Front Page: Additional Options to Replace Miguel Sano at Third Base

[twinkiesfan11]

Orioes cutting loose Jonathan Villar. Is he a possibility to switch things up between 2B SS 3B? Fives the Twins some needed stolen bases, plys a solid bat (few too many K's). - ?

Was just thinking the same, this would be a solid pickup if they get a chance to claim him.

[Doctor Wu]

On the bright side, Trevor Plouffe is no longer an option ... or at least I hope not.

[ewen21]

I get Sano isn’t the greatest 3B, but acting like moving him off of 3B is going to solve problems and propel this team to the next level is asinine. IMO, it comes down to a number of people having a some sort of negative bias related to Sano (going back to off-field things, stupid striv articles about his weight, etc).

 

If you can upgrade him at 3B and move him to 1B, fine. But bringing in some marginal player like Brock Holt just to move Sano off of 3B is such a bad take that it’s borderline offensive.

I have to agree. Defense did not hinder us that much last year and the real reason why we have been terrible in the playoffs is that this team clenches up so horribly they can’t hit. Lots of talk about improving defense this winter but in each case it eels like we are chasing our tail.

 

It’s nice to have good defenders all over the field but let’s not pretend defense makes a bigger impact than offense at the ML level

[jorgenswest]

The top two teams in defensive efficiency last year were the Astros and Dodgers. The Yankees were 16th but were very good in the playoffs with their roster finally healthy. The Twins ranked 25th. I think defensive efficiency has a solid correlation with wins. It was the Twins weakest facet of their game. The Twins pitchers fared very well in spite of the defense.

 

Defenses that allow more balls to be put in play increases pitch counts and shortens starts adding a cumulative burden to a pitching staff. It has a significant impact on winning games and is particularly critical matching up against good teams. I think the Twins can win the central with a bad defense. I don’t think they will go far in the playoffs unless they can get close to average defensively.

[Jeff_M]

If Cron is gone, all for it.  Too many frustrating at-bats with that guy.

 

I hope they nix any thought of Donaldson quickly.  The guy's an *******.  Juju's a thing over a long season.

 

Thumbs up on Moose though.  With that guy you know what you're getting - consistency year to year.  Big team chemistry guy too.  I feel he's underrated by many.

 

Those other guys, we don't need any more guys like that. 'Budget' or 'value' picks.  Bottom of the barrel.  No.  Any guy being brought it needs to be a proven player who knows how to perform in the clutch.

 

p.s. I would take Thames or Aguilar over Crone, if a main concern is getting someone who doesn't break the bank or require a long contract.

[ewen21]

 

Defenses that allow more balls to be put in play increases pitch counts and shortens starts adding a cumulative burden to a pitching staff. It has a significant impact on winning games and is particularly critical matching up against good teams. I think the Twins can win the central with a bad defense. I don’t think they will go far in the playoffs unless they can get close to average defensively.

If I were allowed to field a team of the best offensive players by position and you were allowed to field the best defensive players by position and we had equal pitching staffs and we played 162 head to head games I guarantee my team would crush yours.

 

I am not saying defense doesn’t matter. I’m saying it doesn’t matter nearly as much as you seem to believe. Pitching and offense is far and away the biggest aspects of the game with defense in third place.

 

Could you imagine taking a team of the best players all time offensively by position against the best defensively by position? You can pick Ozzie Smith first and I’ll take Babe Ruth. Who made the better pick?

 

Honestly, I think people who want to act like scholars or connoisseurs lean heavily on the defense argument because it is a nuanced position that requires and enlists arcane metrics. You did a mic drop with DER being the determining factor in who wins championships? You don’t think Houston and Washington didn’t get there because they both had deep lineups and maybe the best starters in the games? It was there defensive efficiency.

 

Let’s be clear about this. The Twins were swept by the Yankees because we scored seven runs in three games and our pitching was exposed against their deep offense. It wasn’t because we couldn’t make 2 or 3 extra web gems.

[Nine of twelve]

 

It’s nice to have good defenders all over the field but let’s not pretend defense makes a bigger impact than offense at the ML level

Baseball has four aspects. In order of importance they are pitching, batting, fielding, and base running. There have been many teams that have overwhelmed their opponents with good pitching. There have been many teams that have overwhelmed their opponents with good batting. There have been no teams that have overwhelmed their opponents with good fielding or good base running.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Baseball has four aspects. In order of importance they are pitching, batting, fielding, and base running. There have been many teams that have overwhelmed their opponents with good pitching. There have been many teams that have overwhelmed their opponents with good batting. There have been no teams that have overwhelmed their opponents with good fielding or good base running.

