Front Page: Official Twins Winter Meetings Day 2 Thread

[bird]

 

I don't know if it is negativity as much as disappointment.  Like expecting or hoping to get an Iphone for Christmas for the last ten years and getting a flip phone every year instead.  The flip phone gets the job done but isn't elite like the I-phone.

 

 

I am not saying the FO is wrong not to take on some of these deals but I really thought given how the market worked out the last few years that we had a really good chance at a decent deal with one of the tier two starters.  Given the years and dollars or both plus teams with an inside track to resign those players things look grim for upgrading the rotation IMO. 

 

 

While our pitching might be good enough to win the division or manage a wild card berth it doesn't look capable of handling teams in the playoffs.  The window is open and we are close it would have been nice to find a pitcher to give us a chance to get over the hump.

 

 

What's an iphone?

 

Personally, I'll be critical of Falvey if he fails to deliver one more starter that is a consensus frontline guy. I'm already slightly critical of him for putting himself in a position this off-season of perhaps having to drastically overpay in prospects to get that done. I wanted him to procure one more starter LAST off-season. But I won't criticize him for being outbid for any of these second tier FA's, as I trust that he has a clearing price in mind for each and every one of them, and I agree with that approach.

 

That said, I watched an extremely fun 101-win team last year that is basically entirely in place. That was an awesome accomplishment, and I give Falvey a lot of credit for that.

 

Still holding out hope for Ryu, and then one of those make-good guys like Wood, Teheran, Gausman...

 

[Vanimal46]

Can I see a pic and possibly get her number?

And ruin your financial flexibility? Dream on, bird. You gotta save that scrap for future arbitration costs that you may or may not want to pay!

[MN_ExPat]

 

The left side of the Twins infield.

 

If I'm paying good money, I want starting pitchers who can get outs all on their own.

 

Which is why I'm starting to lean toward signing Rich Hill.

 

Please everybody, don't kill me, I have a family!

Concerns about the defense are perfectly understandable, but come on Nick, you know full well that the pitcher does not exist on an island .   Nothing but popups, Ks, and weak come backers to the pitcher are boring and fascist.

[spanman2]

 

My girlfriend will be happy to know that despite the fact I didn't get her anything for Christmas I actually made several unsuccessful Ebay bids for really nice gifts she would have loved!

IALTO

[spanman2]

 

Please just sign Cole, whatever it takes.  It takes an ace to win a World Series these days and good pitching seems to always beat good hitting in the playoffs.  Have not seen a pitcher I would want to get from a bad club at this time.  And bad clubs are always looking for mistakes or overpays for their better talent.  

Zero chance we sign Cole.  

[spanman2]

 

It's pretty simple really....If you want to play in Free Agency, you HAVE to wrap your head around the fact that you are going to be locking yourself into a "dumb" contract more than likely. Not sure if Falvine are there or ever will be.

 

That's just the way it is. You're going to have to overpay 9 times out of 10. Not a lot of "good" deals to be had in free agency with the upper echelon names.

 

Seems like this front office is obsessed with getting "good" deals and ensuring we have financial flexibility as opposed to just going for it, even if it means years 3, 4, and 5 of a five year deal may be rough. This is not a bad approach if you're not a contending team. 

 

We're constantly told to value short term deals and the financial flexibility it affords. I'm not really sure what the financial flexibility is good for if you never actually use the "flexibility".

 

It's pretty simple really....If you want to play in Free Agency, you HAVE to wrap your head around the fact that you are going to be locking yourself into a "dumb" contract more than likely. Not sure if Falvine are there or ever will be.

 

That's just the way it is. You're going to have to overpay 9 times out of 10. Not a lot of "good" deals to be had in free agency with the upper echelon names.

 

Seems like this front office is obsessed with getting "good" deals and ensuring we have financial flexibility as opposed to just going for it, even if it means years 3, 4, and 5 of a five year deal may be rough. This is not a bad approach if you're not a contending team. 

 

We're constantly told to value short term deals and the financial flexibility it affords. I'm not really sure what the financial flexibility is good for if you never actually use the "flexibility".

