Front Page: Getting an “Ace” Easier Said Than Done

[Patrick Wozniak]

A combination of geography and a rebounding free agency market seem to be conspiring against Minnesota’s chances of acquiring a top-of-the-rotation starter this offseason. Most of the top starters don’t seem keen on pitching in Minnesota and the higher-than-expected contract dollars and length are not playing in the Twins favor.First, the most realistic and highly-coveted starter in Minnesota’s crosshairs, Zack Wheeler, signed a larger than expected $118 million deal with Philadelphia and turned down an even higher offer from the White Sox because he wanted to remain near his fiance’s home in New Jersey. And although the Twins never appeared to have a realistic chance of signing Gerrit Cole or Stephen Strasburg, their record-setting contracts have proved beyond a doubt that this is a pitcher’s market.

 

Of the starter’s left, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Dallas Keuchel have been linked with the Twins. Bumgarner and Keuchel were once both considered “aces” but are probably more mid-rotation starters at this point. Ryu was great in 2019 but has significant injury concerns and is already 32-years-old. Keuchel is a ground ball pitcher who may want a better infield defense backing him up.

 

Of course, no one wants to hear excuses at this time of year, but the fact that all three of these pitchers have their warts, may not want to pitch in Minnesota, and could end up getting paid significantly more than they are worth, point to a very realistic chance that the Twins will not end up with a “top-of-the-rotation” starter.

 

Trading for a starter is another possibility that has been floating around, but this presents some problems as well. For one, as the size of contracts being handed out right now points to, teams are willing to pay a heavy price for front-end starters. This could make a trade more expensive in terms of prospects, and the front office seems unlikely to pay a heavy price. Plus, the veteran starters being brought up in the rumor mill are expensive and far from sure things. Guys like David Price and Yu Darvish are expensive and haven’t been all that effective, and Chris Sale had a down year and was injured (he’s also expensive). All are getting older and may not be worth the risk.

 

A trade for a young starter would be great, but teams are generally loath to give up young pitching, so again, easier said than done. Additionally, with so many teams interested, the price will also likely be high.

 

Luckily, Minnesota already got two of the best pitching values this offseason. Michael Pineda was a steal at two years and $20 million, and the Twins were very fortunate that Jake Odorizzi agreed to forgo the market and accept the $17.8 million qualifying offer. The way the market has heated up, he surely could have done better. Although they are retreads, they have the potential to be the best signings outside of Strasburg and Cole (For more on Pineda’s upside, checkout Nick Nelson’s recent article).

 

While Minnesota in unlikely to be finished adding starting pitching this offseason, it’s looking more and more likely that whoever is added won’t be anyone fans are dreaming of. It has been a surprisingly robust market and things have not conspired in the Twins favor. However, like life, baseball is full of uncertainty. A year from now, we may be thankful that Bumgarner, Ryu, and Keuchel are not donning Twins jerseys (or unhappy that they are). And hey, there’s always the trade deadline!

 

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[D.C Twins]

Boy there is a lot of positive spin going on right now from TD writers for a team  that is currently about the same as last year minus Gibson with all signs pointing toward ending up with one additional starting pitcher equal to Gibson or worse.

 

Not only will this not fly in the playoffs, this team as constructed is more likely to win <90 games than >100 games.

 

The past two years represented the the opposite ends of the spectrum  of  the expected win range entering the season.

 

We are likely to find the middle ground of 87-92 wins this year as currently constructed with a wildcard game loss to a team that has a legit ACE.

[jrod23]

 

...I hate the Yankees.

[D.C Twins]

 

I'm game for a trade.  Overpaying for guys who can't put together a 200 inning season is not in our best interest.

Absolutely OK with this but it means that the FO will have to "overpay" with their coveted prospects (at least 2 of their top 5 in addition to others) to get an impact arm. 

 

As I've said before, the FO deserves ALOT of credit for thier drafting, player development and coaching choices.

 

BUT, obtaining impact pitching from outside the organization requires either an "overpay" of money or or an "overpay" in prospects.

 

This FO and ownership have yet to demonstrate the intestinal fortitude to do either. Risk will need to be taken unless our desire is to languish in mild to moderate competitiveness...

