Article: Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?1125-Seth-s-Preliminary-Top-50-Twins-Prospects

[Thrylos]

as always, hard to deal with those lists... And really if you look you have Buxton who has proven nothing and Gibson who has proven something (and even more in the AFL) vs Hicks who by any means I can count is "it" and Hermsen who just deserves it. Hard to argue with this list on the top other than I love Buxton's and Kepler's potential but I do have to see more...

[Giles Ferrell]

#6 is the right spot for Gibson. But, he is having a terrific performance in the AFL, so he should be in the discussion for Top 5.

[nicksaviking]

Just curious, what is it that causes you to rank Bard third among this year's pitching draft class? There were half a dozen guys who were lights out but he was not one of them.

[Seth Stohs]

Just curious, what is it that causes you to rank Bard third among this year's pitching draft class? There were half a dozen guys who were lights out but he was not one of them.

 

His draft status means that he's thought of more highly than those other guys. When healthy, he can be very good. He will likely get the opportunity to start which (in my opinion) is more valuable than relieving. Also, it's hard to make much of anything that happens in 15-20 games (especially remember that a couple of those relievers will move to starters next spring and we'll learn a lot more about them then).

[maxisagod]

Vargas at 9 is very aggressive, fun! Why did you rate Jorge Polanco ahead of Levi Michael and Niko Goodrum? Is it all glove or do you think Jorge will out hit the other two?

[ScottyB]

Has Angel Morales really fallen so far? He's still listed as the #10 prospect on Twins site. He hasn't shown much in a couple of years because of injuries, but to not even show up in the top 50?

[Seth Stohs]

Vargas at 9 is very aggressive, fun! Why did you rate Jorge Polanco ahead of Levi Michael and Niko Goodrum? Is it all glove or do you think Jorge will out hit the other two?

 

Goodrum probably has the highest upside offensively. I've never been real high on Michael. Polanco finally did something this year, and he's so young. In reality, I think the main point about the three of these guys is they're all in the same range. As of right now, I rank them Polanco, Michael, Goodrum, but of course, that's subject to change.

[iastfan112]

Vargas(SSS), Hermsen(disappearing K rate), and Wimmers(control, then injury) all feel overrated imo. Hudson Boyd and especially Levi Michael feel low. I can understand the drop with disappointing seasons but mid 20's seems overly harsh.

[righty8383]

Has Angel Morales really fallen so far? He's still listed as the #10 prospect on Twins site. He hasn't shown much in a couple of years because of injuries, but to not even show up in the top 50?

 

That same site has Kyle Gibson at 16, Max Kepler at 18 and Adrien Salcedo at 7. Its as if thier not even trying. To get back to your original question, yes, Morales has fallen that far. He had one decent offensive season and that was in the hitter friendly Appalachian league. Since then he has been a strikeout machine who has hit for little power.

[Seth Stohs]

Has Angel Morales really fallen so far? He's still listed as the #10 prospect on Twins site. He hasn't shown much in a couple of years because of injuries, but to not even show up in the top 50?

 

The short answer is "Yes!" A few years ago, I ranked him #3 in the organization, and I kept him in the Top 10 for awhile. The guy is an incredible athlete with great talent, but last year was a mess. He had a great first 2 weeks and then struggled like crazy the rest of the year. HE is terrific defensively. He has great speed and a strong arm. That said, I believe that he can be a guy that goes up to AA and does better. We'll see.

[Top Gun]

Prospects are prospects and notting more, only a very few will ever make it, and who's

to know who they wil ever be.

[righty8383]

Prospects are prospects and notting more, only a very few will ever make it, and who's

to know who they wil ever be.

 

I think that anyone who follows baseball closely(everyone on this site) is fully aware of this.

[SpantheMan]

When people say only a few will ever make it, it gets me thinking. In the top 10, there are a few who will certainly make it. Hicks and arcia could probably be 4th outfielders right now. Gibson will make it unless his arm falls off. How much would it take or Sano to not make it?

[mlhouse]

1. I think your Joe Benson is rated too high. I know that position should not be a major deciding factor, but with 4 other OFs ahead of him in the top 10, his chances of making it have been severely diminished.

 

2. To a lesser extent, same with Adrian Salcedo. His 2012 campagin was a major setback and there is no way that he should be considered a top 15 prospect. Alex Wimmer is also rated way too high. He has only pitched 45 innings in the past two years. same with Matt Summers. You need to have BJ Hermsen rated ahead of either just for production, Hudson Boyd for potential, and Luke Bard also for highly drafted potential.

