How high and long would you go for Ryu?

[howeda7]

 

that’s not how the company I work for works, and with player salaries something more than 40% of cost of goods sold, I can’t imagine any owner being ok with going over budget, just this once.

I would guess there are scenarios built in around acquiring levels of contracts, but at the end, the budget is the budget, and there is never ever carry over, year to year

Yes, but a normal company doesn't have the variability of an MLB franchise. Since moving to Target Field the Twins have had large swings up and down in payroll depending on where the team is in regards to contending. They're not going to spend on a rebuilding team just to hit a magical % of revenue threshhold and they're not going to tell Falvine they can't sign a pitcher they really need for a contending team because it will go 10% over their budget. It would be foolish to operate that way in this case.

[howeda7]

 

 

That's not how sports' franchises generally work......it is pretty much year to year.

 

edit: mostly ninja'd, so I shortened this reply.

Disagree. See above.

[Otwins]

As far as RYU goes the Twins just have to decide if that is who they really want.  Being logical is not going to land free agents. Does 9 years make sense for Cole? Yet it is just what the Yankees needed. If Ryu is our ace we are going to have to over pay either in years or $'s.  The Twins need an ace

[Jham]

Disagree. See above.

He meant that's not how the Twins franchise works. I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. Pretty much every baseball franchise plan's years in advance. Of course they have a yearly budget... AS PART OF A LONGER BUDGET!! Does anyone get how ridiculous it is to suggest that teams are planning years into the future, signing long contracts, hoarding prospects with 6 years of control, but not budgeting past a single season?

 

And here's the biggest thing. The other franchises ARE signing these long deals because they ARE budgeting into the future!

 

More importantly, higher AAV and lower years never ever ever works EVER! Unless the QO is extended. Which is why players hate the QO.

[Jham]

There are only so many roster spots. If you are giving a guy 30-30-30 or 22.5-22.5-22.5-22.5 in your scenario of 3/90 or 4/90, you are simply thinking in that 4th year you can get someone else to put up better production than a 1 year 22.5M deal. You are paying more in the short run because most of the time people say this about players who are A)on the wrong side of 30 or have had injury concerns. Pay more for production in fewer years and give yourself options in that 4th year instead of being tied down.

 

An extra year of control isn't always the best thing when you are talking about that size of money.

I'd be super mad if we didn't land him because we refused to pay an extra $10 mil for a 4th year. In 3 years, a 1 year $10 mil pitcher would be how good?

[SwainZag]

 

I'd be super mad if we didn't land him because we refused to pay an extra $10 mil for a 4th year. In 3 years, a 1 year $10 mil pitcher would be how good?

 

It's the same money for 3 years instead of 4.  No player is holding out for a 4th year with the same amount of money....

[goulik]

What about a vesting option for year 4 based on # of innings pitched in year 3 and possibly another vesting option for year 5 based on innings year 4. This can be your insurance against injuries. Add a buyout to up the guaranteed money. There are ways to add enticements. Make year 4 and 5 player options with the vesting. Get creative and get it done. We need another top end pitcher and at this point Odorizzi is only here 1 more year.

[Dman]

 

And here's the biggest thing. The other franchises ARE signing these long deals because they ARE budgeting into the future!

More importantly, higher AAV and lower years never ever ever works EVER! Unless the QO is extended. Which is why players hate the QO.

 

Sure teams are signing long term contracts and budgeting them into the future but they are also taking on risk by doing so.  The Yankess, Boston, Cubs and Dodgers all have had to sit out FA or in season moves because of the penalties of the cap.  How great was there budgeting when their teams were stuck financially?  The long contract is a play for today to hell with tomorrow mentality.  The more money you have the more risks you can afford to fail but even the top teams have limits.