[Wyotwinsfan]

Just saw the Twins are going to sign Caleb Thielbar. He was probably easy to sign but not exactly the ace I was hoping for.

[Darius]

Nobody is getting paid more than they are worth. The market dictates what they are worth. The Twins actually want to pay less than what they are worth. There’s nothing/nobody “conspiring” against the Twins other than themselves. It shouldn’t be a mystery why nobody want to play for one of the of the top 5 most notoriously cheap franchises in Major League Baseball (yes, Phil Mackey....cheap...deal with it).

 

It seems there is a willingness to blame everything/everyone but the Twins right now. Spin it how you must. At the end of the day, the Twins are unwilling to pay what it takes to get requisite players here to compete for a championship next year. Bottom line. There is nothing wrong with fans being frustrated by this. In fact, going into the season with a payroll equal to or less than last year should be downright insulting to fans.

 

I’m noticing a huge media push to rationalize kicking the can down the road. Deferring hope. Some hacks are even going as far as calling the people who keep them relevant “morons,” for not swallowing the propaganda with a thank you.

 

They’ve returned a 100+ win young team. One of the greatest offenses of all time is sitting in the clubhouse. Not spending now should send a message loud and clear to fans if this club: Give up hope. Not one of the hundreds of articles written in the last few weeks will convince me otherwise.

[RaoulDuke]

Its time to overpay.  They have ample payroll space, they have a stacked farm system, they also have a gaping hole at the top of the rotation.

 

This team is in a great spot where 1 or 2 big additions makes them much better.  Take the risk and go get some big pieces. 

[Richard Swerdlick]

I still of watching Cleveland in the late summer when their pitching staff included 3 home grown starters from the 2016 draft. All of them were effective.I think building in house may be the way to go.

[CharlieDee]

I think it's way too early to call the Pineda signing a "steal"   He's already been suspended twice,so if he gets caught again what will the suspension be?  We signed him again because he came cheap. Period. He let the team down last season when playoff time arrived,and he still has over a month to serve on that suspension.

[Boom Boom]

Serious question for any fans not originally from Minnesota. Does any other fanbase or local media care as much as we do about their team spending money responsibly?

 

Twins fans and writers are so conditioned to protect the Pohlads' pocketbook. I guess I wonder if other markets go through the same "don't spend money just to spend money" spiel every offseason. If the Pohlads waste a bunch of money on a pitcher, they'll still have another zillion dollars in the bank to get more pitchers.

[Twodogs]

Im from up there in Twins country, but I've lived in Southern California for the last 20+ years and Angels fans complain about Pujols contract, they complain about Hamilton, Mo Vaughn, etc... It goes on and on about who they complain about as a waste of money.

[rv78]

 

Serious question for any fans not originally from Minnesota. Does any other fanbase or local media care as much as we do about their team spending money responsibly? Twins fans and writers are so conditioned to protect the Pohlads' pocketbook. I guess I wonder if other markets go through the same "don't spend money just to spend money" spiel every offseason. If the Pohlads waste a bunch of money on a pitcher, they'll still have another zillion dollars in the bank to get more pitchers.

 

Exactly. Twins fans have been brainwashed by the Twins FO and the local media that they have to spend responsibly. A new stadium with an increase in revenue and we are fed the same ol song and dance BS that they can't spend like the other teams. Every year the Pohlads make millions off the Twins. Would it really hurt them to lose a couple Million for a few years if it produced a Championship? It's not like the Twins are their only source of income. The window is now. The chance is now. 2020 will be 29 years since the 1991 Championship. Isn't that long enough of being cheap and NOT going for it? 29 years of putting money into the pockets of the owners with nothing to show for it. 

So no impact pitchers want to come to Minnesota to play. Why? Because they aren't committed to winning. Pure plain and simple.