 

3. Danny Santana is ranked way too high for a guy with a sub-300 OBP at Elizabethton/Beloit. His HR pop is nice, but not signficant. He certainly cannot be seen as highly of a prospect as Dozier, who performed much better at those levels.

 

4. All of the college relief arms that the Twins drafted need to be considered much higher than they are.

[johnnydakota]

Just curious, what is it that causes you to rank Bard third among this year's pitching draft class? There were half a dozen guys who were lights out but he was not one of them.

 

His draft status means that he's thought of more highly than those other guys. When healthy, he can be very good. He will likely get the opportunity to start which (in my opinion) is more valuable than relieving. Also, it's hard to make much of anything that happens in 15-20 games (especially remember that a couple of those relievers will move to starters next spring and we'll learn a lot more about them then).

 

so because he was drafted higher , he is better? wonder if mike piazza thinks that way,

also a reliever in college and we are going to transorm him here?why not just draft say gausman or zimmerman?

[lightfoot789]

I like your list and find myself intrigued with the kids from the Appy League. I watched the Appy league over the last few years and have a special feeling about several of those kids. As teams draft on potential and look for that special "Thing / Tool" from each draftee - You could see some of those Tools on display with these kids and see them only getting better through the system (regardless if it was only the Appy League). From Buxton to Berrios to Duffy to Melotakis to Walker to Chargois to Palanco to even Burris who was lights out with a crazy fast ball and curve ball. I'd like to know what the coaches thought of these guys after a short season and instructionals.

[johnnydakota]

wow and you dont even have slama in the top 50 ?

so much for stats huh...hermsen is rated high and heres a kid with a below average fastball no out pitch who the twins hope and believe can be a back of the rotation starter , maybe a decent #4 or 5 guy , and once again athony gets dissed

[Seth Stohs]

Prospects are prospects and notting more, only a very few will ever make it, and who's

to know who they wil ever be.

 

Of course, this is correct. However, I would (or at least could) argue that the more good prospects a team has, the more likely that one or two will turn out. Also, I'm not looking for superstars (although I think the first 7 on this list could potentially be), and it's important to realize that those in the 30s could be valuable big league relievers, and that utility infielders have good careers. And also, these guys work hard and deserve to be recognized.

[Seth Stohs]

1. I think your Joe Benson is rated too high. I know that position should not be a major deciding factor, but with 4 other OFs ahead of him in the top 10, his chances of making it have been severely diminished.

 

2. To a lesser extent, same with Adrian Salcedo. His 2012 campagin was a major setback and there is no way that he should be considered a top 15 prospect. Alex Wimmer is also rated way too high. He has only pitched 45 innings in the past two years. same with Matt Summers. You need to have BJ Hermsen rated ahead of either just for production, Hudson Boyd for potential, and Luke Bard also for highly drafted potential.

 

3. Danny Santana is ranked way too high for a guy with a sub-300 OBP at Elizabethton/Beloit. His HR pop is nice, but not signficant. He certainly cannot be seen as highly of a prospect as Dozier, who performed much better at those levels.

 

4. All of the college relief arms that the Twins drafted need to be considered much higher than they are.

 

All fair points which is why the title of the blog includes my name. I definitely encourage people to post their own blogs with their Top 20s or Top 50s or whatever.

 

I try not to let injuries factor into my rankings too much. Kyle Gibson missed a year with Tommy John and I don't think I ever had him lower than #7. Wimmers was hurt last year and had Tommy John. Salcedo rehabbed a shoulder injury most of last year. Benson had about 3 different injuries last year. It is difficult to determine how much a guy should fall due to injury. Benson moved down 6 spots for me. Salcedo and Wimmers each dropped a few as well.

 

Also, Matt Summers threw 148.1 innings last year. Low K total, but having seen him pitch, he's got the stuff. I can't believe he won't strike more out.

 

I fully admit that I'm a Danny Santana believer. I've seen him play a few times and (maybe that clouds my judgment some) I think he's going to be good. Don't get me wrong... I had Dozier ranked #11 last year. To me, that was a spot where he could be a solid every day big leaguer, not an all-star, but a contributor. Likewise, I'm not saying that Santana will be an All-Star, but his tools are incredible and I think he can stick at SS. And if he puts together another solid year next year in New Britain, he could move up a few more spots. Or, if he doesn't post a .300 OBP again, he could drop precipitously. I definitely acknowledge I'm out on a limb on Santana.