 

Agreed on having to overpay...not sure on the 9 out of 10 times but overall I do agree.  The Nats know full good and well it is possible in years 6&7 they are not going to get the pitcher they are paying for in 2020.  They are paying for hopeful continued dominance for the next 4-5 years.  I wouldn't be surprised if a larger portion of the funds on the back end of the contract are deferred payments such as an annuity...think Bobby Bonilla...you can get creative on how you fulfill the payment obligations of the contract.

[nicksaviking]

 

Concerns about the defense are perfectly understandable, but come on Nick, you know full well that the pitcher does not exist on an island .   Nothing but popups, Ks, and weak come backers to the pitcher are boring and fascist.

 

I'll take Mussolini on the mound over the namby-pamby high contact guy Crash was describing.

[DutchFarmer]

Being “in” on a player does nothing for me. Maybe other fans think it’s neat to read reports that the Twins spoke to Zack Wheeler. I’m not that fan.

A perfect way to eliminate this perception that the Twins never sign big time free agents is to actually sign one! Just one is a really, really good start.

The regime is different, but the tactics remain the same for free agency. Will I also get a bunch of positive press for continuing to go to a car dealership and offer $10,000 below MSRP to the salesman?

 

Completely agree.... though I must admit I'm very much looking forward to seeing the shiny new participation trophy sitting next to the 87 and 91 world championship trophies during my next visit to Target Field.

[terrydactyls]

Being “in” on a player does nothing for me. Maybe other fans think it’s neat to read reports that the Twins spoke to Zack Wheeler. I’m not that fan.

A perfect way to eliminate this perception that the Twins never sign big time free agents is to actually sign one! Just one is a really, really good start.

The regime is different, but the tactics remain the same for free agency. Will I also get a bunch of positive press for continuing to go to a car dealership and offer $10,000 below MSRP to the salesman?

 

White Sox reportedly offered Wheeler more than the Phillies but to no avail. When the money is this high, it becomes secondary to picking a team you want to play with.

[chpettit19]

My question is if people understand that free agency isn't like a store. The Twins can't just walk in and say "Oh, Wheeler costs $118 mil over 5 years, we'll take him!" and then he's theirs. As a number of people have pointed out on this thread and others, the White Sox offered a better deal than that and he turned them down. The FO isn't just shopping for objects that fit into their plan, they're trying to convince human beings that they should come play here for the same amount of money they would go somewhere else to play. Could they have thrown 5 years 130 at Wheeler and maybe convinced his wife that extra 12 mil was worth not living where she wanted to? Maybe, maybe not. 

 

A lot of it is also just people's views on what a World Series is worth. I would hate being a Marlins fan. I have hated the last decade of unwatchable baseball out of the Twins. Overspending (which is not a good thing in any situation, thus the "over" part of the word) to get a pitcher because we think it gets us closer to the WS this year, but ruins our chances of sustaining success is not something I'm interested in. The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Astros all won the same number of World Series this year as the Twins did and they all spent a ton on big name guys. Give me competitive baseball every year over 1 World Series followed by 10 years of garbage. 

 

It sure was cool overspending on our hometown hero to show that the FO was serious about winning. I mean all those rings Mauer brought home weighing his hands down must have been why he struggled to hit for power.

 

I think this FO is doing a great job. Not perfect, but definitely hard to complain. They have a budget whether you like it or not. They don't set the budget, they just work within it. They have offered $100+mil contracts. They tried to go get Kimbrel and he was pretty clear he didn't want to play here. Should they have thrown an extra 50 mil at him to convince him to come here so fans believe they're actually trying? I mean his absolutely horrid season wouldn't matter as long as we paid somebody a ton of money, right?

 

So like Mackey said, do you really think they have their PR department set up to just send out fake info of offers they didn't really make in order to look like they're trying or are you refusing to accept that free agency isn't just offering the same contract the "winning" team did and the guy would have been yours instead?

 

If missing out on MadBum, Ryu, Keuchel, et al means we're able to extend Buxton, Sano, and Berrios are you happy or sad? If signing one of them means we can't extend one or more of them are you happy or sad? There's give and take. A 5 year MadBum deal makes it real hard to extend all 3 of those guys and maintain the deep team you need to be successful in a 162 game season.