[strumdatjaguar]

The fan base has to be concerned about blowing cash on a pitcher who will be a drag on the payroll in future years We know the Twins have a budget. It’s more than twice the payroll of the Rays. However, if they commit to spending too much on an aging pitcher, that blocks money to be used to make future acquisitions and to retain our own stars. Then the same fans who incorrectly complain about the “Cheap Pohlads”, in future years will complain about the stupid deal that brought the now “former star” pitcher who stinks up Target Field every five days. They’ll also complain about them being cheap for letting our own stars go in future years, because they agreed to a longterm expensive contract in 2019.

[Major League Ready]

 

Nobody is getting paid more than they are worth. The market dictates what they are worth. The Twins actually want to pay less than what they are worth. There’s nothing/nobody “conspiring” against the Twins other than themselves. It shouldn’t be a mystery why nobody want to play for one of the of the top 5 most notoriously cheap franchises in Major League Baseball (yes, Phil Mackey....cheap...deal with it).

 

 

Really, Eric Hosmer 8/144 was worth 36M for -.1 WAR. Had -.4 WAR for 2019?

 

Jd Martinez 5/120 – Was great in 2018 and dropped off considerably in 2019.  Cruz produced 1 WAR more than Martinez for half the money. Which investment helps the team to construct a winner?

 

Was Arrieta – 3/75/AAV 25 a good investment having produced 1.9 WAR in 2018 and 1.1 WAR in 2019?

The guy we settle for (Odorizzi) produced 2.6 WAR in 2018 and 4.3 WAR in 2019. Charlie Morton produced double the WAR for 60% of the AAV.

 

Cain – 5/80M – Had a great first year in 2018. Last year he produced 1.5 WAR.  Would you want him for 3/51 for his age 34-36 season? I would not.

 

Wade Davis – Was he worth 17M AAV for .8 WAR in 2018 and negative WAR in 2019?

 

2017

Cespedes produced 2.5 total WAR for 2017-19.
Fowler has averaged exactly 1 WAR over 3 years.
Jansen was great in 2017 and has produced a total of 1.5 WAR over the past two seasons.

 

David Price 7/217/AAV of #31M – He has been decent but not a difference maker. Quite good the 1st year (4.5 WAR). He has averaged 2.1 WAR over the past 3 years so he certainly has not been a difference maker and had we signed him he would likely be a detriment at 32M annually for the next 3 years. He most certainly would not have been “worth” the investment.

 

The were several other big deals in 2017. The next 5 in AAV are Chris Davis / Jason Heyward / Johnny Cueto / Justin Upton Jordan Zimmerman, and Jeff Samardzija.  Davis is below replacement level. Hayward is a 4th outfielder. Johnny Cueto had a great first year and has produced basically nothing ever since. Zimmerman produced 4.4 WAR over 4 years. Samardzjia was average in 2016, good in 2017 with 3.8 War and had .2 WAR in 2018 and 1.5 WAR in 2019. They received $924M collectively and produced a total of 32.4 WAR for 24 seasons collectively for an average of 1.35 WAR and an average cost of $28M per WAR.

 

2014

Robinson Cano 10/240/AAV 24
WAR 5.6 / 2.8 / 6.2 / 3.2 / 2.9 / .8
Cano produced quite well though his age 37 season. The problem was this was an absurd length. His remaining 4 year 96M remaining contract will be a serious impediment the next 4 yrs.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury 7/153/AAV 21.1. One particular poster here lobbied very hard for him back when he was signed. Just over 1 WAR per year for 21M/year. Is that a good way to build a winner?
WAR 3.5 / 1.1 / 1.7 / 1.6 / 0 / 0 / 0  Ave 1.13

 

Shin-Soo Choo 7/130/AAV 18.6. He averaged 1.5 WAR. /

 

2013

Josh Hamilton 5/125/AAV25. Now that was worth it.
WAR 1.3 / 1.1 / .4 / 0 / 0  Ave .56 / 44.46M per 1WAR

 

Melvin Upton 5/72.5/AAV 14.5
WAR -.9 / 0 / 1.5 / 1.3 / 0  Ave .38 / 38.16M per 1WAR

2012

 

Alber Pujlos 10/240/AAV 24
WAR 3.3 / .5 / 2.7 / 1.6 / .7 / -1.9 / -.2 / -.4  Ave .79 / 28.7M per 1WAR and they still have two years / 59M remaining, likely at replacement level. 

