Front Page: Eddie Rosario's Actual Value Is an Offseason Sticking Point

[AZTwin]

You can't be suggesting seriously. Are you?

Absolutely am. Eddie is one of the best in the game and those guys are good yet but just prospects. Gore is talented but we have seen countless times how top pitching prospects fizzle. Also SP is losing value as they pitch less and less innings. Trammall is a good prospect but struggled last year. Abrams is pretty far out too

[bird]

 

It’s an absolute disgrace to Eddie who has given so much to the franchise and also a disgrace to Twins fans that value his contribution. If we want to talk about trading him sure but let’s recognize how talented he is and accurately reflect the type of talent he should command in the market. I would fully expect a top 25 prospect in baseball along with other strong prospects for an everyday outfielder with 30+ homers and hits for high average. Players like him don’t come around often. If they’re strong in minors, they’re still likely to fizzle and not meet eddies production. We definitely would need a lot. Plus he’s a great clubhouse guy

 

I think it's great that you're an enthusiast for Rosario. I'd suggest, however, that people who question your valuation of him, and that's probably a majority of us, do not have "an agenda" as you have characterized it. If you think about it, you could be the one accused of being Rosario's dad.  SDP would probably balk at trading Mackenzie Gore for Royce Lewis, let alone Rosario.

 

Baseball teams have probably already put measurements in place that help them place a more meaningful value on high-volatility assets like Rosario. Unless I'm simply unaware of it, we as fans don't yet have fun new arithmetic to answer the questions that make Rosario the subject of such a wide divergence of opinions about his value.

 

How much more value is Eddie producing above and beyond his season-average stats during those stretches when he's sporting a 1.200 OPS? Or conversely, what's the damage when he's giving you a .400 OPS?

 

Highly volatile assets in any other business are known to pose extra risk. The uncertainty that comes with performance volatility from players like Rosario? Maybe we'd have more consensus about him if this uncertainty and randomness of production were factored in.

 

In short, you're not wrong to love and value Rosario, but on one hand, you accuse detractors in 10 threads of being willing to give him away for nothing due to some nefarious agenda, and on the other hand, you want all of us to believe he's worth FanGraph's #5, #27, and #43 prospect? This does not compute, my friend. 

 

[bird]

 

Absolutely am. Eddie is one of the best in the game and those guys are good yet but just prospects. Gore is talented but we have seen countless times how top pitching prospects fizzle. Also SP is losing value as they pitch less and less innings. Trammall is a good prospect but struggled last year. Abrams is pretty far out too

 

Haha, I can't tell you how excited I'd be about this trade!!! Images of Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan are dancing in my head. Think we can get them to give up Luis Patino instead of Trammell or Abrams?

[Kelly Vance]

Im just going to say that I am glad Eddie is a Twin and our clean up hitter. I like watching him bring down the house and golf homers off his ankles. This guy is a difference maker. He makes big plays allatime.

 

Edited by Sconnie

[Sam Morley]

 

Aggressive within the strike zone is great but there are a high percentage of ABs where Eddie swings at a borderline pitch or a pitch outside the zone on the first pitch or even when he is ahead in the count. There is no selection once he gets two strikes. He is swinging. Being aggressive is not helping. Nobody can hit the crap pitchers throw at him now. He is so skilled that he is still able to hit some of those pitches but he would have Yehlich like numbers if he made opposing pitchers give him something in the strike zone. This is frustrating to watch because I can’t help but wonder what we would have in Eddie if he took more professional ABs.

Right. He'd be Yelich or Trout if he was able to be a little more selective. The approach you described is the perfect approach, and if a player with Rosario's natural talent can apply, he's the best player in the league. I don't think it's fair to ask him to be the best baseball player in the world, in order for us to appropriately value his contribution to the team. 

