Heyman: Twins Pursuing Hyun-Jin Ryu

[Nick Nelson]

As the Winter Meetings get underway in San Diego, we've got a juicy tidbit courtesy of the always-plugged-in Jon Heyman, who says the Twins are "in on Hyun-Jin Ryu":

 

 

It seems the focus of fans has collectively centered on Bumgarner since Wheeler signed (TD had great explorations of MB's pros and cons) but there's been relatively little steam on Ryu, who led the majors in ERA this year and was the National League's Cy Young runner-up. He might fit better with what the Twins are seeking – shorter-term, higher AAV deals – than Bumgarner, who is said to be seeking 5 years. 

 

In the Offseason Handbook we projected a 3-year, $54 million contract for Ryu, but that feels quite low based on how the market has taken shape early. Would something like 3 years, $75 million sway Ryu from his apparent preference to stay on the West Coast? 

 

What's your interest level in Ryu? How high would you bid to bring him in?

[sweetmusicviola16]

Ryu would work for me. I was thinking more like 3/66. 

[HawksNest]

Ryu is very, very, good and would look great slotting in at the top of the Twins rotation.  I'd love to have him.

 

With that said, his injury history scares the *bleep* out of me.  He's arguably the most injury prone starting pitcher in baseball.

 

He missed all of 2015 and 2016 and has spent significant and extended time on the IL every season.

 

Sadly, it may be hard to count on him making even 30 starts (he's only made 30 starts once in 7 seasons).

 

That said, when healthy, he's proven to be a stud and I'd love to have him!

[darin617]

Thought it sounded like he wanted to stay on the west coast. That could be his leverage to try to get more out of teams like MN.

[Seth Stohs]

We had heard that the Twins were definitely in on Ryu and probably preferred him to Bumgarner. For me, I just assumed he'd want to stay on the west coast... at least more than Bumgarner who had been mentioned in other eastern teams too. 

[mikelink45]

wake me up when he signs

 

[howeda7]

Factoring in durability, I'd still rather have MadBaum. 

[Seansy]

Definitely prefer Ryu over Madbum. As Tom showed Madbum is more name than anything else right now.

 

I would start at 3/66 but willing to go up to 3/75 to make sure they land him.

[Wax off]

I'd be OK with 3/75. He's probably the best we can get and we need get one of the best.

 

Place him between Berrios and Odorizzi in the rotation.

 

Cole's out of reach, Strasburg too, I suppose. Ryu is quite better than Bumgarner, most recently. We NEED to land this guy.

[diehardtwinsfan]

stats wise, Ryu is the right answer between the two, and it's not close.

 

Health wise, Ryu is the wrong answer. 

 

I guess the question I have is part of our starters surprising ability to stay healthy something that the FO has introduced or if we just got lucky... If it's the former, I'd say go get Ryu over MadBumb... the latter... well... why is it we assume we cannot get Cole/Strassburg again?  

[twinkiesfan11]

Wouldn't complain about a Ryu signing as it would be a clear upgrade but would favor Bumgarner over Ryu due to durability concerns. Honestly not excited about the prospect of signing either one of them but again, wouldn't complain. At this point if they can't get into the Cole or Strasburg tiers I'd prefer to see them explore trade opportunities. 

[nicksaviking]

IL stints for a starting pitcher don't bother me too much if you have enough starting pitching depth. 

 

I'm not sure the Twins have that at the moment, though I'm guessing by June lots of fans will be looking for any excuse to find starts for Graterol and/or Duran. Anyway, if it's only a three year deal it seems like a reasonable gamble.

 

Ryu did get extended a qualifying offer last year and he did accept it. If could have been a situation where he gambled on himself and is eager to test free agency, but as others have noted, he may just be willing to sacrifice the security of a longer term deal to stay in an area he prefers. I'd guess if his preference is LA and he's willing to pull a repeat of last year, both the Angels and Dodgers would have no problem extending a 1 year deal to his liking.

[MMMordabito]

Hearing the Twins are in doesn't do much for me, as I'd assume they should be somewhat in on any starter that projects to earn positive WAR in 2020.  I'd consider Ryu a good target though. 

 

However, if the Twins do sign Ryu, they need to be looking at having a couple experienced options competing with Smeltzer, Thorpe, Dobnak and Graterol for the 5th and 6th spots.  Ryu likely won't make 30 starts.  We already know Pineda won't make 30 starts. 

 

More darts please.  

