Front Page: Free Agent Faceoff: Madison Bumgarner Is Not Who You Think He Is Edition

[Rosterman]

The thing is someone will pay for Bumgarner. Do you think he has enough upside to go multiple years (like 4 or 5). 

 

It's all a gamble. But if you don't grab him,does someone in your division or league grab him and have the upside. The downside is that he bombs. Hopefully he doesn't in year one or two, which means he is still tradable and that "second place bidder" could still be someone to take his conract off your hands, plus give you something for the future.

 

Yes, you are out a prospect and also money.

 

Right now the Twins are banking on Odorizzi and Pineda being better than they were in 2019, or at least the same (we lose Pineda on the front end rather than the back end this year). Berrios should be better, and the Twins need to sign him up longer term.

 

SO, how can you prove on Gibson and Perez? Getting two experienced arms can go a long way in this scenario,as youcan use the "Pineda-time" to look at Dobnak, Smeltzer, Thorpe and, perhaps, Graterol, as starters for the future, someoneto replace Odorizzi in 2020. None of thise names NEEDS to pitch fulltime in the majors in 2020, but will have opportunities, hopefully, to face major league batters at some point and still work on their stuff to dominate at AAA.

[Trov]

For Mad Bum there are two big questions the front office will need to answer.  First, is he the type of pitcher that will adjust late in career to drop in velocity? As all pitchers lose velocity as they age, and some make adjustments and pitch very late into 30's even early 40's, others barely make mid 30's.  If you think he can adjust and "reinvent" himself as he ages, picking up new off speed knowing how to hit all zones and not just try to over power then he will be fine.  If he is one that relies on velocity and will not adjust then stay away.

 

The second question, is what kind of veteran club house guy is he?  Many had credited Cruz with more than just being a good hitter, but a good club house guy that helped Sano and other hitters and is overall good guy to have on team.  Part of spending on plus 30 players is can they help young guys and will they be good for club house.  In my opinion, baseball is the by far the most important sport to look at team chemistry.  You spend every day, except for all-star break and a couple of scattered off days, with mostly the same 25 teammates, plus coaches and club house guys, for nearly 9 months.  It is hard to be with people that much you do not get along with.

 

If the Twins front office believe the answer to both questions is yes, give him 4 or 5 years at 20 to 25 mil.  I trust Falvene and their "nerds" to know a ton about all these pitchers and will make a good choice.  Unlike old guard, this group looks at everything and does not care what fan's opinions are, because wins is what matters and if you are winning tickets will be sold.    

[nclahammer]

Grrrreat stuff.  Really racks for brain and provides clarity for some of the stats.   MLB and its fans in recent years seem to be over-hyping and emphasizing post-season accolades (Holladay & Schilling), much the way the NFL does when determining the overall greatness of a player, rather than the accumulated career statistics.

[ewen21]

 

Only looking at 2019 is disingenuous. Last year was the first full year for Bum since 2016. He is 30. A 5 year $100 Million might do it, and if he returns to form it is a steal. Buy low if he's healthy. Teheran is consistent. I'd consider a nice 3-4 year deal for him too. He isn't a front of the rotation guy, but will help get to the playoffs.

IF he returns to form is wishful thinking with all those innings on that arm.  If anything the last two seasons was an uptick over what is more likely to happen with him over the life of a five year deal.  He has a splashy name, and sadly, a lot of Twins fans seem to want to make that fA splash.  Whether it makes sense or not some folks appear to be of the midset that this team had better spend money and nothing else would appease them.

 

It really is a drag, in my opinion.

[TopGunn#22]

This is an interesting article that really puts into perspective that someone like Mad-Bum could be mediocre at a very rich price.  Honestly, the only SURE THING on the market is Gerritt Cole.  The Twins have very little chance of signing him.  But heck, 7 years $245 million would put them in the conversation.  Again, he's the only sure thing.  Everyone else is an exercise in speculation.  Sure the Dodgers, Yankees or Angels would probably out-bid the Twins.  Fine.  The Dodgers have recently started operating like the Royals.  The Angels, even with Cole aren't going anywhere next year or the near future, so let the Yankees go $250 million or more.  Seems like avoiding the luxury tax is more important to the Dodgers and Yankees than ever before.  Why not shock the world Twins !  Heck, offer Cole 3-years $120 million.  I prefer Ryu to Mad-Bum as well, but the only sure thing is Cole. 