 

Of course a batter ideally wants to be aggressive on pitches in the strike zone, and passive on pitches out of the strike zone. But a batter doesn't know whether the pitch is going to be in or out of the strike zone, and he has a tiny amount of 'time" to "recognize" its type and potential location as it's being delivered. Some batters are good at using information to guess what pitch is coming. Some batters are good at recognition and reaction in the moment. Some batters can just put the bat on the ball. Because batting is so complicated and so many different combination of things can happen in a plate appearance (in a series of plate appearances, for that matter) a strategy is often to simplify. One example of simplifying is never swinging at the first pitch. Another is to only swing at fastballs. Another is swing at just about everything. In each example, some consistency of application is necessary for the simplification to work. If you always take the first pitch, you accept that many first pitches will be called strikes, but you are prepared to capitalize on the ones that are not and enjoy the benefits of being ahead in the count. If you only swing at fastballs, many breaking balls will be thrown for called strikes, but you are playing the odds that at some point you will get a fastball and that by disregarding the breaking balls you will be more ready to damage the fastball. If your strategy is to swing at everything, you accept that many times you will look foolish swinging at pitches out of the zone, and often working from behind in the count, but you are ensuring that when a good pitch to hit is thrown you will not miss it and you are playing the odds that it happens 3-4 out of 10 times. 

 

Oversimplifying leads to exposure. Adjustment is usually needed to stick around, and then balance learned from experience. It doesn't really seem like Rosario is trying to adjust or find any balance. It seems like he is forcing his will on pitchers and continuing to produce despite what should be obvious ways to expose a batter with his approach. Which is amazing. 

 

The Twins 2019 offense was amazing, and Eddie was right in the middle of it. After decades of power impotence, the Twins finally have a lineup of crushers and the guy everyone is going gaga over is a slow running, slap hitting 2nd baseman because he has a good eye. Unbelievable. 

 

The most prolific offense in franchise history. The best record in franchise history. And no seriously helpful moves at the deadline. 

 

Put the same lineup on the field. Sign the best 2 or 3 starters on the market. Forget the bullpen- it's a roll of the dice anyway. 

 

If room needs to be made for Kiriloff, Larnach, or Lewis, maybe keep an eye on the 40 year old DH, the perpetually injured CF, or the fluky, limited 2B.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Mod note:

We’ve already had several debates around Eddie Rosario. In this thread have already been a couple of pet subjects carried over from other threads.

Please keep this thread to subject of the OP.

How does the delta between metrics used by the FO and the metrics used by the arbitrators impact decisions made in regards to Eddie Rosario?

A reminder to all:

Keep to the OP

[Sam Morley]

 

A reminder to all:
Keep to the OP

Right. The OP is pretty good too. I had to reread it to get back on track. 

 

So we like Rosario, but we are afraid arbitrators will over value him based on baseball card numbers, pricing him out of a fair extension offer, thus depriving the team of the value that he does provide and us from watching him provide it. 

 

So should we find a trade partner in anticipation of this over valuation, or should we brace ourselves for the inevitability of having to let him go because of it, and attempt to assuage our disappointment with hopes for prospect realization and tales that he isn't really that good anyway?

 

Well, I say 

 

The money is arbitrary and its not mine, so pay the man! 

 

Twins. Get to know 'em

[ewen21]

 

Absolutely am. Eddie is one of the best in the game and those guys are good yet but just prospects. Gore is talented but we have seen countless times how top pitching prospects fizzle. Also SP is losing value as they pitch less and less innings. Trammall is a good prospect but struggled last year. Abrams is pretty far out too

That  isn't necessarily so.  If you can get a guy who can pitch 7 innings consistently, is economical and can work fast there is lots of value in that because there is scarcity.

To be clear, I am not advocating any particular move involving Rosario, but it is certainly worth a discussion.  Outfield is a place we have what could be considered a surplus and we need pitching.  Are we only to address this issue through free agency?  Is every single player that comes through our system that is good or has potential conscripted to be a Twin for life?

 

It might taking giving up something to get something.  That means risk is involved, but that is what successful teams do.

[AZTwin]

 

That  isn't necessarily so.  If you can get a guy who can pitch 7 innings consistently, is economical and can work fast there is lots of value in that because there is scarcity.

