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Sign Yasmani Grandal, be open to trading Nelson Cruz if Mitch Garver is for real


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Well, hopefully for a promising young arm. And to extend Garver's career, and to save millions (that could go toward pitching), and to find room for a young bat that is raking in the minors, Rooker, Kiriloff, Larnach or someone like that, or someone looking for a night off in the field (Sano, Kepler, Polanco).

Everyone here thinks Cruz is going to be so valuable in 2020, if that's so, we should be able to get something for him. And hopefully he is much more valuable to another AL team hoping to get in the playoffs and doesn't have the wealth of power hitters we do.

Keep in mind, the goal is to get to the World Series, where Nelson Cruz will only be available in a pinch for 3 or 4 away games. Same for all the intraleague games.

 

None of what you get back will be better than Cruz himself. You won't get a great arm for him. And if it's some kid in A ball? Flat out, I don't care. Draft that guy next year if you must have it. 

 

Save millions that can go towards pitching? Have you looked at what the Twins have available to spend this offseason? It's not the having money, it's the willingness to spend it that has always been the obstacle. 

 

Flat out, Cruz is a damn stud and the anchor of the lineup. The #3 hitter. Teams looking to contend don't move a guy like that for an A ball crapshoot. Especially when he is producing and only on a one year deal. 

 

Plus, why would you want to give another team you may be fighting for or in the playoffs that kind of weapon?

 

 

 

 

 

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But that's not what you're proposing. You're proposing signing Grandal, who will cost more than Cruz, and for more years.

 

You likely end up with a worse batting order, for more money, not less.

 

You might have a worse lineup, but it might only be slightly worse. We don't know Cruz is going to replicate 2020 either. I think everyone is taking that as granted.

 

The value that's added here is the difference between Grandal's positional value (which is exceptional) vs Nelson Cruz's (which is absolutely zero) minus the difference between the value of Grandal's bat vs Cruz's.

 

I'd rather have Grandal than Cruz.

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It's flipping easy to find a 1.000 OPS DH??

 

I'm pretty confident nobody in the Twins organization is contemplating trading Cruz. 

 

I'm also pretty confident Garver's not putting up another .900 OPS season. 

 

Honestly, over the course of his career Cruz might be one of the top 5 hitters of his generation. I'm not moving that guy for anybody when I only have to pay him for one year. 

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You might have a worse lineup, but it might only be slightly worse. We don't know Cruz is going to replicate 2020 either. I think everyone is taking that as granted.

The value that's added here is the difference between Grandal's positional value (which is exceptional) vs Nelson Cruz's (which is absolutely zero) minus the difference between the value of Grandal's bat vs Cruz's.

I'd rather have Grandal than Cruz.

 

Why not look at the 1B position to make this work instead of taking the best hitter out of the lineup? Cruz' salary isn't going to create an OR situation.  It's a one year deal that's very team friendly considering the production.

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It's flipping easy to find a 1.000 OPS DH??

 

I'm pretty confident nobody in the Twins organization is contemplating trading Cruz. 

 

I'm also pretty confident Garver's not putting up another .900 OPS season. 

 

Agree 100% with the first two and while I don't disagree with Garver won't put up 900 OPS in 2020, I would like to think he has a shot at continuing at a very high level. This production started the middle of 18. The suspect part is that he has only had 359 PAs since the middle of 2018. However, take a look at the number below since 7-1-18. 

 

 

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Signing a free agent and then flipping them is a good way to make other free agents not want to sign with your team.

 

And yet, we read all the time that bad teams should take fliers on free agents, and trade them at the deadline. Also, do we have any evidence for this claim? I have never seen any study about this, but one might exist.

 

That said, I don't do this to trade Cruz. I might do it to get a great catcher, and then move Garver to 1B or DH to extend his career. He was a very good minor league hitter, which people seem to be forgetting in most of these thread about him. I argued for a couple years Mauer should move off of catcher, who knows how his last few years go if he doesn't get another concussion (which could still happen outside catcher, but is MUCH less likely).

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They picked up the option on a deal that was signed last year. Cruz had no choice in the matter.

 

They signed him last year.