 

Prince Fielder 9/214/AAV 23.77
WAR 5.0 / 2.7 / -.4 / 2.0 / .7 / -1.9 / 0 / 0 / 0  Ave .95 / 26.75M per 1WAR

 

CJ Wilson 5/77.5/AAV 15.5
WAR 2.2 / 3.2 / .7 / 1.5 / 0 /   Ave 1.52 / 10.19.75M per 1WAR

 

Failures on the scale Pujlos, Hamilton and Fielder would sink our team for several years. So, I can’t agree with your position they are worth whatever the market pays.

[Doctor Wu]

 

I still of watching Cleveland in the late summer when their pitching staff included 3 home grown starters from the 2016 draft. All of them were effective.I think building in house may be the way to go.

I agree, I think building in-house is always the best way to go. But that's contingent on the front office drafting better pitchers and developing them properly. For the most part, that has never happened in Minnesota. The best starting pitchers in the past two decades (Santana and Liriano) were either acquired by trade or as a (non-direct) result of the Rule 5 draft.

[mikelink45]

The FA stars are gone, the dregs are no better than what we have.  Remember that Plutko and Civale were outstanding in Cleveland last year - who had heard of them?  Lets start working the magic with our own pitchers.  Make Thorpe and Graterol into the new Ace in waiting pair.  Or Dobnak, Smeltzer, Poppen.

 

Time to stop anguishing over money not spent.

[lukeduke1980]

I think the price of a future Berrios extension went up this winter and is blowing up the future budget. I think theres still a chance for Keuchel or Ryu for 2 years and a nice couple option years, but I don't expect any long term deal for Bumgardner. Bring on Thorpedo and Smeltzer.

[miracleb]

 

Nobody is getting paid more than they are worth. The market dictates what they are worth. The Twins actually want to pay less than what they are worth. There’s nothing/nobody “conspiring” against the Twins other than themselves. It shouldn’t be a mystery why nobody want to play for one of the of the top 5 most notoriously cheap franchises in Major League Baseball (yes, Phil Mackey....cheap...deal with it).

It seems there is a willingness to blame everything/everyone but the Twins right now. Spin it how you must. At the end of the day, the Twins are unwilling to pay what it takes to get requisite players here to compete for a championship next year. Bottom line. There is nothing wrong with fans being frustrated by this. In fact, going into the season with a payroll equal to or less than last year should be downright insulting to fans.

I’m noticing a huge media push to rationalize kicking the can down the road. Deferring hope. Some hacks are even going as far as calling the people who keep them relevant “morons,” for not swallowing the propaganda with a thank you.

They’ve returned a 100+ win young team. One of the greatest offenses of all time is sitting in the clubhouse. Not spending now should send a message loud and clear to fans if this club: Give up hope. Not one of the hundreds of articles written in the last few weeks will convince me otherwise.

I mostly agree with this as far as the market dictates what someone is worth initially.  But, we can ALL look at a 5 year contract...after the 5 years are up.....and determine if the contract was worth it or not.  Some we might be able to debate, but most are definitely "the front office made an excellent signing"...or..."the front office completely blew it".  The concern is losing your job because of botched signings.  "Taking a risk" or "signing an obviously bad contract just to get a guy" is how FO careers get ended.   THAT is what the front office is concerned with.

[rdehring]

Although I get tired of reading all the bitching about who the Twins didn't sign, I would much rather read that than a few years from now be reading about how pitcher X is getting paid a ton, isn't producing squat and is keeping the Twins from keeping several prospects who are nearing free agency.

 

As for winning in the playoffs, nothing says that Berrios or Odorizzi can't go out and pitch one of their best games of the year and beat those blasted Yankees.  

 

Am I disappointed that the Twins didn't sign Wheeler, yup.  Do I look forward to their signing any of Kuechel, Ryu or Bumgarner...not really.  I think all three will be ok in 2020 and a drag on the team by the middle of their too long contracts.  Hopefully, the Twins sign some reclamation project for #4 and he losses his spot in the rotation by July to whomever wins the right to pitch in Pindeda's spot the first six weeks.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Really, Eric Hosmer 8/144 was worth 36M for -.1 WAR. Had -.4 WAR for 2019?