To be clear, I am not advocating any particular move involving Rosario, but it is certainly worth a discussion.  Outfield is a place we have what could be considered a surplus and we need pitching.  Are we only to address this issue through free agency?  Is every single player that comes through our system that is good or has potential conscripted to be a Twin for life?

 

It might taking giving up something to get something.  That means risk is involved, but that is what successful teams do.

This is exactly right.  If a team wants to win now and wants a player that's an established 30+ homer hitter then they will need to give up a lot of prospects (who more often than not, never pan out).   Its a risk, but if a team wants to be successful, then they need to take these types of risks giving up prospects for an established star.

Edited November 17, 2019 by AZTwin

[glunn]

Moderator note -- there has been a lot of discussion in this thread that directly or indirectly characterizes other posters as attacking Rosario. This leads to squabbling and away from discussion of the issues raised bu the original post.

 

This thread is going to be carefully monitored going forward and infraction points will be issued to those who want to continue to squabble about who said what instead of what is true.

[mikelink45]

Nick you wrote an article that has generated four pages of comments so far!  That is excellent, Sconnie I think you can let this continue.  It is the hot stove time and discussions, even arguments are the fuel for the winter - especially until the team takes some actions we can all react and over react to.  But in the mean time, keep pushing us and let the readers push back - I have just had a very fun read going from top to bottom in this posting.  Thank you. 

[Dave The Dastardly]

Setting aside any perceived personal affronts, an interesting discussion. From my own demented viewpoint, if we're discussing Twins trade bait for a No 1 or 2 pitcher, I don't think Eddie is going to cut it. I say dangle Sano out there, higher WAR, and more replaceable given the current Twins roster. Keep Eddie.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Nick you wrote an article that has generated four pages of comments so far! That is excellent, Sconnie I think you can let this continue. It is the hot stove time and discussions, even arguments are the fuel for the winter - especially until the team takes some actions we can all react and over react to. But in the mean time, keep pushing us and let the readers push back - I have just had a very fun read going from top to bottom in this posting. Thank you.

We moderate as a team here at TD, and strive for consistency where ever possible. as long as we discuss the OP and adhere to the comment policy by first and foremost respectful of each other, I think the mod team may be inclined to let this thread continue.

 

Please note, discussing moderation in a baseball thread is considered thread jacking. Keep to the OP.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/8228-twins-daily-comment-policy/?do=findComment&comment=420912

[Nick Nelson]

 

Nick needs to realize that how he says things is as important as what he says. The facts and analysis is good. The condescending attitude is offputting and borderline bullying, imo. A writer should never ever start a rebuttal with an LOL at someone who bothered to read and comment.

This is fair. I didn't mean to come off as condescending, but to see Twins fans deferring to the wisdom of BBWAA was astonishing to me. This is the body that awarded a Cy Young to Bartolo Colon over Johan Santana in '05. They've progressed since then, but not by a whole lot, which was a point made in the article.

 

 

This is like the 10th article that wants to give him away for nothing. If that’s not an agenda I don’t know what is.

Where did the article advocate for giving him away, much less than for nothing? 

[jmlease1]

Eddie Rosario received comparisons to Kirby Puckett, Mike Trout, & Christian Yelich in this thread. (I'm aware that some of those had the caveat that Eddie needed to add walks to deserve that comp, but still) I think that shows the range of how people value Eddie Rosario.

 

I tend to agree with Nick, I'm afraid. The lack of patience and control of the strike zone is problematic for me, especially because players with that tendency often don't age well. Maybe Eddie was nicked up this year, but that also shows the downside to his approach at the plate: if he's not 100% can he be a plus player? When he's going, he looks like he can hit anything. It's fun as hell. But when he's not going there are long stretches where he can't hit anything.

 

I think his overall value is a tough one. he is good in the clubhouse. he does have big moments. he can carry a team for a stretch. But he's also not a consistent player and the low OBP really hurts him. The power is great, his arm is still excellent, and he can play in both corner spots but his routes have not improved and he made more than few routine catches into adventures or botches last season and it's fair to be concerned that his speed may never come back up.

