How high and long would you go for Ryu?

[ewen21]

I know what ephemeral means and I was trying to be ironic. I don’t know about you, But I remember 1991 only because of the games in October. Had we gone all the way in 2006 it would’ve been a season for the ages. It’s barely talked about now

 

I’m trying my best to explain this to you but I don’t feel the need to talk about a word and lard up these pages with that. People want to discuss Ryu. Can we please honor that here? I PMed you in hopes that this discussion wouldn’t carry out on the board

[Riverbrian]

 

Again, can we stick to Ryu here?

 

Don't worry... I'm out. 

[Vanimal46]

Update:

 

[Mike Sixel]

Pay the stupidity tax

 

Pretty counterintuitive (and counterproductive) rallying cry this offseason

And I don’t agree this team any more ready to win now than about half the league. Seems like last season was a ephemeral moment. Something “not sustainable”

 

That short postseason series didn’t show us this? Ryu and Bumgarner are 50/50 to make it through the 2020, let alone beyond

 

(Tax my stupidity if you must)

So, pocket the money? I'm not sure what you are suggesting to improve the team.

[obtusebanter]

 

The margins are so thin that those good and bad fluctuations from play to play determines who advances and 2019 has nothing to do with 2017. 

 

I'm of the opinion that running back the roster from last year, which our squad has done thus far, is a fine strategy. I mean, they won 101 games!  

 

That said, winning another 101 games with the same squad in 2020 is optimistic. 90+ wins is realistic and that means its a d*mn good ballclub. And having a d*mn good ballclub is the time to roll the dice on getting an ace. I'd hope the FO is haggling in the range of 4/90.  

 

edit: Why must the double-space truncate the text? *shakes fist*

[Twodogs]

I don't think Ryu is the Ace that will lead us to the promised Land. He will make our rotation better, however, he hasn't thrown more than 200 innings in a season since his first two seasons over seas. Madbum has thrown tons of 200 inning seasons. I think Ryu over a 4 year deal will average about 15 - 20 starts per year. One year he may start 30 games, but the next year he'll start 10. It is just not that predictable. But in those starts he will be tough. It's just he is not that reliable as far as pitching goes anymore. In all of the post season extravaganza that the Dodgers have had over the last bunch of years, Ryu has a total of 8 starts of which he has a 4.00 era and has only averaged 5 innings per start. Not exactly ace like, no reason to think he will all of the sudden do better now. I mean Cole, Strasburg, Verlander, etc... We're regularly throwing 7 inning games in post season. So even with Ryu we still don't match up, we become overly dependant on our bullpen. Ryu makes the rotation more solid for the regular season but does not shore us up for a playoff run.

[AlwaysinModeration]

To answer the OP question, I’d go up to $20/year for three years for Ryu. I’m not sure the Twins brass would give him a fourth year at that rate, and I’m not sure I would either.

 

He’s only been in the league six years. He had was very good his first year, and great last year. Other than that, nothing extraordinary. He doesn’t walk guys. But also remember that he played in a big park in the NL.

 

I’m not saying he’s bad, or a bad option. I’m just a little wary.

 

If I’m looking to get an impact pitcher in his early/mid 30s, I might look at Price before Ryu.

[old nurse]

 

To answer the OP question, I’d go up to $20/year for three years for Ryu. I’m not sure the Twins brass would give him a fourth year at that rate, and I’m not sure I would either.

He’s only been in the league six years. He had was very good his first year, and great last year. Other than that, nothing extraordinary. He doesn’t walk guys. But also remember that he played in a big park in the NL.

I’m not saying he’s bad, or a bad option. I’m just a little wary.

If I’m looking to get an impact pitcher in his early/mid 30s, I might look at Price before Ryu.

3/96 for Price would make sense  only if there was some good reason to bail out the Sox.  They are capped out and really have very few prospects.  I am not sure either pitcher is a candidate for most durable pitcher.

[Dman]

If 4\90 gets it done I think they might have to do it.  They should get their moneys worth for at least 2 of the 4 years and with some luck maybe all four.  I think this team can handle the 22M AAV easily the next two years and we have young guys coming up so with arb increases etc they should be able to move money around in the third and fourth years.  If 4/90 gets it done I think they should do it but that would be my ultimate stretch point. 

 

I really thought 3/75 was going to do it. Guess I was wrong.