 

We don't know what contracts Ryu has been offered maybe they are all 3 years deals.  Maybe some three year deals are equal too or more than the 4 year deals he is receiving.  We have no idea.  Lets say the Twins have to go 4\110 to get him.  That is nearly 30M a year for four years we have tied up.  Lets say he hurts his arms and can't pitch in years 3 and 4.  Now you have 30M less to spend the next two years when our core players are at their peak and headed to FA.  That would be a bad time to lose pitching production and be 30M short in the budget to make moves.

 

Yes the FO is looking at this year and beyond and what we know is there has never been a budget so far that has been over 130M per year.  And if you look at the team salaries in our division every team except Detroit has had about the same budget year in and year out fluctuating from around 90M to 130M.  Take 30M out of that budget for future years and you can see why it is a big deal to get production from that player for the full number of years.  You can hurt payroll flexibility in a hurry with one big bad deal.

 

Does that mean never take the risk?  Of coarse not but with an older player like Ryu you would want to do due diligence. You would want to try and do a three year deal if possible.

 

You are correct pretty much every player takes the most guaranteed money despite the AAV and if I was a pitcher at his age I would as well.  The Twins will have to decide if he is worth 4 years or not.

[Jham]

Sure teams are signing long term contracts and budgeting them into the future but they are also taking on risk by doing so. The Yankess, Boston, Cubs and Dodgers all have had to sit out FA or in season moves because of the penalties of the cap. How great was there budgeting when their teams were stuck financially? The long contract is a play for today to hell with tomorrow mentality. The more money you have the more risks you can afford to fail but even the top teams have limits.

 

We don't know what contracts Ryu has been offered maybe they are all 3 years deals. Maybe some three year deals are equal too or more than the 4 year deals he is receiving. We have no idea. Lets say the Twins have to go 4\110 to get him. That is nearly 30M a year for four years we have tied up. Lets say he hurts his arms and can't pitch in years 3 and 4. Now you have 30M less to spend the next two years when our core players are at their peak and headed to FA. That would be a bad time to lose pitching production and be 30M short in the budget to make moves.

 

Yes the FO is looking at this year and beyond and what we know is there has never been a budget so far that has been over 130M per year. And if you look at the team salaries in our division every team except Detroit has had about the same budget year in and year out fluctuating from around 90M to 130M. Take 30M out of that budget for future years and you can see why it is a big deal to get production from that player for the full number of years. You can hurt payroll flexibility in a hurry with one big bad deal.

 

Does that mean never take the risk? Of coarse not but with an older player like Ryu you would want to do due diligence. You would want to try and do a three year deal if possible.

 

You are correct pretty much every player takes the most guaranteed money despite the AAV and if I was a pitcher at his age I would as well. The Twins will have to decide if he is worth 4 years or not.

Good post. I mostly agree except that I think the long deals are stuck to preserve luxury tax flexibility. it makes it possible to strategically dip down for a year to reset the meter. your ability to stay under the cap is aided by the lower AAV. Obviously, at the end of the deal, problems can arise.

 

I agree on making an analysis and figuring out whether a premium price is workable. I was specifically referring to the notion that we can increase AAV to sign Ryu or any FA. It's not worth talking about because it doesn't work. And as AAV increases over a shorter deal, the cost of the extra year goes down. If we love Ryu for 3 years $80, but refuse to go 4/$90 and miss, I will be nonplussed. But it sounds like some would do 3/80 but wouldn't take a 4th year for free.

[Linus]

Ryu is a substantial injury risk which is exactly what you want to avoid in free agency. Go for Madbum. He isn’t great but has experience and is really durable. Other than that make a trade

[ewen21]

I really cannot answer for the mini-phenomenon of Hyun-Jin Ryu.  I do know he turns 33 coming in May so that concerns me when we talk about 4 and 5 years.  I seriously question where the motivation is to sign this guy to anything greater than two years given his time on the injury list, his unorthodox training regimen, and his weight.....

This isn't a guy who can anchor a rotation, let alone be relied upon to pitch much more than half a season.