[KirbyDome89]

 

Such a great point... 

 

What exactly were the two "morons," Mackey quoted wrong about? When have the Twins shown willingness or proficiency in spending top dollar to acquire elite talent? What moves has the new FO executed that signals a change from this organizations aversion to spending?

 

Remain optimistic if you want, I'm still clinging to hope they acquire at least one starter at or above the talent level of Berrios, but pessimism is warranted. The irony of Mackey calling fans morons, while ignoring decades of revenue going unspent and propping up low FA bids as evidence of change is just too sweet..... 

[Major League Ready]

 

Agreed on having to overpay...not sure on the 9 out of 10 times but overall I do agree.  The Nats know full good and well it is possible in years 6&7 they are not going to get the pitcher they are paying for in 2020.  They are paying for hopeful continued dominance for the next 4-5 years.  I wouldn't be surprised if a larger portion of the funds on the back end of the contract are deferred payments such as an annuity...think Bobby Bonilla...you can get creative on how you fulfill the payment obligations of the contract.

 

The same question was brought up last year. I wondered about the relative merit of building a winning team with these contracts and how often they were a burden that actually ended up negatively impacting the team. I ran the numbers for free agents signing 5+ year deals from 2012-2014. These are the most recent years in which 5 year deals would have run to completion when I did this last year. Here is what I found.

 

Cano and Grienke stood out by a considerable margin. Of course, Cano’s deal is looking like the last 5 years will be around replacement level. The remaining 10 players only averaged 1.41 WAR.  In 53 cumulative seasons, the entire group only managed 3 season above 4 WAR, two by Cano and one by Fielder. The group produced 17 seasons above 2 WAR while producing 36 season at 2 WAR or less.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The same question was brought up last year. I wondered about the relative merit of building a winning team with these contracts and how often they were a burden that actually ended up negatively impacting the team. I ran the numbers for free agents signing 5+ year deals from 2012-2014. These are the most recent years in which 5 year deals would have run to completion when I did this last year. Here is what I found.

 

Cano and Grienke stood out by a considerable margin. Of course, Cano’s deal is looking like the last 5 years will be around replacement level. The remaining 10 players only averaged 1.41 WAR.  In 53 cumulative seasons, the entire group only managed 3 season above 4 WAR, two by Cano and one by Fielder. The group produced 17 seasons above 2 WAR while producing 36 season at 2 WAR or less.

Max Scherzer signed a 7/210 contract in January 2015, just a bit outside the date range you chose.

[goulik]

In the "how high would you go for Cole" thread we have been giving our max bids for the top 4, now top 3 guys and until someone says they would go higher than what someone gets, I'm not going to be blasting the front office for not closing on the deal. No-one in that thread was willing to offer what Strasburg got and I have doubts that anyone would offer the number that Cole ends up at. It's easy to criticize afterwards when we didn't put our thoughts out there ahead of time.

Are they being cheap or smart? The line is a lot more difficult to define under Falvine than under Ryan & Co. so while I am still waiting for that big free agent signing, I am also a lot more trusting with this FO.

[tvagle]

Good Bye to your Wes can fix Kevin Gausman Dreams if you can believe Bob Nightengale

 

[tvagle]

Maybe too much for a Gausman Project?

 

I'd pass at $9M but with the money being spent on pitching maybe this is a steal

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Are Falvey and Lavine at the winter meetings?

[prouster]

Maybe too much for a Gausman Project?

 

I'd pass at $9M but with the money being spent on pitching maybe this is a steal

 

https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1204533083799580672

I thought Gausman could be a good addition to the bullpen, but I don’t know if he would be the best person to spend that much money on. Oh well.

[Major League Ready]

 

Max Scherzer signed a 7/210 contract in January 2015, just a bit outside the date range you chose.

 

Yes Scherzer has been great. None of the very top FA SPs have been a bust. The next tier (like Wheeler / Bumgarner) have been pretty brutal. I went through all of the years. I kept it to these years in the previous post because these contracts were completed when I did this last year. 2016 was a big year for contracts with substantial length. Greinke actually opted out and signed another 6 year deal in 2016. As noted he has been good.

