Front Page: Every Team Wants Zack Wheeler

[Cornholio]

Better than Wheeler, and not from a non-playoff team, where he wasn't the team's best pitcher.

 

Like whom?

It’s just my opinion, but I feel that Wheeler will be a bust. I’m no GM. Cincinnati has pitching, and glaring holes at middle infield and catcher. Padres have holes in the outfield. Miami has young pitching. Blockbuster trades do happen. If the Twins sign Wheeler, I certainly hope he’s successful.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Good point. It sounds much easier until you have to come up with a list of candidates. Although I am a little confused as to if you are saying from a playoff team or a non-playoff team.

 

was sort of quoting the person there.....so maybe i messed it up. Been waaaaaaay too much screen time lately as I work on my first PDF I hope to sell...

[tony&rodney]

Wheeler is available for a draft choice as are a few other decent pitchers this winter. The Twins are likely to see some regression from a couple players ( ? Garver, Cruz), but I think we can see a repeat for others ( ? Rosario, Kepler, Polanco) and improvements from Buxton and Gonzalez ( ? Cron ? ). This is a winter of decision. Trades sound good but it is hard to see why a team would give up on a controlled good starting pitcher. San Diego needs a CF. Would either team trade key combinations of players, such as Buxton-Paddock? Atlanta needs a 3B and C. Would Garver or Sano - Fried plus more work? Cincinnati needs a C and something for the farm. Would they part with Castillo for Garver? Do the Twins want to be moving so many chairs around? This is where it gets really complicated and why Wheeler (and others) are particularly attractive this winter. The Twins have the money this year.

[TopGunn#22]

The reason Wheeler is so intriguing is because he has elite "stuff."  A BIG fastball and excellent spin rate on his slider.  The belief/expectation is that Wes Johnson can unlock much more of that potential than the Mets ever did.  In fact, with the exception of deGrom, guys like Wheeler, Thor, Edwin Diaz etc...have not been used/coached properly by the Mets.  (and this shows how damn good degrom really is).  I get that Cornholio is skeptical, but Wheeler makes waaaay to much sense for the Twins.  Sure, kick the tires on Cole.  He's a bona-fide ACE.  In fact, not just an ACE, but one of the top 3-4 starting pitchers in baseball.  Would I prefer Cole fronting the Twins staff?  ABSOLUTELY !!  But Wheeler at 5-$100 million (or 5-$110 if necessary) is a GOOD signing for the Twins.

[cardsfan]

Wheeler will do well against those sub .500 teams if he stays healthy. But, playoff contenders he will be like 3-7.

[Monkeypaws]

I would make a priority target of this guy, and it appears about 20 GMs agree.

 

• Elite stuff

 

• Great pitcher physique at 6'4", 195.

 

• Not yet 30

 

• For his age he has a pretty fresh arm: he's only pitched 463 innings in the last there years, since his TJ operation, and only 749 in his hole MLB career. For comparison, Bumgarner, who is 9 months older, has thrown 1,846 ML innings.

 

Assuming reports are right and there are 20 teams looking at him, that puts the Twins baseline % of getting him at 5%. An awful lot will have to go right to make it happen, but given the status of the Twins, slight optimism is warranted.

[Battle ur tail off]

If that figure there is correct, the Twins should have had him signed by now. I doubt it is. 

 

I'm not sure who the Twins should sign this offseason. I'd honestly be happy with any of the top 4 guys. Any will improve this rotation and team. 

 

They have to actually do it though. No more lip service, no more "we tried", no more losing out because you sat around too long, no more cheapness. Get something done and don't be left standing at the buffet table after all the meat and potatoes are gone. 

[Physics Guy]

 

I agree, I was more thinking Corbin's AAV. I'm guessing 5 years around 110 million or so.

I originally hoped for 5/$90, but with the number of teams in on him I think your number is probably about right. He shouldn't quite get the same as Corbin.  Wheeler put up a very similar year to Corbin's second to last year in AZ. Corbin's last year in AZ likely got him a little more per year and the extra year on his contract. If you compare Wheeler and Corbin, their stats are quite similar, with Wheeler missing an extra season following TJ surgery. I'm hoping that big season Corbin had prior to FA is what Wheeler has in him after signing with the Twins.

[h2oface]

Wheeler looks like the biggest risk of the FA pitchers to me. Not an ace, AND it seems lucky that he made it through a year where he could actually be on the field the majority of the year. I hope they pass, and get Bumgarner instead. Wheeler is destined for disappointment, and injuries, I think.

[Physics Guy]

For those questioning Wheeler's worth, it appears that you are in the minority.

 

From an ESPN article polling 15 team execs/insiders:

 

"6. Of the second-tier guys, which of these free-agent starting pitchers would you most want your team to sign this winter: Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler or Dallas Keuchel?