 

Jd Martinez 5/120 – Was great in 2018 and dropped off considerably in 2019.  Cruz produced 1 WAR more than Martinez for half the money. Which investment helps the team to construct a winner?

 

Was Arrieta – 3/75/AAV 25 a good investment having produced 1.9 WAR in 2018 and 1.1 WAR in 2019?

The guy we settle for (Odorizzi) produced 2.6 WAR in 2018 and 4.3 WAR in 2019. Charlie Morton produced double the WAR for 60% of the AAV.

 

Cain – 5/80M – Had a great first year in 2018. Last year he produced 1.5 WAR.  Would you want him for 3/51 for his age 34-36 season? I would not.

 

Wade Davis – Was he worth 17M AAV for .8 WAR in 2018 and negative WAR in 2019?

 

2017

Cespedes produced 2.5 total WAR for 2017-19.
Fowler has averaged exactly 1 WAR over 3 years.
Jansen was great in 2017 and has produced a total of 1.5 WAR over the past two seasons.

 

David Price 7/217/AAV of #31M – He has been decent but not a difference maker. Quite good the 1st year (4.5 WAR). He has averaged 2.1 WAR over the past 3 years so he certainly has not been a difference maker and had we signed him he would likely be a detriment at 32M annually for the next 3 years. He most certainly would not have been “worth” the investment.

 

The were several other big deals in 2017. The next 5 in AAV are Chris Davis / Jason Heyward / Johnny Cueto / Justin Upton Jordan Zimmerman, and Jeff Samardzija.  Davis is below replacement level. Hayward is a 4th outfielder. Johnny Cueto had a great first year and has produced basically nothing ever since. Zimmerman produced 4.4 WAR over 4 years. Samardzjia was average in 2016, good in 2017 with 3.8 War and had .2 WAR in 2018 and 1.5 WAR in 2019. They received $924M collectively and produced a total of 32.4 WAR for 24 seasons collectively for an average of 1.35 WAR and an average cost of $28M per WAR.

 

2014

Robinson Cano 10/240/AAV 24
WAR 5.6 / 2.8 / 6.2 / 3.2 / 2.9 / .8
Cano produced quite well though his age 37 season. The problem was this was an absurd length. His remaining 4 year 96M remaining contract will be a serious impediment the next 4 yrs.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury 7/153/AAV 21.1. One particular poster here lobbied very hard for him back when he was signed. Just over 1 WAR per year for 21M/year. Is that a good way to build a winner?
WAR 3.5 / 1.1 / 1.7 / 1.6 / 0 / 0 / 0  Ave 1.13

 

Shin-Soo Choo 7/130/AAV 18.6. He averaged 1.5 WAR. /

 

2013

Josh Hamilton 5/125/AAV25. Now that was worth it.
WAR 1.3 / 1.1 / .4 / 0 / 0  Ave .56 / 44.46M per 1WAR

 

Melvin Upton 5/72.5/AAV 14.5
WAR -.9 / 0 / 1.5 / 1.3 / 0  Ave .38 / 38.16M per 1WAR

2012

 

Alber Pujlos 10/240/AAV 24
WAR 3.3 / .5 / 2.7 / 1.6 / .7 / -1.9 / -.2 / -.4  Ave .79 / 28.7M per 1WAR and they still have two years / 59M remaining, likely at replacement level. 

 

Prince Fielder 9/214/AAV 23.77
WAR 5.0 / 2.7 / -.4 / 2.0 / .7 / -1.9 / 0 / 0 / 0  Ave .95 / 26.75M per 1WAR

 

CJ Wilson 5/77.5/AAV 15.5
WAR 2.2 / 3.2 / .7 / 1.5 / 0 /   Ave 1.52 / 10.19.75M per 1WAR

 

Failures on the scale Pujlos, Hamilton and Fielder would sink our team for several years. So, I can’t agree with your position they are worth whatever the market pays.

