Twins top 30 by Prospects Live

[biggentleben]

Produced by yours truly.

 

https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/minnesota-twins-2020-top-30-prospects

 

The back end of the system is really quite interesting, and I’m finding the Twins to be one of the 10 or so teams that are a fairly easy top 50 to get names for. Hope you enjoy this one, and I’ll certainly be willing to answer any questions/comments/concerns!

[old nurse]

For those to compare and contrast

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-list/summary?type=0&team=min&filter=&pos=pit,all&sort=-1,1

 

[MMMordabito]

Rortvedt sure has taken a tumble in the rankings.

[gunnarthor]

Prospect ranking season is always fun.

 

One critique, the font you use isn't great. Makes the webpage hard to read. 

 

On the rankings, I'd have Rortvedt  in the top 15. Blankenhorn also seems low. But these are quibbles. Nice job!

[biggentleben]

Rortvedt is an interesting guy. High school catchers are always a risky field, but he’s been fairly “normally” pushed, so how much is development that will still come but might be once he gets to the bigs (catcher is about the only position you could project a player to improve after reaching the majors without sounding too rosy) and how much is truly reduced ceiling.

[biggentleben]

Rortvedt sure has taken a tumble in the rankings.

I’m writing up other systems where he’d comfortably be in the top half. A big part of this is that there has been significant talent added to the organization!

[Diesel]

Edwar Colina has a chance to be a really solid MLB pitcher. It shows the depth of this minor league system that he’s only ranked 29th

[jkcarew]

 

Rortvedt is an interesting guy. High school catchers are always a risky field, but he’s been fairly “normally” pushed, so how much is development that will still come but might be once he gets to the bigs (catcher is about the only position you could project a player to improve after reaching the majors without sounding too rosy) and how much is truly reduced ceiling.

So, you're projecting a major-league catching career for him...but he's outside your top 30?

 

If he were to project as a plus-defense, weak-bat no 2 catcher...I'd have him ranked between 10 and 20...certainly inside the top 30. IMO, a ranking outside the Twins top 30 is justified only if you feel he won't meet that standard. (Last year...catching the same pitchers...Rortvedt threw out over 50% of base-stealers...to Jeffers 26%. IMO, there's as much risk that Jeffers won't catch in the majors as there is that Rortvedt won't hit...and I'd have Rortvedt ranked at least in the general hailing distance of Jeffers.)

[SarasotaBill]

Excellent write up - great job 

[biswrest]

Our Top-Mid rotation prospects seems like the best depth twins have had in a long time.  Colina is your 13th pitcher and he can throw it triple digits with a plus slider!

[biggentleben]

So, you're projecting a major-league catching career for him...but he's outside your top 30?

 

If he were to project as a plus-defense, weak-bat no 2 catcher...I'd have him ranked between 10 and 20...certainly inside the top 30. IMO, a ranking outside the Twins top 30 is justified only if you feel he won't meet that standard. (Last year...catching the same pitchers...Rortvedt threw out over 50% of base-stealers...to Jeffers 26%. IMO, there's as much risk that Jeffers won't catch in the majors as there is that Rortvedt won't hit...and I'd have Rortvedt ranked at least in the general hailing distance of Jeffers.)

I’m not projecting the majors for him, but just the way he’s been moved, he may not develop fully until the majors, IF HE MAKES IT THERE. I believe the FV/PV was a 40/35, which would essentially make him a defense-only backup, but probably not enough bat to work in a 2-catcher split system as is. Once again, that’s not saying he’s all hope lost, but may be settling into less a ceiling role than a floor one.

[beckmt]

Really nice and interesting list.  Shows some of the depth of the Twins system.  Will need to figure out which of these are keepers, which can be traded and which will not make it.  2020 will be a big year in the upper levels of the system.

[biggentleben]

One thing I’ll promote that comes from one of our excellent staff members at PL is the “list view” on the list to get a quick look at grades and risk level assigned to each guy. That’s been something excellent to review on each system so far!

[rdehring]

Rortvedt was hitting very well early in the season, before going down with an injury he played through much of the second half of the season.  The Twins then sent him to the AFL for extra innings, yet, the injury continued to plague him as he was limited to action in only a game or two.  

 

Comparing Rortvedt with Jeffers, both began the season together in Fort Myers.  When one was promoted, Rortvedt was the first to be moved up.  Expect that tells us a lot about what the Twins think of him.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Rortvedt was hitting very well early in the season, before going down with an injury he played through much of the second half of the season.  The Twins then sent him to the AFL for extra innings, yet, the injury continued to plague him as he was limited to action in only a game or two.  