 

Regarding the college relievers, you're probably right... It's actually unusual for me to include this many relief pitchers in my rankings. Not that I don't respect the position. I just have a hard time ranking guys that will pitch 60-70 innings ahead of guys that will throw 170+ innings. But the Twins definitely have some power arms in their system now.

[Seth Stohs]

so because he was drafted higher , he is better? wonder if mike piazza thinks that way,

also a reliever in college and we are going to transorm him here?why not just draft say gausman or zimmerman?

 

At this stage, yes... do you think that Piazza was instantly a top prospect when he was a 62nd round pick? No, but he played great and moved up lists quickly. We've got like 20 innings on all of these college relievers, at low levels, so we know pretty much nothing yet.

 

And, they took the best player available (Buxton), so they couldn't get Gausman or Zimmer.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Sorry Seth, 50 is too many. The list starts to lose any meaning after 20-25 considering you just named about a third of the entire organization.

[righty8383]

wow and you dont even have slama in the top 50 ?

so much for stats huh...hermsen is rated high and heres a kid with a below average fastball no out pitch who the twins hope and believe can be a back of the rotation starter , maybe a decent #4 or 5 guy , and once again athony gets dissed

 

I'd say Slama is easily a top 50 Twins' minor leaguer, just not really a prospect anymore. Thats not meant to be a diss...

[ericchri]

Harrison is even less likely to stick at 3B than Sano, correct? Are any of our SS prospects candidates to move to 3B?

[jjswol]

A pretty good list Seth. Since you have been doing this for 7-8 years, how about just for fun posting you previous 20 top lists to review somwhere on this site.

[nicksaviking]

so because he was drafted higher , he is better? wonder if mike piazza thinks that way,

also a reliever in college and we are going to transorm him here?why not just draft say gausman or zimmerman?

 

At this stage, yes... do you think that Piazza was instantly a top prospect when he was a 62nd round pick? No, but he played great and moved up lists quickly. We've got like 20 innings on all of these college relievers, at low levels, so we know pretty much nothing yet.

 

And, they took the best player available (Buxton), so they couldn't get Gausman or Zimmer.

 

That's a legit arguement regarding Bard. There is probably still some residual resentment from some of us surrounding the guy. He was not a popular draft pick and then pitched below expectaions and was injured in his short professional debut. The small sample size arguement is all the harder for optomists to swallow because it then invalidates the success of the eight or so drafted arms who pitched well above expectations last year.

[Seth Stohs]

That's a legit arguement regarding Bard. There is probably still some residual resentment from some of us surrounding the guy. He was not a popular draft pick and then pitched below expectaions and was injured in his short professional debut. The small sample size arguement is all the harder for optomists to swallow because it then invalidates the success of the eight or so drafted arms who pitched well above expectations last year.

 

I don't want to invalidate those successes, but we always have to be careful about making too much out of college pitchers putting up insane numbers in E-town. However, 5 guys from this year's draft moved up to Beloit and still did well. But some will move into starting roles (Rogers, Baxendale, Bard, etc.) and that will be an adjustment. The relievers could move quickly to New Britain and that's when they should start getting challenged.

[SarasotaBill]

Ratings based on who I would rather keep or trade :

Too high:

- Salcedo - low k rate even before injury

- Herrmann - back-up C/OF

- Santana - OBP is too low

- Hernandez - nothing special (AAA pitcher)

- Ortiz - way too high

- Boer - gives up too many hits/IP

 

Too Low:

- Minier - even though he hasn't played yet, bonus indicates top 25 to start

- Zach Jones - 2012 relief arms are underrated

- Michael - 2nd Half stats were good (386 OBP)

[nicksaviking]

Ratings based on who I would rather keep or trade :

Too high:

- Salcedo - low k rate even before injury

- Herrmann - back-up C/OF

- Santana - OBP is too low

- Hernandez - nothing special (AAA pitcher)

- Ortiz - way too high

- Boer - gives up too many hits/IP

 

Too Low:

- Minier - even though he hasn't played yet, bonus indicates top 25 to start

- Zach Jones - 2012 relief arms are underrated

- Michael - 2nd Half stats were good (386 OBP)

 

I'd also add Hermsen and Summers to that list. I just don't see how pitchers who struggle that badly to strike guys out in the low minors are going to be able to contribute at the major league level.

[iastfan112]

I'm fine with Salcedo, compared with the others his "stuff" is talked about as being pretty good, that he should get more strike outs then he does thus far. With Hermsen his velocity dipped after being drafted(I saw him in HS, he threw quite hard then) and it's never picked back up.