I’m not disputing the importance you assigned to those four aspects of the game, but what about the infielder who makes a great play to end a tense inning, or the outfielder with such good range that routine two-base hits to the gap are routinely turned into fly ball outs?

[Nine of twelve]

 

I’m not disputing the importance you assigned to those four aspects of the game, but what about the infielder who makes a great play to end a tense inning, or the outfielder with such good range that routine two-base hits to the gap are routinely turned into fly ball outs?

Of course those plays are beneficial. But with good pitching and/or good hitting there will be fewer tense innings and the occasional gapper will be much less likely to cost your team a game.

[ewen21]

I’m not disputing the importance you assigned to those four aspects of the game, but what about the infielder who makes a great play to end a tense inning, or the outfielder with such good range that routine two-base hits to the gap are routinely turned into fly ball outs?

It is about opportunities to impact a game. The vast majority of plays made in baseball are considered routine for a major league player. If you put an above average fielder in the field over an average to slightly below average fielder how many opportunities will the above average fielder have to make an impact? We know he will get four at bats and if he can’t hit a lick what do we get from it? The hope that he can save a run isn’t anything that can be controlled. The number of at bats he gets can be.

 

Houston and Washington got as far as they did for two main reasons: deep lineups and stellar starting pitching. I we are going to be honest it wasn’t because they “caught the ball”

Guys like Hawk Harrelson and Gardy subscribe to that dated theory. Sure, it helps, but to make an analogy defense in baseball is like special teams in football. Offense is offense and pitching in baseball is like defense in football.

 

Whether that analogy works for you doesn’t matter to me. The main point is defense in baseball has nowhere near the importance of pitching or having offensive depth. And let’s not kid ourselves here. Defense was not why we lost in the playoffs. Above all, it was because we scored 7 runs in three games and because our starting pitching was mediocre. I honestly don’t want to hear about the defense. It had virtually no impact in any of the three and outs we have had. It was mostly because we haven’t hit worth a damn in the postseason. Look it up if you don’t remember. We have scored on average less than three runs a game in the postseason and it’s not because the opponent’s defense took hits away from us

[ewen21]

Of course those plays are beneficial. But with good pitching and/or good hitting there will be fewer tense innings and the occasional gapper will be much less likely to cost your team a game.

If a starting pitcher gets outs and goes seven and your offense hits three home runs you are safe. How many web gems can an upgrade in the field give you over what they’ve replaced? Maybe 10 in a year tops? If that defensive upgrade isn’t a very good hitter and what he’s replacing is then it’s actually probably a downgrade overall.

 

We are chasing our tails here

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The top two teams in defensive efficiency last year were the Astros and Dodgers. The Yankees were 16th but were very good in the playoffs with their roster finally healthy. The Twins ranked 25th. I think defensive efficiency has a solid correlation with wins. It was the Twins weakest facet of their game. The Twins pitchers fared very well in spite of the defense.

 

Defenses that allow more balls to be put in play increases pitch counts and shortens starts adding a cumulative burden to a pitching staff. It has a significant impact on winning games and is particularly critical matching up against good teams. I think the Twins can win the central with a bad defense. I don’t think they will go far in the playoffs unless they can get close to average defensively.

with this, the playoff baseball was more “dead” than the regular season.

 

The Twins built a team with good to great outfielders for a live ball carrying to the outfield. Injuries derailed this, but the infield was also built for the live ball. If more balls carry to the outfield, shifts can overcome your infield deficiencies. Fewer chances on infield plays can mitigate...

 

With a potential dead ball for ‘20, infield defense could regain priority.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

It is about opportunities to impact a game. The vast majority of plays made in baseball are considered routine for a major league player. If you put an above average fielder in the field over an average to slightly below average fielder how many opportunities will the above average fielder have to make an impact? We know he will get four at bats and if he can’t hit a lick what do we get from it? The hope that he can save a run isn’t anything that can be controlled. The number of at bats he gets can be.

Houston and Washington got as far as they did for two main reasons: deep lineups and stellar starting pitching. I we are going to be honest it wasn’t because they “caught the ball”

Guys like Hawk Harrelson and Gardy subscribe to that dated theory. Sure, it helps, but to make an analogy defense in baseball is like special teams in football. Offense is offense and pitching in baseball is like defense in football.

Whether that analogy works for you doesn’t matter to me. The main point is defense in baseball has nowhere near the importance of pitching or having offensive depth. And let’s not kid ourselves here. Defense was not why we lost in the playoffs. Above all, it was because we scored 7 runs in three games and because our starting pitching was mediocre. I honestly don’t want to hear about the defense. It had virtually no impact in any of the three and outs we have had. It was mostly because we haven’t hit worth a damn in the postseason. Look it up if you don’t remember. We have scored on average less than three runs a game in the postseason and it’s not because the opponent’s defense took hits away from us

Well let me talk about defense one more time anyway.