[dbminn]

 few extra 2019 stats/metrics to compare the three SP:

 

IP - Bumgarner (207.2), Bailey (163.1), Teheran (174.2)

All three SP started more than 30 games in 2019. MadBum provided 33-40 more IP. MadBum gets the extra IP because he's the most effective SP the third time through the lineup. The extra innings save wear on the bullpen. Bailey has the most uncertain track record.

 

BB% - Bumgarner (5.1%), Bailey (7.6%), Teheran (11.0%)

If Kyle Gibson drove you nuts with his "nibbling" (7.9%), just wait until you get the full Teheran experience. BB rate is an important consideration for a team with poor defense. These numbers are similar to their career rates.

 

WHIP - Bumgarner (1.13), Bailey (1.32), Teheran (1.32)

What's more important than walks/hits per IP? MadBum allowed 15% fewer baserunners per IP in 2019. The gap holds for their careers. Teheran has a career WHIP of 1.21, while Bailey has a career WHIP of 1.37. MadBum's 2019 is right in line with his entire career (1.11).

 

Granular Data

MadBum throws more first strikes, gets hitters to chase outside the zone more often, and has a higher swinging strike rate.

 

These are the reasons MadBum will make a lot more money than Teheran or Bailey.

[Twins_Fan_For_Life]

It would appear that starting pitching is like sex. To quote Van Halen, "Everybody Wants Some". And the Twins ain't getting any.

[USAFChief]

IF he returns to form is wishful thinking with all those innings on that arm. If anything the last two seasons was an uptick over what is more likely to happen with him over the life of a five year deal. He has a splashy name, and sadly, a lot of Twins fans seem to want to make that fA splash. Whether it makes sense or not some folks appear to be of the midset that this team had better spend money and nothing else would appease them.

 

It really is a drag, in my opinion.

case in point...Justin Verlander, who many said was washed up.

[ewen21]

case in point...Justin Verlander, who many said was washed up.

When has a guy done what Verlander has aside from Roger Clemens? Verlander is like a one in 5,000 example

[notoriousgod71]

 

Bumgarner is not as good as Wheeler. We went 5/100 on him. 4/76 is where I'd go on madbum. I could see a 5th year if it was a team option of 19mil with a 2-3mil buyout.

 

But our AAV offer to Bumgarner should be less than Wheeler imo.

 

If our offer to Bumgarner is less than what we offered Wheeler we won't get him either.

[castino2]

Bumgarner is a analyticians worst nightmare.  Last few seasons, he looks utterly hittable on paper. But he checks every "intangibles" box known to man: fierce competitor, nerves of steel, quiet leadership, relative batting prowess (he'll pinch hit, BTW). Hard to qualify these elements, so beware when ripping him.  His last 3 seasons do not indicated decline, rather are the results of 2 freak injuries that do NOT indicate any susceptibility to recurring injury. One was a shoulder injury from a dirt bike accident and the next year was a fractured hand from a line drive in spring training.  Add that to being on an un-competitive team going nowhere and it was surely frustrating for him.  A new environment is exactly what the doc ordered.  His numbers will improve and he is a stud in the post season, as proven.  He would have changed our entire post-season run this past year. Its a smart more. Thanks for the article and GO TWINS!

[FritzDahmus]

Pohlad was looking for an excuse to lament and let us know that he "got outbid yet again....damn".

 

He can use this article to fashion himself a nice excuse.

 

But no worries. Remember, if Pineda had been legal..........Berrios, Odorizzi, and Pineda would have been a decent 1-2-3 punch in the playoffs.

 

What we should be investigating, is how to get MadBum types in the bullpen. We need 2 or 3 to go with the young live arms we have there now. Not much out there [i understand that]....maybe a clever trade is in order??

 

Or plow thru until the trade deadline next year?? Then unload a prospect or 2 to get bullpen help. Like last year.....er, I mean....

[nicksaviking]

case in point...Justin Verlander, who many said was washed up.

The Verlander factor is the only reason I’m even remotely interested in Bumgarner.