 

Then what, exactly is your plan to make this club competitive now? Are you willing to PUNT on this core because they don't have pitching? Do you think it's best to wait around and waste these guys while we wait for our pitching prospects to develop?

 

I understand where you are coming from with the examples you give. I'm not all for signing big name guys when they are older for big money. But what exactly do you propose they do in order to help this team now and the next 1-3 years?

 

I mean, they could trade for top of the rotation pitching, but we all know that will require Lewis or Graterol or both. Twins have never shown the want to move these types of prospects. Basically, they really have never taken a chance. It's always been safe play, focusing on getting in the "mix" with no real eye on actually going for it. 

 

The way this team is set up. It is time to spend big either with your dollar bills, or with your prospects. We are all waiting for them to take some risk. My gut tells me though that whether it is Pohlad or the FO, they don't have the guts to actually go for it.  

[Battle ur tail off]

 

 

As for winning in the playoffs, nothing says that Berrios or Odorizzi can't go out and pitch one of their best games of the year and beat those blasted Yankees.  

 

 

 

You didn't watch last year, did you. Nothing says they can't, other than they didn't last year. They both had their chances and the Yankees toyed with them until they had to give in. Once they did and started grooving pitches, they were in trouble. 

 

Hope and prayer gets old. 

[kdag23]

Yes, getting an "ace" is easier said than done. Well, guess what? The top teams manage to do it and actually win games in October.

 

Stop making excuses, and find a way to make it happen.

[bird]

 

Just saw the Twins are going to sign Caleb Thielbar. He was probably easy to sign but not exactly the ace I was hoping for.

 

 

How pessimistic of you. Just wait til Wes works his magic.

[bird]

 

Really, Eric Hosmer 8/144 was worth 36M for -.1 WAR. Had -.4 WAR for 2019?

 

Jd Martinez 5/120 – Was great in 2018 and dropped off considerably in 2019.  Cruz produced 1 WAR more than Martinez for half the money. Which investment helps the team to construct a winner?

 

Was Arrieta – 3/75/AAV 25 a good investment having produced 1.9 WAR in 2018 and 1.1 WAR in 2019?

The guy we settle for (Odorizzi) produced 2.6 WAR in 2018 and 4.3 WAR in 2019. Charlie Morton produced double the WAR for 60% of the AAV.

 

Cain – 5/80M – Had a great first year in 2018. Last year he produced 1.5 WAR.  Would you want him for 3/51 for his age 34-36 season? I would not.

 

Wade Davis – Was he worth 17M AAV for .8 WAR in 2018 and negative WAR in 2019?

 

2017

Cespedes produced 2.5 total WAR for 2017-19.
Fowler has averaged exactly 1 WAR over 3 years.
Jansen was great in 2017 and has produced a total of 1.5 WAR over the past two seasons.

 

David Price 7/217/AAV of #31M – He has been decent but not a difference maker. Quite good the 1st year (4.5 WAR). He has averaged 2.1 WAR over the past 3 years so he certainly has not been a difference maker and had we signed him he would likely be a detriment at 32M annually for the next 3 years. He most certainly would not have been “worth” the investment.

 

The were several other big deals in 2017. The next 5 in AAV are Chris Davis / Jason Heyward / Johnny Cueto / Justin Upton Jordan Zimmerman, and Jeff Samardzija.  Davis is below replacement level. Hayward is a 4th outfielder. Johnny Cueto had a great first year and has produced basically nothing ever since. Zimmerman produced 4.4 WAR over 4 years. Samardzjia was average in 2016, good in 2017 with 3.8 War and had .2 WAR in 2018 and 1.5 WAR in 2019. They received $924M collectively and produced a total of 32.4 WAR for 24 seasons collectively for an average of 1.35 WAR and an average cost of $28M per WAR.