 

David Price signed for 7/217/AAV of #31M – He has been decent but not a difference maker. Quite good the 1st year (4.5 WAR). He has averaged 2.1 WAR over the past 3 years so he certainly has not been a difference maker and I am glad we don’t have him for the next 3 years at $96M

 

There were 6 other contracts of 5 or more years. Chris Davis / Jason Heyward / Johnny Cueto / Justin Upton / Jordan Zimmerman, and Jeff Samardzija.  Davis is below replacement level. Heyward has been slightly above replacement value. Johnny Cueto had a great first year and has produced basically nothing since. Zimmerman produced 4.4 WAR over 4 years. Samardzjia was average in 2016, good in 2017 with 3.8 War and had .2 WAR in 2018 and 1.5 WAR in 2019. They received $924M collectively and produced a total of 32.4 WAR for 24 seasons collectively for an average of 1.35 WAR. Of course there is at least 1 year left on all of these contracts.

[howeda7]

 

After seeing the Strasburg, Wheeler and Gibson contacts and Bumgarner's demands that were leaked yesterday I feel like the best course of action would be to pursue a trade with the fallback of not more than a 2 year contract for Keuchel if he'd agree to it. Bumgarner and Ryu are not worth overpaying for in AAV or Years so better to patch the rotation together with veteran mid rotation starters year to year until the prospects are ready or a better opportunity to sign or trade for an ace presents itself. 

 

Berrios, Odorizzi, Keuchel, Pineda and Dobnak would still be a very solid rotation. 

What were Baumgarner's demands? I still think there is a decent gap between him and Kuechel.

[howeda7]

 

Are Falvey and Lavine at the winter meetings?

Doogie heard they called the hotel to book a room but they couldn't work it out, despite a generous offer.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Yes Scherzer has been great. None of the very top FA SPs have been a bust. The next tier (like Wheeler / Bumgarner) have been pretty brutal. I went through all of the years. I kept it to these years in the previous post because these contracts were completed when I did this last year. 2016 was a big year for contracts with substantial length. Greinke actually opted out and signed another 6 year deal in 2016. As noted he has been good.

 

David Price signed for 7/217/AAV of #31M – He has been decent but not a difference maker. Quite good the 1st year (4.5 WAR). He has averaged 2.1 WAR over the past 3 years so he certainly has not been a difference maker and I am glad we don’t have him for the next 3 years at $96M

 

There were 6 other contracts of 5 or more years. Chris Davis / Jason Heyward / Johnny Cueto / Justin Upton / Jordan Zimmerman, and Jeff Samardzija. Davis is below replacement level. Heyward has been slightly above replacement value. Johnny Cueto had a great first year and has produced basically nothing since. Zimmerman produced 4.4 WAR over 4 years. Samardzjia was average in 2016, good in 2017 with 3.8 War and had .2 WAR in 2018 and 1.5 WAR in 2019. They received $924M collectively and produced a total of 32.4 WAR for 24 seasons collectively for an average of 1.35 WAR. Of course there is at least 1 year left on all of these contracts.

You say the next tier has been brutal, but you were in favor of signing Wheeler. As was I. I presume because you think he can pitch. As do I. So, how do you decide that Wheeler is well worth 5/105, but is not worth 5/125 or 5/135? You gain a great starter, and what does that extra payroll really cost you? How badly does this organization want a deep postseason run?

[Danchat]

For those interested in Darren Wolfson's updates:

 

 

He was also on Skor North today, and to summarize what he said , 1) it seems like Bumgarner has no interest in playing in Minnesota and the Twins are unlikely to pay him over $20M a year (he speculated the Twins would need to offer at least a 6 year deal to get him), and 2) he believes Ryu is open to playing for a non-coastal team and the Twins have a lot of interest in him.

 

 

Personally, I'm hoping they come out with one of Bumgarner, Ryu, or Kuechel, and if not, they need to get one of the top-tier trade targets. 