 

But Verlander’s ability to maintain his velocity and strikeout percentage into his twilight years seems to be unique. Barring injury, Bumgarner probably isn’t likely to completely implode, but based on Tom’s piece, I’d think it’s more likely that Bumgarner resembles a Carl Pavano than a Justin Verlander. That’s still a useful pitcher, but not the kind that will advance a team further in the playoffs.

[castino2]

 

For Mad Bum there are two big questions the front office will need to answer.  First, is he the type of pitcher that will adjust late in career to drop in velocity? As all pitchers lose velocity as they age, and some make adjustments and pitch very late into 30's even early 40's, others barely make mid 30's.  If you think he can adjust and "reinvent" himself as he ages, picking up new off speed knowing how to hit all zones and not just try to over power then he will be fine.  If he is one that relies on velocity and will not adjust then stay away.

 

The second question, is what kind of veteran club house guy is he?  Many had credited Cruz with more than just being a good hitter, but a good club house guy that helped Sano and other hitters and is overall good guy to have on team.  Part of spending on plus 30 players is can they help young guys and will they be good for club house.  In my opinion, baseball is the by far the most important sport to look at team chemistry.  You spend every day, except for all-star break and a couple of scattered off days, with mostly the same 25 teammates, plus coaches and club house guys, for nearly 9 months.  It is hard to be with people that much you do not get along with.

 

If the Twins front office believe the answer to both questions is yes, give him 4 or 5 years at 20 to 25 mil.  I trust Falvene and their "nerds" to know a ton about all these pitchers and will make a good choice.  Unlike old guard, this group looks at everything and does not care what fan's opinions are, because wins is what matters and if you are winning tickets will be sold.    

May I attempt an answer?  1) he has never been a true power pitcher, his velocity was down in the recent past due to injury but actually made an uptick last year.  He relies on a above average curve and changeup and nibbling the corners.  He conceivably could become a Greg Maddux type guy, but he'll never be a Verlander.

2) He leads by example and is quiet and intense which I think will play well with this crew.  He is no-nonsense and fierce.

 

I hope they get him!

 

 

 

[Yossarian]

Nice work, Tom.  But, MadBum destroyed NL pitching?  He hit .127/.236/.222 in 2019, well off his best years.  Sounded like we'd play MadBum at 1B on his off-days, but Shohei Ohtani he's not.

[Twodogs]

Twins need to make Ryu an offer, Madbum an offer, Cole an offer, Stasburg an offer, Tehran an offer, etc.....

 

Offer all of them. Offer Cole the biggest contract possible, then force the Angels to outbid us, drive his price up, that, if the Twins don't get Cole, would hurt the Angels bottom line for a few years. Offer Madbum 4 years, offer Ryu a big contract, then if teams outbid the Twins it will hurt their bottom lines also. Put bids out on all of them, maybe we don't get any of them, but instead of reacting to the market, drive the market. Give competitive offers to all of them if one signs then pull the other offers.

 

Tehran reminds me sort of like Ervin Santana. He has been fairly consistent in his career, has at times looks real good and other times just been average but he doesn't ever seen to be terrible. Maybe he has the ability to put together one superior season like Ervin did? Baily kinda reminds me of Anibal Sanchez. Bailey when he came up had tons of potential, kind of bogged down on a poor team and then found a new home last year maybe made some changes and produced. The nice thing about a guy like that is you can take a chance on him and just cut bait if it doesn't work. The Twins even if they lucked out and got some Cole in their Christmas stocking, could still celebrate with some Baily's and it might work out? If not you're really not down anything. Again I think the Twins need to put out the market value offers or maybe just a tick above to all of the big names right now. If one takes the offer then pull the rest, but drive the market, force the other teams to outbid us. I think maybe we did that with Wheeler, if we offered him 100 million, then the Phils had to pay more. Offer all of them win one of them, or force the other teams to overpay.

[castino2]

 

The Verlander factor is the only reason I’m even remotely interested in Bumgarner.

But Verlander’s ability to maintain his velocity and strikeout percentage into his twilight years seems to be unique. Barring injury, Bumgarner probably isn’t likely to completely implode, but based on Tom’s piece, I’d think it’s more likely that Bumgarner resembles a Carl Pavano than a Justin Verlander. That’s still a useful pitcher, but not the kind that will advance a team further in the playoffs.