 

2014

Robinson Cano 10/240/AAV 24
WAR 5.6 / 2.8 / 6.2 / 3.2 / 2.9 / .8
Cano produced quite well though his age 37 season. The problem was this was an absurd length. His remaining 4 year 96M remaining contract will be a serious impediment the next 4 yrs.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury 7/153/AAV 21.1. One particular poster here lobbied very hard for him back when he was signed. Just over 1 WAR per year for 21M/year. Is that a good way to build a winner?
WAR 3.5 / 1.1 / 1.7 / 1.6 / 0 / 0 / 0  Ave 1.13

 

Shin-Soo Choo 7/130/AAV 18.6. He averaged 1.5 WAR. /

 

2013

Josh Hamilton 5/125/AAV25. Now that was worth it.
WAR 1.3 / 1.1 / .4 / 0 / 0  Ave .56 / 44.46M per 1WAR

 

Melvin Upton 5/72.5/AAV 14.5
WAR -.9 / 0 / 1.5 / 1.3 / 0  Ave .38 / 38.16M per 1WAR

2012

 

Alber Pujlos 10/240/AAV 24
WAR 3.3 / .5 / 2.7 / 1.6 / .7 / -1.9 / -.2 / -.4  Ave .79 / 28.7M per 1WAR and they still have two years / 59M remaining, likely at replacement level. 

 

Prince Fielder 9/214/AAV 23.77
WAR 5.0 / 2.7 / -.4 / 2.0 / .7 / -1.9 / 0 / 0 / 0  Ave .95 / 26.75M per 1WAR

 

CJ Wilson 5/77.5/AAV 15.5
WAR 2.2 / 3.2 / .7 / 1.5 / 0 /   Ave 1.52 / 10.19.75M per 1WAR

 

Failures on the scale Pujlos, Hamilton and Fielder would sink our team for several years. So, I can’t agree with your position they are worth whatever the market pays.

 

 

You cherrypicker you. 

[Riverbrian]

 

I still of watching Cleveland in the late summer when their pitching staff included 3 home grown starters from the 2016 draft. All of them were effective.I think building in house may be the way to go.

 

Absolutely every day of the week and twice on Sunday.

 

However, failure to do so means... We must pay at this moment. 

 

 

[MMMordabito]

Sounds like a deal could be in the works for Elieser Hernandez.

 

The Twins hot stove season is saved!!

[cardsfan]

Really, Eric Hosmer 8/144 was worth 36M for -.1 WAR. Had -.4 WAR for 2019?

 

Jd Martinez 5/120 – Was great in 2018 and dropped off considerably in 2019. Cruz produced 1 WAR more than Martinez for half the money. Which investment helps the team to construct a winner?

 

Was Arrieta – 3/75/AAV 25 a good investment having produced 1.9 WAR in 2018 and 1.1 WAR in 2019?

The guy we settle for (Odorizzi) produced 2.6 WAR in 2018 and 4.3 WAR in 2019. Charlie Morton produced double the WAR for 60% of the AAV.

 

Cain – 5/80M – Had a great first year in 2018. Last year he produced 1.5 WAR. Would you want him for 3/51 for his age 34-36 season? I would not.

 

Wade Davis – Was he worth 17M AAV for .8 WAR in 2018 and negative WAR in 2019?

 

2017

Cespedes produced 2.5 total WAR for 2017-19.

Fowler has averaged exactly 1 WAR over 3 years.

Jansen was great in 2017 and has produced a total of 1.5 WAR over the past two seasons.

 

David Price 7/217/AAV of #31M – He has been decent but not a difference maker. Quite good the 1st year (4.5 WAR). He has averaged 2.1 WAR over the past 3 years so he certainly has not been a difference maker and had we signed him he would likely be a detriment at 32M annually for the next 3 years. He most certainly would not have been “worth” the investment.

 

The were several other big deals in 2017. The next 5 in AAV are Chris Davis / Jason Heyward / Johnny Cueto / Justin Upton Jordan Zimmerman, and Jeff Samardzija. Davis is below replacement level. Hayward is a 4th outfielder. Johnny Cueto had a great first year and has produced basically nothing ever since. Zimmerman produced 4.4 WAR over 4 years. Samardzjia was average in 2016, good in 2017 with 3.8 War and had .2 WAR in 2018 and 1.5 WAR in 2019. They received $924M collectively and produced a total of 32.4 WAR for 24 seasons collectively for an average of 1.35 WAR and an average cost of $28M per WAR.

