Article: If Twins Will Trade Justin Morneau, There's A Way Toward Contention

[one_eyed_jack]

Here's my problem with the various "let's trade Span/Morneau/Mauer/Willingham pitching" problem: the offense is decent, and potentially good, but it won't be anymore if you trade away the guys at the top of the order.

 

Dealing Morneau now is selling low. And selling low as been part of what has gotten the Twins here. They have rarely sold high. They have either sold low (e.g. Delmon and Hardy) or simply let guys walk away (Cuddyer, Kubel, Nathan, Hunter).

[Thrylos]

Dealing Morneau now is selling low. .

 

ok

just some perspective here.

in 2012

 

Justin Morneau hit:

.267/.333/.440, 19 HR, 77 RBI

for the Twins making $14MM

 

and Delmon Young hit:

 

.267/.296/.411, 18 HR, 74 RBI

for the Tigers

 

not that much different.

(speaking of selling low...)

[diehardtwinsfan]

Selling low on Morneau would have been trading him last year at this point. I tend to think his value will only increase as next season goes on, so generally I say keep him until the deadline. That said, if someone were to offer a higer upside minor league pitcher for him, you do it, especially if that means there's an extra 14M available to go out and get one of the better starters out there.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Justin Morneau hit:

.267/.333/.440, 19 HR, 77 RBI

for the Twins making $14MM

 

and Delmon Young hit:

 

.267/.296/.411, 18 HR, 74 RBI

for the Tigers

 

not that much different.

(speaking of selling low...)

 

Since when is an 89 OPS+ "not that much different" from a 113 OPS+?

[gunnarthor]

Dealing Morneau now is selling low. .

 

ok

just some perspective here.

in 2012

 

Justin Morneau hit:

.267/.333/.440, 19 HR, 77 RBI

for the Twins making $14MM

 

and Delmon Young hit:

 

.267/.296/.411, 18 HR, 74 RBI

for the Tigers

 

not that much different.

(speaking of selling low...)

 

Only if you're looking in a vacuum. Let's see what happens if we look at ballpark adjustments and WAR. One was 113 OPS+ and .9 WAR and the other was 87 OPS+ and -1.2 WAR. One has a history of being a good player, one doesn't. One seems to be coming back from injury to become a good player again. The other is a bad player.

[Mike Sixel]

John, I agree.

[one_eyed_jack]

Dealing Morneau now is selling low. .

 

ok

just some perspective here.

in 2012

 

Justin Morneau hit:

.267/.333/.440, 19 HR, 77 RBI

for the Twins making $14MM

 

and Delmon Young hit:

 

.267/.296/.411, 18 HR, 74 RBI

for the Tigers

 

not that much different.

(speaking of selling low...)

 

---I don't see how this is even relevant to anything I said, much less adds perspective.

[Boys of Summer]

So much pie in the sky thinking here. First, Texas is looking to deal Andrus for DAVID PRICE, not saying it will happen but just giving an idea of how far off some thinking is here. Morneau is overpaid for the production he brings at this stage of his career. Also, no one will trade elite, contollable prospects for him. The Pittsburgh idea has no conception of worth or the mentality of the other team. One of the only ones talking sense here is the original author who says give him up for essentially nothing (except to sign a 2nd sp). A good but non-elite AA is probably the best the Twins can obtain. I think (if) the Twins get a AA prospect and are able to sign a second sp @ $14 million it is a good baseball move to trade Morneau.

[kab21]

 

You're obviously right about the one year thing - but Morneau's salary is gone after this year, too. Plus, there are added TV revenues. The Twins are gaining more flexibility, not less, in the next few seasons. Being able to afford one of those contracts in 2013 is by far the biggest barrier.

 

There is zero barrier to signing any of the pitchers in FA. The Twins can spend close to 30M before they hit the 100M with Morneau on the roster. The only real barrier is that you're likely committing big dollars to a declining 30 something starter. I've shown in a recent thread that is not good investment but that doesn't change that the Twins can afford it w/o dumping Morneau.

 

Fair enough. Based on your assumption of Morneau's projected 2013 performance, what should the Twins do after the season and Morneau's contract ends? Compete in the open market to retain his services? Make a qualifying offer and hope he declines and signs elsewhere to obtain a supplemental draft choice?--and what if he does accept said qualifying offer? Any team that has Morneau for the entire season can obtain compensation under the above mentioned conditions. A trade after the season starts--and no compensation if he signs elsewhere. In short, I'm asking is a supplemental draft choice and his services for next season worth more than trading him (personnel recieved and personnel that can be added due to his $14M salary)?

 

1) The first thing I DON'T do is dump him this offseason. John tried to make it sound like he's a player in demand but that just isn't true. He's an avg hitting first baseman with injury issues making 14M. The only way the Twins get a halfway decent prospect (ranked in the Twins top 10-20) is if they pick up at least half of the contract. I'm sorry but that's just silly. At that point you might as well keep him and keep the fans happy.

 

2) To answer all of your other questions. Try to trade him at the deadline if he keeps rebounding. If not then decide if he's worth a qualifying offer or a new (reduced) deal based on his 2013. Maybe you get nothing for him (other than a fan favorite and a solid player for a year) but dumping him AND paying a team to take him would be foolish.

[SenatorsGuy]

Lets trade all of our crappy guys and huge contract guys for all of the the elite, major-league ready prospects in baseball.

[TheLeviathan]

Lets trade all of our crappy guys and huge contract guys for all of the the elite, major-league ready prospects in baseball.

 

Hooray offseason analysis! You just saved us saved us several dozen inane threads! Your work will not soon be forgotten, thank you sir.