I'm not afraid to compare MadBum to Greg Maddux (as I wrote in an earlier comment).  He was on the same trajectory as Maddux right up until he had his dirt bike accident. IF I say IF there was no permanent damage from that injury I think he can be that kind of pitcher moving forward. I just don't feel your Carl Pavano comparison at all.

[castino2]

 

Twins need to make Ryu an offer, Madbum an offer, Cole an offer, Stasburg an offer, Tehran an offer, etc.....

Offer all of them. Offer Cole the biggest contract possible, then force the Angels to outbid us, drive his price up, that, if the Twins don't get Cole, would hurt the Angels bottom line for a few years. Offer Madbum 4 years, offer Ryu a big contract, then if teams outbid the Twins it will hurt their bottom lines also. Put bids out on all of them, maybe we don't get any of them, but instead of reacting to the market, drive the market. Give competitive offers to all of them if one signs then pull the other offers.

Tehran reminds me sort of like Ervin Santana. He has been fairly consistent in his career, has at times looks real good and other times just been average but he doesn't ever seen to be terrible. Maybe he has the ability to put together one superior season like Ervin did? Baily kinda reminds me of Anibal Sanchez. Bailey when he came up had tons of potential, kind of bogged down on a poor team and then found a new home last year maybe made some changes and produced. The nice thing about a guy like that is you can take a chance on him and just cut bait if it doesn't work. The Twins even if they lucked out and got some Cole in their Christmas stocking, could still celebrate with some Baily's and it might work out? If not you're really not down anything. Again I think the Twins need to put out the market value offers or maybe just a tick above to all of the big names right now. If one takes the offer then pull the rest, but drive the market, force the other teams to outbid us. I think maybe we did that with Wheeler, if we offered him 100 million, then the Phils had to pay more. Offer all of them win one of them, or force the other teams to overpay.

Love this energy. Although those big offers won't come, just cuz TV revenue is the biggest factor is Team profits and our market is just not big enough compared to LA and NY (and others), I think Ryu is the most talented guy out there(other than Cole, obvs). But he is real injury risk.  That groin goes out every year, and it could be his undoing.  So MadBum is the next best choice, to me. I think its smart to focus on him, and he's a safe bet for a longer term contract, in my mind.

[Tom Froemming]

 

 few extra 2019 stats/metrics to compare the three SP:

 

IP - Bumgarner (207.2), Bailey (163.1), Teheran (174.2)

All three SP started more than 30 games in 2019. MadBum provided 33-40 more IP. MadBum gets the extra IP because he's the most effective SP the third time through the lineup. The extra innings save wear on the bullpen. Bailey has the most uncertain track record.

 

BB% - Bumgarner (5.1%), Bailey (7.6%), Teheran (11.0%)

If Kyle Gibson drove you nuts with his "nibbling" (7.9%), just wait until you get the full Teheran experience. BB rate is an important consideration for a team with poor defense. These numbers are similar to their career rates.

 

WHIP - Bumgarner (1.13), Bailey (1.32), Teheran (1.32)

What's more important than walks/hits per IP? MadBum allowed 15% fewer baserunners per IP in 2019. The gap holds for their careers. Teheran has a career WHIP of 1.21, while Bailey has a career WHIP of 1.37. MadBum's 2019 is right in line with his entire career (1.11).

 

Granular Data

MadBum throws more first strikes, gets hitters to chase outside the zone more often, and has a higher swinging strike rate.

 

These are the reasons MadBum will make a lot more money than Teheran or Bailey.

First off, thank you. This is a well-thought out response. I thought Patrick did a nice job shedding some positive light on MadBum in his piece (that's linked to in the article) and I'm honestly trying to check my distaste for Bumgarner, because if the Twins do sign him I want to be able to be excited about it.

 

But, Bumgarner was more effective the third/fourth time through the order than Teheran, but not Bailey.

 

3rd or 4th time through the order 2019

.271/.335/.414 (.749 OPS) Bailey

.263/.305/.473 (.778 OPS) Bumgarner

.262/.345/.476 (.821 OPS) Teheran

 

Also, in concern to that question I bolded, a lot of things are more important than WHIP. WHIP has some utility, but it's very problematic that a walk or a single is weighted the same as a home run.

