Front Page: The 3-Batter Minimum and What It Could Mean for Minnesota’s Left-Handed Hitters

[Patrick Wozniak]

New rule changes are coming to baseball in 2020 and one that could affect our Minnesota Twins is the three-batter minimum for relief pitchers. No, we’re not taking a look at how this could affect the Twins bullpen. Today we are interested in what effect it could have on Twins hitters.Recently Jayson Stark of The Athletic took a look at some of the numbers that defined baseball in 2019. One of the numbers he featured was the increase in the quantity of at-bats left-handed batters had against left-handed relievers. This number has gone up in recent years but obviously could be affected by the three-batter minimum that relievers will face. This will more or less eliminate one-out lefties and left-handed relievers will be required to face more right-handed hitters as well.

 

Interestingly, left-handed relievers are already staying in to face more and more right-handed hitters. Stark points out the one-batter appearances by left-handed relievers has plummeted in recently years. However, left-handed hitters are facing more left-handed relievers than ever. The reason: with shorter outings by starting pitchers, managers are already expecting their lefty relievers to face multiple batters. This means that the lefty relievers of today must have the ability to get some right-handed hitters out with less emphasis on completely shutting down left-handed hitters.

 

Naturally, this has been a good development for left-handed hitters. Across MLB left-handed hitters’ OPS rose 65 points in 2019 from the average LHB vs. LH Reliever OPS from 2010 – 2018. With LOOGYs being pushed to the wayside due to the rule change, managers will be forced to use left-hand relievers that are somewhat more effective against RHBs and therefore likely to be slightly less effective against LHBs.

 

So, what that does this mean for Twins hitters? It could mean that left-hand hitters like Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, and Jake Cave see an additional uptick in production along with switch-hitting Jorge Polanco. Let’s take a look and see what, if any, improvement Twins LHBs saw against LHPs.

 

Download attachment: Lefty wRC+ chart pic.png

 

Pretty encouraging across the board. Part of Polanco’s and even more so Kepler’s breakouts can, at least in part, be attributed to their improvement in hitting southpaws. For his career Kepler has just an 80 wRC+ against lefties so he has definitely taken a big step forward. Rosario has also improved from his career 91 wRC+ vs. LHPs and in a smaller sample size Cave was able to reverse his platoon splits.

 

As a team, the Twins were second to only the Astros in hitting against left-handed pitching (according to wRC+). Minnesota went from a team wRC+ of 90 vs lefties in 2018 (21^st overall) to 126 in 2019. A big part of the improvement was due to Twins righty hitters crushing lefties (Hello Mr. Garver), but Minnesota’s left-handed hitters were able to go from a 92 wRC+ in 2018 to 99 in 2019 even with the loss of Joe Mauer.

 

Considering the performances of right-handed hitters like Mitch Garver, Nelson Cruz, and Miguel Sano it is unsurprising that the Twins crushed lefties, but it is encouraging that the Twins left-handed hitters have shown improvement against southpaws and may very well continue to progress. Just how much is yet to be determined, but it’s nice to see crucial pieces of Minnesota’s core headed in the right direction.

 

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[PDX Twin]

How much of this was just the live ball? Didn't overall OPS rise in 2019 vs. earlier years? Did the L v. L number rise more than the overall number?

[mikelink45]

The over use of RPs means that few teams can have a pitcher only face 1 batter.  Too many innings need to be covered

 

[Blake]

The "three batter minimum" rule will last until managers decide to call a pitch "hard inside" and "accidentally" hit a batter, getting the pitcher ejected.

 

Oops.

[Rosterman]

A stupid stupid rule. If you are using a pitcher for one batter, youa re hurting your opportunities anyway. If a guy just doesn't have it, why let him load the bases. What is the penalty if you don't follow this rule?

[Patrick Wozniak]

 

How much of this was just the live ball? Didn't overall OPS rise in 2019 vs. earlier years? Did the L v. L number rise more than the overall number?

Yeah, OPS did rise overall. According to Baseball Reference it rose from .728 in 2018 to .758 this year. So a significant rise but not nearly as much as the .065 increase for L vs. L relievers.

[Thebigalguy]

It's a dumb rule. I assume they want to speed up the game. For me, baseball is the most exciting sport due to pitcher/batter face-offs. There's already so little for a manager to do. Strategy is everything in baseball. Oh well. I used to care, but things have changed.

[Darius]

I get the sentiment that the rule isn’t ideal. But, what other solutions are there? You can’t have these 4 hour long games in Boston and New York anymore. It’s absurd. Nobody short of a retired empty nester or someone doing it for a living has time to watch a 3-4 hour baseball game on TV on any given Monday night, let alone spend a hundred plus to show up at the game in person.

 

To put it frankly, the vast majority of the people into that kind of baseball are dying off. If they don’t fix it now, the sport will be in trouble. They know it.

 

Same reason why they “fixed” the ball. Like it or not, young prospective fans, even a significant proportion of current fans, just aren’t excited by small ball and 1-0 pitchers duels.

 

I don’t like it, but I understand it.