 

 

[Mike Frasier Law]

I feel like the combo signing of MadBum and Ryu would be ideal. Have one not-so-exciting workhorse and have another potential ace who won't be dependable to be on the field. If Ryu is ready to start the season but gets hurt early, he'll effectively be replaced by Big Mike in May. In the meantime, we'd have Odo, MadBum, Berrios every 5 starts, mixing in one of our exciting rookies when we can.

 

 

[SmellEm]

If you can afford to give $25 million a year to guy who has averaged around 100 innings per year over the last four seasons, you can afford to give $35 million to Cole or Strasburg.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you can afford to give $25 million a year to guy who has averaged around 100 innings per year over the last four seasons, you can afford to give $35 million to Cole or Strasburg.  

The issue isn't so much the annual salary -- it's the number of years. Cole should get twice as many guaranteed years as Ryu and Bumgarner; Strasburg, 50% more.

[gunnarthor]

I'd be very surprised if the Twins actually sign him but he's a fair gamble. Obviously, his injury history is a concern and going from Dodger stadium to the AL is a bit scary as well. But he'd arguably be our best pitcher (when healthy) and makes our starting rotation a lot better.

[scottz]

Strasburg - 4 years, $156 million. Would that be enough? Or will somebody do $39MM/year for 5 or 6 years?

[IndianaTwin]

How about 3/$54MM, with an extra $2MM at 27 starts and another $2MM at 30 starts each season? 

 

And given future needs, I'd also be open to frontloading the $54MM so that it is $20MM/$18MM/$16MM. It helps the player and it gives the team more flexibility down the road, both in terms of payroll maneuverability and as trade bait. 

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

How about 3/$54MM, with an extra $2MM at 27 starts and another $2MM at 30 starts each season? 

 

And given future needs, I'd also be open to frontloading the $54MM so that it is $20MM/$18MM/$16MM. It helps the player and it gives the team more flexibility down the road, both in terms of payroll maneuverability and as trade bait.

 

Those types of contract are not allowed, since teams could easily circumvent them.

[nicksaviking]

 

Strasburg - 4 years, $156 million. Would that be enough? Or will somebody do $39MM/year for 5 or 6 years?

 

I'd like Strasburg, but since we've heard a plenty of rumors about Wheeler, Cole, Bumgarner and now Ryu, yet we haven't heard squat about Strasburg kind of makes me think him going back to Washington is all but a lock, but his side is waiting for Cole to sign so he can get his fair payday.

[South Dakota Tom]

If it comes down to Ryu on a 3-year AAV near $20M with no compensation attached versus MadBum wanting 5 years at AAV $20M with a lost draft pick, I choose Ryu on the shorter deal.  The length of this contract is more important than the dollars for me.  Same reason why both Cole and Strasburg are not realistic targets.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How about 3/$54MM, with an extra $2MM at 27 starts and another $2MM at 30 starts each season? 

I'd guess that a bunch of teams could easily give him that same offer, and I don't think the Twins would win out.

 

MLBTR predicted 3/54 but listed 13 teams of interest...

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Those types of contract are not allowed, since teams could easily circumvent them.

Games started incentives are allowed:

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/incentive-clause

[USAFChief]

 

Games started incentives are allowed:

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/incentive-clause

In general, playing time incentives are ok, playing quality incentives are not.

[Mike Sixel]

My bad. I literally thought it was the opposite. So teams can mess with incentives, but players can't be rewarded for good play? Odd rules.

[howeda7]

 

Games started incentives are allowed:

 

http://m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/incentive-clause

I can't recall many games started incentives. Usually innings or games finished. That said, I doubt he would agree to such a deal.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I can't recall many games started incentives. Usually innings or games finished. That said, I doubt he would agree to such a deal.

 

Agreed.

[Major League Ready]

 

Those types of contract are not allowed, since teams could easily circumvent them.

 

There are incentives that are permitted. Didn't they have some sort of vesting option with Ervin Sanatana?

[nicksaviking]

 

My bad. I literally thought it was the opposite. So teams can mess with incentives, but players can't be rewarded for good play? Odd rules.

 

It seems to me that performance incentives were something the Players Union opposed. I could be wrong, but I remember that discussion from quite some time ago.

 

But that recollection would have been from the time when players got paid based more on what they had done in the past as opposed to what they were projected to do in the future. So yeah, I could see 36-year-old Greg Maddox and Bernie Williams wanting to keep the pay scales status quo.