 

I showed the xwOBA in the article, but below is each pitchers actual wOBA from 2019. Bumgarner holds the advantage, but it's nowhere near as big a gap as with WHIP.

 

.300 Bumgarner

.307 Bailey

.310 Teheran 

.320 League Average (per BaseabllSavant)

[Tom Froemming]

 

Nice work, Tom.  But, MadBum destroyed NL pitching?  He hit .127/.236/.222 in 2019, well off his best years.  Sounded like we'd play MadBum at 1B on his off-days, but Shohei Ohtani he's not.

Not talking about his hitting, MadBum destroyed NL pitchers who faced him. Pitchers went 1-for-54 against him and struck out in 36 of their 59 plate appearances (61.0%!!!). That complete domination of his fellow hurlers skews his stats.

[h2oface]

 

 few extra 2019 stats/metrics to compare the three SP:

 

IP - Bumgarner (207.2), Bailey (163.1), Teheran (174.2)

All three SP started more than 30 games in 2019. MadBum provided 33-40 more IP. MadBum gets the extra IP because he's the most effective SP the third time through the lineup. The extra innings save wear on the bullpen. Bailey has the most uncertain track record.

 

BB% - Bumgarner (5.1%), Bailey (7.6%), Teheran (11.0%)

If Kyle Gibson drove you nuts with his "nibbling" (7.9%), just wait until you get the full Teheran experience. BB rate is an important consideration for a team with poor defense. These numbers are similar to their career rates.

 

WHIP - Bumgarner (1.13), Bailey (1.32), Teheran (1.32)

What's more important than walks/hits per IP? MadBum allowed 15% fewer baserunners per IP in 2019. The gap holds for their careers. Teheran has a career WHIP of 1.21, while Bailey has a career WHIP of 1.37. MadBum's 2019 is right in line with his entire career (1.11).

 

Granular Data

MadBum throws more first strikes, gets hitters to chase outside the zone more often, and has a higher swinging strike rate.

 

These are the reasons MadBum will make a lot more money than Teheran or Bailey.

 

Ryu had his career year last year. The first time he made it through a year and stayed in off the IL/DL most of the time. I think it was an outlier, and would not bet on him. I hope they $ign Cole Bumgarner before it is too late. tic toc. (Cole, too, for that matter....)

[Wax off]

It doesn't matter that the money is crazy. The money is almost irrelevant. The Twins can easily spend $140M and still (will) turn a profit.

If you're cheering for Twins profits, that would probably be reassuring.

 

I disagree with a lot of what you said in the quote. That's not much money. It seems like a lot to a Twins fans, but look at these contract signings. We can't just say, "Oh we can afford to swing a miss on a big contract on a controversial pitcher" (2016 Bumgarner vs 2019 Bumgarner).

 

It seems as though you're arguing that the Twins can be more careless with their future commitments because they have so much money to spend yet THIS year($40m or so).

[mlhouse]

Here is a point I have made for years.   You can't do it half way and that is what the Twins ownership have done for decades.  

 

I criticized them for years because instead of committing to rebuilding, they played it half way and filled their lineups with mediocrities over developing their prospects.

 

Now, when they have taken a step forward if they don't come out and sign a couple of bigger free agents to fill the glaring holes in their lineup and staff, they are just playing it half way again.

 

With Pineda signed (but suspended) the Twins have a full cost salary base of about $95 million.  While the league average  is $140 million, that is just the average with teams that are in the rebuilding/tanking phases Miami, Baltimore, and Tampa.   

 

If they don't make at least two big free agents splashes to take the next step, they are just playing it half way again.  

[nicksaviking]

I'm not afraid to compare MadBum to Greg Maddux (as I wrote in an earlier comment).  He was on the same trajectory as Maddux right up until he had his dirt bike accident. IF I say IF there was no permanent damage from that injury I think he can be that kind of pitcher moving forward. I just don't feel your Carl Pavano comparison at all.

I guess that would depend on if you were thinking of early 30’s Maddox who was still elite or late 30’s Maddox who no longer was.

 

I kind of forgot Pavano got turned into a bit of a punchline at the end, I didn’t mean to use him as a dig though. Until his final year he was solidly useful, just not the kind of difference maker the team needed.