 

No doubt, he has put up sterling numbers "when healthy"--and there's the rub.

Add health concerns with the fact that he is entering his mid-30s and I don't know where anyone can feel good about five years.

[ewen21]

The more I think about the more I am convinced the Twins need to aviod the free agent market and go the trade route.  Guys like Royce Lewis and Buxton need to be available in discussions.  I am sorry, for Buxton to truly be a meaningful player he has to be able to more than 87 games.  We had a chance to get Syndergaard last year and balked because of Buxton.  I thought that was a serious tactical error on our part.

 

The Twins need to learn how to allocate assets.  We have some depth in the outfield and outfielders are easy to pick up through free agency.  We need to get a stable of young arms under team control with some upside.

 

This constant refrain about us not ponying up for free agent pitching clouds the real issue; which is, this team cannot seem to raise good young pitching.  We have Berrios, but apart from that, what has this organization produced over the last 20 years?  We need to stop falling in love with prospects and imaging them as long-term fixtures with our club.  They are assets.  Nothing more, nothing less.  We obviously have a need and we absolutely have to made a trade or maybe two.  The idea that a trade involving Buxton or Lewis is "mortgaging the future" really is a dated mindset.

 

 

[biswrest]

It's crazy to think about but the twins have only developed two starting pitchers from their farm system over the last 10 years with Gibson and Berrios.  You have to think this is changing with the new wave of pitching prospects that seem to have high end stuff.

[Riverbrian]

I can't remember the thread it occurred in (The Wheeler Thread I believe). Not long ago, Ashbury posted perhaps the greatest post I have ever read on TD when he called free agency a "stupidity tax". 

 

That is the perfect succinct description of the process. Whatever your valuation of a player, you must pay the "stupidity tax" above that valuation to acquire that player.

 

The stupidity tax must be paid because you were stupid enough to not develop your own player and are now required to enter the market instead. The market price is determined by the stupidity tax that is set by all of the other teams that failed to develop their own player. 

 

In other words... you can't do this with a spreadsheet and hard lines. If you want the player, you must pay the price it takes to acquire him and that is determined by the stupidity tax you must pay to acquire the player you want. 

 

Of course, this also creates a vicious cycle. If you want Ryu and it takes an extra year or two of stupidity tax at 4 or 5 years to land him. You have to do it because the team NEEDS right now.

 

The money you spend will conflict and hamstring the money you can spend on extensions and future unpredictable stupidity tax needs to remain competitive beyond and by doing so, you also restrict the roster spots available to find cheaper talent and those players will keep you out of the stupidity tax cycle. 

 

Failing to develop will then force you back into paying the stupidity tax over and over again. The Twins and all the teams in our budget range can't afford to pay the stupidity tax over and over again without serious consequence. 

 

Bottom line... If Ryu is the guy they want, they must pay the tax, they have left themselves no choice because of past failures to develop. The team is ready to win now and have an acute NEED right now. They have no choice. Pay the money, or pay the prospects but they must add someone and they should add the guy they want. If it's Ryu... put the spreadsheets down and get him. 

 

However, it has an obvious future consequence but this isn't my fault. The front office caused this and it is there job to fix it. 

 

 

[cardsfan]

Ryu had 4 straight terrible games in August and early September and took extra days off between starts last year. 33 next year. This has to be worth $120 million for the Padres for 5 years.

 

He's far from durable.

[rdehring]

I'd give Scott a call and say, "hey, you looked great on CNBC Friday."  Would then tell him I really don't have any interest in Mr. Ryu.  Way too many injury concerns to give him anything long term, ie, longer than say two years.

 

The more I read about all these guys, I'll go into opening day with the best two of the four guys we saw late last season.  And if that means three of the four gotta pitch the first month plus until Big Mike is ready, so be it.  You see I honestly believe they will pitch as well, or better, than most of these guys we are now talking about.