 

Comparing Rortvedt with Jeffers, both began the season together in Fort Myers.  When one was promoted, Rortvedt was the first to be moved up.  Expect that tells us a lot about what the Twins think of him.

 

Jeffers was in his first full season of pro ball, I'd guess that was the main reason for who moved first. but you could be right too....

[bird]

Ben, this is an observation, not a criticism, and I may be seeing something that really isn't there, but here goes:

 

It appears that quite a few of the prospects FanGraphs likes better than you do are guys whose tools aren't terribly loud. Examples would include Wade, Rortvedt, Sands, Miranda, Wallner, maybe Jeffers and Rijo too. Am I seeing things?

 

Terrific product! Thank you.

[Dman]

Ben,

 

Really enjoyed the list.  I can always quibble with rankings but I liked where most guys were placed.  I can tell that someone knows our system when I see guys like Ober in the top 30 and Vallimont rated higher than most other lists I have seen.  

 

Really enjoyed the write ups and felt they were very well done.  For me I would actually be interested in who you think the next 20 players are so a top 50 take is what I would like to see as it shows who just missed the top 30 and who the potential up and comers are.  Very nice job on the top 30 though and thanks for sharing!

[biggentleben]

Ben, this is an observation, not a criticism, and I may be seeing something that really isn't there, but here goes:

 

It appears that quite a few of the prospects FanGraphs likes better than you do are guys whose tools aren't terribly loud. Examples would include Wade, Rortvedt, Sands, Miranda, Wallner, maybe Jeffers and Rijo too. Am I seeing things?

 

Terrific product! Thank you.

That’s also Fangraphs from midseason. They’re just releasing their first list today for the offseason with fully updated grades. I think you’ll see some movement on guys this offseason that are bumped in ours. Again, the depth allows for a very easy top 50! That’s a good thing.

[biggentleben]

Ben,

 

Really enjoyed the list. I can always quibble with rankings but I liked where most guys were placed. I can tell that someone knows our system when I see guys like Ober in the top 30 and Vallimont rated higher than most other lists I have seen.

 

Really enjoyed the write ups and felt they were very well done. For me I would actually be interested in who you think the next 20 players are so a top 50 take is what I would like to see as it shows who just missed the top 30 and who the potential up and comers are. Very nice job on the top 30 though and thanks for sharing!

I have a host written up for “just in case someone is traded” that I’ll list when I get home tonight!

[Seth Stohs]

 

Rortvedt was hitting very well early in the season, before going down with an injury he played through much of the second half of the season.  The Twins then sent him to the AFL for extra innings, yet, the injury continued to plague him as he was limited to action in only a game or two.  

 

Comparing Rortvedt with Jeffers, both began the season together in Fort Myers.  When one was promoted, Rortvedt was the first to be moved up.  Expect that tells us a lot about what the Twins think of him.

 

As Steve Lien reported in during the AFL, Rortvedt had knee surgery, so hopefully he comes back from that strong. He did have a solid first half... 

 

But, the Twins LOVE Jeffers... 

[biggentleben]

 

As Steve Lien reported in during the AFL, Rortvedt had knee surgery, so hopefully he comes back from that strong. He did have a solid first half... 

 

But, the Twins LOVE Jeffers... 

 

That second part is a BIG thing I kept hearing. 

[biggentleben]

 

I have a host written up for “just in case someone is traded” that I’ll list when I get home tonight!

 

The 7 I have written up for extras if the Twins make deals:

31. Rortvedt

32. Luis Rijo

33. Luke Raley

34. Gabriel Maciel

35. Seth Gray

36. Dakota Chalmers

37. LaMonte Wade Jr.

 

I also have Tyler Wells written up as a personal favorite that could slot in as a #30 if multiple guys are moved in order to highlight him.

[gunnarthor]

 

That second part is a BIG thing I kept hearing. 

I admit that Garver's break out has made me more optimistic on Jeffers.

[Yoke]

Dan Hayes wrote: "One industry source said Jeffers is already a top-15 pitch framer in all of professional baseball and that the Twins envision a combination of him and Garver behind the plate over the next few seasons."

 

Seems like they could start splitting time sooner rather than later.

