 4th round picks.

 

That's Falvey's old team. I'm not going to opine that Falvey is bringing some of that magic dust to the Twins organization and that we should EXPECT results like that soon, but OTOH, as Parker Hageman and others are pointing out, there is enough of a revolution happening in the area of pitching development to at least not be despairing. Let's hope they have something brewing with guys like Balazovic, Ober, Colima, Dobnak, Enlow, Sands...

 

And yes, this doesn't solve the rotation problem in 2020. And pointing out how hard it is to find true Aces is not excuse-making.

Mike makes a great point.

 

You can’t argue on one hand that “aces” only come from First Round draft picks (you forgot to list Wheeler in there ) and then on the other hand, express your faith that the Twins will use superior analytics to produce some aces from the lesser group of prospects you list. I’d call the Odorizzi trade a success, but the Pérez signing didn’t work out, and the Pineda signing a wait-and-see.

 

Signing Bumgarner or Wheeler this off-season would have been an obviously good baseball decision in my opinion.

[Rusty Shackleford]

Ryu is not even close to an ace. He was a # 3 on the Dodgers. I don’t mind the Twins signing him, but he won’t solve our rotation problems.

[jorgenswest]

Berrios still can become an ace. They need to pay up and extend him.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll ask again, what should they do this off season?

[Mike Sixel]

I have no idea if they made a mistake or not, but I'd trade Lewis for Gore without hesitation.

[ewen21]

 

Yes, getting an "ace" is easier said than done. Well, guess what? The top teams manage to do it and actually win games in October.

Stop making excuses, and find a way to make it happen.

They way the Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, etc... do it and the way we can achieve it are two entirely different matters.  This idea that we should be spending like they do is a distraction from reality.  In 2003 the Marlins beat the Yankees with about a third of the payroll.  They did it because they had a stable of talented team-controlled arms and a very solid lineup with a mix of talent.  In 2015 the Mets and Royals made it to the WS.  The Mets payroll was 21st and the Royals was 16th.

 

I think complaining about spending money is a convenient excuse which ignores the real issue.  We DO NOT raise pitching AND we lack the balls to trade prospects to bring in some decent young pitching with two or more years of team control left.  Talking about how we don't make a splash in the free agent market is a waste of time.  It really is.

And I would be dollars to donuts the day we do we end up regretting it more likely than not

 

I think you guys talking about "get an ace!" are making the excuses.  Complaining about the lack of spending (when you know in your heart of hearts it won't happen) is a very convenient excuse.  We can always just throw that out there, but we really have not been smart or shrewd very often.  We don't raise pitching and have not for years and years.  We hitch up to prospects like they are our future instead simply viewing them as parts or assets.  We also don't have what I consider a winning culture.  TO win 101 games, get swept in the first round for the fourth consecutive time and have a manager who feels the need to say he "isn't frustrated at all" really is more of an issue as far as I am concerned.  That and the other things I mentioned

 

 

 

[ewen21]

 

Berrios still can become an ace. They need to pay up and extend him.

I wouldn't be so sure about that.  I am not entirely convinced.

Plus I did not like him smiling in the dugout getting bro hugs after pitching for stinking innings in the playoffs.  That isn't a winning attitude if you ask me.  Maybe he matures, but I need to see more maturity from the guy

[ewen21]

 

I have no idea if they made a mistake or not, but I'd trade Lewis for Gore without hesitation.

EXACTLY.

 

Stop viewing prospects as untouchables.  We obviously can't compete in the FA market for top of the line starting pitching.  Find another way.

 

[DocBauer]

They are thirty million under, and lose Cruz, Odorrizi, and likely Rosario next year. If they added twenty or twenty five million, who couldn't they sign to an extension?

They aren't signing Garver, he's a few years away and a catcher. That leaves Sano, Berrios and Buxton to sign in the next three years.....