 

And if that is the plan, I would sit down with Odorizzi at the end of spring training and give him a nice three year extension so we have some certainty going forward.

[Mike Sixel]

Why wo Odorrizi sign an extension? He just bet on himself.

[tony&rodney]

The attempt by the Dodgers to sign Cole and their seeming caution on Bumgarner and Ryu are interesting if not telling. Bumgarner is a stretch at four years and Ryu is a stretch at three. Likely, anything beyond carries too much risk. I would compare that to Cole at seven or eight years. Keep the lines open and be amenable to signing on useful 3 or 4 year terms. 

[DocBauer]

I can't remember the thread it occurred in (The Wheeler Thread I believe). Not long ago, Ashbury posted perhaps the greatest post I have ever read on TD when he called free agency a "stupidity tax". 

 

That is the perfect succinct description of the process. Whatever your valuation of a player, you must pay the "stupidity tax" above that valuation to acquire that player.

 

The stupidity tax must be paid because you were stupid enough to not develop your own player and are now acquired to enter the market instead. The market price is determined by the stupidity tax that is set by all of the other teams that failed to develop their own player. 

 

In other words... you can't do this with a spreadsheet and hard lines. If you want the player, you must pay the price it takes to acquire him and that is determined by the stupidity tax you must pay to acquire the player you want. 

 

Of course, this also creates a vicious cycle. If you want Ryu and it takes an extra year or two of stupidity tax at 4 or 5 years to land him. You have to do it because the team NEEDS right now.

 

The money you spend will conflict and hamstring the money you can spend on extensions and future unpredictable stupidity tax needs to remain competitive beyond and by doing so, you also restrict the roster spots available to find cheaper talent and those players will keep you out of the stupidity tax cycle. 

 

Failing to develop will then force you back into paying the stupidity tax over and over again. The Twins and all the teams in our budget range can't afford to pay the stupidity tax over and over again without serious consequence. 

 

Bottom line... If Ryu is the guy they want, they must pay the tax, they have left themselves no choice because of past failures to develop. The team is ready to win now and have an acute NEED right now. They have no choice. Pay the money, or pay the prospects but they must add someone and they should add the guy they want. If it's Ryu... put the spreadsheets down and get him. 

 

However, it has an obvious future consequence but this isn't my fault. The front office caused this and it is there job to fix it.

 

Great post! And I won't argue because as normal I agree as we usually seem to. But I want to play devil's advocate, not just for fun, but because I think it's a salient point that maybe deserves it's own thread.

 

Maybe the smart thing is to NOT play the FA game at this time. I can use various teams and examples, but will use the Royals and their fairly recent success as an example. Payroll wise, they went "all in " for a 2 year stretch. Now, I and the FO like the idea of sustainability contention, as would you and most I believe, but when Windows open, you are silly to close them. For arguement sake, they built their team on defense, speed, decent SP and a strong bullpen.

 

If we look hard at our current team, we see athleticism but not speed in the normal context. We see decent but not great defense, but some improvement potential from existing talent. We also see the potential for a really nice bullpen and I would argue an above average bullpen. Offensively, forget the live or dead ball arguement as it affects everyone, we have a very dangerous offense.

 

I'm honestly asking, are we better off just not playing this multi year and $80-100M game for a SP and taking a different approach?

 

1] Sign someone like Teheran and Wood, as examples, to fill out the rotation and let Johnson work with them. Shorter contracts and combined, less $ money than any of the remaining FA options. Let Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Graterol, etc, fill in for Pineda, provide depth, and EARN their time and promotion.

 

2] Continue to add to what is quickly becoming a strong and deep bullpen, bring back Romo or sign one of the other RHRP the Twins have been tied to. Talk to Moore and Smyly, veteran LH Nick brought up recently in a different OP, and convince them it is time to convert to being a RP to further interrupted and disappointing careers and still earn millions.