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They picked up the option on a deal that was signed last year. Cruz had no choice in the matter.

They signed him last year.

If they didn't pick up the option last month he would be a free agent, so yes you are saying sign a guy for 12 million dollars and trade him for a minor league pitcher. Now if you would have said they shouldn't have picked up the option because they could have went out and did what you said it would make more sense. I believe most would have disagreed with that, but NO team picks up a players 12 million dollar option and trades him for a minor league player and rightfully so because he is a horrible idea.

 

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And yet, we read all the time that bad teams should take fliers on free agents, and trade them at the deadline. Also, do we have any evidence for this claim? I have never seen any study about this, but one might exist.

I think it's pretty obvious that a player signing a one-year contract with an non-competitive team has different expectations of their contract than the scenario we're discussing. I've also only heard that idea thrown about on messageboards. I don't hear players and GMs saying it.

 

Off the Cruz topic and onto the trade perspective, it's anecdotal, but I've read dozens (if not hundreds) of interviews of pending free agents saying they're excited to finally be in control of their careers. It's reasonable to assume that means they'd be unhappy if that sense of control is taken away by an immediate trade.

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They picked up the option on a deal that was signed last year. Cruz had no choice in the matter.

They signed him last year.

That's a very literal reading, but it is factually correct. 

 

But it's only been 11 months since he signed, under the same front office and management. 

 

What you see as a vote of confidence in the young bats, I see as a message to the league (e.g. future free agents) that "we don't stand by our commitments" and "we don't have a plan so we're making it up as we go along." As an employee, I would see actions like this to be a serious red flag that it's not a great employment opportunity. Most players want security when they sign free agent contracts as much as they also want to win.

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and yet he (Buxton 5 seasons) is only 2 career WAR behind Aaron Hicks(7 sevens) and is 5 years younger, and us readers are having a hard time getting over that trade.

Since when is Aaron Hicks the benchmark for success?  A .729 lifetime OPS at age 30.  Seven years in the league and he's played in over 100 games twice, he's had multiple injuries and will be on the shelf until about the ASB next year.  So for me?  I am over that trade.  We swung and missed, but it isn't like Aaron Hicks was going to take the starting job from anyone in our outfield (except Buxton).

 

Buxton was supposed to be more than that and, in fact, he is not.   Not yet and we don't even know if will ever happen.

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Don't trade Cruz. I believe Garver is for real on offense. But trading Cruz will significantly weaken this team. I want to win big in 2020. That has a greater chance of happening with Cruz, not Grandal. I could be persuaded to sign Donaldson or Moustakis and move Sano to 1B. But dumping Cruz? No.

 

Sign Gerritt Cole. Leave the lineup to F alone.

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Trading Nelson Cruz -- unless he wants a trade -- would be perceived as disrespect.  It would also be incredibly short sighted and just plain foolish, especially after the leadership he showed with the younger players and the improvement they showed. Cruz is now Sano's mentor. I'd extend him for a year without a second thought. 

 

 

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Sell high. People talk about Garver not repeating last year's performance, but why doesn't anyone worry about that with Cruz.I think he's a regression candidate just as much as anyone else.

 

All I wanna know is if anyone would trade Cruz mid season for a good prospect if Garver maintains his torrid pace, and you had Grandal. I think I would get irritated seeing Garver on the bench, even if I didn't have Grandal and it was only 40 games he was sitting on the bench.

 

But you know it's going to be more than 40 games on the bench for Garver, likely way more.

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Sell high. People talk about Garver not repeating last year's performance, but why doesn't anyone worry about that with Cruz.I think he's a regression candidate just as much as anyone else.

All I wanna know is if anyone would trade Cruz mid season for a good prospect if Garver maintains his torrid pace, and you had Grandal. I think I would get irritated seeing Garver on the bench, even if I didn't have Grandal and it was only 40 games he was sitting on the bench.

But you know it's going to be more than 40 games on the bench for Garver, likely way more.

Unless Cruz totally falls apart, which could happen of course, he's probably worth about the same the end of July as now. So the door isn't closed if they wanted to move him then.

 

But couldn't we also say "sell high" on Garver also?

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Cruz doesn't play any position and costs about $11 million more. Garver can play catcher.