 

He's never been BAD...but overall he's been a pretty average starter for the twins over 5 years. As he gets more expensive, the concerns are real. this is how guys like CJ Cron are ending up on the market. If your over/under on rosario's bWAR is 1.5 do you want to pay that player $6M? What about if it gets to $8M?

 

Frankly CJ and Eddie are players in a similar sort of situation: useful players on a club, but with limitations. They play positions that are some of the easiest to find replacement. Their price is getting more expensive to where if they have a good year, it's worth it, and if they have a bad one...maybe not. Eddie's the better player and younger to boot but this is not a new story.

 

I think the temperature gets hotter around Rosario's future because we've seen him for 5 years, he's been one of our guys for his whole career to date. I'd argue that makes it easier to see him with Rosario-colored glasses for some, but also easier to feel the frustration mount for others. (see also; Gibson, Kyle)

 

 

[Battle ur tail off]

 

It is not an "opinion" to suggest that creating outs at an almost unparalleled rate on offense, and giving up outs at an almost unparalleled rate on defense, are detrimental to winning baseball games. It is statistically proven.

 

Opinions about a player are shaped by what we see and what we remember. The big flashy highlights and bat flips tend to stick in our heads. Which was basically the point of this article. 

 

Correct, but value to a team does not just revolve around advanced metrics.

 

Guess what? Hitting that pinch hit HR WAS valuable! Throwing out that guy in Boston, WON a game. Carrying a team with his bat for week stretches DID happen. That stuff doesn't show up in advanced metrics. 

 

To act as if those thing are just 1 of 1000 or whatever hits or defensive plays, etc that make up a season full of stats isn't seeing the whole picture either. 

 

Joe Mauer was a great example. Just an absolute stat sheet stud! Thing is, I can remember on one hand him having a walk off hit, a game saving play, etc etc. 

 

Rosario is a leader of this team. He is also streaky as hell. When he is streaking the right way, he's one of the best around. When it's going the other direction, he looks lost at times. That said, there is NO ONE in the system that will do a better job in his spot right now. No one. Any of these hotshot prospects will take 2-3 years to get acclimated to the league and having someone like Jake Cave take his spot is just foolish. 

 

Don't extend him. Go year to year until FA hits and see where you are at. Moving him this year for bullcrap is not worth it. If he's used in a package to get you that 2-3 starter? Fine, I'm all for it. But to trade him just to trade him and make room for guys that haven't even really lit up the minors is foolish. 

Edited November 18, 2019 by Battle ur tail off

[big dog]

Back to Eddie- when Sammy Sosa was with the White Sox he had an OPS+ of 92 in his age 21 season. 150 Ks in 579 PAs, and OBP of .282.  I told my friends that if he could ever layoff a two-strike curve ball that was a foot outside, he'd be an all-star.  Two years later with the Cubs he was still the same guy.  Then he figured it out.  He seems to have had some other help later in his career, but plate disciipline was key for him.  Strikeouts didn't get enormously better, but the rate improved a bit and the OBP improved a lot.

 

When Eddie came up, I though if he could just quit swinging at crap, and trying to throw out runners he had no chance at while allowing others to advance, he'd be a really good player for a long time.  The problem for me is that Sosa made the leap between ages 24-26.  Eddie's OBP and OPS+ have decline each of the last two years, and he's 27.  If he's gonna leap, it better be quick. And if he doesn't leap, I don't think we have any reason to hold on to him for much longer.

 

[Riverbrian]

The side discussion on Prospects has been moved to it's own thread in the "Other Baseball" forum. 

[AZTwin]

The side discussion on Prospects has been moved to it's own thread in the "Other Baseball" forum.

Isn’t it relevant in a thread asking what Eddie Rosario value should be? Isn’t the flip side what value others have in comparison to receive a return of a superstar major league player?