[jredasse]

Still not sold on Parmelee at first base.....If they can get a "decent, solid" starter for Morneau, it may be a good move.... but in the mean time, who takes over 1st Base????

Still need some hitting to win some games.......

[RedBull34]

I agree that they might have interest in Span, but in no way is that enough to seal the deal. Just a guess here, but Span, Arcia and Hermsen might do it, but that probably isn't enough.

If this is about trading for Andrus, I would hope the Twins tell the Rangers to pack sand. No way Span and Arcia = Andrus.

[beckmt]

I am more in trading Span and Parmalee to a cost concious team for pitching. We would have to eat some of Morneau's salary and still not get the return we want.

[Danchat]

I am more in trading Span and Parmalee to a cost concious team for pitching. We would have to eat some of Morneau's salary and still not get the return we want.

 

Then why trade away Parmalee if we don't get a return we want? Morneau will be gone after 2013, so why send Parmalee away, who'll likely become a solid 1B? If we're trading Parmalee...we better get someone good. Someone who will be good for awhile with the Twins.

[Brandon]

I think you let Parmalee play RF at the start of next season. if he hits well then he could be a good trade chip. Also if Profar proves he is ready and around July or after next season, there could be a trade potential for Andrus at that time. Parmalee and ? for Andrus.

 

Also if Morneau hits well and stays healthy he will get signed to an extension. His wife is from Minnesota and he is established here why would he want to go somewhere else if he gets paid decently and we are competetive.

[ericchri]

I'm onboard with trading Morneau, but I'm not sure you're getting any value from him right now. I think I'd be inclined to trade him and eat some of his salary for a couple A-ball flamethrowers and hope one of them pans out. Honestly, I think I'd probably be more inclined to hold onto him until the deadline next year to see where things stand in hopes his value increases (or the Twins are in contention). Signing 3 FA pitchers to semi-long-term deals seems almost guaranteed to have one of them bust.

 

Finding playing time for Parmelee means one of Morneau/Span/Revere/Willingham has to go. Or, god forbid, actually using management skills and finding a rotation amongst those 5 plus Doumit and Mauer which gives everybody an occasional game off. I know somebody posted it somewhere on the board previously, but I'm too lazy to look for it. With 3 OF spots, C, 1B, and DH you have 6 positions to fill with 7 players. It wouldn't seem far-fetched to believe you could set it up so each of those guys gets a day off each week instead of jerking Parmelee around (plus you actually have a semi-legit PH option for every game). Then again, I'll be shocked if Span isn't traded this offseason, so the problem goes away (sort of, until Hicks/Arcia are ready).

[Dilligaf69]

texas is looking to find starting catching , why not pawn smokin joe on them for say profar and olt, maybe throw in hermsen and escobar

then trade morneau to toronto with liam hendriks and herrmenn for dárnaud , that would free up 37 million give us a quality left side of the infield and a offensive catcher , with the money we could make a run at grienke and sanchez and still have some jingle in pohlads jeans

 

 

Ok....for the 10 millionth time...the Twins are NOT trading Joe Mauer!!!! and porobably couldn't if they wanted to. Why do people continue to concern themselves with things that have little or in this case likely NO chance of happening. BTW what Sanchez are you talking about...not the one who failed with K.C I hope??

[Dilligaf69]

I agree we probably hang onto Morneau until the dealine and hope he stays healthy and then get a bigger return. Unless they get a great offer this winter this is what probably will happen.

[Dilligaf69]

I agree that they might have interest in Span, but in no way is that enough to seal the deal. Just a guess here, but Span, Arcia and Hermsen might do it, but that probably isn't enough.

If this is about trading for Andrus, I would hope the Twins tell the Rangers to pack sand. No way Span and Arcia = Andrus.

 

 

 

Oh God NO!!!!

[gil4]

While the thread mentioned that even receiving nothing serves as a fine "salary dump", that sort of trade (cf Young or Hardy) is downright foolish.

 

Young? Who is he? (Don't miss him a bit. We won that trade.)

 

The Hardy trade was foolish, not because we dumped the salary, but because we had no viable alternative. After we dumped the salary, we turned around a signed Nishi for slightly less than it would have cost to sign Hardy. It was a major gamble that bombed and left us without a shortstop.

 

First base is usually easier to fill because the defensive demands are much less. I'm not sure what we have in Parmalee, but I think he's a better gamble than Nishi was. Mauer can sub there some. I bet Doumit could as well. I know Willingham is pretty limited defensively, but has he ever played first?

 

If Morneau was a free agent right now, would you give him $14M? I think my answer is no, but i'm not sure.

[Siehbiscuit]

My first question for EVERYONE here is..."How can we address our weaknesses the quickest?"

 

Trading Morneau will NOT get us a great prospect, because his value is too low. He has the potential to become very good again, but the potential to never recover is likely just as high.

 

Quality pitching HAS to be addressed in FA. Span, Willingham or Morneau will not produce elite pitching unless we are willing to wait until 2015 or later to see them.

 

Pitching, middle infield AND even 3B is a bigger priority than doing something with our first baseman. If it was guarnteed that the Pohlads would spend the $14 million on a proven FA then I wouldn't mind a salary dump. History has shown us that the Pohlads don't operate like that. Keep Morneau and hope he can regain his old form to move him at the deadline or to re-sign to an extension. Trading him gets us nothing for 2013.

[Mike Sixel]

Is it more or less likely Ryan spends money on free agent pitching if he has Justin's salary on the books?

[diehardtwinsfan]

Given the needs, trading Morneau or Span for AA pitching is not necessarily a bad idea. It might mean a few 1 year prove it deals over the next year or two, but given the derth of pitching in the high minors, it isn't a bad option.