I value Garver over Cruz.

 

That's fantastic, but why not both?  Money isn't an issue with this club right now.  Having Nelson Cruz on your team is better than not having Nelson Cruz on you team plain and simple.

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That's fantastic, but why not both? Money isn't an issue with this club right now. Having Nelson Cruz on your team is better than not having Nelson Cruz on you team plain and simple.

I don't think money isn't an issue. We have 2 out of 5 spots filled in the rotation, and we're looking to lure a big fish ace plus another better than average arm. That's just the rotation, not including the bullpen, you might like to add a premium arm there. Plus you have Berrios and Buxton to extend.

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Since when is Aaron Hicks the benchmark for success?  A .729 lifetime OPS at age 30.  Seven years in the league and he's played in over 100 games twice, he's had multiple injuries and will be on the shelf until about the ASB next year.  So for me?  I am over that trade.  We swung and missed, but it isn't like Aaron Hicks was going to take the starting job from anyone in our outfield (except Buxton).

 

Buxton was supposed to be more than that and, in fact, he is not.   Not yet and we don't even know if will ever happen.

He is not or should not the benchmark, but while you and I may have gotten over that trade, it has been brought up tons of times in TD threads.

 

 

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When all the lights were shining on Grandal in the 2018 World Series and Playoffs (and 2017, too for that matter, they totally went to Barnes after futility toward the end of the season that carried into the playoffs)....... Grandal couldn't hit and couldn't catch the ball (3 passed balls in the NLCS, and that was being generous, as I remember several WP that he should have caught). That is hard to forget. Just like it was for Darvish pitching (in 2017).

 

Crazy to trade Cruz if he continues to hit like he always has and did last year. I don't know how many years he has left, but I am sure glad we have him for 2020. No need to value Cruz over Garver, or Garver over Cruz. We can have them both for 2020 at least. Some (not you) will probably never give Garver his due, and only think he is a fluke, and predict he will not continue to get better, but regress. Time will tell. I have always thought Garver could be the catcher, even when Turner was the darling of many of the writers, and was always being placed ahead of him in their prospect ratings. He is getting better behind the plate, and at the plate. No reason to think he will suddenly start getting worse instead of maintaining in his prime, or improving. And Cruz is an enigma, and lucky for the Twins, he is our enigma for 2020.

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Cruz is the glue that holds our lineup together.  Heck, if he's mashing again next season, I'd consider extending his contract another year.  You never know when his talent will start to slip, but he was a MASHER last year and I believe was a big reason many hitters took a step forward.  He's just a professional hitter.

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Cruz is the glue that holds our lineup together.  Heck, if he's mashing again next season, I'd consider extending his contract another year.  You never know when his talent will start to slip, but he was a MASHER last year and I believe was a big reason many hitters took a step forward.  He's just a professional hitter.

And when your goal is to win it all and you have the present lineup to win it all you don't discard that for a prospect who may or may not help you in 5 years.

 

Sign Cole and Ryu. Keep Cruz.

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When all the lights were shining on Grandal in the 2018 World Series and Playoffs (and 2017, too for that matter, they totally went to Barnes after futility toward the end of the season that carried into the playoffs)....... Grandal couldn't hit and couldn't catch the ball (3 passed balls in the NLCS, and that was being generous, as I remember several WP that he should have caught). That is hard to forget. Just like it was for Darvish pitching (in 2017).

 

Crazy to trade Cruz if he continues to hit like he always has and did last year. I don't know how many years he has left, but I am sure glad we have him for 2020. No need to value Cruz over Garver, or Garver over Cruz. We can have them both for 2020 at least. Some (not you) will probably never give Garver his due, and only think he is a fluke, and predict he will not continue to get better, but regress. Time will tell. I have always thought Garver could be the catcher, even when Turner was the darling of many of the writers, and was always being placed ahead of him in their prospect ratings. He is getting better behind the plate, and at the plate. No reason to think he will suddenly start getting worse instead of maintaining in his prime, or improving. And Cruz is an enigma, and lucky for the Twins, he is our enigma for 2020.

That's fascinating about Grandal. I'd heard he was a good backstop but what you say about him gives me reservations about giving him a big contract.