Mike, a very smart post. And I wouldn't disagree at the heart of it. BUT...and At times there IS a BUT...what if Cruz is another Papi and performs just as well in 2020 as he did this year, and has done for years, is be really gone? Odorizzi has stated he'd like to sign an extension. I really don't have a clue what terms that may include as I type this, but if he pitches just as well in 2020 as 2019, or even improves as he's just at that precise point in his career where talent and knowledge meet, do you want him to walk? Rosario is a bit different, no matter how much I love him and still feel he hasn't reached full potential yet, because there are a few guys getting close who could make him replaceable.

 

Every season is unique unto itself, and that includes both roster and payroll. But to automatically assume a certain amount of payroll will be off the books is not salient. A team has to live season to season, BUT...and there is that BUT again...sometimes a team has to consider the long play as well.

 

I am NOT saying the Twins shouldn't spend! I hope they do and expect they will, though I am not certain who, how much, and is it all $ or prospects. And I promise you when they do, I will dance a happy and hopeful Snoopy dance! If I can figure out how to do so, I will attempt to post actual dance here on TD so everyone can laugh at me!

 

I just want whatever they do to be smart and not self-defeating down the line. There are options, cards to be played, and dominos to yet fall. Considering how crazy some contracts and demands are right now, I just don't want a move that sounds good but turns out not to be.

[Major League Ready]

 

I have no idea if they made a mistake or not, but I'd trade Lewis for Gore without hesitation.

 

Hopefully our front office will not make decisions "without hesitation" not knowing if it will be a mistake. Obviously nobody is sure about these decisions but the willy nilly approach is not exactly the kind of critical thinking that should not be the practice used for anything with this type of impact. Fans are not responsible for mistakes so it's pretty easy to say just go do something even if it's wrong. That kind of desperation is not exact;y consistent with good leadership. Better to avoid a mistake and find a better alternative.

[D.C Twins]

 

D C. Twins,. Last year we had three teams tanking. Next year we may have two depending on what Chicago does. With 19 games against each means we should win 70% against a tanking team. That's 13.3 wins against each tanking team. Against a team competing we should fall in the 60-40 or 55-45 depending on how competitive they are so against the Sox I would go so far as to say we should win around 55% of the time with more moves by both teams. That comes out to 10.45 wins. Close to a 3 win difference. Allow for variance and now we are a 96-98 win team without regression. With regression. I would say we are a 90-95 win team. And the 87-92 is if we are in a division where there are no tanking teams.

All good points.

 

I happen to think that Chicago will be dangerous next year and even more so in the three years following making our 'window' smaller than is generally advertised. And they are shaping up to have legit starting pitching.

 

In addition, I think Odo regresses a bit this year, Berrios has peaked out, and Pineda was indeed masking PEDs with diuretics and will suffer a bit for the lack of PEDs next year (remember that PEDs for pitchers are mainly to aid recovery so he might tail off toward the end of next year)

 

I also think our lack of depth in EXPERIENCED SP will be exposed by more of an injury bug this year (overall we were  pretty fortunate last year).

 

These are all just opinions of course...but why I have us settling out in the 87-92 win range

[kdag23]

They way the Yankees, Cubs, Dodgers, etc... do it and the way we can achieve it are two entirely different matters. This idea that we should be spending like they do is a distraction from reality. In 2003 the Marlins beat the Yankees with about a third of the payroll. They did it because they had a stable of talented team-controlled arms and a very solid lineup with a mix of talent. In 2015 the Mets and Royals made it to the WS. The Mets payroll was 21st and the Royals was 16th. I think complaining about spending money is a convenient excuse which ignores the real issue. We DO NOT raise pitching AND we lack the balls to trade prospects to bring in some decent young pitching with two or more years of team control left. Talking about how we don't make a splash in the free agent market is a waste of time. It really is.And I would be dollars to donuts the day we do we end up regretting it more likely than not I think you guys talking about "get an ace!" are making the excuses. Complaining about the lack of spending (when you know in your heart of hearts it won't happen) is a very convenient excuse. We can always just throw that out there, but we really have not been smart or shrewd very often. We don't raise pitching and have not for years and years. We hitch up to prospects like they are our future instead simply viewing them as parts or assets. We also don't have what I consider a winning culture. TO win 101 games, get swept in the first round for the fourth consecutive time and have a manager who feels the need to say he "isn't frustrated at all" really is more of an issue as far as I am concerned. That and the other things I mentioned

I'm not saying FA is the only way to go, and you bring up some good points about prospects. This team covets them instead of using them as trade chips when they could be used to bring in key talent to be more competitive now.