 

2014

Robinson Cano 10/240/AAV 24

WAR 5.6 / 2.8 / 6.2 / 3.2 / 2.9 / .8

Cano produced quite well though his age 37 season. The problem was this was an absurd length. His remaining 4 year 96M remaining contract will be a serious impediment the next 4 yrs.

 

Jacoby Ellsbury 7/153/AAV 21.1. One particular poster here lobbied very hard for him back when he was signed. Just over 1 WAR per year for 21M/year. Is that a good way to build a winner?

WAR 3.5 / 1.1 / 1.7 / 1.6 / 0 / 0 / 0 Ave 1.13

 

Shin-Soo Choo 7/130/AAV 18.6. He averaged 1.5 WAR. /

 

2013

Josh Hamilton 5/125/AAV25. Now that was worth it.

WAR 1.3 / 1.1 / .4 / 0 / 0 Ave .56 / 44.46M per 1WAR

 

Melvin Upton 5/72.5/AAV 14.5

WAR -.9 / 0 / 1.5 / 1.3 / 0 Ave .38 / 38.16M per 1WAR

2012

 

Alber Pujlos 10/240/AAV 24

WAR 3.3 / .5 / 2.7 / 1.6 / .7 / -1.9 / -.2 / -.4 Ave .79 / 28.7M per 1WAR and they still have two years / 59M remaining, likely at replacement level.

 

Prince Fielder 9/214/AAV 23.77

WAR 5.0 / 2.7 / -.4 / 2.0 / .7 / -1.9 / 0 / 0 / 0 Ave .95 / 26.75M per 1WAR

 

CJ Wilson 5/77.5/AAV 15.5

WAR 2.2 / 3.2 / .7 / 1.5 / 0 / Ave 1.52 / 10.19.75M per 1WAR

 

Failures on the scale Pujlos, Hamilton and Fielder would sink our team for several years. So, I can’t agree with your position they are worth whatever the market pays.

You should mention to prevent one of your players from hitting free agency like the Tigers signing Cabrera to a terrible contract.

[Major League Ready]

 

You should mention to prevent one of your players from hitting free agency like the Tigers signing Cabrera to a terrible contract.

 

No argument here. Those are harder to identify. I put together this information last year when posters kept insisting signing this type of free agent was essential to winning, taking the next step, etc. Of course, there was never any proof of concept supplied so I wanted to educate myself as to the relative success or production of these contracts. It also is not really relevant to the specific argument for signing a given type of free agent so I never went down the path of guys that were extended.

[cardsfan]

Serious question for any fans not originally from Minnesota. Does any other fanbase or local media care as much as we do about their team spending money responsibly?Twins fans and writers are so conditioned to protect the Pohlads' pocketbook. I guess I wonder if other markets go through the same "don't spend money just to spend money" spiel every offseason. If the Pohlads waste a bunch of money on a pitcher, they'll still have another zillion dollars in the bank to get more pitchers.

That goes on in our main Cardinals message board all of the time. Some of the posters use more than one alias.

 

We are told about our failed signings sometimes blown out of proportion and then urged to assign free agents that usually are disasters.

 

You wouldn't know that the Cardinals were only mathematically eliminated from the postseason for only 3 days since 2011 by reading their posts. They maintained a winning record for 19 of last 20 years.

 

Oh, they made some free agent mistakes and almost re-signed Pujols and Heyward.

[Dman]

I am torn.  I do want them to overspend but only for three year deals and that might not get it done.  I think they can work in an over pay for three years and not affect the club much especially if ownership is willing to push the budget now that the team is really good.  

 

On the flip side I hate to be hindered by an unproductive player and dead money for several years.   With a 100 win team sitting there I hate to live on hope with our young pitching but if just a couple of guys out of potentially 7 come through it would sure help us keep this team together longer.

 

It is a tough call for me. I am not sure which way is best to go. However, the FO does need to come through for us this is why they earn the big bucks.  They need to be right when they make the tough choices. They cannot stand pat.  Be it overpay or trade they need to do something to make this team better.  They have the payroll space and the trade capital.  They have a good team waiting in the wings they need to make a move.  A move that helps this team compete in the playoffs.