 

Survey says: Wheeler 8; Bumgarner 4; Keuchel 2; Three-way tie 1"

 

Here's a link to the entire story:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28160749/hot-stove-survey-mookie-betts-block-gerrit-cole-crack-300m-mlb-gms-insiders-weigh-in

 

Edit:

Okay, so in reading the entire article, there are some detractors.

 

"8. Who is the one player most likely to be overpaid on a big contract this winter?

 

Survey says: Wheeler 4; Grandal 2 (Grandal signed with the White Sox after our survey was complete); Nicholas Castellanos 1; Daniel Hudson 1; 7 respondents declined to answer."

[Mike Sixel]

Over paid, as in they won't be good? Or that they might be worth a few million less? Because those are two different things....

[Physics Guy]

 

Over paid, as in they won't be good? Or that they might be worth a few million less? Because those are two different things....

Yeah, overpaid is subjective. Pretty much any FA top pitcher will be "overpaid", but it's the price of doing business for a team that has failed to develop many SP. The Twins can't afford to shop the clearance rack this offseason. Next year's market looks much weaker.

[Major League Ready]

 

I would make a priority target of this guy, and it appears about 20 GMs agree.

 

• Elite stuff

 

• Great pitcher physique at 6'4", 195.

 

• Not yet 30

 

• For his age he has a pretty fresh arm: he's only pitched 463 innings in the last there years, since his TJ operation, and only 749 in his hole MLB career. For comparison, Bumgarner, who is 9 months older, has thrown 1,846 ML innings.

 

Assuming reports are right and there are 20 teams looking at him, that puts the Twins baseline % of getting him at 5%. An awful lot will have to go right to make it happen, but given the status of the Twins, slight optimism is warranted.

 

He was my choice because he has the best stuff and I would like to think Johnson can help him make the most of that stuff. As a matter of fact, that would be part of my pitch to him. I also had him at the top of my list because of the physical characteristics to pointed out. Guys with this build age better. Maybe I just think this because it makes sense but Verlander, Grienke and others would support this notion.

 

Your point about the other GMs validation is well-taken. They have superior information and a team of people assessing these players. It's a pretty bold assertion that he is a bad bet when so may teams have a high level of interest in him.

[nicksaviking]

I would really like Wheeler, but I don't know that I'd be in agreement that Wes Johnson is likely to unlock something new with him. Wheeler has just spent the past two seasons with Mickey Callaway as his manager and Mickey Callaway was Wes Johnson before any of us had heard of Wes Johnson.

 

I really like Johnson, I think the Twins found a great pitching coach there, but there was a reason Mickey Callaway made the rare leap from pitching coach to manager, he was revered as a pitching guru and he had the results to back it up.

[DocBauer]

I would really like Wheeler, but I don't know that I'd be in agreement that Wes Johnson is likely to unlock something new with him. Wheeler has just spent the past two seasons with Mickey Callaway as his manager and Mickey Callaway was Wes Johnson before any of us had heard of Wes Johnson.

 

I really like Johnson, I think the Twins found a great pitching coach there, but there was a reason Mickey Callaway made the rare leap from pitching coach to manager, he was revered as a pitching guru and he had the results to back it up.

Agree with your thoughts. But will disagree with you from a perspective analysis.

 

The Twins may simply get lucky by signing Wheeler at this time due to experience and stuff coming to fruition as he gets ready to turn 30. Major injury now 2yrs behind him, there is a very good chance his best 3yr+ window is going to open.

 

Additionally, sometimes a change in scenery, that different coach and analytics dept will see just a small tweak or 2 that leads to greater success along with what I mentioned above. You know, 2" over on the rubber, little more this pitch, little less this one, etc.

 

Optimistic on my part? Perhaps. But I think optimism is warranted all things considered. At worst, still a really solid arm.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I also had him at the top of my list because of the physical characteristics to pointed out. Guys with this build age better.

This is fair, but Wheeler’s build is quite the contrast to Pineda’s build.

[nicksaviking]

 

Agree with your thoughts. But will disagree with you from a perspective analysis.

The Twins may simply get lucky by signing Wheeler at this time due to experience and stuff coming to fruition as he gets ready to turn 30. Major injury now 2yrs behind him, there is a very good chance his best 3yr+ window is going to open.

Additionally, sometimes a change in scenery, that different coach and analytics dept will see just a small tweak or 2 that leads to greater success along with what I mentioned above. You know, 2" over on the rubber, little more this pitch, little less this one, etc.

Optimistic on my part? Perhaps. But I think optimism is warranted all things considered. At worst, still a really solid arm.

 

Yeah, don't get me wrong, I don't think that it's a certainty that Wheeler has already peaked, I just don't think that we should be expecting improvement due to our excellent pitching coach as the Mets already had an excellent pitching coach.