[bird]

 

Mike makes a great point.

You can’t argue on one hand that “aces” only come from First Round draft picks (you forgot to list Wheeler in there ) and then on the other hand, express your faith that the Twins will use superior analytics to produce some aces from the lesser group of prospects you list. I’d call the Odorizzi trade a success, but the Pérez signing didn’t work out, and the Pineda signing a wait-and-see.

Signing Bumgarner or Wheeler this off-season would have been an obviously good baseball decision in my opinion.

 

 

Wheeler was not viewed as an Ace until 18 teams chased him in FA, but he WAS a 1st round guy. Pineda WAS an impact guy. So was Odorizzi. Neither guy was better than Cole, Scherzer, Strasburg, Verlander. All drafted 1/1 I believe, none fitting this club's budget or that pitcher's interests. The comlaints about that are tiring and hint at myopia.

 

Perez was signed as a #5 starter. A really good decision at the time.

 

As I made clear in my comment, I don't see evidence that supports the fairly common criticism of the Twins that OTHER clubs routinely convert later draft picks into one of those Aces. I pointed to the one exception I can find in the last decade of perhaps doing it more than once, or coming close, and that's Cleveland with Kluber, and then Clevinger and Bieber.

 

I didn't express faith, as I'm not qualified to really have a strong conviction. I expressed hope, and based it on specific points, being Falvey's involvement with Cleveland, and the things that have been reported and in evidence regarding the changes and pretty promising minor league performances from those prospects.

 

As I described, even the 1st round history on those who were "no-brainers" has been abysmal. My intention was to shed light on the fact that there has been no simple answer to the question of how you find that elusive Ace, so I disagree with the simplistic notion that all you have to do is be smart enough to draft an Ace. 

 

It's really, really important to not be dismissive of the facts brought forward by Major League Ready. Teams draft, expecting an Ace. Teams sign FA's expecting an Ace. Look at the record. Fans with almost every franchise are saying exactly the same things Mike is saying.

 

I think the Ace worshipping is way overdone, for a number of reasons. One, the Hamptons often become Martin Perez wannabes. Or Lester becomes Lester. Second, injuries. Third, legitimate requirements in MOST clubs' situation to not become one of the clubs enjoying "financial inflexibility", the new market inefficiency.

 

Few around here, or on the CWS or a dozen other blogs, disagrees that Wheeler and MadBum would be good decisions. What drives me nuts is how people make it sound like Falvey is related to the greeter at Walmart and gets in before the place opens and grabs Wheeler off a sales table.

 

Go get what you can, Mr. Falvey. Be good and get lucky.

[bird]

 

I'll ask again, what should they do this off season?

 

 

I'll repeat: solve the rotation problem as best you can, through FA or trades. It won't be an Ace. There were two of them, and that wasn't happening. And please don't dismiss the reports that, according to sources other than the Twins, Falvey communicated they were ready to go further with their offer and were told not to bother, that #2 starter Wheeler wasn't leaving the east coast. That said, they perhaps should have avoided this pickle in the first place, something you've suggested a billion times.

[bird]

 

I have no idea if they made a mistake or not, but I'd trade Lewis for Gore without hesitation.

 

 

The two are close. Fangraphs gives Lewis the edge by about one slot in the rankings. So you're absolutely right, you have no idea if they made a mistake or not.