 

 

Article: (have to be subscribed to The Athletic) https://theathletic.com/1387576/2019/11/18/twins-notes-gm-meetings-jake-odorizzi-mitch-garver-free-agents-coaching-staff/

[Lonestar]

#3 60/50 Larnach

#4 60/50 Graterol

#5 55/45 Balazovic

#6 55/50 Duran

#7 55/45 Rooker

 

Maybe I'm just straining at gnats or someone's editing. I was preconditioned to think of Balazovic and Larnach as equivalents since MLB Pipeline ranks them as #76 and #77 among all prospects and #4 and #5 on the Twins' board. As I said before, I would rank Balazovic with or ahead of Graterol based on pitchability (or ability to reach his high ceiling).

 

I am glad to see Duran so high. I don't think I would give him a 55/50 vs Balazovic's 55/45.

 

And I sure wouldn't give Balazovic the same score as Rooker who strikes out too much and has no defensive position.

[biggentleben]

 

#3 60/50 Larnach

#4 60/50 Graterol

#5 55/45 Balazovic

#6 55/50 Duran

#7 55/45 Rooker

 

Maybe I'm just straining at gnats or someone's editing. I was preconditioned to think of Balazovic and Larnach as equivalents since MLB Pipeline ranks them as #76 and #77 among all prospects and #4 and #5 on the Twins' board. As I said before, I would rank Balazovic with or ahead of Graterol based on pitchability (or ability to reach his high ceiling).

 

I am glad to see Duran so high. I don't think I would give him a 55/50 vs Balazovic's 55/45.

 

And I sure wouldn't give Balazovic the same score as Rooker who strikes out too much and has no defensive position.

 

Comparing a pitcher and hitter future value is tough to do. Balazovic made huge strides in 2019, but there's still a lot that could go wrong that would take away his chance to even work in the bullpen. Duran, for me, has a higher floor due to his chance to be a very good reliever as a floor. I argued on a 60 for Balazovic's ceiling, but the talk in the room was heavily on concern about repeating his 2019 strides, which kept his ceiling at the 55 mark.

[biggentleben]

We finally got the Twins podcast recorded and up going over the list. I think you'll enjoy this. Eddy prodded me into it, but I did compare Larnach to some pretty heady company, which is a big reason why I have him #3.

 

Here's the pod for your listening ears: https://www.prospectslive.com/podcasts/2019/12/3/podcast-twins-top-30-breakdown

[terrydactyls]

There are 11 outfielders listed in the 37 prospects (I included Lewis). It seems obvious to me that now is the time to package a couple of them along with Gordon and a pitcher in the 10-20 range for a starting pitcher who Wes Johnson likes.

[biggentleben]

 

There are 11 outfielders listed in the 37 prospects (I included Lewis). It seems obvious to me that now is the time to package a couple of them along with Gordon and a pitcher in the 10-20 range for a starting pitcher who Wes Johnson likes.

 

Issue is finding that on the market. As mentioned on the podcast, I'm not sure Gordon has a ton of value beyond a utility infielder, which he's pretty much ready to become at the big league level, but that's his ceiling. Obviously, the Twins know how valuable a utility guy can be (Adrianza was signed while Cron/Hildenberger/etc. were not), but that doesn't add a ton to a trade.

[biggentleben]

Providing the deal doesn't go under and Graterol gets returned, I chose to have Rijo be the guy to replace Graterol on the list. Here's the write up for him that will be added at #30 when/if the deal is finalized:

 

Luis Rijo

ETA: 2022
Ceiling: 45
Realistic: 30

 

Steady delivery and excellent control could move quickly in 2020

 

Originally signed by the Yankees, the Twins acquired Rijo as part of the return when they sent Lance Lynn to New York mid-season in 2018. Rijo has responded well to the Twins pitching philosophy changes that were implemented with the arrival of Wes Johnson, and that could give him a chance to move up this list.

 

Rijo's frame is filled out at 6'1" and 200 pounds. He's very athletic off the mound and notably has a very good pickoff move. What's notable in his delivery is that he has very long legs and arms for his height, and Rijo employs a high leg lift in his delivery, yet he is able to consistently repeat his delivery, allowing for fringe-plus control now with a chance to improve even further.

 

The work Rijo has done in the new Twins pitching teaching has seen a bump in his velocity from a guy that sat low-90s and bumped 94 MPH to a guy who sits 93-94 and bumps 96 late into games with added life. He transitioned from a pure slow curve to utilizing multiple breaking pitches in 2019, one that is a traditional slow, loop curve, and one that has been classified as both a hard curve and a slider with less depth but a sharper, later break.

 

Rijo's repeatable delivery and improving stuff could allow him to move forward in a hurry, potentially jumping multiple levels in 2020 or 2021 to establish himself at the upper levels before joining the Twins rotation.