[Major League Ready]

 

This is fair, but Wheeler’s build is quite the contrast to Pineda’s build.

 

You are being kind to Pineada. I am amazed, given the dollars involved, professional athletes allow themselves to get so out of shape. You would have to believe the Twins and other teams would be more inclined to sign him to a multi-year deal if he shed some weight.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Agree with your thoughts. But will disagree with you from a perspective analysis.

The Twins may simply get lucky by signing Wheeler at this time due to experience and stuff coming to fruition as he gets ready to turn 30. Major injury now 2yrs behind him, there is a very good chance his best 3yr+ window is going to open.

Additionally, sometimes a change in scenery, that different coach and analytics dept will see just a small tweak or 2 that leads to greater success along with what I mentioned above. You know, 2" over on the rubber, little more this pitch, little less this one, etc.

Optimistic on my part? Perhaps. But I think optimism is warranted all things considered. At worst, still a really solid arm.

Going to a winning team and organization doesn't hurt. The Mets are the bad news bears of the NL east. Granted the Twins have had some stretches too, but they are in the middle of a competitive stretch with young, excitable players that play good defense, can run, athletic, etc. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Step 1 is actually scheduling a meeting with Wheeler.

[nicksaviking]

 

Step 1 is actually scheduling a meeting with Wheeler.

 

I'd think Step 1 is talking to him on the phone, which Wolfson said they did.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Wheeler now has an offer in hand of at least 100mil.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Wheeler now has an offer in hand of at least 100mil.

Yep. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/zack-wheeler-bidding-already-in-nine-figures.html

 

 

IMO, this takes the Twins out of the running. Just too many teams to overbid and we are too cheap. We wanted a tier 1 pitcher, would settle for a tier-2 guy, but get ready folks, tier 3 it is. One step up from the dumpster. That is my prediction. Hope I'm wrong. 

[prouster]

Yep. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/zack-wheeler-bidding-already-in-nine-figures.html

 

 

IMO, this takes the Twins out of the running. Just too many teams to overbid and we are too cheap. We wanted a tier 1 pitcher, would settle for a tier-2 guy, but get ready folks, tier 3 it is. One step up from the dumpster. That is my prediction. Hope I'm wrong.

I don’t see why this would be the case. They offered Darvish $100 million while Mauer’s salary was still on the books.

[Vanimal46]

If the Twins are out on Wheeler I shutter to think what the backup plan is.

[Battle ur tail off]

 

I don’t see why this would be the case. They offered Darvish $100 million while Mauer’s salary was still on the books.

 

And he signed for 126 million. Token offer me boy. 

 

I know some haven't been around for long, but until they do something different. It will always be the same old same old around this team. Johan Santana was offered a hefty contract also, so was Tori Hunter. Problem being it wasn't market value. 

Can a tiger change its stripes? Is this a new front office? Yep, it sure is and for that I will hold out hope. What I expect to happen and what I hope happen though are 2 different things. 

[Major League Ready]

 

I would bet the Twins knew when they got involved that it was going to take $100M. Also, let's not take too much stock in the reported offer. Who knows maybe the offer was 6 yrs at 17M/yr. Maybe it never happened at all.

[Physics Guy]

 

And he signed for 126 million. Token offer me boy. 

 

I know some haven't been around for long, but until they do something different. It will always be the same old same old around this team. Johan Santana was offered a hefty contract also, so was Tori Hunter. Problem being it wasn't market value. 

Can a tiger change its stripes? Is this a new front office? Yep, it sure is and for that I will hold out hope. What I expect to happen and what I hope happen though are 2 different things. 

A cursory look back at the Twins offer was that it was for around $100M, but only five years.  The AAV was pretty similar and in the same ballpark as others.  It appears the Cubs won out because they gave him 6 years.  I would hardly call it a token offer unless you know that they offered it after the Cubs offered 6 years. 

[prouster]

And he signed for 126 million. Token offer me boy.

 

I know some haven't been around for long, but until they do something different. It will always be the same old same old around this team. Johan Santana was offered a hefty contract also, so was Tori Hunter. Problem being it wasn't market value.

Can a tiger change its stripes? Is this a new front office? Yep, it sure is and for that I will hold out hope. What I expect to happen and what I hope happen though are 2 different things.

Teams don’t offer $100 million contracts for optics.

 

And I’ve been a fan since the early 90s.

[cmoss84]

Just thinking out loud here. Feels like the 5/110 prediction many of you have made is about right. 

 

Would you rather OFFER (because ultimately it is up to the player where he wants to sign) that $ on Wheeler, hoping he improves, or offer 6/200 to Cole, hoping he stays the same or does not fall off the cliff? 

 

Basically 22/yr vs 33/yr. with medium to high risk vs. very little risk (yes, I am using my own risk parameters).