[Steve Lein]

Highest I'm probably going is 3 years, $70MIL. 

 

If only way to get it done is a fourth year, I'd go to $80MIL. 

 

I think $100MIL+ is bananapants crazy for someone with his health history.

 

I also think he's going to sign with someone for less than my high above. 

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Update:

 

pay it and get him here. 

[nicksaviking]

Ryu is easily my 4th favorite free agent pitcher this year and it's a sharp decline after that.

 

I'm a bit worried that he's just waiting for the Dodgers to make him an offer though. You'd have to think the Twins would have to blow their offer out of the water to get him. He did take their QO last year after all, if a two year deal from the Dodgers beats a three year deal from the Twins I think this board might burn down.

[Mike Frasier Law]

I think Ryu is excellent when on the field. Considering owners likely have insurance policies covering significant injuries, it makes sense to me to go crazy here. I know this is a change of my own tune from a few days ago, but I think we need to adjust to the market.

 

I'd do what it takes to sign him. 4/80? 4/90? If he's pitching, he's worth it. If he's not pitching, the Twins will need to find another starter at that point.

[jud6312]

It's hard to argue with Ryu's results when he's been on the field, but it's also impossible to look at time spent on the IL and not pause.

 

I'd probably roll the dice on 4/$75M if that's what it takes and hope for the best.

 

That said, I just don't see it happening. I'm guessing it'll be retreads and rookies behind Berrios and Odo.

 

 

[jud6312]

 

Ryu is easily my 4th favorite free agent pitcher this year and it's a sharp decline after that.

 

I'm a bit worried that he's just waiting for the Dodgers to make him an offer though. You'd have to think the Twins would have to blow their offer out of the water to get him. He did take their QO last year after all, if a two year deal from the Dodgers beats a three year deal from the Twins I think this board might burn down.

 

My sources tell me Ryu is scared of lutefisk. We don't need that kind of negativity here.

[nicksaviking]

 

My sources tell me Ryu is scared of lutefisk. We don't need that kind of negativity here.

 

I doubt his fear of lutefisk can possibly top my fear of lutefisk.

[jud6312]

 

I doubt his fear of lutefisk can possibly top my fear of lutefisk.

 

The, I fear, you're no longer on the radar for the rotation.

[bunsen82]

We have at minimum  $30 million available, that still has value for FA or potential trade targets.  Ryu intrigues me especially with Wes Johnson.  For his control and repetitive motion, his injury history is very high.  He has not gotten through a full season since 2013, yet when he pitches, he is a top 3 pitcher. 

 

Where Wes can come in.  Wes is big on pitching in an ergonomically correct method, that maximizes core strength and especially the legs and feet.  I have a feeling Ryu for all his greatness, is also putting unseen stress on his arm and causing some of his other injuries although they have seemed to be a bit flukey.  Wes can also determine whether changing the pitching motion slightly could be beneficial not only health wise but potentially add a mile or 2 per an hour to the fastball, get it in the 92mph range, or whether that will potentially increase his injury risk.  Long run, Ryu can be successful as his stuff does not require an elite fastball to be effective.  He is effective right now maintaining a 90 mph fastball, and 4 other pitches that he has elite command of 1-2 pitches, and good command on all others.  It all comes down to his health and whether mechanically you can improve enough to get 160 or slightly more innings per a year for the next 3-4 years.  Those odds don't sound great on the surface, but I think Wes could make this a very effective gamble if they were to go that way.  I think I go a bit on the high side and offer 4 years at 28 million $112 total and see where the chips fall. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Update:

It feels like some of those folks also expected Bumgarner to do better than 5/85, no?

 

I think Ryu should be able to top MLBTR's projected 3/54, but I'm not sure how much of a boost he'll get yet. (Bumgarner himself got 1 more year, at $1 mil less AAV, than MLBTR's projection.)

[bunsen82]

I think the Twins will have to be a severe overpay if the angles or Dodgers offer a decent offer, possibly 5-7 million more per a year.  That is why I said I would be willing to go as high as 28 million.  If we can get him for less great, but we are not a current destination focus for him, we have to make him change his mind.  I would be willing to go for it assuming Wes Johnson signs off. 

[Steve Lein]

 

It feels like some of those folks also expected Bumgarner to do better than 5/85, no?

 

I think Ryu should be able to top MLBTR's projected 3/54, but I'm not sure how much of a boost he'll get yet. (Bumgarner himself got 1 more year, at $1 mil less AAV, than MLBTR's projection.)