 

I like Cruz and loved him on the team in 2019, but not so much in 2020. I don't think we have anyone as good as Cruz but this organization is chalk full of talented bats. A number of guys could benefit from those DH at-bats and I think they wouldn't be a big dropoff from Cruz. Garver, Kiriloff, Rooker, then you have the guys who could use a night off like Sano, Kepler, Polanco. I think the production could be close to what Cruz would give.

 

With so many young talented bats in the organization, I have trouble allocating $12 million on a guy who is DH only.

 

Throw that money at Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, Ryu, etc. Everybody thinks we have so much money to spend but it's going to go fast. Try to build a World Series rotation and watch all that money that people think we have so much of disappear in a flash.

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And when your goal is to win it all and you have the present lineup to win it all you don't discard that for a prospect who may or may not help you in 5 years.

 

Sign Cole and Ryu. Keep Cruz.

If Cruz isn't here the our lineup isn't good?

 

You say don't discard for a prospect then you say sign Cole and Ryu. Well Cruz's 12 million would help a lot in that effort, so it wouldn't be for just the prospect, it would also be to allocate the money toward pitching.

 

We got so many qualified candidate who can step in and give close to what Cruz gave you a the plate, but unlike Cruz, they'd add positional value. I'd rather allocate that $12 million to pitching.

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That's fascinating about Grandal. I'd heard he was a good backstop but what you say about him gives me reservations about giving him a big contract.

I like Cruz and loved him on the team in 2019, but not so much in 2020. I don't think we have anyone as good as Cruz but this organization is chalk full of talented bats. A number of guys could benefit from those DH at-bats and I think they wouldn't be a big dropoff from Cruz. Garver, Kiriloff, Rooker, then you have the guys who could use a night off like Sano, Kepler, Polanco. I think the production could be close to what Cruz would give.

With so many young talented bats in the organization, I have trouble allocating $12 million on a guy who is DH only.

Throw that money at Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, Ryu, etc. Everybody thinks we have so much money to spend but it's going to go fast. Try to build a World Series rotation and watch all that money that people think we have so much of disappear in a flash.

Signing Grandal for more millions than Cruz is getting won't help in pursuing high end SP's though. For 2020 give Garver more playing time at C. Sign a cheap backup for Garver that can play a couple of times a week. For years the Twins played the DH by committee game and it didn't work. Sano will likely be our full time DH by 2022, if they can convince him to an extension.

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If Cruz isn't here the our lineup isn't good?

You say don't discard for a prospect then you say sign Cole and Ryu. Well Cruz's 12 million would help a lot in that effort, so it wouldn't be for just the prospect, it would also be to allocate the money toward pitching.

We got so many qualified candidate who can step in and give close to what Cruz gave you a the plate, but unlike Cruz, they'd add positional value. I'd rather allocate that $12 million to pitching.

Based on your proposal to trade Cruz and move Garver to DH and sign Grandal to catch, no the lineup isn't as good. It also set us back financially. Grandal is looking for a longterm deal for 16-18mil per year. Cruz is working for 12mil in 2020. DH by committee by and large does not work as well as one guy, like Cruz, who has embraced the role either.

 

btw, Cole is likely my pipe dream, but he's the best available and who I'd most like to see at the top of our rotation. But will it happen? The old saying is slim and none and none just walked out the door. But I'll repeat it, Keep Cruz.

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If Cruz isn't here the our lineup isn't good?

You say don't discard for a prospect then you say sign Cole and Ryu. Well Cruz's 12 million would help a lot in that effort, so it wouldn't be for just the prospect, it would also be to allocate the money toward pitching.

We got so many qualified candidate who can step in and give close to what Cruz gave you a the plate, but unlike Cruz, they'd add positional value. I'd rather allocate that $12 million to pitching.

You've already allocated that $12M, and then some, for Grandal.

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You've already allocated that $12M, and then some, for Grandal.

Well, signing Grandal might help the pitching staff. But that's a fair point. Either way I don't want to pay $12 million to a DH only 40 year old when the strength of the organization is their bats. Bring up Kiriloff or Rooker, somebody's gonna get hot.

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