Edited November 22, 2019 by AZTwin

[Riverbrian]

 

Isn’t it relevant in discussion about Eddie Rosario trade value and what we should expect in return for a superstar major league player?

 

It certainly is... but not directly anymore. The discussion has started to evolve away from Rosario specifically and I think the subject is interesting so I was hoping that everyone would be able to focus on this discussion in it's own spot. 

 

I believe this debate is important and interesting. 

 

If you want to continue on the Rosario topic... You can and you can still use the points you are making. 

 

In a nutshell, I just believe you started a great separate topic so I started a thread to house it. 

[cardsfan]

I think we will get a pretty fair estimation of his value once we start hearing contract offers for Marcel Ozuna and Nick Castellanos.

What kind of numbers are you getting for Ozuna? Ozuna will frustrate any NL team with his sporadic defense. And his hot and cold hitting as well. Perhaps if your park gives up a lot of HRs. He has a shoulder issue.

 

Castellanos had 88 extra base hits. His defense leaves a little bit to be desired. If he could have another 80 xbh season great though 5 years seems like paying for a couple down years.

[cardsfan]

If you were to trade starting position players that are about to get expensive I would trade those who did well against the teams that lost 89 or more and poorly against the pennant contenders.

 

I think you can win the division title in the worst division in baseball since division play began.

[ashbury]

I think you can win the division title in the worst division in baseball since division play began.

Uh, thank you?

[bighat]

I agree that advanced analytics provide great insight into a player's true value. WAR does matter, as does OBPS and the rest of 'em. That said, just because we are embracing these newish statistical categories, it doesn't mean that the rest goes in the garbage can.

 

A .276 batting average with 32 home runs and 109 RBI? That matters too.

 

Also, let's look at Yasiel Puig and Yadi Molina, who also had 1.2 WAR ratings - same as Rosie. Those two guys are vastly different in what they bring to their respective teams, don't you agree? You can't judge a player based on this stat alone.

[cardsfan]

Uh, thank you?

The Twins were 32-37 playing teams .500 or better. Has a team ever won 101 games or more, but, did so poorly against winning teams? I pointed out if you were going to trade regulars don't trade the ones that did well against winning teams.

 

I hate the Yankees and Red Sox and am always happy when they are beaten in the postseason. Hard to believe a team could lose so many playoff games in a row to the Yankees without getting a little lucky.

[SwainZag]

 

You trade Rosario if the return makes the 2020 Twins better. I can't see that happening but if possible... Yeah go ahead obviously. 

 

Short of that... He will be on the roster in 2020 and he will help us win games. He has talent and he can really really exhibit even more talent if he improves that plate discipline. 

 

The is the most reasonable post in this thread IMO.  Eddie has more value in 2020 to the Twins than what he would get back in return.  There is no one knocking on the door to take his spot right now and he is still a big time thread with the bat.  

[peterb18]

All I know is that he can do three things in baseball that most can do only one or two.

and that is: Steal a base, hit a home run, and throw a runner out. I’ve said this before.

And he has that intangible thing and charisma that all teams need.

 

[Shaitan]

 

All I know is that he can do three things in baseball that most can do only one or two.

and that is: Steal a base, hit a home run, and throw a runner out. I’ve said this before.

And he has that intangible thing and charisma that all teams need.

In another thread today (I forget which one) somebody said he'd be traded midseason. I can't even fathom that. It's obvious from the stands or TV that he's a clubhouse favorite.

[Physics Guy]

 

All I know is that he can do three things in baseball that most can do only one or two.

and that is: Steal a base, hit a home run, and throw a runner out. I’ve said this before.

And he has that intangible thing and charisma that all teams need.

One of these things is not like the others...

Rosario has stolen 36 bases in 5 years and been caught stealing 19 times. Sure, he "can" steal bases, but with that success rate he probably shouldn't be.

[peterb18]

 

One of these things is not like the others...

Rosario has stolen 36 bases in 5 years and been caught stealing 19 times. Sure, he "can" steal bases, but with that success rate he probably shouldn't be.

The point is that he is a good runner which also translates to the outfield.