 

3] Replace the offense or potential offense of Cron with either a healthy Cron, or Shaw, or player X. While I DESPISE to give the Yankees credit for anything, one of the best moves they made last off season was signing LeMahieu and making him a primary 1B. Is there another player out there like him? SOMEONE needs to be signed so Marwin can keep being Marwin.

 

If the above happens, and the numbers make sense for an acceptable payroll, the rumors of a Donaldson signing could even take place, even though I'm not sure we have to go that route.

 

What do YOU think? Keep the prospects for NOW at least, add a couple 3-4 arms with potential, add one more decent bat, add those couple RP, and compete as an overall deep team without that that BIG contract.

[mikelink45]

I know you do not want to hear this, but who cares?  Nothing about this business makes any sense.  I want to win a world series.  They can pay him anything they want. 

[ewen21]

Pay the stupidity tax

 

Pretty counterintuitive (and counterproductive) rallying cry this offseason

And I don’t agree this team any more ready to win now than about half the league. Seems like last season was a ephemeral moment. Something “not sustainable”

 

That short postseason series didn’t show us this? Ryu and Bumgarner are 50/50 to make it through the 2020, let alone beyond

 

(Tax my stupidity if you must)

[Rosterman]

With prospects you are torn. How many pitchers have the Twins truly developed from their farm system, via draft. Especially good solid rotation arms.

 

You can trade. 

 

But I think the major discussion on arms is length of contract, Even now, as the Twins look at locking down Berrios who could become easily a $100 million dollar free agent at some point, how much money do you throw at the guy.

 

You don't need superstar contracts to win (see Oakland and Tampa Bay of late),

 

And, seems if you want, you can go after high-priced contracts in waning years with lesser risk (see Grienke, Verlander...look at possibilities of a David Price now).

 

What I keep hating is the Twins attitude of being competitive and maybe just "winning the division." That's fine, you do have to win the division. And with the trade dedline now a hard July 31, you have to stay on your toes to add correct post-season pieces a month earlier than ever before.

 

I still wasn't seeing the fron the office plan coming together until the end of this coming season in the first place as we see how they handle building with true prospects, handling the long-term committments to that talent (be it traded rom outside or drafted internally). 

 

But they still have to sell tickets, put butts in the seat, rally around some player branding to excite people, and put butts in the seats...wait, I already said that.

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Great post! And I won't argue because as normal I agree as we usually seem to. But I want to play devil's advocate, not just for fun, but because I think it's a salient point that maybe deserves it's own thread.

Maybe the smart thing is to NOT play the FA game at this time. I can use various teams and examples, but will use the Royals and their fairly recent success as an example. Payroll wise, they went "all in " for a 2 year stretch. Now, I and the FO like the idea of sustainability contention, as would you and most I believe, but when Windows open, you are silly to close them. For arguement sake, they built their team on defense, speed, decent SP and a strong bullpen.

If we look hard at our current team, we see athleticism but not speed in the normal context. We see decent but not great defense, but some improvement potential from existing talent. We also see the potential for a really nice bullpen and I would argue an above average bullpen. Offensively, forget the live or dead ball arguement as it affects everyone, we have a very dangerous offense.

I'm honestly asking, are we better off just not playing this multi year and $80-100M game for a SP and taking a different approach?

1] Sign someone like Teheran and Wood, as examples, to fill out the rotation and let Johnson work with them. Shorter contracts and combined, less $ money than any of the remaining FA options. Let Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Graterol, etc, fill in for Pineda, provide depth, and EARN their time and promotion.

2] Continue to add to what is quickly becoming a strong and deep bullpen, bring back Romo or sign one of the other RHRP the Twins have been tied to. Talk to Moore and Smyly, veteran LH Nick brought up recently in a different OP, and convince them it is time to convert to being a RP to further interrupted and disappointing careers and still earn millions.