[ChrisKnutson]

If we miss on Bumgarner, I’d rather not take a chance on Ryu. I mean, there’s plenty of left handed option other than those two, right??

 

I’m suprised to not have heard any interest in Keuchel yet. In addition, the trade market also has Ray, Gonzales, Quintana, Price, Happ, and maybe even E-Rod who’d be my ideal target if we fail to sign Bumgarner.

[tony&rodney]

"It doesn't matter that the money is crazy. The money is almost irrelevant. The Twins can easily spend $140M and still (will) turn a profit."

 

I put forth this argument with an attempt  to put aside the rationalization of what mlb players make and how this affects individuals view of the players and their performance. A team works with a budget and must analyze their decisions accordingly. Cole raises the budget the most and presents a risk. There are also rewards. The Mauer contract has been argued endlessly. I think Fangraphs best put this to rest, but quite naturally people have opinions. No way will I return to that discussion. I want the Twins to be better in 2020 because their core team is poised for excitement. Yes, some Twins will regress but others will repeat and still others will improve. The young milb players need a little more time. A Cole, Strasburg, or Bumgarner plus others signing (s) are inherently risky but will not break the budget. I'm not identifying any team willing to trade an ace, even for a boatload of prospects which would cause future financial hardship. The Twins were in on Wheeler precisely because he is a chance worth taking. He chose to go elsewhere despite the Twins' offer. Now the Twins need to pivot to the remaining pitchers. This is the winter to supplement the core.

[nicksaviking]

If we miss on Bumgarner, I’d rather not take a chance on Ryu. I mean, there’s plenty of left handed option other than those two, right??

I’m suprised to not have heard any interest in Keuchel yet. In addition, the trade market also has Ray, Gonzales, Quintana, Price, Happ, and maybe even E-Rod who’d be my ideal target if we fail to sign Bumgarner.

With this team’s infield defense I would t be surprised if the team isn’t considering Keuchel at all.

[dbminn]

 

First off, thank you. This is a well-thought out response. I thought Patrick did a nice job shedding some positive light on MadBum in his piece (that's linked to in the article) and I'm honestly trying to check my distaste for Bumgarner, because if the Twins do sign him I want to be able to be excited about it.

 

But, Bumgarner was more effective the third/fourth time through the order than Teheran, but not Bailey.

 

3rd or 4th time through the order 2019

.271/.335/.414 (.749 OPS) Bailey

.263/.305/.473 (.778 OPS) Bumgarner

.262/.345/.476 (.821 OPS) Teheran

 

Also, in concern to that question I bolded, a lot of things are more important than WHIP. WHIP has some utility, but it's very problematic that a walk or a single is weighted the same as a home run.

 

I showed the xwOBA in the article, but below is each pitchers actual wOBA from 2019. Bumgarner holds the advantage, but it's nowhere near as big a gap as with WHIP.

 

.300 Bumgarner

.307 Bailey

.310 Teheran 

.320 League Average (per BaseabllSavant)

 

Sorry about the 3rd time through. I was looking at the career numbers. Regarding WHIP - in this particular case, the difference is mostly due to BB% (nobody had a weird BABIP). BB rate stabilizes much more quickly (170 batters) than HR allowed (1320) or XBH (1450). There is nothing in MadBum's past to believe he's going to have a similar HR rate next season. 

 

I'll be satisfied If the Twins sign Bailey for the #5 spot. I'd rather see a trade for Jon Gray than a Bumgarner signing (too bad the Rockies probably won't come to their senses). If the Twins are trying to win the most games next season - instead of signing value plays - Bumgarner is the superior , IMO. 

 

Thanks, Tom. By the way, I don't receive notifications if TD writers comment on my entries. Do you know why that is?

[ChrisKnutson]

With this team’s infield defense I would t be surprised if the team isn’t considering Keuchel at all.

 

You’re probably right, but depending on who we replace Cron with could potentially change that.

[mikelink45]

 

14-5, 182 innings,  2.32 ERA,  Runner up for Cy Young.       I can't tell if you were joking or if you didn't consider 2019 to be a break out season.    He's two years older than Bumgarner.    The more I look at his stats the more I wonder why we would want Wheeler, Bumgarten, or Hamels or even Strasberg over him.   

Just sign someone!