 

Yeah, the talk was Bumgarner was looking for, maybe even expecting, 9 figures... He didn't come particularly close to that.

 

I'll predict 4 years, $70MIL for Ryu. And it won't be from the Twins.

[Battle ur tail off]

Doesn't really matter folks. Twins are thinking the same things we are. The only difference is, they are unwilling to pay the "stupidity tax" that has been talked about here. 

 

My guess, Twins offer 3 years/55 mill. He will probably sign for 4/75 or so. That is my guess, take it with a grain of salt. This whole process should have taught us something by now. This group will NOT overpay for someone, they need to get value or they are not about it. 

[Vanimal46]

 

If I had a dollar every time I heard this line.... I’d have at least 3 dollars this winter.

[Mr. Brooks]

And this is why people are skeptical of the Twins motives.

All the "interest" in the world is meaningless if you aren't willing to go the extra year, or player opt out or dollar amount that it's going to take to actually sign the guy.

[dex8425]

1. Ryu at four years is a dumb idea.

2. We cannot begin 2020 with Berrios, Odo, and three rookies in the rotation. 

 

Now that Madbum, Wheeler and Cole are gone, I predict the Twins will follow their strategy of pursuing a bargain deal for a guy whose ceiling is a #3 starter, either through trade or FA.

 

This has not really worked out well in the past, (Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana) but that's what happens when you're unwilling to part with prospects and are unwilling to pay for a legitimate #1-2 starter. 

[laloesch]

Simple

 

And this is why people are skeptical of the Twins motives.
All the "interest" in the world is meaningless if you aren't willing to go the extra year, or player opt out or dollar amount that it's going to take to actually sign the guy.

EXACTLY. Simple, do they really want the guy or not? Sounds to me like they don't and this one will pass as well. Oh well there's always 2021

[bunsen82]

 

1. Ryu at four years is a dumb idea.

2. We cannot begin 2020 with Berrios, Odo, and three rookies in the rotation. 

 

Is Ryu at 4 years really a dumb idea?   If we lose out on a year or two of injury yes, or his stuff isnt as good as it has been the last year.  I am really thinking Wes Johnson could be great for Ryu.  Making him pitch in a better "kinetic or ergonomical way"  limiting injuries, maintaining current velocity and possibly slightly increasing velocity.  All this while his current pitch velocity and current pitches really shouldn't be putting as much stress on the body for injuries as what he has historically had.  If Wes signs off, I think he could easily be a steal pitching well into his late years such as Rich Hill. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

1. Ryu at four years is a dumb idea.

2. We cannot begin 2020 with Berrios, Odo, and three rookies in the rotation. 

 

Now that Madbum, Wheeler and Cole are gone, I predict the Twins will follow their strategy of pursuing a bargain deal for a guy whose ceiling is a #3 starter, either through trade or FA.

 

This has not really worked out well in the past, (Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana) but that's what happens when you're unwilling to part with prospects and are unwilling to pay for a legitimate #1-2 starter. 

 

Got to disagree on 1... It may not be a contract that gets is value, but that will happen in 2022/23 timeframe when we hopefully have better in house options... For 2020 though, Ryu would make the rotation look really nice. 

 

As to your second point, you're right... 3 rookies in the rotation will not be good. As it is, I think we have 2 rookies in the rotation until Pineda comes back. We need a much more reliable option... so unless they're going to pony up the prospects, I say pay Ryu... 

[amjgt]

He’s a true ace. Most of his rate stats are better than Strasburg over the last couple years. You will never ever get an ace this cheap, except for the fact that Ryu has the injury risk/history that he has. The desire to avoid another year is equal parts understandable and idiotic. Pay the man, get your ace, and hope you get most of 3 good seasons out of him. Anything near or more than 3 years of health out of 4 makes this an absolute steal. 20M in dead weight isn’t going to kill you in a given season, especially if you can keep your cheap prospects.

[SwainZag]

 

Simple

 

EXACTLY. Simple, do they really want the guy or not? Sounds to me like they don't and this one will pass as well. Oh well there's always 2021

 

I don't think it's as simple as "do they want the guy or not."  I think they would love to have him in the rotation for 2020, that's the simple part.  Do they want to commit ~20M a year to a guy with his fragility for 4 years?