3] Replace the offense or potential offense of Cron with either a healthy Cron, or Shaw, or player X. While I DESPISE to give the Yankees credit for anything, one of the best moves they made last off season was signing LeMahieu and making him a primary 1B. Is there another player out there like him? SOMEONE needs to be signed so Marwin can keep being Marwin.

If the above happens, and the numbers make sense for an acceptable payroll, the rumors of a Donaldson signing could even take place, even though I'm not sure we have to go that route.

What do YOU think? Keep the prospects for NOW at least, add a couple 3-4 arms with potential, add one more decent bat, add those couple RP, and compete as an overall deep team without that that BIG contract.

 

 

You are not wrong in your thinking, we don't have to acquire our pitching with FA's, we can trade or trip over them. We can also use the Tampa model and build the bullpen instead of staffing with starters 1 through 5.

 

However... If they get down to the Teheran, Wood level of addition for a traditional starting rotation. When you look at the payroll number afterwards and all of those prospects still accumulating down on the farm. It will be very hard to defend the front office after a 101 win season. 

 

Here is our current pitching if the season started today. They can't screw around here. They must get serious. 

 

SP1 SP 17 Jose Berrios R 25.6        
SP2 SP 12 Jake Odorizzi R 29.7           
SP3 SP 31 Devin Smeltzer L 24.3       
SP4 SP 68 Randy Dobnak R 24.9      
SP5 SP 43 Lewis Thorpe L 24.1        

 

CL RP 55 Taylor Rogers L 29.0   
SU8 RP 21 Tyler Duffey R 29.0 
SU7 RP 65 Trevor May R 30.2        
MID RP 61 Cody Stashak R 25.5           
MID RP 52 Zack Littell R 24.2 
MID RP 19 Ryne Harper R 30.7        
MID RP 77 Fernando Romero R             
LR RP  Matt Wisler R 27.3     

 

Restricted List

SP 35 Michael Pineda R 30.9 Suspended 60 games (9/7/19)

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

Pay the stupidity tax

Pretty counterintuitive (and counterproductive) rallying cry this offseason
And I don’t agree this team any more ready to win now than about half the league. Seems like last season was a ephemeral moment. Something “not sustainable”

That short postseason series didn’t show us this? Ryu and Bumgarner are 50/50 to make it through the 2020, let alone beyond

(Tax my stupidity if you must)

 

 

I don't know how to respond to someone who thinks that 101 wins is "Ephemeral" while 3 games in October is defining.

 

[ewen21]

 

I don't know how to respond to someone who thinks that 101 wins is "Ephemeral" while 3 games in October is defining.

Over the course of Twins history each season is a moment in time to me.  There is little significance in winning 101 games historically as compared to winning games in October.  Maybe I am strange, but those 101 wins mean nothing to me right now after a 3 and out in the first round.  Maybe you place more significance in the regular season than you do the postseason.  Sorry, but last year just isn't a big deal right now to me.

 

MOre important than my use of the word ephemeral what about your comment on how this team is ready to win?  How is a team that has lost the last 13 playoff games in a row "ready to win"?  I was hoping maybe you would explain that to me because I was applauding everything but the last two paragraphs you wrote 

 

[ewen21]

This thread is about Ryu.  I gave my concerns about age, health, and durability.  Does none of that matter and do you operate under the assumption that we give him five years and pay a "stupidity tax"

 

Let's leave the word "ephemeral" out of the discussion.  Last year means as much to me as the 2005 season as weird as that might sound.  To win 101 games and not even make so much as a peep in the postseason diminishes the regular season greatly for me.

 

That isn't the discussion, though,  It is supposed to be about Ryu and if getting him means we have to go 5/100 then I think that is off the charts nuts given what I wrote in paragraph one here.

[jorgenswest]

I join in concerns about Ryu but would offer 2/50. I wouldn’t go three years and likely lose out to a team going beyond 2 years.