[prouster]

For those interested in Darren Wolfson's updates:

 

https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/1204408494604115969

 

He was also on Skor North today, and to summarize what he said , 1) it seems like Bumgarner has no interest in playing in Minnesota and the Twins are unlikely to pay him over $20M a year (he speculated the Twins would need to offer at least a 6 year deal to get him), and 2) he believes Ryu is open to playing for a non-coastal team and the Twins have a lot of interest in him.

 

 

Personally, I'm hoping they come out with one of Bumgarner, Ryu, or Kuechel, and if not, they need to get one of the top-tier trade targets.

Ugh. No thanks if those are Bumgarner’s terms. Ryu seems increasingly like their best option. Hopefully they can get it done.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The same question was brought up last year. I wondered about the relative merit of building a winning team with these contracts and how often they were a burden that actually ended up negatively impacting the team. I ran the numbers for free agents signing 5+ year deals from 2012-2014. These are the most recent years in which 5 year deals would have run to completion when I did this last year. Here is what I found.

 

Cano and Grienke stood out by a considerable margin. Of course, Cano’s deal is looking like the last 5 years will be around replacement level. The remaining 10 players only averaged 1.41 WAR.  In 53 cumulative seasons, the entire group only managed 3 season above 4 WAR, two by Cano and one by Fielder. The group produced 17 seasons above 2 WAR while producing 36 season at 2 WAR or less.

If there are only 53 seasons, of players on 5+ year contracts, then your sample is what, 10 players or less? Over 3 offseasons? I'm not sure that's too meaningful. (Edit: and you're excluding Greinke from those numbers too? Why?)

 

Just nudging your sample one year earlier, I see at least 10 such seasons. Moving it one year later, I see 6 and counting. (And even in your sample, I might count Darvish and his posting fee plus 6 year contract, which would add a few more to your total.)

 

And why the firm 4 WAR cutoff? Jon Lester's all-star season of 2018 counts for nothing using this criteria. Odorizzi's 2019 wouldn't have counted either -- he wasn't on a long-term contract, obviously, but it's an example of an obviously good season that should count if you're judging a contract. Cruz's 2019 would likewise barely qualify -- another 10 games on the DL and he doesn't make it. (And Cruz's great 2015-2018 in Seattle is ignored because it was only a 4 year FA contract.)

 

Speaking personally, I don't want the Twins to sign just *any* long FA deal. I could have told you the Pujols contract would have been a bad idea for us on the day it was signed; same for a few others (Sandoval!). But there are some good ones, and the job of the Twins front office should be to identify and sign those guys -- and be judged on their ability to do so -- not to simply sit out this market completely. And if that's only the best 4 years deal, so be it, but we haven't seen that yet either.

[mikelink45]

I am sorry, but I do not know who Phil Mackey is so his opinion does not mean any more than the other posters on this site.  I have no opinion - Keuchel vs Ryu vs Bumgartner - just sign one!  

 

If it is Rooker or Raley I am not sure I am as pleased as the FO.  I would prefer Kiriloff or Larnach for their upside. 

[adorduan]

 

Such a great point... 

 

So the bar is Dallas Keuchel?  Wow.....

[nicksaviking]

For those interested in Darren Wolfson's updates:

 

https://twitter.com/DWolfsonKSTP/status/1204408494604115969

 

He was also on Skor North today, and to summarize what he said , 1) it seems like Bumgarner has no interest in playing in Minnesota and the Twins are unlikely to pay him over $20M a year (he speculated the Twins would need to offer at least a 6 year deal to get him), and 2) he believes Ryu is open to playing for a non-coastal team and the Twins have a lot of interest in him.

 

 

Personally, I'm hoping they come out with one of Bumgarner, Ryu, or Kuechel, and if not, they need to get one of the top-tier trade targets.

 

If Bumgarner has to have his arm twisted to come here, pass. I was already on the fence about him, I’d prefer not to repeat the Ricky Nolasco, “I’d rather be elsewhere” fiasco.

 

Ryu or bust for me. Also Rich Hill.

[DutchFarmer]

Doogie heard they called the hotel to book a room but they couldn't work it out, despite a generous offer.

Best post in this thread.

[mikelink45]

Thanks to Sconnie I now know who Phil is and now that I know I can only ask, who cares what he thinks?