[specialiststeve]

Nice clean article and pretty much right on target. I tell my baseball freinds that Twin's are going to have a tough time advancing in the playoffs unless they get an ace. They are actively romancing Bumgarner... and Ryu. Everyone in baseball knew we weren't getting Cole or Strasburg. Not sure why the negative nellies are even more negative. We signed 2 good FA pitchers.. just happens they were our own. 

 

Still a trade for a young quality arm is more likely than anything and do not forget we have several quality arms in the minor leaguers... that is more like what we are going to be doing for the future. Stop thinking we are going to "outspend" the Goliath spending teams... just has never happened and never will. It's okay.. it's life in a small market town. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Wheeler was not viewed as an Ace until 18 teams chased him in FA, but he WAS a 1st round guy. Pineda WAS an impact guy. So was Odorizzi. Neither guy was better than Cole, Scherzer, Strasburg, Verlander. All drafted 1/1 I believe, none fitting this club's budget or that pitcher's interests. The comlaints about that are tiring and hint at myopia.

 

Perez was signed as a #5 starter. A really good decision at the time.

 

As I made clear in my comment, I don't see evidence that supports the fairly common criticism of the Twins that OTHER clubs routinely convert later draft picks into one of those Aces. I pointed to the one exception I can find in the last decade of perhaps doing it more than once, or coming close, and that's Cleveland with Kluber, and then Clevinger and Bieber.

 

I didn't express faith, as I'm not qualified to really have a strong conviction. I expressed hope, and based it on specific points, being Falvey's involvement with Cleveland, and the things that have been reported and in evidence regarding the changes and pretty promising minor league performances from those prospects.

 

As I described, even the 1st round history on those who were "no-brainers" has been abysmal. My intention was to shed light on the fact that there has been no simple answer to the question of how you find that elusive Ace, so I disagree with the simplistic notion that all you have to do is be smart enough to draft an Ace.

 

It's really, really important to not be dismissive of the facts brought forward by Major League Ready. Teams draft, expecting an Ace. Teams sign FA's expecting an Ace. Look at the record. Fans with almost every franchise are saying exactly the same things Mike is saying.

 

I think the Ace worshipping is way overdone, for a number of reasons. One, the Hamptons often become Martin Perez wannabes. Or Lester becomes Lester. Second, injuries. Third, legitimate requirements in MOST clubs' situation to not become one of the clubs enjoying "financial inflexibility", the new market inefficiency.

 

Few one around here, or on the CWS or a dozen other blogs, disagrees that Wheeler and MadBum would be good decisions. What drives me nuts is how people make it sound like Falvey is related to the greeter at Walmart and gets in before the place opens and grabs Wheeler off a sales table.

 

Go get what you can, Mr. Falvey. Be good and get lucky.

Still, the Twins should have “bothered” to make an offer anyway.

 

If the Twins had offered Wheeler 5/125 and Wheeler still turned it down, this whole media market would be awash in praise for Pohlad and the front office. The Falvey fans on this site would be in a frenzy. It’s all we would hear about until training camp—and probably long after that!

[kdag23]

At the end of the day, it's all conjecture. The probable reality is that it will be years before the Twins are anything more than that cute ball club up there in MN, little engine that could, and actually make it out of the first round or past that one wildcard play-in game.

[MABB1959]

I knew they wouldn't get a big name but I kept peeking in just in case.  I am just as frustrated by just as worried about they trading away, Berrios, Buxton and Sano when their big pay day is due.  There will be some excuse but there will be one.  I for one wouldn't want to come here and if I as Berrios, Buxton or Sano I would be hoping to get traded to a team that wants to win a WS not a team that thinks making the play-offs and not winning a good.  Last year was horrible, we got an extra 3 LOSING games.  Big whoop!

[David HK]

Well, there are in-house options, but still years away. The point is, the window is here right now, and no guarantee that it will be open at any point in the future- WSox, Cleve, all getting set and reloading, too.

 

You gotta throw those dice now. Get the 'aciest' guy you can, bite the bullet, and get rolling.