 

First of all, I agree the lack of pitching and hitting is why we lost the series. But if Cron makes that routine catch, two runs are saved. Period. Later in the fifth, if Sano makes that non-routine play on the Gleyber Torres liner, two more runs might be saved. That’s a lot of “ifs and buts” but if the game stays close, and low scoring, and the Twins win, it can change the whole series. Also for the record Bergman failed to make plays on a few of the same hits Sano failed to get there.

 

But yes I see what you are saying. It’s ultimately a cost-benefit and while there is certainty in getting the 4-5 plate appearances, it’s just not clear how much risk there is with chances in the field—which can be mitigated anyway, by shifts and how the batter is pitched to and such. In a long season, the offense is more important, but in a short series defensive mistakes can be magnified, and you just hope putting an insufficient defender in the field doesn’t backfire like the Cubs did with Schwarber in left in the 2015 playoffs. (Schwarber has gotten better over time.)

[Nine of twelve]

 

with this, the playoff baseball was more “dead” than the regular season.

The Twins built a team with good to great outfielders for a live ball carrying to the outfield. Injuries derailed this, but the infield was also built for the live ball. If more balls carry to the outfield, shifts can overcome your infield deficiencies. Fewer chances on infield plays can mitigate...

With a potential dead ball for ‘20, infield defense could regain priority.

Calling the 2020 baseball a potential dead ball is probably an overstatement. I anticipate that the ball will have greater air resistance restored but in any case this would only slightly increase the importance of fielding. Pitching and batting will still be far more important.

[Nine of twelve]

The discussion of the importance of defense is a bit tangential but here is how it applies to the thread topic: When all aspects of the game are taken into consideration I think Sano will be one of the best, possibly the best, third basemen in the majors in 2020. For that reason I think looking to replace him at this point in time is foolish.

[jorgenswest]

Do you think the Twins can get much more from shifting? Maybe. That will help.

 

If the Twins had turned balls in play into outs at an average rate it would have been 50 fewer balls in play. If they had a top quarter rate it would have been 80 fewer balls in play. If they were elite and turned balls into play into outs like Houston it would have been 150 fewer balls in play.

 

The numbers don’t quite work because more outs result in fewer opportunities to make other outs. Fewer balls in play also will lengthen starts and ease the burden on the bullpen. Rested pitchers will perform better.

 

Gerrit Cole is a great pitcher. It still has to help when you go from a defense in Pittsburgh that was one of the poorest in baseball at turning balls in play into outs to one of the best in Houston.

[ewen21]

Well let me talk about defense one more time anyway.

 

First of all, I agree the lack of pitching and hitting is why we lost the series. But if Cron makes that routine catch, two runs are saved. Period. Later in the fifth, if Sano makes that non-routine play on the Gleyber Torres liner, two more runs might be saved. That’s a lot of “ifs and buts” but if the game stays close, and low scoring, and the Twins win, it can change the whole series. Also for the record Bergman failed to make plays on a few of the same hits Sano failed to get there.

 

But yes I see what you are saying. It’s ultimately a cost-benefit and while there is certainty in getting the 4-5 plate appearances, it’s just not clear how much risk there is with chances in the field—which can be mitigated anyway, by shifts and how the batter is pitched to and such. In a long season, the offense is more important, but in a short series defensive mistakes can be magnified, and you just hope putting an insufficient defender in the field doesn’t backfire like the Cubs did with Schwarber in left in the 2015 playoffs. (Schwarber has gotten better over time.)

To assume each game should have been/could have been played flawlessly is futile. The Yankees made errors too and we didn’t capitalize on them at all. Even if we played flawless defense we wouldn’t have had much a chance with the way we hit and how our starters pitched.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

To assume each game should have been/could have been played flawlessly is futile. The Yankees made errors too and we didn’t capitalize on them at all. Even if we played flawless defense we wouldn’t have had much a chance with the way we hit and how our starters pitched.

True. I’ll just say we didn’t know that at the time of those two plays. But yes I agree.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The discussion of the importance of defense is a bit tangential but here is how it applies to the thread topic: When all aspects of the game are taken into consideration I think Sano will be one of the best, possibly the best, third basemen in the majors in 2020. For that reason I think looking to replace him at this point in time is foolish.

I hope you are right! Over a long season he should be an asset. Yet in a short series he is susceptible to underperformance. Cost-benefit.