[Riverbrian]

 

Over the course of Twins history each season is a moment in time to me.  There is little significance in winning 101 games historically as compared to winning games in October.  Maybe I am strange, but those 101 wins mean nothing to me right now after a 3 and out in the first round.  Maybe you place more significance in the regular season than you do the postseason.  Sorry, but last year just isn't a big deal right now to me.

 

MOre important than my use of the word ephemeral what about your comment on how this team is ready to win?  How is a team that has lost the last 13 playoff games in a row "ready to win"?  I was hoping maybe you would explain that to me because I was applauding everything but the last two paragraphs you wrote 

 

This is one of those debates that has no winner and no end to it.

 

There are people who believe that making the playoffs is the goal because once you make the playoffs, it comes down to the team playing well for a short stretch of time. This is where I am. 

 

On the other side, There are people who believe that only winning in the playoffs matter. 

 

I don't know how to respond to the other side because I don't understand the other side. 

 

You have to walk through the 162 game door to make the playoffs. If you don't walk through that door... you won't play in the playoffs. 162 games and the margin is so small that 89 wins is a good year, 81 is an average year and 73 is a terrible year. 

 

Now take that tiny tiny margin from 162 games where 8 wins defines good to average and average to terrible and apply it to the minuscule 12 wins it takes to pick up a title and you start to realize that the actual difference between the Yankees and the Twins is a much smaller smaller margin. As a matter of fact... I believe the Yankees won 1 game more than the Twins. 

 

If you can simply predict that the Twins are going to lose looking at a roster or a feeling... You should have been able to predict that the Nationals were going to win it. That the Cards were going to beat the Braves as well. 

 

The game isn't played on paper. You gotta hit, pitch, catch, run and throw each game, each inning and every team and every player has good days and bad days that fluctuate from game to game and inning to inning. The margins are so thin that those good and bad fluctuations from play to play determines who advances and 2019 has nothing to do with 2017. 

 

I don't know how to respond to anyone who can look at the Nationals and talk about Scherzer and Strasburg and also ignore that they were a wild card team, and they were one lucky inning from being one and done against the Brewers. One bad two out sequence from maybe the best reliever in baseball, one broken bat bloop hit and a crazy bounce in RF and the Nats are not having a parade. Maybe the Brewers are. 

 

Make the playoffs... anything can happen. Make the playoffs and play well for 20 games. Because anything happens... every year.  

 

3 games in October is the very definition of Ephremal... You got it backwards and I don't know how to respond to that. 

[ewen21]

If “anything can happen” why do we lose all the time? The “anything can happen” stuff seems not to apply.

 

Again, can we stick to Ryu here?

[Riverbrian]

 

This thread is about Ryu.  I gave my concerns about age, health, and durability.  Does none of that matter and do you operate under the assumption that we give him five years and pay a "stupidity tax"

 

Let's leave the word "ephemeral" out of the discussion.  Last year means as much to me as the 2005 season as weird as that might sound.  To win 101 games and not even make so much as a peep in the postseason diminishes the regular season greatly for me.

 

That isn't the discussion, though,  It is supposed to be about Ryu and if getting him means we have to go 5/100 then I think that is off the charts nuts given what I wrote in paragraph one here.

 

Your concerns about Ryu are legit in my eyes. I won't argue them. I can see what you are saying. 

 

But let me clarify my position. I'm saying that if the Twins want Ryu... If they want Bumgarner... If they want Wheeler... if they want Keuchel.

 

They must pay the price to get that player... they can't sit with hard lines on a spreadsheet and say I'll pay 75 million but I won't pay 80 million or I'll do 3 years but I won't do 4.

 

Ryu will sign elsewhere because the other team will pay that stupidity tax over their valuation to get the player. Then the Twins will have to move down the rung from Plan E to Plan F and repeat the process until they are signing a player that isn't much of an improvement over Smeltzer. 

 

If THEY want Ryu... they must pay for him. 

 

As for what do I want? I want them to sign the players that they want to sign. They got the data. I don't.